Slide 1: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
1 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 2: Generalities
ria i) Generalities
Slide 3: Presentation given as a primeur to the Users Group
• This presentation is given as a primeur to the Users Group • A press conference will bestudy Adequacy & Flexibility held in the afternoon 2024-34 • We therefore kindly ask you to not share any information regarding the study before 4PM this afternoon. • A printed version of the report (version fro
Slide 4: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h00-9h15] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h15-10h00] ➢ Adequacy results [10h00-10h40] ➢ Break 15min [10h40-10h55] ➢ Economic viability assessment [10h55-11h15] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h15-11h45] ➢ Ot
Slide 5: Regulatory framework and stakeholder interaction
Regulatory framework and stakeholder interaction
Slide 6: Study based on electricity law requirements and past studies
This study is based on the requirements set in the electricity law and uses the expertise that Elia has developed in its past Adequacy and Flexibility studies APR 2016 JUL 2018 JUN 2019 JUN 2021 JUN 2023 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 6
Slide 7: Extensive stakeholder involvement process
The study followed a very extensive stakeholder involvement process (including a public consultation on methodology and data) Stakeholder feedback Public consultation report & Annexes were already published • Scenario data + complete methodology • 12 non confidential replies received • Study of resi
Slide 8: Main topics: adequacy, flexibility and economics
This study covers 3 main topics related to adequacy, flexibility and economics Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 8
Slide 9: Looking 10 years ahead, simulating 28 countries
We looked 10 years ahead, covering the most important events that will affect the electricity system in the future, simulating 28 countries Electrification (heat, transport, industry) European and coal phase outs targets Main changes that will affect the Belgian and +2.8 GW EU electricity system off
Slide 10: Scenario framework and assumptions
Scenario framework and assumptions
Slide 11: Scenarios aligned with latest figures and ambitions
The scenarios used in this study are aligned with the most recent figures and ambitions of Belgium and other countries • aligned with the recently published draft Regional and Federal Energy and Climate Plan for Belgium, those were anticipated thanks to exchanges with the Regions and DSOs; • data fo
Slide 12: CENTRAL scenario for Belgium
1 CENTRAL scenario for Belgium was constructed (a large number of sensitivities were applied on this scenario) Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 12
Slide 13: Demand & flexibility / Supply & storage
Demand & flexibility Supply & storage Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 13
Slide 14: Electricity load components and flexibility assumptions
The future electricity load is decomposed in 7 components with associated assumptions on flexibility Electricity load Flexibility assumed in the Associated flexibility assumed components CENTRAL scenario* Existing DSR (Market Response) and additional if viable in the EVA. Shares of EV, HP are optimi
Slide 15: Electricity demand expected to increase significantly
Electricity demand is expected to increase significantly in the coming decade, mainly driven by new electrification in industry, transport and heating NORMALISED HISTORICAL AND ASSUMED FUTURE YEARLY TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN THE CENTRAL SCENARIO FOR BELGIUM New Industrial demand, data centers
Slide 16: Earlier and faster uptake of EVs and heat pumps
The uptake of electric vehicles & heat pumps comes earlier and faster - based on the most recent regional and federal ambitions - taking the latest sale numbers into account • AdeqFlex’21 was based on the final NECP 2019 16 • AdeqFlex’23 is based on the known policies in February 2023 (in-line with
Slide 17: Electrification of road transport
Passenger cars are expected to electrify already in the short term, vans, trucks and buses are also expected to electrify with a later timeframe YEARLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORT IN THE CENTRAL SCENARIO Share in stock* in... 2035 = 12.2 TWh 2030 2035 30% 70% 2030 = 7.2 TWh 3% 18% 21% 42%
Slide 18: EV charging modes
EVs are assumed to be charged in various ways. In the CENTRAL scenario: • 2/3 of EVs are expected to be optimised by a local or market signal in 2030 • Almost 100% EVs in 2034 are assumed to follow some form of intelligent charging V0 No flexibility V1H Flex to home V1M Flex to market Operation mode
Slide 19: Evolution of average EV charging profile
The average charging profile of EV is expected to evolve with the increasing share of optimized profiles and evolution of the residual load Amount and shares of each operation mode (CENTRAL) Aggregated average hourly winter profile evolution 12% V2M 3 Daily charging needs [%] 1 V1M 8% V2H 4% V1H 0%
Slide 20: Installed heat pumps increase steadily
The amount of installed heat pumps is expected to increase steadily in the buildings sector ASSUMED AMOUNT OF HEAT PUMPS IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Air-Air (secondary) Air-Air (primary) Ground-Water Air-Water Sensitivities Tertiary sector is also accounted for (around 150k in 2030 and 230k in 2035) H
Slide 21: Heat pump operation modes
HPs are assumed to be operated in various ways. In the CENTRAL scenario: - 1/3 of HPs are expected to be optimised by a local or market signal in 2030 - 2/3 of HPs are optimised by 2034 HP0 No flexibility Flex to home: Operation modes HP1H Fixed input times-series HP1M Flex to market: Dispatched by
Slide 22: Evolution of heat pump consumption profile
The average hourly consumption profile for HP is also expected to evolve Amount and shares of each operation mode (CENTRAL) Aggregated average hourly winter profile evolution HP1M HP1H HP0 HP1M Smart heating Flex-to-market: Dispatched by the model HP1H Pre-heated profile Local flex: Fixed input time
Slide 23: Uptake in industry and data centres
The uptake in industry and data centres is confirmed by the latest information that Elia has on connection requests and estimates regarding load evolution BREAKDOWN OF THE ASSUMED INDUSTRIAL DEMAND INCREASE FOR BELGIUM IN THE CENTRAL SCENARIO Sensitivities 1Y-2Y acceleration 1Y-2Y-3Y-4Y delay Adequa
Slide 24: Industrial load increase limited by flexibility
The industrial, data centres and electrolysers load increase is limited when accounting for the assumed flexibility of newly electrified processes ASSUMED EVOLUTION – ADDITIONAL NOMINAL CAPACITY AND FLEXIBILITY FROM NEW INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES IN THE CENTRAL SCENARIO [MW] New industrial load increase W
Slide 25: Impact of high prices and market response
• The estimated impact of high electricity prices on the consumption is accounted for. • Existing volumes of market response are taken into account. • In addition, a potential additional volume is identified for each time horizon. The impact of high average electricity prices on the consumption is e
Slide 26: Sensitivities on consumption and flexibility
A large number of sensitivities are performed on the expected consumption evolution and associated flexibility for Belgium DSR POT 26 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 27: Demand & flexibility / Supply & storage
Demand & flexibility Supply & storage Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 27
Slide 28: Thermal capacity assumptions
Thermal capacity is based on the official closures, extension and already CRM contracted new capacities EVA EVA performed on existing Nuclear thermal capacities and new capacities New CCGT Sensitivities FLEX LTO Nuclear avail. in winter 25-26 DELAYED LTO Nuclear extension later than 26-27 HIGH NuFO
Slide 29: Accelerated integration of renewables in Belgium
Accelerated integration of renewable energy sources in Belgium, in-line with latest regional and federal ambitions Evolution of installed solar capacity Sensitivities +880 MWp/year HIGH RES LOW RES 14 500 MWp by 2030 HIGH OFFSH LOW OFFSH Evolution of installed onshore wind capacity Evolution of offs
Slide 30: Large-scale and small-scale batteries capacity
Large-scale batteries capacity is based on existing and already contracted capacity, complemented with additional capacity if economically viable. Small-scale batteries capacity follows solar PV evolution. Large-scale batteries 2.47 Potential nominal new capacity Up to ~2.5 GW by 2030 (depending on
Slide 31: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 31
Slide 32: European scenario framework based on ERAA22
The European scenario framework of this study is based on the ERAA22 dataset complemented with more recent data (if available) and follows the ERAA methodology Only 1 representative risk is chosen for the EU- SAFE scenario 32
Slide 33: Renewables growth and coal phase out in Europe
Accelerated integration of renewable energy sources in Europe Coal phase out planned in Europe 2022 - 2030 x5 x2 RES x3 2022 - 2030 COAL -67 GW 33 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 34: Storage and new capacities for reliability standard
Expected evolution of storage and new capacities to comply with the reliability standard in each country STORAGE NEW CAPACITY ADDED 34 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 35: French nuclear availability in winter
French nuclear availability during winter has strongly decreased since 2015 DAILY FRENCH NUCLEAR AVAILABILITY DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY SINCE 2015 35 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 36: French nuclear unavailability underestimated
The unavailability of French nuclear units was found to be underestimated in the past 6 years. The impact is assessed through the ‘FR-NUC’ sensitivities. AVERAGE FORECASTING ERROR OF THE FRENCH NUCLEAR UNAVAILABILITY OVER THE PAST 6 WINTERS (BASED ON REMIT DATA) 4 EU-SAFE EU-BASE ≈13 Assumed after 2
Slide 37: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 37
Slide 38: Flow-based modelling for Core region
Flow-based is modelled for the Core region and assumptions capture the expected market design and grid infrastructure evolutions The bidding zones are assumed to remain as defined today for all future time horizons. The flow-based perimeter considered is Core for all time horizons (BE, FR, DE+LU, NL
Slide 39: Flow-based domains for exchanges
Exchanges within/with Core countries are modelled with flow-based domains PROJECTION OF ONE OF THE MULTI-DIMENSIONAL FLOW-BASED DOMAINS FOR 2026 • Elia uses flow-based domains since 2015 in its adequacy studies given the central position of Belgium • 41 dimensional domains • Exchanges are accurately
Slide 40: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 40
Slide 41: Gas and CO2 price assumptions
Prices follow the World Energy Outlook (2022, IEA) "Announced Pledges" scenario on the long term and forward prices where available ASSUMED EVOLUTION OF GAS AND CO2 PRICES Gas €2022/MWhHHV €2022/tCO2 CO2 41 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 42: Price cap follows ACER HMMCP rules
The price cap follows the latest ACER HMMCP rules (01/23) and is dynamically calculated for each of the draws in the EVA The price cap increase is taken into account when calculating revenues of the units for the EVA - the price cap increase is taken into account as from the start of the simulated h
Slide 43: More assumptions available in the report
More assumptions and information can be found in the report - For existing and new capacity: - CAPEX, - FOM, - Hurdle rates, - VOM, - Construction times - Price assumptions for coal, nuclear and lignite - Ancillary services revenues, - Revenues from heat and steam, - Activation costs for flexibility
Slide 44: Study meets European requirements (1/2)
This study meets the adopted European requirements and goes beyond what is planned to be implemented by ENTSO-E in the coming years (1/2) 44 ERAA: European Resource Adequacy Assessment Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 45: Study meets European requirements (2/2)
This study meets the adopted European requirements and goes beyond what is planned to be implemented by ENTSO-E in the coming years (2/2) 45 ERAA: European Resource Adequacy Assessment Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 46: Adequacy Methodology
lia | “ Adequacy Methodology
Slide 47: Adequacy methodology in line with ERAA
The adequacy methodology used is in line with the ERAA methodology. Hourly simulations are performed on several hundreds of ‘Monte-Carlo’ years. Monte Carlo years New forward looking climate database (200 climate years) • The adequacy methodology is fully compliant with the ERAA methodology • The am
Slide 48: Monte-Carlo years simulated to reach convergence
For each scenario/sensitivity, a large amount of Monte-Carlo years are simulated in order to reach convergence of the relevant indicators Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 48
Slide 49: Iterative process to determine needs or margin
An iterative process is performed to determine the needs or the margin for Belgium to meet the adequacy criteria Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 49
Slide 50: Adequacy GAP versus non-viable GAP
The adequacy assessment aims to determine the GAP while the EVA aims to calculate the non viable GAP GAP = additional capacity 100% available needed Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 50
Slide 51: Adequacy Results
lia | AT Adequacy Results
Slide 52: Short-term EU-BASE and EU-SAFE scenarios
On the short-term, EU-BASE and EU-SAFE scenarios are determined based on nuclear availability information from EDF forecasts. Several sensitivities were assessed regarding Belgian electricity consumption. Belgian normalised yearly total electricity Yearly France nuclear generation forecast consumpti
Slide 53: Enough capacity for next winters
For the next 2 winters, Belgium is expected to have enough capacity to comply with its reliability standard. Only one scenario (EU-SAFE combined with a Rebound consumption) exhibits a need for capacity (100 MW) in 2024-25. Yearly France nuclear generation forecast 2023-24 2024-25 53 Adequacy & Flexi
Slide 54: 2025 GAP of 2 GW in EU-SAFE
In 2025, while a margin is still foreseen in the EU-BASE scenario, a GAP of 2 GW is identified in the EU-SAFE scenario Note that no nuclear generation in Belgium is assumed for winter 2025-26 in the CENTRAL scenario. 54 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 55: Need for new capacity in most scenarios
A need for new capacity is foreseen in all simulated scenarios, except in EU-BASE for 2026. The need grows until 2029 and then stabilizes until 2032, with commissioning of additional ICs. In 2029, the GAP is expected to reach 1800 MW in EU-BASE and 2900 MW in EU-SAFE. 55 Adequacy & Flexibility study
Slide 56: GAP in 2025 and electrification impact
1 In 2025, a GAP of 2 GW is found 2 Electrification in Belgium and in Europe leads to an increase of the GAP 3 The GAP is expected to stabilize with the commissioning of major projects impacting Belgium 56 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 57: Need on top of nuclear extension and CRM units
A need for new capacity is foreseen in all simulated scenarios/sensitivities, except in EU-BASE for 2026. This need is calculated on top of the nuclear extension and new units contracted in CRM auctions. The chosen representative sensitivity for the EU-SAFE is the FR-NUC4. 57 Adequacy & Flexibility
Slide 58: Scarcity correlated with neighbouring countries
• On the short-term, scarcity in Belgium is mainly correlated with France. • For later years, the correlation of scarcity events with other countries increases: first with Germany, then with Great-Britain and finally with the Netherlands. SIMULTANEOUS SCARCITY EVENTS BETWEEN BELGIUM AND ITS NEIGHBOU
Slide 59: Distribution of scarcity events over the day
In the future, the scarcity events will tend to be less concentrated during the daily peaks and more spread around it, leading to longer scarcity events on average How are scarcity events distributed over the day ? 1 1 2 2 Note that in an adequate scenario (LOLE = 3h), the 1 Reduction of morning / e
Slide 60: Differences with AdeqFlex'21
Several changes can explain the differences with AdeqFlex’21. Increase in Belgian electricity consumption can explain most of the differences Unlocking flexibility and commissioning new grid infrastructure will be key. Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 60
Slide 61: Consumption sensitivities on the GAP
Different sensitivities were performed on the electricity consumption. Depending on the electrification trajectories from the different sectors, an increase or decrease of the GAP can be observed. 2028 2030 2034 2028 2030 2034 2028 2030 2034 2028 2030 2034 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 61
Slide 62: End-user flexibility sensitivities
• CENTRAL scenario regarding end-user flexibility already considers a significant share of flexibility from EV, HP and residential batteries • Unlocking higher flexibility or having lower flexibility in the system has a 1300 MW range impact on the GAP in 2030 (from LOW FLEX to HIGH FLEX) 62 Adequacy
Slide 63: Industry flexibility in CENTRAL scenario
A significant share of flexibility from industry is already integrated in the CENTRAL scenario 63 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 64: Batteries and DSR potential versus GAP
• In 2025, developing the identified potential of large-scale batteries and DSR (700 MW) is not sufficient to cover the GAP identified in the EU-SAFE scenario (2000 MW). • In 2030, the identified potential of large-scale batteries and DSR could reduce the GAP respectively by -700 MW and -1200 MW. 64
Slide 65: Belgian nuclear availability sensitivities
Several sensitivities were performed regarding Belgian nuclear availability • ‘Flex-LTO’ sensitivity considers Doel 4 and Tihange 3 available as from 2025-26, reducing the GAP by 1700 MW for this time horizon • The other way around, a ‘Delayed-LTO’ would increase the GAP by the same amount as from 2
Slide 66: Grid project delay sensitivities
• A delay of the Gramme-Rimière project would prevent the commissioning of Flémalle CCGT • Any delay on future grid infrastructure will result in a significant impact on the GAP as from 2030. 66 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 67: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h00-9h15] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h15-10h00] ➢ Adequacy results [10h00-10h40] ➢ Break 15min [10h40-10h55] ➢ Economic viability assessment [10h55-11h15] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h15-11h45] ➢ Ot
Slide 68: Adequacy Main results
lia | AT Adequacy Main results
Slide 69: GAP in EU-SAFE with flexibility and interconnections
The CENTRAL scenario already assumes that: - 70% of newly electrified industry is assumed to be able to be reduced at times of scarcity - 2/3 of EVs and 1/3 of HPs are assumed to exhibit some level of intelligent charging - Grid development projects are realized as assumed in the CENTRAL scenario (T
Slide 70: Summary of adequacy results
Summary of adequacy results SUMMARY OF THE GAP IN THE EU-SAFE/CENTRAL SCENARIO Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 70
Slide 71: Economic Viability Assessment Methodology
Economic Viability Assessment Methodology
Slide 72: What is the Economic Viability Assessment?
What is the Economic Viability Assessment (EVA)? Will the Belgian reliability standard be met without ‘market’ intervention (i.e. no CRM)? The EVA is a complex but crucial analysis which allows us to answer this question. Elia’s EVA in particular: - was co-developed in close collaboration with acade
Slide 73: Iterative approach to find EVA equilibrium
Following an iterative approach an EVA equilibrium is found. EVA process Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 73
Slide 74: EVA process to a converged result
The EVA process: how do we end up with a converged result? ‘in-the-market’ means 'capacity was not activated in this iteration' Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 74 ‘out-of-market’ means ‘capacity was activated in this iteration'
Slide 75: Sign of a converged EVA simulation
A sign of a converged EVA simulation is that no more capacity is marked for addition/removal. ‘in-the-market’ means 'capacity was not activated in this iteration' Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 75 ‘out-of-market’ means ‘capacity was activated in this iteration'
Slide 76: Economic Viability Assessment results
Economic Viability Assessment results
Slide 77: EVA sensitivities studied
Multiple sensitivities for the EVA are studied in this years’ Adequacy and Flexibility study. + 2 sensitivities with additional "in the market" capacity * * *Will be discussed now (rest is presented in the report) Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 77
Slide 78: Existing and new capacities assessed in the EVA
Existing and new capacities were assessed in the EVA Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 78
Slide 79: Limited viability of large-scale batteries
Only a limited amount of Large-scale batteries are economically viable if only EOM revenues are relied on However, it should be noted that the estimated net Where do batteries get their revenues from in the EVA? revenues might in certain cases turn out to be higher due to; • Activation of balancing
Slide 80: EU-BASE BEnoCRM capacity changes
In EU-BASE BEnoCRM some TJ and OCGT leave the market, new DSR and batteries (1h) enter the market [MW] nominal [MW] nominal 80 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 81: Non-viable GAP from 2028 in EU-BASE
A non-viable GAP remains as of 2028 in EU-BASE, BEnoCRM [MW] derated [MW] derated the Belgian reliability standard (under the assumptions taken) is not respected 81 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 82: EU-SAFE BEnoCRM capacity changes
In EU-SAFE BEnoCRM some TJ and OCGT leave the market, new DSR and batteries (1h) enter the market [MW] nominal [MW] nominal 82 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 83: Non-viable GAP from 2025 in EU-SAFE
A non-viable GAP remains as of 2025 in EU-SAFE, BEnoCRM [MW] derated [MW] derated the Belgian reliability standard (under the assumptions taken) is not respected 83 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 84: Reliability standard without market intervention
What is the Economic Viability Assessment (EVA)? Will the Belgian reliability standard be met without ‘market’ intervention (i.e. no CRM)? No, the EVA showed that for Belgium, under the assumptions taken and without intervention: – A non-viable GAP remains as of 2028 in the EU-BASE scenario (and as
Slide 85: Flexibility: Context, methodology and data
Flexibility Context, methodology and data
Slide 86: Definition of flexibility
Definition of flexibility “The extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in response to variability, expected or otherwise” - International Energy Agency 2011 Adequacy study Flexibility Study The adequacy study investigates the The flexibility study investigates
Slide 87: Context of adequacy and flexibility studies
Adequacy & Flexibility Context 2017 - 2027 In 2016, Elia published the first adequacy and flexibility study. The flexibility analyses focused on : • Setting the scene : definition of flexibility and analysis of the residual load variability APR • Determining Elia’s balancing capacity needs towards 2
Slide 88: Methodology overview
Methodology overview The flexibility study complements Elia’s economic dispatch simulations, based on a perfect forecast assumption and hourly resolution, with an assessment of the short-term flexibility needs to deal with fast and unexpected variations of generation and demand after day-ahead. 88 A
Slide 89: Flexibility needs assessment metrics
Flexibility Flexibility Flexibility 1 needs reservations means The flexibility needs assessment is build around three metrics applied on historic time series of prediction errors of demand and generation, as well as forced outages of generation and transmission assets prediction errors + forced outa
Slide 90: Flexibility needs during scarcity risk periods
Flexibility Flexibility Flexibility needs 2 reservations means The flexibility needs during scarcity risk periods are included in the adequacy simulations to ensure that the system has the capacity installed to deal unexpected variations, also during scarcity risk periods Link with balancing reserve
Slide 91: Flexibility means determination
Flexibility Flexibility Flexibility needs reservations 3 means The flexibility means are determined based on simulated day-ahead schedules of individual hourly generation, storage and demand response units • This allows to determine total available flexibility for each hour and Monte Carlo simulatio
Slide 92: Data and assumptions
Data and assumptions Input data Scenario selection Prediction data Elia’s forecast observations 2020-2021 Expected forecast improvements Target years Scenario Onshore wind Offshore wind 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Demand Decentral Needs Solar must-run CENTRAL Existing Planned generation fleet and
Slide 93: Flexibility: Results and conclusions
Flexibility Results and conclusions
Slide 94: Evolution of flexibility needs towards 2034
Evolution of the flexibility needs towards 2034 Latest analyses re-confirm increasing flexibility needs following increasing renewable capacity 2nd wave of offshore generation By 2034, the Belgian system will require • 6 - 7 GW of flexibility in the last hours before real time, • of which almost 3 G
Slide 95: Available flexibility covers needs if unlocked
If the system is adequate, and new flexibility is Flexibility per technology which can be delivered in 15’ under optimal conditions, i.e. on units dispatched at minimum or maximum power unlocked, sufficient flexibility will be installed to cover the flexibility needs 6.5 1. 1 Available flexibility i
Slide 96: Operational availability of flexibility means in 2034
Operational availability of flexibility means in Belgium in 2034 relies on capacities of which the flexibility must be unlocked 4718 MW 5221 MW Note that this concerns a scenario where additional adequacy needs are covered with DSR and CCGT. • For both upward and downward side, operational availabil
Slide 97: Evolution of available flexibility means to 2034
Evolution of operationally available flexibility means towards 2034 without upfront reservations* *Other than the dimensioning incident during scarcity risk periods • Ramping flexibility can be guaranteed up to 98% • Ramping flexibility can be guaranteed up to 89% • Fast flexibility can be guarantee
Slide 98: Upward flexibility needs covered towards 2034
In the CENTRAL and HIGH FLEX scenarios, upward flexibility needs toward 2034 can almost always be covered without upfront reservations Share of time [%] in 2034 that flexibility needs are covered with moderate cross-border flexibility • Towards 2034, upward flexibility needs are expected to be cover
Slide 99: Downward flexibility requires additional measures
Downward flexibility requires additional measures to avoid issues with incompressibility with the further uptake of PV volumes across Europe. Share of time [%] in 2034 that flexibility needs are covered with moderate cross-border flexibility • Towards 2034, downward flexibility needs are inadequatel
Slide 100: Sensitivities on uncovered flexibility needs
Results of the sensitivities on uncovered flexibility needs • The sensitivities on the liquidity within the EU balancing energy platforms (providing more cross-border ramping and fast flexibility) show a clear contribution of additional liquidity • Even without liquidity constraints during normal co
Slide 101: Benefits of unlocking end-user flexibility
Unlocking end-user flexibility creates substantial benefits for society in terms of ‘Flattening the curve’ and ‘System operation’ Flattening the curve System operation Low electrification, digitalization and Low FLEX market reform CENTRAL- Limited or slow electrification, digitalization and market r
Slide 102: Value of flexibility for the system towards 2034
Value of flexibility for the system towards 2034 Unlocking new flexibility towards a “HIGH FLEX” scenario is estimated to bring substantial gains in terms of adequacy and system operation costs compared to a “LOW FLEX” scenario 1. System operation cost savings Gains M€ / year 2026 2028 2030 2032 203
Slide 103: Enablers
We expect 0.8 million EV chargers in We expect almost 5 million smart Enablers Belgium by 2030 with a gradual uptake of bi-directional chargers as meters in Belgium as from 2030 with already an uptake of 80% (almost 3 from 2028 million) in Flanders as from 2024 Central-scenario In order to make thes
Slide 104: Main messages and Elia's call for action
Main messages and Elia’s call for action ➢ Provided that the Belgium system is adequate and that new flexibility is unlocked : • The increase in Elia’s reserve needs can be reduced from a factor 2 to a factor 1.3; • The volume of mFRR balancing capacity to be procured by Elia can be reduced to almos
Slide 105: Additional insights
ria | A, Additional insights
Slide 106: Share of RES in European system to increase
The share of RES in the European system is expected to significantly increase over time in order to cover the need related to electrification. 106 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 107: CO2 intensity of European electricity mix
The direct CO2 intensity of the European electricity mix is calculated to be around 100 gCO2/kWh in 2030, in-line with expected levels to be Fit for 55 RES-E SHARE AND CO2 INTENSITY OF THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 107
Slide 108: Electrification benefits for CO2 emission reduction
Additional electrification delivers large benefits in terms of direct domestic CO2 emission reduction DIRECT DOMESTIC CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE BELGIAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM ACCOUNTING FOR THE OFFSETS DUE TO ADDITIONAL ELECTRIFICATION IN OTHER SECTORS Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 108
Slide 109: Main messages
ia Main messages
Slide 110: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 110
Slide 111: Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034
Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034 111
Slide 112: Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034
Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034 112
Slide 113: Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034
Adequacy & Flexibility for Belgium 2024-2034 113
Slide 114: Short-, medium- and long-term measures
Equal attention must be paid to short-, medium- and long-term measures 2025-2026 Short-Term measures • Flex-LTO of 2 Belgian nuclear unites 2027-2029 Medium-Term measures • Unlocking new flexibility • Prompt realisation of grid infrastructure • Refinement of the CRM mechanism • Managing periods of e
Slide 115: AdeqFlex'23 study in numbers
AdeqFlex’23 is a state-of-the-art study assessing the capacity requirements of the Belgian system both for adequacy & flexibility 12 target years (2023-34) assessed 28 countries simulated for each analysis Report content • Executive summary 270 references/sources used • Introduction • Methodology 30
Slide 116: Thank you very much for your attention
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION • This presentation is given as a primeur to the Users Group • A press conference will be held in the afternoon • We therefore kindly ask you to not share any information regarding the study before 4PM this afternoon. • A printed version of the report (version
Slide 117: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 117
Slide 118: Thank you
lia THANK YOU