Slide 1: 2027 IRP TAC Meeting No. 3 Agenda
2027 Electric and Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plans Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 3 Agenda Thursday, November 20, 2025 Virtual Meeting – 2:00 pm to 4:30 pm Pacific Time Topic State Audience • Introduction and Questions from TAC 2 • Future Climate Analysis All E&G, Dist. • Washington N
Slide 2: Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning
Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning TAC 3 – November 20 , 2025 John Lyons, Ph.D. – Senior Resource Policy Analyst
Slide 3: TAC Agenda
TAC 4 Agenda • Introduction and Questions from TAC 2, John Lyons • Future Climate Analysis (All), Mike Hermanson • Washington Non-Pipe Analysis (WA), Cadmus and Avista • CCA/CPP Discussion, Janna Dubnicka and Michael Brutocao • Natural Gas-Fired Heat Pump Technology (All), Reuben Arts • (Moved to TA
Slide 4: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines • IRP team is in office Monday – Wednesday; also available by email, phone and Teams for questions and comments • Stakeholder feedback responses shared with TAC at meetings, in Teams and in Appendix • Working IRP data posted to Teams • All TAC meetings will be virtual on Teams • D
Slide 5: Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders
Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders • Please mute mics unless speaking or asking a question • Raise hand or use the chat box for questions or comments • Respect the pause • Please try not to speak over the presenter or a speaker • Please state your name before commenting for the note taker • This is a pub
Slide 6: Answers to Questions from TAC
Answers to Questions from TAC • Difference in Named Community population from the Department of Health Map Version 1 to Version 2 – See next slide • Adding natural gas and electric coordination presentation to TAC 4, January 21, 2026 • Natural gas disconnect question about work orders for meter remo
Slide 7: Named Communities Populations – Updated
Named Communities* Populations – Updated Avista Electric Residential Households (as of Q4 245,564** 2024) 2021 CEIP 2025 CEIP Washington State Department of Health (DOH) DOH V1 2019 DOH V2 2022 Highly Impacted Communities 15,157 + 19,610 Vulnerable Populations 43,010 + 6,967 Both HIC & VP 47,700 + 1
Slide 8: 2025 Natural Gas IRP – Customer and Load Growth
2025 Natural Gas IRP – Customer and Load Growth Washington – Existing Residential Households Washington – Existing Single-Family Households 7
Slide 9: TAC 4 and TAC 5 Schedule
TAC 4 – Wednesday, January 21, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PST) Topic State Audience Market Overview ad Price Forecast All Gas Wholesale Electric Price Forecast WA/ID Electric Sub-Hourly Modeling WA/ID Electric DER Forecast Impact on Distribution System WA Dist. Cost of Carbon (SCC, Allowances, CCI) WA E&G
Slide 10: TAC 6 and TAC 7 Schedule
TAC 6 – Monday, March 16, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Wholesale Price Forecast – Stochastic WA/ID Electric Wholesale Market Price Scenarios WA/ID Electric All-Source RFP Update WA/ID Electric Economic Forecast and Five-Year Load Forecast All E&G TAC 7 – Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (1
Slide 11: TAC 8 and TAC 9 Schedule
TAC 8 – Monday, April 20, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Conservation Potential Assessment All E&G Demand Response Potential Assessment All E&G TAC 9 – Friday, May 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience IRP Generation Option Transmission Planning Studies WA/ID Transmission
Slide 12: TAC 10 and TAC 11 Schedule
TAC 10 – Wednesday, May 27, 2025 (9:00 – 12:00 PDT) Topic State Audience CEIP Update WA Electric CETA Interim/Energy Compliance Report WA Electric Load Forecast Update All E&G TAC 11 Technical Modeling Workshop – Monday, June 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience PRiSM Model Tour All E&G
Slide 13: TAC 12 and TAC 13 Schedule
TAC 12 Wednesday, July 15, 2026 (TDB) Topic State Audience Load & Resource Balance and Methodology WA/ID Electric Loss of Load Probability WA/ID Electric WRAP Update WA/ID Electric Draft Preferred Resource Strategy Results All E&G ETO Energy Savings OR Gas TAC 13 – Monday, August 17, 2026 (13:00 – 1
Slide 14: TAC 14 Schedule
TAC 14 – Thursday, September 17, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Portfolio Scenario Analysis All E&G Avoided Cost All Electric Resource Adequacy Results WA/ID Electric CBI Forecast and Results/Energy Burden WA/OR E&G Final Report Overview and Comment Plan All E&G Action Items All E&G E
Slide 15: Other Key Dates
Other Key Dates • Oct 15, 2026 – Draft Electric IRP Released to TAC • Nov TBD 2026 – Virtual Public Meeting • Noon-1pm • 6-7pm • Jan 1, 2027 – Final Electric IRP Filed • Feb 15, 2027 – Draft Gas IRP Released to TAC • Apr 1, 2027 – Final Gas IRP Filed 14
Slide 16: IRP Climate Change Analysis
IRP Climate Change Analysis Forecasted streamflow and temperature changes for 2027 IRP Analysis Mike Hermanson, Senior Power Supply Analyst Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Planning Manager 2027 IRP TAC 3 - November 20, 2025
Slide 17: Overview
Overview • Data sources and methodology • Hydrogeneration analysis • Temperatures analysis for peak electric • Temperatures analysis for natural gas peak and energy 2
Slide 18: Data Sources
Data Sources • Climate and Hydrology Datasets for RMJOC Long-Term Planning Studies: Second Edition • River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC) - BPA, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Bureau of Reclamation • Research Team - University of Washington, Oregon State University • Part I – Unregulat
Slide 19: Global Climate Models
Global Climate Models • Global Climate Models (GCMs) • Coarse resolution ranging from 75 to 300 km grid size • Provides projections of temperature and precipitation, and other meteorological variables (wind) • Multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5) • 10 GCM models used in
Slide 20: Representative Concentration Pathways
Representative Concentration Pathways • Description by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • RCP2.6 – stringent mitigation scenario • RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 – intermediate scenarios • RCP8.5 – very high GHG emissions • RMJOCII Study evaluated RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 • RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 have a simila
Slide 21: Downscaling Techniques
Downscaling Techniques • Downscale GCM data to finer resolution necessary to model hydrology • Statistical methods to represent variation within large grid size Typical GCM • Two methods used (BCSD, Grid Size MACA) - Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation - Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog •
Slide 22: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration • Hydrologic models • Downscaled temperature and precipitation is input to hydrologic models. • Hydrologic models use soil, geology, slope, vegetation, aspect, snow cover, etc. to model how precipitation translates into runoff and streamflow. • 2 di
Slide 23: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration 8
Slide 24: 2027 IRP Hydrogeneration
2027 IRP Hydrogeneration • BPA selected 19 of the 80 scenarios that encompass a sufficient range of uncertainty. • Two regulated river flow data sets utilized: • 1995-2025 uses actual generation data from each project • 2025-2049 used climate change river flows. • Median of 19 BPA selected scenarios
Slide 25: Results
Results • Forecasted annual average generation is greater than actual generation in both Spokane and Clark Fork Systems 10
Slide 26: Results
Results • Clark Fork system greater in the winter/early spring months • Spokane system forecast is greater in all months, following a very similar pattern as actuals 11
Slide 27: Climate Change Temperatures for Load Forecast
Climate Change Temperatures for Load Forecast • Data: • Spokane – RMJOCII study temperatures • Klamath Falls – MACA Compilation by University of California Merced • La Grande - MACA Compilation by University of California Merced • Medford - MACA Compilation by University of California Merced • Roseb
Slide 28: Comparison of Actual Temp to Modeled Temps
Comparison of Actual Temp to Modeled Temps • Summer actual daily temperatures higher than models and winter actual daily temperatures equal to or lower than models 13
Slide 29: Comparison of Actual Temp to Modeled Temps
Comparison of Actual Temp to Modeled Temps • Each chart depicts the actual annual min and max day along with the annual min and max day for each of the 18 climate scenarios used in the RMJOCII study. 14
Slide 30: Peak Electric Load Forecasts – Temperature Data
Peak Electric Load Forecasts – Temperature Data • This IRP we are not using discrete modeled values in our peak load forecast, rather we are using rate of change over the forecast period 2025-2049. • The process is: • The discrete modeled temperatures are input into a regression equation that calcul
Slide 31: Peak Electric Load Forecasts – Temperature Data
Peak Electric Load Forecasts – Temperature Data 16
Slide 32: Temperature in Distribution System Planning
Temperature in Distribution System Planning • Evaluate the linear relationship between load and temperature to form a 1 in 10 load for each of 570 transformers and feeders. • Develop 24-hour curves to identify peaks • Run power flow scenarios to identify if there are specific feeders with inadequate
Slide 33: Winter Peak Day – Spokane
Winter Peak Day – Spokane 2026 2050 (16.4) (14.9) 1968 (16.5) 18
Slide 34: Winter Peak Day – Klamath Falls
Winter Peak Day – Klamath Falls 2026 2050 (7.0) (6.2) 2013 (7.0) 19
Slide 35: Winter Peak Day – La Grande
Winter Peak Day – La Grande 2026 2050 (10.0) (9.0) 1996 (10.0) 20
Slide 36: Winter Peak Day – Medford
Winter Peak Day – Medford 2026 2050 4.5 4.8 1972 4.5 21
Slide 37: Winter Peak Day – Roseburg
Winter Peak Day – Roseburg 2026 2050 10.5 11.1 1990 10.5 22 Optional footer for data sources, etc.
Slide 38: Temperatures – Annual Growth Rate
Temperatures – Annual Growth Rate Month Spokane Klamath Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg January 0.11% 0.10% 0.13% 0.08% 0.07% February 0.22% 0.14% 0.17% 0.10% 0.10% March 0.17% 0.09% 0.11% 0.07% 0.07% April 0.03% 0.10% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% May 0.10% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% June 0.11% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07%
Slide 39: Annual Cooling Degree Days – Spokane
Annual Cooling Degree Days – Spokane 24
Slide 40: Annual Heating Degree Days – Spokane
Annual Heating Degree Days – Spokane 25
Slide 41: Annual Heating Degree Days – Klamath Falls
Annual Heating Degree Days – Klamath Falls 26
Slide 42: Annual Heating Degree Days – La Grande
Annual Heating Degree Days – La Grande 27
Slide 43: Annual Heating Degree Days – Medford
Annual Heating Degree Days – Medford 28
Slide 44: Annual Heating Degree Days – Roseburg
Annual Heating Degree Days – Roseburg 29
Slide 45: IRP Climate Change Approach Summary
IRP Climate Change Approach Summary • Using RCP 4.5 • Description by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - RCP2.6 – stringent mitigation scenario - RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 – intermediate scenarios - RCP8.5 – very high GHG emissions • RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 are similar in IRP planning horizon • Regiona
Slide 46: Washington Non-Pipe Analysis
Washington Non-Pipe Analysis TAC 3 – November 20, 2025 Terrence Browne, Principal Gas Planning Engineer Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Planning Manager
Slide 47: UE-24006 & UE-24007 – Corrected Final Order
1UE-24006 & UE-24007 – Corrected Final Order 08 - Avista “As such, the Commission orders Avista to conduct two NPA analyses on natural gas distribution projects related to customer growth for any potential projects that exceed $500,000 using the criteria otherwise adopted above. The Commission order
Slide 48: Airway Heights, Spokane WA
Airway Heights, Spokane WA Industrial Customer existing 100 Mcfh expanding to 320 Mcfh 3
Slide 49: Airway Heights, Spokane WA
Airway Heights, Spokane WA R G R R Uprate proposal: $500-750k Industrial Customer reg station R existing 100 Mcfh uprate to 500 psig expanding to 320 Mcfh 4
Slide 50: Airway Heights, Spokane WA
Airway Heights, Spokane WA R G R R Possible reinforcement: $1MM/mile ~5000-8000 feet Uprate proposal: $500-750k Industrial Customer reg station R existing 100 Mcfh uprate to 500 psig expanding to 320 Mcfh 5
Slide 51: South Hill, Spokane WA
South Hill, Spokane WA i AIVISTA
Slide 52: South Hill, Spokane WA
South Hill, Spokane WA • Rationale: approximately 1700 customers at risk • Desired reduction: approximately 260 therms/hour • Cost of pipeline reinforcements: $250,000 • Recommended CNG injection sites shown (#1 and #2) 7
Slide 53: Dishman Mica, Spokane WA
Dishman Mica, Spokane WA AIVISTA
Slide 54: Dishman Mica, Spokane WA
Dishman Mica, Spokane WA • Rationale: approximately 240 customers at risk • Desired reduction: approximately 40 therms/hour • Cost of pipeline reinforcements: $30,000 to $50,000 • Recommended CNG injection site shown (#3) 9
Slide 55: CNG Deployment
1 ne ping low pressure areas AIVISTA
Slide 56: Avista Non-Pipeline Alternative Analysis
Avista Non-Pipeline Alternative Analysis November 20, 2025
Slide 57: Agenda
Agenda Non-Pipeline Alternative Overview Scenario Definitions Cost Assumptions Results
Slide 58: Non-Pipe Alternative (NPA) Overview
Non-Pipe Alternative (NPA) Overview Two at-risk areas with the coldest temperatures to maintain minimum Design NPA delivery pressure of 15 psig. Study Objectives Customers: ~21,900 total, ~1,700 at risk Develop gas demand South Hill Constraint: 258.9 therms/hour reduction scenarios area 1,036 therms
Slide 59: NPA Approach
NPA Approach Area Selection Building NPA Impact NPA Cost Data Stock Analysis Characterization Analysis • Customer sales and counts • Segment and end-use load • Retrofit savings calculations • Incentive and program costs • Peak distribution constraints disaggregation • End-use hourly load • Lost reve
Slide 60: NPA Scenarios
NPA Scenarios Measure adoption ramp rates from the gas energy efficiency study (Council Baseline ramp rates) and moderate electrification adoption assumptions and demand response program participation assumptions. Incentives = full installation cost Increase the baseline scenario with faster Council
Slide 61: Scenarios Inputs
Scenarios Inputs Baseline Accelerated Least Cost LO/Retro1Slow LO/Retro3Slow (slightly Removed EE Ramp Rate: (slowest ramp rate) accelerated ramp rate) EE Max Applicability: 85% 85% Removed 10% per year 20% per year Optimized ramp rate DR Only Ramp Rate: for each area 18% (Res) 18% (Res) 18% (Res) D
Slide 62: Cost Assumptions
Cost Assumptions Incentives set at full measure installation costs. Demand response Measure Costs measure costs reflect equipment and incentive estimates based on the Council Draft 9th Plan workbooks Program setup assumes 0.5 FTE per territory, per sector. O&M and Program/ marketing costs are assign
Slide 63: Results
Results
Slide 64: South Hill
South Hill Avista South Hill Territory Target and Projected Reduction Accelerated Least Cost Target Therm Savings during Peak 2026 2027 2028 2029 Baseline 2030
Slide 65: South Hill
South Hill Target Year 2029 Target Period Winter 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. Target Therms (4-hour total) 1,036 Expansion Cost $250,000 Target Year Impacts Baseline Accelerated Least Cost NPA Achievement 582 1,148 1,068 NPA Acquisition Cost $5,980,000 $12,300,000 $1,030,000 Net Commodity Impacts $73,400 $143,
Slide 66: Dishman Mica
11 Dishman Mica Avista Dishman Mica Territory Target and Projected Reduction 300 250 Accelerated = © & £ aso Least Cost 5 nel 2 150 Target & Baseline E 100 Oo = - 50 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Slide 67: Dishman Mica
Dishman Mica Target Year 2029 Target Period Winter 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. Target Therms (4-hour total) 154 Expansion Cost $30,000-$50,000 Target Year Impacts Baseline Accelerated Least Cost NPA Achievement 76 151 154 NPA Acquisition Cost $1,060,000 $2,070,000 $351,000 Net Commodity Impacts $9,300 $18,200
Slide 68: Thank You
Thank You Aquila Velonis Jeremy Eckstein Principal Senior Associate Aquila.Velonis@cadmusgroup.com Jeremy.Eckstein@cadmusgroup.com Jordan Decker Associate Jordan.Decker@cadmusgroup.com
Slide 69: Appendix: Additional Slides
Appendix: Additional Slides
Slide 70: NPA Measures: Residential
NPA Measures: Residential # Measure Bundle Measures Included 1 Space and water heating electrification • Space heating electrification (CCHP) (no efficiency or load control) • Water heating electrification (HPWH) 2 Load control only • Space heating direct load control (DR) (no efficiency measures) •
Slide 71: NPA Measures: Commercial
NPA Measures: Commercial # Measure Bundle Measures Included 6 Space heating electrification • Replacement of furnaces or RTUs with CCHPs (electrification, buildings with furnaces or RTUs only) • Replacement of room heat with PTHPs (electrification, buildings with room heat only) 7 Load control only
Slide 72: Building Counts and End-Use Consumptions
Building Counts and End-Use Consumptions South Hill Dishman Mica Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Buildings Buildings Buildings Buildings Buildings Buildings Single Multi- Single Multi- with with with Room with with with Room Family family Family family RTUs Furnaces Heat RTUs Furnaces
Slide 73: Bundle Share Ramp Rate
Bundle Share Ramp Rate EE Max Applicability: 85% DR Max Applicability: 9.5%-18% 18
Slide 74: Bundle Share Ramp Rate
Bundle Share Ramp Rate EE Max Applicability: 85% DR Max Applicability: 9.5%-18% 19
Slide 75: Bundle Share Ramp Rate
Bundle Share Ramp Rate DR Max Applicability: 9.5%-18% 20
Slide 76: Energy Use and End-Use Estimates
Energy Use and End-Use Estimates Resulting end-use consumption checked against total consumption by segment. 21
Slide 77: Demand Response Assumptions: Benchmark Summary
Demand Response Assumptions: Benchmark Summary Benchmarked data show savings from load control setpoint adjustments (typically 3 to 4 degrees) over 4- to 6-hour winter morning event period starting at 6 a.m. or 7 a.m. Residential savings are typically 0.1 to 0.7 therms/event; C&I savings are 100+ th
Slide 78: Measure Detail Assumptions: Residential
Measure Detail Assumptions: Residential Baseline Baseline NG Efficiency Measure End Use Building Type Baseline Equipment Consumption – Consumption – Gain South Hill Dishman Mica GasHeat - Heat Gas FAF Single Family n/a Federal Standard 2016 Furnace - 80% AFUE 625 therms 533 therms Standard 2015 and
Slide 79: Measure Detail Assumptions: Commercial
Measure Detail Assumptions: Commercial Baseline Baseline NG Efficiency Measure End Use Building Type Baseline Equipment Consumption – Consumption – Gain South Hill Dishman Mica Load control only (no efficiency Heat - Gas FAF Commercial n/a Federal Standard 2016 Furnace - 80% AFUE 9,443 therms 6,175
Slide 80: Efficiency and Electrification Measure Assumptions
Efficiency and Electrification Measure Assumptions Efficiency Improvement Measure Bundle Full Cost for End-Use Residential Space and water heating 100% removal of gas end-use Space heating: $6,700-$18,700 electrification consumption (electric backup) Water heating: $2,300 Weatherization 17%-22% $2,7
Slide 81: Demand Response Assumptions
Demand Response Assumptions Space Heating Water Heating Single Family Multifamily Commercial Single Family Multifamily Total Impact (therms/event)* 0.5 0.4 25 0.24 0.20 Event Hours 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. * The event is applied and then refined to avoid (1) event shift that exceeds end use demand in event
Slide 82: Washington State Climate Commitment Act
Washington State Climate Commitment Act TAC 3 – November 20, 2025 Janna Dubnicka, Clean Energy Policy & Implementation Manager
Slide 83: Climate Commitment Act Purpose & Application
Climate Commitment Act Purpose & Application 1“The Climate Commitment Act (CCA) caps and reduces greenhouse gas emissions from Washington’s largest emitting sources and industries, allowing businesses to find the most efficient path to lower carbon emissions. This powerful program works alongside ot
Slide 84: Climate Commitment Act Basics
Climate Commitment Act Basics • The statute requires the Washington Department of Ecology (Ecology) to set a programmatic baseline for emissions covered by the Cap-and-Invest Program • Based on 2015-2019 emissions baseline • Covered and opt-in entities for natural gas and electric • Ecology must als
Slide 85: Climate Commitment Act Basics
Climate Commitment Act Basics • What is the emissions baseline (2015-2019) and how was it determined? • Prior to Cap-and-Invest, CCA and other recent landmark climate regulations, greenhouse gas reporting was (and is) required for specific entities: • 2012: required reporting for emitting specific s
Slide 86: CCA Primary Components
CCA Primary Components “…The provisions of the cap and invest program implemented by this chapter Cap establish a declining cap on GHG emissions • Limits carbon across major sectors of the from covered entities consistent with the economy and any “opt-in” businesses limits established in RCW 70A.45.
Slide 87: The Basics of Cap and Invest
The Basics of Cap and Invest • The cap and invest program is a trading program. • The commodities traded in the program are compliance instruments. • Two types of compliance instruments: • Allowance – may be given to specific industries based on their emissions either at no cost or purchased via oth
Slide 88: Auction Basics
Auction Basics • 1Quarterly Auctions • Held by Ecology on a third-party platform • Bids are submitted similarly to a silent auction • Qualified bidders may submit multiple bids at various price levels between the floor and ceiling price structure • 2Allowance Price Containment Reserve Auctions • Sep
Slide 89: Historic Pricing
Historic Pricing Program Auction Pricing (cost per 1 MT CO2e) Year Auction Floor Ceiling Settling APCR Price Price caps are a compliance tool to meet programmatic emissions reductions goals Q1 $ 48.50 Q2 $ 56.01 2023 $ 22.20 $ 81.47 $ 51.90 Floor: price for all allowances below which bids Q3 $ 63.03
Slide 90: Electric
Electric • Jurisdictional Allocation: • Washington (approximately 65% of portfolio) Ecology grants free (no-cost) • Free allowances for all generation portfolio emissions serving Washington customers allowances covering • Covered: regulated Washington based plants (Boulder); all Washington share of
Slide 91: Natural Gas
Natural Gas • No-cost allowances cannot be sold or traded to other entities. Must be used for compliance or consigned (sold) in quarterly auctions. • Natural gas utilities are required to consign a portion of no-cost allowances under RCW 70A.65.130. 10 Table Source: Natural gas utility consignment s
Slide 92: Natural Gas Allowance Consignment Requirements
Natural Gas Allowance Consignment Requirements • Consignment Revenues: All revenues shall be used for the benefit of customers, as determined by the WUTC, including at a minimum eliminating any additional cost burden to low- income customers from the CCA. • Revenues must be returned to customers - N
Slide 93: Natural Gas Allowance & Consignment Costs
Natural Gas Allowance & Consignment Costs Natural Gas CCA Year-Over- Consigned No-Cost Year Emissions Delta Year Allowance Revenues Liability Increase 2023 $44,443,884 $36,896,188 $7,547,696 - 2024 $30,385,861 $19,965,465 $10,420,396 38% 2025* $51,925,536 $36,419,248 $15,506,288 49% 2026* $71,272,85
Slide 94: Expected Natural Gas Allowance Need
Expected Natural Gas Allowance Need 13 Source: Avista 2025 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan
Slide 95: On the Horizon
On the Horizon • Linkage • Link with established markets in California and Quebec (2026-2027) • The most recent linkage agreement comment period ended in March of 2025. Ecology has stated another period will be available upon development of a new linkage agreement draft. Image Source: Washington Dep
Slide 96: On the Horizon
On the Horizon • Washington Ecology • October 2025: information public comment period for Cap-and-Invest Program Updates and Linkage Rulemaking • Cap-and-Invest Allocation Workshop (11/13) - Seeking comments on increasing percentage requirements for allowance consignment - Changes to mitigation of a
Slide 97: Oregon Climate Protection Program
Oregon Climate Protection Program TAC 3 – November 20, 2025 Janna Dubnicka, Clean Energy Policy & Implementation Manager Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Planning Manager
Slide 98: Oregon Climate Policy
Oregon Climate Policy Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) actions: • 2021: Initially adopted Climate Protection Program (CPP) • 2023: Rule amendments; adopted language • 2024: Revised and adopted CPP (OAR 340-273) • Program compliance to begin in 2026 for emissions year 2025 (Jan 1- De
Slide 99: Present-Day Objectives
Present-Day Objectives “The CPP establishes a declining cap, or limit, on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels used throughout Oregon, including diesel, gasoline, and natural gas. The program is designed to reduce these emissions by 50% by 2035 and 90% by 2050” How does this rule apply to Avis
Slide 100: Climate Protection Program
Climate Protection Program OAR 340-273 Adopted November 22, 2024 Purpose: “….to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sources in Oregon, achieve co- benefits from reduced emissions of other air contaminants, support a strong statewide economy, and enhance public welfare for Oregon Communities, partic
Slide 101: Climate Protection Program
Climate Protection Program How does Avista meet the objectives of the CPP? • Compliance is based around CCI’s or Community Climate Investments • CCI’s are expected to be made available to entities in early 2026 • Credits are a single price • No auction or similar requirements as seen in Cap-and-Inve
Slide 102: Climate Protection Program
Climate Protection Program How does a regulated entity meet their obligation requirements? 1. Reduce emissions profile 2. Purchase compliance instruments to bridge the gap between distribution totals • limited quantity distributed annually 3. Earn CCI credits by contributing funds to DEQ- approved C
Slide 103: CPP Compliance by Compliance Period
CPP Compliance by Compliance Period 22 *CP 1 data consists of actual and forecasted emissions (2025) and 2025 Natural Gas IRP (2026-2027).
Slide 104: Natural Gas-Fired Heat Pump Technology
Natural Gas-Fired Heat Pump Technology TAC 3 – November 20, 2025 Reuben Arts, Manager Energy Efficiency Engineering
Slide 105: How do Gas Heat Pumps (GHPs) Work?
How do Gas Heat Pumps (GHPs) Work? • Heat pumps in heating mode are effectively air conditioners running in reverse • Extracting heat from outdoors and moving it indoors • There are Engine-driven GHPs and Gas Absorption GHPs. • Engine – driven GHPs use a natural gas engine in place of the electric m
Slide 106: Gas Absorption Heat Pump Basics
Gas Absorption Heat Pump Basics 3 Optional footer for data sources, etc.
Slide 107: Gas Absorption Gas Heat Pumps for Residential
Gas Absorption Gas Heat Pumps for Residential Ongoing Pilots – Residential • Residential GAHP Pilot • 3 single-family homes implemented the Anesi Gas Absorption Heat Pump - Each unit is 80,000 BTU/hr (~23 kW) - Supply up to 140 °F hot water - Manufacturer reported efficiency of 141% AFUE • Applicati
Slide 108: Avista Take Aways from Fortis Pilot
Avista Take Aways from Fortis Pilot • Prices are coming down but remain high for the moment ($30k range for combined HVAC and Water Heater) • The price remains high due in part to long install times (up to 3 days) • Training for technicians remains an issue • The unit itself is very heavy (500lbs) •
Slide 109: Bottom Line
Bottom Line • Residential Gas Heat Pump technology is proven, and it reduces green house gas emissions compared to the most efficient natural gas furnaces and hot water heaters. • The adoption of this technology is hampered by the high capital cost and lack of a cooling feature. • The market for thi