Tryg A/s · OMXCOP:TRYG
Tryg A/s — Barclays Global Financial Services Conference 2017
19 slides from Tryg A/s's conference presentation, Sep 11, 2017
Slide 1: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference New York – 11 September 2017 Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR Christian Baltzer, Group CFO
Slide 2: Probably the most profitable European insurer…
Probably the most profitable European insurer… Combined ratio 2007-2016 • Tryg:DC (Bloomberg) or TRYG.CO (Reuters) is a leading Scandinavian non-life insurer and one of the few European insurance stocks offering 100% non-life exposure • Tryg has a 10 years average CR just below 89% and ROE just belo
Slide 3: Scandinavia vs. the rest of the world
Scandinavia vs. the rest of the world Corruption Index Cost Norway Insurers’ perception DKK vs. UK (IBM, 2007) 1. Denmark GDP per capita (USD): 89,818 2. Finland • Overall I am very satisfied with the 3. Sweden Average Salary: EUR 3,405 services of my insurance company 4. New Zealand 5. Netherlands
Slide 4: Business overview
Business overview Gross premium split by products 2016 Business split 2016 Percentage Percentage Norway Market position: #3 Market share: 13.3% Sweden Market position: #5 Market share: 3.0% Retention rate – Private segment High insurance penetration in the Nordics Denmark Market position: #1 Premium
Slide 5: Investment case in a nutshell
Investment case in a nutshell 5 years combined ratio and standard deviation Standard deviation of investment return (%) Solvency ratio development Tryg is a dividend stock 5
Slide 6: Tryg vs. Euro insurers since IPO (total return)
Tryg vs. Euro insurers since IPO (total return) 600 400 200 0 TRYG DC Equity SXIP Index 6
Slide 7: Financial highlights Q2 2017
Financial highlights Q2 2017 - Improved technical result, lower investment income, pre-tax result slightly below Q2 2016 - Q2 dividend of DKK 1.60 per share and solvency ratio of 209 Pre-tax profit (DKKm) • Pre-tax profit of DKK 915m (DKK 934m) driven by: • Higher technical result of DKK 810m (DKK 7
Slide 8: Group premiums up 2.0% in Q2
Group premiums up 2.0% in Q2 Group premiums were up 2.0% in local currencies, Private lines DK and of Skandia child book key drivers Danish business growing nicely while Norwegian business still declining Private lines increased 1.4% in particular driven by a positive development in Private Denmark
Slide 9: Private - average prices
Private - average prices House insurance – average price (index 2011 = 100) Average price development Y/Y 1.7% 2.5% (Q1 1.2%) (Q1 1.6%) • DK: 1.7% positive development reflects both price increases and Average price: conversion 5,000 5,800 • NO: 2.5% positive development reflects primarily price inc
Slide 10: Customer retention broadly stable
Customer retention broadly stable Private DK • DK: customer retention at 89.8% (90.0%) remaining constant at very high levels • NO: customer retention down to 85.5% (86.5%) driven by price increases and slightly higher market churn level Commercial • DK: customer retention at 86.9% (87.2%) remaining
Slide 11: Underlying claims ratio improving
Underlying claims ratio improving Claims ratio, net (Commercial DK & NO) Group underlying claims ratio at 71.3 some 10bps better than Q2 2016 Private underlying claims ratio at 68.5 some 50bps better than Q2 2016 Corporate underlying claims ratio developed negatively “Expected FY 2017 underlying cla
Slide 12: Motor insurance, not all claims are coming down
Motor insurance, not all claims are coming down Number of accidents Jan-July Bumpers, price increases in % from 2011-2016 Ford Focus Nissan Qashqai 20000 12000 10000 116% 19,378 15000 242% DKK 8000 17% 10000 6000 15% 4000 5000 6,682 5,668 2000 DKK DKK 0 0 2011 2016 2011 2016 Bumper Bumper incl. Rada
Slide 13: On track to meet the 2017 expense ratio target
On track to meet the 2017 expense ratio target Efficiency programme of DKK 750m 2015-2017 Expense ratio As reported Adjusted for one-offs FTE - Development Nominal costs in business areas 13
Slide 14: Investment – Asset allocation shows low risk
Investment – Asset allocation shows low risk Total assets DKK 41bn Splitting up the portfolio Match portfolio ‘risk-wise’ Free portfolio DKK 29bn DKK 12bn Sweden DKK 3.2bn Norway DKK 10.1bn Denmark DKK 15.7bn 14
Slide 15: Investment return – low risk remains key
Investment return – low risk remains key Key figures - Investments Market risk as % of total investments, YE 2016 DKKm Q2 2017 Q2 2016 2016 Free portfolio 124 122 939 Match portfolio 78 125 210 Other financial income and expenses -71 -66 - 162 Total investment 131 181 987 return * Solvency II, Stand
Slide 16: Solvency position Q2 2017
Solvency position Q2 2017 • Solvency ratio based on the Partial Internal Model is 209 (Q1 2017: 202). Own funds walk • Own Funds (OF) is primarily impacted by 12,000 • Result Q2 2017 of DKK 714m 11,500 • Dividends of 452m DKK (Q2 2017) 714 -452 11,000 • Increased intangibles from OBOS acquisition -1
Slide 17: Solvency ratio sensitivities
Solvency ratio sensitivities 230% 221% 220% 213% 211% 210% 211% 209% 208% 210% 210% 207% 209% 208% 210% 204% 206% 207% 206% 200% 197% 190% 180% 170% -20% -20% -20% -20% +20% +20% -100 bps -100 bps -100 bps -100 bps +20% +20% Q2 +100 bps +100 bps +100 bps +100 bps 2017 Equity Property Interest Spread
Slide 18: Targets and outlook
Targets and outlook Efficiency programme proceeds as 2017 topline growth between 0-2% planned. 2017 expected tax rate 22-23% Members’ bonus of 8% in September 2017. Markets remain very competitive High focus on capital repatriation Price increases to offset claims inflation. 2017 ROE a
Slide 19: It is important to know your investment case
It is important to know your investment case ”Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.” John D. Rockefeller 19
Tryg — Barclays Global Financial Services Conference 2017 on 6ix