Allianz Se · XETR:ALV
Allianz — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation
59 slides from Allianz's earnings presentation, Oct 2, 2025
Slide 1: Global Economic Outlook 2025-27: 10 Top-of-Mind Questions, Answered
2 October 2025 markets outlook Allianz Research 10 Top-of-Mind Update 2025-27: Quarterly Outlook End of Q3 2025 updated economic and capital Questions, Answered https://unsplash.com/photos/shallow-focus-photo-gray-balance-stone-HWRAHxoBlpU Film Industry Rétroviseur Clapper Board extérieur Photograph
Slide 2: 10 Top-of-Mind Questions, Answered
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2027 10 Top-of-Mind Questions, Answered 1 Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war? Primarily exporters in regions like Asia, Canada and Mexico, but also the US consumer as the impact on growth and inflation in the US will peak only in mid-2026. 2 Has stagflatio
Slide 3: Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war?
#1 Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war? Primarily exporters in regions like Asia, Canada and Mexico, but also the US consumer as the impact on growth and inflation in the US will peak only in mid-2026.
Slide 4: The US import tariff at its highest since 1940
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? The US import tariff at its highest since 1940 US tariff rate at 11.2% in August due to rerouting and Very few countries still enjoy tariffs below 10% frontloading, expected to rise to 14% by year-end US average impo
Slide 5: Mitigation strategy #1: Exporters have lowered their prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? Mitigation strategy #1: Exporters have lowered their prices Exporters absorbed part of the increase in prices due US manufacturers bear the burden of tariffs for less to tariffs than 25% of products US import prices
Slide 6: Mitigation strategy #2: Exporters have been rerouting, but limited room for much more
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? Mitigation strategy #2: Exporters have been rerouting, but limited room for much more Rerouting through India and Vietnam has Hiking tariffs by +25pp on all products currently under been the go-to, especially for tec
Slide 7: The cost of the trade war is still ahead of us
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? The cost of the trade war is still ahead of us Tariff impact pushed to 2026 as frontloading and Canada, Mexico, the US itself and exporters in Asia rerouting pushed trade flows higher are most exposed to losses due t
Slide 8: Tariffs are gradually feeding through onto US consumer prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? Tariffs are gradually feeding through onto US consumer prices The contribution of tariffs to US inflation is expected In the US, tech & pharma steam ahead, with strong to rise to +0.6pp by Q4 2026 positive revisions
Slide 9: FDI pledges to the US alongside trade deals unrealistically high and costly for source countries
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHO TRULY BEARS THE COST OF THE ONGOING TRADE WAR? FDI pledges to the US alongside trade deals unrealistically high and costly for source countries US pledged vs. actual FDI highlights unrealistic trade Pledged FDI to the US from Trump‘s trade deals deal investment p
Slide 10: Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to an undeniable reality?
#2 Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to an undeniable reality? Yes, but it’s going to be “stagflation light” compared to 2022.
Slide 11: Stagflation trends reemerge, but nothing like 2022
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABL E REALITY? Stagflation trends reemerge, but nothing like 2022 Persistent inflation overshoots collide with sluggish PMIs challenge stagflation fears – albeit largely growth in major economies driven by
Slide 12: Progressive slowdown in global growth in 2026
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Progressive slowdown in global growth in 2026 Global real GDP growth, % Growth is likely to stay weak but resilient to the uncertainty shock GDP growth, qoq in % © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSEG D
Slide 13: Tariff effects on inflation arrive with delay
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Tariff effects on inflation arrive with delay Inflation rate forecasts, % Inflation to stay above target in US and UK Inflation (yearly %) 2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f Global 6.1 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.
Slide 14: US growth caught between tailwinds and headwinds
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? US growth caught between tailwinds and headwinds Investment in AI-related components is powering Tight immigration policy is weighing on foreign labor ahead, while non-AI is weakening sharply
Slide 15: Energy deflation to fade and even turn slightly inflationary again in 2027
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Energy deflation to fade and even turn slightly inflationary again in 2027 Strong supply to keep oil prices in Gas prices in Europe unlikely to revert to pre-war check in 2026 levels USD/bbl E
Slide 16: Don't bet on the consumer-led rebound
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Don’t bet on the consumer-led rebound Consumers are less confident compared to the Households in Europe continue to save more average historical levels of confidence compared to pre-Covid time
Slide 17: Eurozone headwinds persist and the labor market is not inflationary
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Eurozone headwinds persist and the labor market is not inflationary Leading indicators show weak near-term growth Unemployment at record low, but so is NAIRU Z-Score, % % © Allianz 2025 Source
Slide 18: Germany at a crossroads: Autumn of reforms or prolonged downturn?
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HAS STAGFLATION TRANSITIONED FROM A LOOMING RISK TO AN UNDENIABLE REALITY? Germany at a crossroads: Autumn of reforms or prolonged downturn? Decline in IFO business expectations dampen hopes Government action on cutting red tape is too slow for near-term German recov
Slide 19: Can central banks untangle their complex dilemmas?
#3 Can central banks untangle their complex dilemmas? ECB done, Fed cuts less than markets expect, BoE more and BoJ balancing QT and rate hikes.
Slide 20: Central banks at a crossroads: between cutting, hiking, QT and QH(alting)
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: CAN CENTRAL BANKS UNTANGLE THEIR COMPLEX DILEMMAS? Central banks at a crossroads: between cutting, hiking, QT and QH(alting) Fed and BoE cautiously continue the rate cutting Quantitative tightening (QT) is rapidly proceeding in cycle, ECB is done and BoJ hikes agains
Slide 21: Wage-driven inflationary pressures are moderating only slowly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: CAN CENTRAL BANKS UNTANGLE THEIR COMPLEX DILEMMAS? Wage-driven inflationary pressures are moderating only slowly Central banks to strike a balance between sustained …and labor market tightness did not normalize nominal wage growth... Unemployment rate (LHS), Vacancy
Slide 22: Shallower but frontloaded rate cuts for emerging markets
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: CAN CENTRAL BANKS UNTANGLE THEIR COMPLEX DILEMMAS? Shallower but frontloaded rate cuts for emerging markets Easing cycle to deaccelerate by mid-2026 as price Only Poland, Argentina and Türkiye expected to cut pressures will rise, especially in Eastern Europe above 10
Slide 23: Is the USD's dominance facing a new era of uncertainty?
#4 Is the USD's dominance facing a new era of uncertainty? Yes - but don’t write it off yet. Capital inflows to the US are still strong.
Slide 24: Robust demand for US assets suggests dollar pressure is about hedging, not capital flight
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? Robust demand for US assets suggests dollar pressure is about hedging, not capital flight Following modest outflows in April, foreign investors Despite "Liberation Day", retail investors globally once again pour
Slide 25: Stablecoins surge, but remain anchored to the US dollar
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? Stablecoins surge, but remain anchored to the US dollar, providing additional source of demand Market cap up +63% since September 2024, driven by Euro stablecoin market very small, growth also Tether and Circle
Slide 26: Pressure mounts on Fed's independence, yet longer-term inflation expectations stay anchored
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? Pressure mounts on Fed’s independence, yet longer-term inflation expectations stay anchored The Fed historically enjoys one of the highest Despite political interference, long-term US inflation independence rank
Slide 27: Limited euro appreciation ahead as Fed stays firmer than markets expect
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? Limited euro appreciation ahead as Fed stays firmer than markets expect From a macro view, EUR/USD fair value to remain Our hawkish Fed view supports the dollar in the near broadly stable going forward term, bal
Slide 28: Long-run view: Overvalued dollar, undervalued Yen & Yuan
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? Long-run view: Overvalued dollar, undervalued Yen & Yuan - but the Euro’s fair value is less certain Euro appears undervalued versus dollar by PPP, but Deviations from long-term Real Effective Exchange PPP often
Slide 29: EUR/USD risk is skewed asymmetrically towards a stronger euro
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS THE USD'S DOMINANCE FACING A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? EUR/USD risk is skewed asymmetrically towards a stronger euro Baseline scenario (65%) Downside scenario (30%) Tail risk scenario (5%) EURUSD at 1.18 EURUSD at 1.25 EURUSD at 1.40 • Less Fed cuts than currently •
Slide 30: How far can fiscal dominance propel long-term interest rates?
#5 How far can fiscal dominance propel long- term interest rates? Truss moments are possible globally, leading to further spikes in rates, but central bank “puts” remain in place.
Slide 31: Vicious cycle: large fiscal deficits drive rates up, fueling even higher deficits
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? Vicious cycle: large fiscal deficits drive rates up, fueling even higher deficits No or little consolidation efforts foreseen in the short The US will continue to have a rapidly increasing term while fina
Slide 32: Rates stay high, but central banks could intervene via quantitative adjustments
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? Rates stay high, but central banks could intervene via quantitative adjustments Rates to stay elevated with remaining cuts largely Markets need to absorb large amounts of bonds both priced in but supply p
Slide 33: Unusual curve steepening: front-end on normalization, long-end on QT and deficits
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? Unusual curve steepening: front-end on normalization, long-end on QT and deficits Front-end curve steepening signals policy More concerning: Long-end yield surge as rising term normalization - not recessi
Slide 34: NGEU eased fiscal pressures in Italy – expect some reversal from 2027 onwards
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? NGEU eased fiscal pressures in Italy – expect some reversal from 2027 onwards Italy’s NGEU loans take-up provided a quiet but …which contributed to converging government yields significant fiscal boost… 1
Slide 35: Eurozone government spreads pricing in diverging debt trajectories
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? Eurozone government spreads pricing in diverging debt trajectories Election jitters to lift French spreads temporarily - Eurozone spreads reflect baseline assumes centrist presidency in 2027 diverging deb
Slide 36: French government bond spread outlook uncertain and depending on political developments
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW FAR CAN FISCAL DOMINANCE PROPEL LONG -TERM INTEREST RATES? French government bond spread outlook uncertain and depending on political developments near-term outlook (0-6 month) mid/long-term outlook (end of 2027) Probability Probability Probability 2027 president
Slide 37: Will the EU finally ramp up defense spending in 2026-27?
#6 Will the EU finally ramp up defense spending in 2026-27? Moderate spending increase of 10-20% seems more realistic, i.e. +0.2pp impact on European GDP growth
Slide 38: A ramp-up of defense spending beyond 2.5% of GDP looks unlikely by 2027
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WILL THE EU FINALLY RAMP UP DEFENSE SPENDING IN 2026-27? A ramp-up of defense spending beyond 2.5% of GDP looks unlikely by 2027 Filling the gap to NATO’s 3.5% GDP target by 2032 Allocation of new EU arm procurement scheme might deteriorate fiscal soundness (SAFE* pr
Slide 39: EU defense strategy meets reality: industrial capacity constraints slow progress
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WILL THE EU FINALLY RAMP UP DEFENSE SPENDING IN 2026-27? EU defense strategy meets reality: industrial capacity constraints slow progress Top European defense firms continue to pile up …but investments are not picking up accordingly backlog… Capex, % EUR bn © Allianz
Slide 40: How are firms navigating the challenge of persistent financing costs?
#7 How are firms navigating the challenge of persistent financing costs? Credit demand is picking up in the US despite tight conditions while European demand remains sluggish. Payment terms are still increasing as business insolvencies will only peak in 2027.
Slide 41: Financing conditions remain divergent
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW ARE FIRMS NAVIGATING THE CHALLENGE OF PERSISTENT FINANCING COSTS? Financing conditions remain divergent Despite lower interest rates, corporate demand for In the US, credit for commercial and industrial loans is loans remains muted in the Eurozone picking up bala
Slide 42: Peak in global business insolvencies only in 2027
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW ARE FIRMS NAVIGATING THE CHALLENGE OF PERSISTENT FINANCING COSTS? Peak in global business insolvencies only in 2027 Business insolvencies keep on surging in most The rise in insolvencies to reach +6% and +4% in 2025 countries despite already high levels and 2026,
Slide 43: Credit fundamentals back to average leads to spread normalization
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: HOW ARE FIRMS NAVIGATING THE CHALLENGE OF PERSISTENT FINANCING COSTS? Credit fundamentals back to average leads to spread normalization Interest coverage ratios (ICR) came off peak: Spreads are expected to range bound through 2025, Credit fundamentals already normali
Slide 44: Is a capital market bubble on the horizon?
#8 Is a capital market bubble on the horizon? No, but the AI boom looks fully priced in, leaving limited near-term upside in equity markets.
Slide 45: Growth-adjusted view shows equity valuations are not overly stretched
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS A CAPITAL MARKET BUBBLE ON THE HORIZON? Growth-adjusted view shows equity valuations are not overly stretched Global equity markets have surged, with the US Once long-term growth expectations by analysts are market standing out with elevated valuations factored in
Slide 46: US tech continues to lead earnings ranks. Valuations are high but no bubble yet
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS A CAPITAL MARKET BUBBLE ON THE HORIZON? US tech continues to lead earnings ranks. Valuations are high but no bubble yet Call for end of US exceptionalism was premature – Earnings growth supports solid total returns in 2026, long-term earnings expectations re-diver
Slide 47: Investors are shifting towards private debt strategies, prioritizing predictable income streams
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS A CAPITAL MARKET BUBBLE ON THE HORIZON? Investors are shifting towards private debt strategies, prioritizing predictable income streams Private markets performance has steadied at roughly Distributions are reaccelerating but private equity 8% yearly with real esta
Slide 48: Capital market outlook: Resilience tested
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: IS A CAPITAL MARKET BUBBLE ON THE HORIZON? Capital market outlook: Resilience tested Capital Markets: Eurozone and US Capital Markets: UK, Emerging Markets, FX year-end figures year-end figures © Allianz 2025 48
Slide 49: Which emerging markets are grappling with rising imbalances?
#9 Which emerging markets are grappling with rising imbalances? Emerging markets like Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, and Indonesia face rising imbalances amid an expansionary cycle, valuation concerns, and vulnerabilities to risk-off shifts
Slide 50: The cycle in emerging markets is still positive
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHICH EMERGING MARKETS ARE GRAPPLING WITH RISING IMBALANCES? The cycle in emerging markets is still positive Emerging markets are back in an expansionary cycle Some exporters have further potential, others need to Demand in manufacturing sector (PMI index, new orders
Slide 51: Fiscal and external strains not the norm, but Egypt, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia among most at risk
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHICH EMERGING MARKETS ARE GRAPPLING WITH RISING IMBALANCES? Fiscal and external strains not the norm, but Egypt, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia among most at risk Vast majority of EMs have not seen sovereign bond Many EMs in Latam and CEE and some in Southeast spread w
Slide 52: China: a slowdown in 2026, with likely contraction in exports and still soft domestic demand
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHICH EMERGING MARKETS ARE GRAPPLING WITH RISING IMBALANCES? China: a slowdown in 2026, with likely contraction in exports and still soft domestic demand Stronger than previously expected contribution from Policy easing is losing steam for now, but further is net tra
Slide 53: EM stocks benefit from extended business cycle and weaker USD
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHICH EMERGING MARKETS ARE GRAPPLING WITH RISING IMBALANCES? EM stocks benefit from extended business cycle and weaker USD EMs less exposed to US exports than DMs - US more A non-recessionary Fed easing cycle conducive to EM depended on EM Tech (e.g. Taiwan) than vic
Slide 54: EM debt: spreads are historically tight and offer little extra compensation
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHICH EMERGING MARKETS ARE GRAPPLING WITH RISING IMBALANCES? EM debt: spreads are historically tight and offer little extra compensation for EM vs. US credit. EM spreads expected to widen moderately from EM spread (bps) pick-up vs. US corporates is in fair current al
Slide 55: What political events could steer us towards a downside scenario?
#10 What political events could steer us towards a downside scenario? Mainly linked to the trade war, de- dollarization, sovereign debt crisis, NATO-Russia conflict, Middle East escalation, China-Taiwan open conflict
Slide 56: Global uncertainty keeps demand for protection high
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHAT POLITICAL EVENTS COULD STEER US TOWARDS A DOWNSIDE SCENARIO ? Global uncertainty keeps demand for protection high Economic policy uncertainty remains at high levels… …pushing investors to the ultimate safe haven index Year-to-date performance in USD, % © Allianz
Slide 57: (Geo)political risk: From ballots to battlefields
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHAT POLITICAL EVENTS COULD STEER US TOWARDS A DOWNSIDE SCENARIO ? (Geo)political risk: From ballots to battlefields Apr 2026: Parliamentary election Open or latent risk of military confrontation 2025 - 2027: Potential parliamentary election and 2027 Presidential ele
Slide 58: Risks to our scenario: More downsides than upsides
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-27: WHAT POLITICAL EVENTS COULD STEER US TOWARDS A DOWNSIDE SCENARIO ? Risks to our scenario: More downsides than upsides Factor Market Theme Description Probability Macro impact Market impact Growth - - US interest rates: + Global trade enters recession due to further U
Slide 59: © Allianz 2025
© Allianz 2025