Moody's Corporation · NYSE:MCO

Moody's — Global Economic Outlook Webinar (February 2021)

15 slides from Moody's's conference presentation, Feb 24, 2021

  1. Slide 1: Global Economic Outlook 2021

    Global Economic Outlook 2021 February 2021 XXXXX, Title

  2. Slide 2: Moody's Analytics Economists

    Moody’s Analytics Economists Dr. Mark Zandi Dr. Steve Cochrane Dr. Xiao Chun Xu Dr. Tim Uy Chief Economist Chief APAC Economist Economist Senior Economist February 2021 2

  3. Slide 3: Fragile Global Economy

    Fragile Global Economy Global Business Cycle Status Expansion Recovery At risk Source: Moody’s Analytics In recession February 2021 3

  4. Slide 4: Major APAC Countries are Securing Vaccines

    Major APAC Countries are Securing Vaccines COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreements, % of population, February 8, 2021 Canada U.K. New Zealand Australia U.S. EU Hong Kong Japan Singapore Taiwan Malaysia Korea Brazil Mexico Kuwait Philippines Vietnam * COVAX aims to provide two billion doses by the end o

  5. Slide 5: Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Response

    Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Response Fiscal support as of January 2021, % of 2019 GDP U.S. Malaysia Singapore Japan Australia France Canada Germany Italy Brazil U.K. Thailand Philippines China Indonesia Blue = APAC economies South Korea Green = Other large economies India 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source:

  6. Slide 6: China's Stimulus Debt Build-up

    China’s Stimulus Debt Build-up Debt to GDP ratio, year-ending, % 300 Government 250 Non-financial corporates 200 Household 150 100 50 0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Sources: The Institute of International Finance, Moody’s Analytics February 2021 6

  7. Slide 7: Global Trade Rebounds Quickly

    Global Trade Rebounds Quickly Global trade and industrial production, % change year ago 30 Merchandise world trade, 2010 US$ Industrial production 20 Nov 2018 – Trade War 10 0 Jan 2020 – Covid-19 -10 Data through November 2020 -20 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Sources: CPB World Trade Mo

  8. Slide 8: The Semiconductor Opportunity

    The Semiconductor Opportunity The current chip shortage is only the beginning of a secular rise in growth Sources: SEMI 2020, Moody’s Analytics February 2021 8

  9. Slide 9: Inflation and Interest Rates May Surprise Post-Pandemic

    Inflation and Interest Rates May Surprise Post-Pandemic %, 4-quarter moving average 4.5 4.0 Core PCE Inflation 10-Year Treasury Yield 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Federal Reserve’s 1.5 2% Inflation Target 1.0 0.5 10 15 20 25 30 Sources: BLS, U.S. Treasury, Moody’s Analytics February 2021 9

  10. Slide 10: Asset Markets Look Pricey

    Asset Markets Look Pricey U.S. stock market price earnings multiple, % 18 16 Ratio of Value of Publicly 14 Traded Stocks to Economy-wide 12 Corporate Earnings, % 10 8 6 4 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 Sources: SIX Financial, BEA, Moody’s Analytics February 2021 10

  11. Slide 11: Increasing Leverage is a Threat

    Increasing Leverage is a Threat Debt-to-GDP ratio, % (x-axis), 5-yr change, ppts, (y-axis), 2020q4 150 SVK 100 ARG IND BRA CHL FRA GBR SGP CHE HKG SAU ZAF VNM CAN MEX TUR ARE Korea JPN 50 PER MYS CHN United States GHA PAK THA AUS NOR COL FIN MLT NGA NZL DEU GRC 0 IDN EST HUN ITA ESP SWE BEL KEN ISR

  12. Slide 12: Who Has Fiscal Space?

    Who Has Fiscal Space? Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields 250 Philippines Australia Circle size=Real GDP, US$ Netherlands Norway China 200 Sweden Y-axis: Fiscal space (% GDP) Canada Denmark H. Kong X-axis: Debt (% GDP) U.S. 150 Chile As of 2020Q3 Kuwait India U.K. Switzerland Belgium 1

  13. Slide 13: Uneven Economic Recovery

    Uneven Economic Recovery Quarter when real GDP (on a PPP-basis) increases above its pre-pandemic peak Country 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 China Vietnam Taiwan New Zealand S. Korea Australia Indoneisa World U.S. Hong Kong Japan India Singapore M

  14. Slide 14: Contact Us: Economics & Business Analytics Offices

    Contact Us: Economics & Business Analytics Offices West Chester, EBA-HQ London Prague Singapore +1.610.235.5299 +44.20.7772.5454 +420.22.422.2929 +65.6511.4400 121 North Walnut Street, Suite 500 One Canada Square Washingtonova 17 6 Shenton Way West Chester PA 19380 Canary Wharf 110 00 Prague 1 #14-0

  15. Slide 15: February 2021

    © 2020 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liabilit

Moody's — Global Economic Outlook Webinar (February 2021) on 6ix