Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Q4 2015 Earnings Presentation
42 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, 2016
Slide 1: Q4 2015 Investor Presentation
Q4 2015 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Slide 2: Agenda
01 Refining Industry 02 Company Overview 03 Investments 04 Key Financials
Slide 3: Refining Industry
Refining Industry
Slide 4: Brent Crude Oil Prices
Brent Crude Oil Prices $/Barrel 115 108,0 115,3 110 106,1 PROS Increased geopolitical risk 105 101,2 perception 100 94,6 Potential high consumption due to 95 the lower price environment. 84,3 Narrowed spread between the 90 Brent and WTI and increased 85 CONS spread between the light and 80 E
Slide 5: Net Refinery Capacity Change
Net Refinery Capacity Change 3.000 200 270 2.000 520 880 530 Thousand Barrels/Day 526 510 309 160 1.000 334 250 198 400 150 0 390 181 0 810 120 0 84 302 20 640 340 135 180 305 63 0 160 195 40 52 65 -255 -145 -543 -486 -240 -109 -266 -5 -140 -1.000 -443 -775 -421 -100 -546 -2.000 -352 -189 2009 2010
Slide 6: Refinery Value
Refinery Value Market Position •Proportion of products sold domestically •Local Competition •Infrastructure Value Added Local Market Dynamics •Ability to upgrade •Growth trends •Correlated to complexity •Supply / Demand balance Cost Base •Energy Efficiency •Raw Material costs •Scale •Automation 6
Slide 7: Product Ratios (Barrel/Barrel)
Product Ratios (Barrel/Barrel) Gasoline Diesel 1,55 1,40 1,45 1,35 1,30 1,35 1,25 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,15 1,05 1,10 0,95 1,05 2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012 2013 2014 2015 0,85 1,00 Sep Oct Jan Jan Feb Sep Nov Nov Jul Apr May Dec Mar Mar Jun Jun Aug Jan Jan Oct Feb Sep
Slide 8: Crude Differentials $/Barrel
Crude Differentials $/Barrel Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 -0,5 -0,5 -1,0 -1,0 -1,5 -1,5 -2,0 -2,0 -2,5 -2,5 -3,0 2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 2014 2011 2013 2015 -3,0 -3,5 -3,5 -4,0 -4,0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Differentials Trends 2,0 0,0 -2,0 -4,0 -6,
Slide 9: Med Complex Refining Margins
Med Complex Refining Margins 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 Gross Margin $/bbl 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -1,00 -2,00 Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9
Slide 10: Turkish Sector Outlook
Turkish Sector Outlook Air Passengers - Million Primary driver of demand is 200 181,4 growing vehicle parc 165,7 149,5 Auto sales continue to massively 150 130,0 117,6 83,9 outstrip removals 102,8 80,3 73,4 Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG 100 79,4 85,5 65,4 59,4 & Diesel substitution 52,
Slide 11: Turkish Consumption (Million ton)
Turkish Consumption (Million ton) Diesel Gasoline 19,0 1,95 1,90 3.2% 18,0 0.5% 4.2% 1,85 17,0 7.0% +9,1% +15,9% 1,80 18,429 1,92 1,92 16,0 17,4 1,75 1,85 1,86 16,7 15,0 15,6 15,906 1,70 1,76 14,0 1,65 2012 2013 2014 2014(11M) 2015(11M) 2012 2013 2014 2014(11M) 2015(11M) Jet Fuel Fuel Oil 5,0 11.2%
Slide 12: Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) Million Ton 4,0 3,0 3,0 Export 2,1 2,5 2,4 2,5 1,8 1,6 2,0 1,5 1,6 1,0 1,0 0,0 -1,0 -2,0 -3,0 -4,0 -3,0 -3,0 -3,1 -3,1 -3,0 -5,0 -6,0 -7,0 -8,0 -9,0 -10,0 -11,0 -10,0 Import -10,8 -12,0 -13,0 -12,0 -12,7-12,3 -14,0 LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel 2011 2012 2013 2014 2
Slide 13: Company Overview
Company Overview
Slide 14: TÜPRAŞ Refining Assets
TÜPRAŞ Refining Assets Black Sea Baku İstanbul MARMARA İzmit Ankara Kırıkkale İzmir Batman Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons – 100% of Turkey’s refining Capacity Kirkuk Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 9.5 İzmit İzmir Kırıkkale Batman 11.0 MT Capacity 11.0 MT Capacity 5.0 MT Capacity
Slide 15: OPET – Tüpraş Share 40.0%
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 % 1.419 İstasyon 1.1 Million M3 Storage International Trading 1.003 Opet Marka •Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, •London 416 Sunpet Marka Black Sea & Mediteranean Jet Fuel Sales Lubricants A Sector Leader •Turkish Airlines JV •Fuchs JV •2nd Biggest Player •# 1 Brand 15
Slide 16: DİTAŞ – Deniz Taşımacılığı
DİTAŞ – Deniz Taşımacılığı – Tüpraş Share %79.98 Cumhuriyet Sevgi Gönül Leyla Suna Esra & Aylin • Crude • Products • Products Products Products • Bitumen • 2001 • 2008 • 2009 2012 • 2x20 K DWT 2011 • 164,86 K DWT • 10,98 K DWT • 10,98 K DWT 55 K DWT • Esra 2014 6 K DWT • Aylin 2015 19 Tugboats 25 18
Slide 17: Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons) In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11 countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API 9,7 7,2 6,1 5,47 5,7 5,3 5,1 3,8 3,11 3,1 2,57 2,9 2,8 2,39 2,6 2,4 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,1 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,43 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,1 1,0 0,59 0,7 0,30 0,
Slide 18: Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl
Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 7,51 8,0 8,0 6,28 6,13 5,98 5,73 4,89 4,88 4,69 6,0 6,0 4,34 3,87 3,70 3,50 3,65 3,44 3,55 2,97 2,83 4,0 2,63 2,62 2,41 2,52 4,0 1,96 1,72 1,57 1,65 1,37 1,40 0,90 2,0 0,44 0,42 2,0 0,06 0,0 0,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009
Slide 19: Production
Production Capacity Utilisation (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons) 120 +27,6% 8 7,32 7,42 6,82 102,5 7 6,47 100 4,4 6,25 6,07 5,71 98,1 81,6 6 91,1 79,1 5,51 77,1 86,1 80 2,9 2,4 74,9 5,51 69,2 5,5 4,63 5,41 5 78,7 7,5 3,6 4,55 76,8 74,4 71,3 69,6 8,7 60 4 4,32 4,19 60,4 4,06 3 3,31 40 2 20 C
Slide 20: 4th Quarter Product Yields
4th Quarter Product Yields 2014 2015 Asphalt 11,5% Mid. Distil. 42,5% White Product 70.5% White Product 77.5% Production 5.5 mn ton Production 7.3 mn ton API:31.91 API:30.27
Slide 21: 12M Product Yields
12M Product Yields 2014 2015 Asphalt ; Asphalt 9,6% J 10,7% Fuel Oil 17,4% White Product 72.2% White Product 75.4% Production 19.9 mn ton Production 26.9 mn ton API:32.29 API:31.35
Slide 22: Domestic Sales, million tons
Domestic Sales, million tons Gasoline Jet Fuel 5,0 4,75 2,5 2,04 3,83 2,0 1,81 1,78 1,82 1,83 4,0 3,55 3,29 3,0 2,76 1,5 1,0 2,0 0,5 1,0 0,0 0,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Diesel Bitumen 10,0 9,17 3,5 8,57 8,11 2,95 2,93 2,87 7,87 3,0 2,81 8,0 6,70 2,5 6,0 1,95 2,0 4,0 1,5 1,0
Slide 23: 12M Trading Activities
12M Trading Activities Exports, Ton*000 Exports 4.000 3.559 High CUR = big increases in export 2014 Finished Products 3.000 2.508 2.670 2.551 High Sulfur Diesel imports decreased due 2015 to low desulphurisation arbitrage profits. ULSD imports were higher due to the 2.000 trading arbitrage
Slide 24: Sales By Customer 2015
Sales By Customer 2015 Customer Groups Sales to Distributors Military 2% Asphalt 10% OMV POAŞ Diğer 25% Export Distributors 31% 23% 40% OPET Other 17% 5% THY Opet BP 6% Shell 11% TOTAL 13% 4% TP Petkim 4% 1% LPG Dist. Jet Fuel 3% 5% Total: 28.7 million ton Distributors : 12.8 million ton 24
Slide 25: Investments
Investments
Slide 26: Investments (Million USD)
Investments (Million USD) 1400 1201 1200 974 959 1000 800 628 600 395 344 400 270 188 177 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 26
Slide 27: İzmit Waste Water Treatment
İzmit Waste Water Treatment Project Aims • To reduce the need for fresh water What the Project Entails • A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water • Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed • Project completed in 2015 Investment • 22 Mil
Slide 28: İzmir Crude Unit Revamping Project
İzmir Crude Unit Revamping Project Project Aims • Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces • Enables sustainable full capacity utilization What the Project Entails • Configuration Changes • De-salter & Pre-flash column • Heat recycling – Heat Exchanger • Replace column internals • New pre-f
Slide 29: Kırıkkale Power Plant
Kırıkkale Power Plant Project Aims • Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkale with a combined heat & power plant • The other refineries are already equipped • Expected completion: 2016 What the Project Entails • A new gas turbine • New steam turbines • New boilers • One existing steam turbine will b
Slide 30: R&D
R&D The R&D department was set up Membrane Deaerator in 2009 It works primarily on process improvements One of the first commercial successes was the Membrane Deaerator Project The Project maximizes the use of waste Conventional Deaerator heat in the refinery by utilizing cold feed water U
Slide 31: Key Financials
Key Financials
Slide 32: Profitability Indicators, 12M & 4Q
Profitability Indicators , 12 M & 4Q 4th Q (%) Full Year (%) 2014 2015 2014 2015 76,27 43,69 -43 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 98,99 52,46 -47,01 31,91 30,27 -5,1 Processed Crude API 32,29 31,35 -2,91 70,50 77,50 7,0 White Product Yield, (%) 72,20 75,40 3,20 3,84 3,54 -7,8 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,9
Slide 33: Financial Highlights (mn $)
Financial Highlights (mn $) EBITDA Net Income 1.397 1.329 938 1.400 1000 900 817 1.200 272 422 740 800 667 285 1.000 830 629 715 700 271 800 468 410 174 91 169 560 600 490 47 600 106 268 271 89 500 47 175 338 206 400 779 328 361 400 309 315 415 435 256 226 300 230 171 200 153 522 165 273 262 78 0 13
Slide 34: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) Receivables (Billion $) 2,5 2,16 2,0 2,0 1,83 1,81 1,45 1,72 1,69 1,5 1,34 1,33 1,64 1,68 1,19 1,41 1,07 1,5 1,30 1,21 0,93 0,88 1,04 1,04 1,0 0,71 0,66 1,0 0,82 0,52 0,51 0,5 0,20 0,5 0,09 0,0 0,0 Dec.12Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13 Mar.14 Jun.14 S
Slide 35: FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2015)
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2015 ) Consolidated Consolidated Assets Liabilities Million $ Cash Payables 550 904 Receivables ST Financials 351 188 • RUP 300 Stock LT Financials: 2,337 675 RUP Loans: 1,550 Eurobond: 700 Forward Other credits 88 2,003 -177 million $ Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,709
Slide 36: Future Expectations
Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation • The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band. Med Complex Margin • We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5-4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016. Tupras Net Margin • For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in
Slide 37: Income Statement
Income Statement 4Q 4Q % Diff. Million USD 2014 2015 % Diff. 2014 2015 3.974,2 3.031,3 -24 Net Sales 18.164,8 13.570,7 -25 98,0 454,5 364 Gross Profit 577,5 1.535,7 166 -108,1 -98,8 -9 Operating Expenses -334,6 -322,6 -4 23,2 66,3 185 Income/Loss from Other Oper. -43,6 -200,9 361 13,2 422,0 3.098 Op
Slide 38: Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets % Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference Difference Current Assets 2.984 3.015 -31 -1 Cash & C. Equivalents 1.041 1.681 -640 -38 Receivables 882 87 796 920 Derivatives 6 28 -21 -77 Inventories 723 1.022 -299 -29 Pre-paid expenses 45 53 -8 -15 Other Current Assets 28
Slide 39: Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference % Difference Short Term Liabilities 3.036 3.692 -656 -18 Financial Loans 644 335 308 92 Payables 1.363 2.464 -1.101 -45 Derivatives 13,89 0,03 13,86 47.258 Deferred Incomes 8 8 -0,12 -1 Provisions 24 47 -23 -48 Other ST Li
Slide 40: Dividends and Total Payout
Dividends (TL) 7 1.200 6 985 1.000 5,83 964 5 Total Payout (Million TL) 4,96 800 4,78 746 4 626 3,93 3,85 579 600 3 3,24 2,94 2,98 2,50 396 400 2 2,31 1,73 1,58 200 1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout 2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 40
Slide 41: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and c
Slide 42: Investor Relations Contact
Turgut Tuncay Önbilgin Deniz Değirmenci Investor Relations and Reporting Investor Relations Manager Director The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated information of interest to investors www.tupras.com.tr Investor Relations and Reporting Directors Tel.
Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ş. (Tüpraş) — Q4 2015 Earnings Presentation on 6ix