Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF

Cf Industries — Q3 2023 Earnings Presentation

22 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Nov 2, 2023

1. Slide 1: Third Quarter Financial Results

   Third Quarter Financial Results November 1, 2023 NYSE: CF

2. Slide 2: Safe harbor statement

   Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such

3. Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

   Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield, which

4. Slide 4: Strong North American demand and favorable energy spreads underpin solid results

   Strong North American demand and favorable energy spreads underpin solid results  Low nitrogen channel inventories drive Net earnings Net earnings per strong North American demand diluted share  Returned ~$900 million to shareholders $1.25 B $2.49 B $6.42 $12.04 over LTM (1) 9M 2023 9M 2022 9M 202

5. Slide 5: Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2023

   Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2023 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q3 2023 Q3 2022 9M 2023 9M 2022 Net sales $ 1,273 $ 2,321 $ 5,060 $ 8,578 Gross margin 377 916 2,044 4,605 - As a percentage of net sales 29.6 % 39.5 % 40.4 % 53.7 % Net earnings attributa

6. Slide 6: Strong free cash flow metrics show undervalued equity

   Strong free cash flow metrics show undervalued equity Canada/US Free Cash Flow Yield(1) tax matter (3) 19.6%(3) 2018-Q3 2023 LTM average yield 14.0%(4) 16.7% 14.7% 11.9% 9.7% 8.9% 9.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q3 2023 LTM FCF/Adj EBITDA 67% 57% 55% 79% 47% 57% conversion(2) % (4) 56%(3) 66% Attracti

7. Slide 7: Forward global energy curves suggest attractive margin opportunities for CF's cost-advantaged network

   Forward global energy curves suggest attractive margin opportunities for CF’s cost-advantaged network Global Energy Price 2023-2024F North American Production Margin Advantage(1) USD per MMBtu USD per Metric Ton (MT) Ammonia(2) Urea 40 500 JKM natural gas 35 TTF natural gas Chinese anthracite coal 4

8. Slide 8: Nitrogen market has tightened since June 2023

   Nitrogen market has tightened since June 2023 Supply/Demand Dynamics China Urea Exports Million metric tons  Substantial imports needed by Brazil & India 6  Despite lower domestic prices, Chinese urea export 5 restrictions continue to limit volumes available for Total FY ‘23 trade 4 ~3-4M tons Oct

9. Slide 9: Capital management strategy focused on growing shareholder participation in our free cash flow

   Capital management strategy focused on growing shareholder participation in our free cash flow Evaluating DEF & Blue & green Nitric Acid production ammonia projects expansion Disciplined Invest in high growth initiatives return projects within & clean energy our network Return capital Inorganic grow

10. Slide 10: Significant initiatives underway to meet our targets

    Significant initiatives underway to meet our targets PROJECTS Purchased 2.2 billion Completed cubic feet of natural gas certified by MiQ Electrolyzer being Expected project installed completion Donaldsonville green ammonia Engineering 2025 project activities ongoing start-up Donaldsonville blue ammo

11. Slide 11: Donaldsonville Green Ammonia Electrolysis Project

    Donaldsonville Green Ammonia Electrolysis Project  North America’s first commercial scale green ammonia capacity  Thyssenkrupp’s 20MW Alkaline Water Electrolyzer  Capacity of 20,000 tons of green ammonia per year  CF engineering team gaining direct experience on commercial scale electrolysis: -

12. Slide 12: Appendix

    Appendix

13. Slide 13: Global nitrogen market expected to remain favorable for remainder of 2023 and into 2024

    Global nitrogen market expected to remain favorable for remainder of 2023 and into 2024 Pricing Supply/Demand Energy Differentials  Robust global demand along with  North American channel inventories  Energy differentials between North lower production due to global remain below average due to lo

14. Slide 14: Global grain stocks-to-use expected to approach five-year average by end of 2024 growing season

    Global grain stocks-to-use expected to approach five-year average by end of the 2024 growing season Global Coarse Grains Stocks-to-Use Ratio Global Oilseeds Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs vs Corn Futures Prices(1) Soybean Futures Prices Percent USD per Bushel Percent USD per Bushel 16% $7 30% $16 14% $6 $14

15. Slide 15: Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization

    Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization Total Recordable Incident Rate North American Ammonia Percent of Capacity Utilization (1) 5-Year Rolling Avg. Percent of Capacity Total injuries per 200,000 work hours 100% CF North 4.5 98% America (2) 97% 96% 96%

16. Slide 16: Capacity growth coupled with share repurchases continue to drive nitrogen participation per share

    Capacity growth coupled with share repurchases continue to drive nitrogen participation per share… CF Industries’ Nitrogen Volumes and Shares Outstanding as of September 30, 2023 Annual Nitrogen Equivalent 2009 – 3Q 2023 Nitrogen per share CAGR: 9.8% Million Shares Outstanding (8) Tons per 1,000 Sha

17. Slide 17: Resulting in strong free cash flow participation

    …resulting in strong free cash flow participation CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of period-end LTM Free Cash Flow (millions) Shares Outstanding (millions) Canada/US tax matter (2) $3,500 250 $3,000 200 $2,500 $2,000 150 $1,500 100 $1,000 50 $500 $0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

18. Slide 18: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

    CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 $300 $2.2

19. Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q3 2023 Q3 2022 9M 2023 9M 2022 Net earnings $ 230 $ 538 $ 1,486 $ 2,928 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (66) (100) (235) (442) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 164 438 1,251

20. Slide 20: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions Q3 2023 LTM FY 2022 FY 2021 Net earnings $ 2,495 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (384) (591) (343) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 2,111 3,346 917

21. Slide 21: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 Net earnings $ 432 $ 646 $ 428 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (115) (153) (138) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 317 493 290 Interest exp

22. Slide 22: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow and free cash flow yield

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow and free cash flow yield In millions, except percentages, share FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 Q3 2023 LTM price, and ratios Cash provided by operating activities(1) $ 1,497 $ 1,505 $ 1,231 $ 2,873 $ 3,855 $ 2,862 Capital ex

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