BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Lehman Brothers 2004 Energy Conference
17 slides from BP's conference presentation, August 2004
Slide 1: Getting Gas to Market: Maximising Value, The Impact of LNG
Getting Gas to Market Maximising Value The Impact of LNG Vivienne Cox Chief Executive BP Gas, Power & Renewables Lehmans 2004 Energy Conference
Slide 2: Presentation outline
Presentation outline z How the world of gas and LNG is changing? z How has BP positioned for growth? z LNG and the North American market
Slide 3: Key gas markets require new imported supply
Key gas markets require new imported supply NORTH AMERICA EUROPE ASIA & INDIA 100 100 100 90 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 70 bcf/d bcf/d bcf/d 60 Gap 60 60 50 50 Gap 50 40 40 40 Gap 30 30 30 20 20 20 2003 2015 2003 2015 2003 2015 Indigenous supply and contracted imports New Indigenous Supply LNG Pipeline So
Slide 4: Liquefaction costs transformed
Liquefaction costs transformed $ per tonne of capacity 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1995 1999 Trinidad 00 Source : BP and industry estimates
Slide 5: LNG is a highly integrated value chain...
LNG is a highly integrated value chain... …but increasing flexibility is creating new opportunities UPSTREAM LIQUEFACTION SHIPPING TERMINAL GAS SALES 9 Buyers/Importers with monopoly markets 9 Security of supply and portfolio diversification 9 Able and willing to pay a premium 9 Long term ‘take or p
Slide 6: Trinidad LNG launched on traditional point to point sales…
Trinidad LNG launched on traditional point to point sales… Boston Spain Cove Point Elba Island Lake Charles Dominican Republic Puerto Rico Train 1 Train 1 z Point-to-Point Sales – some Trinidad, opportunistic diversions, but Train 1 suboptimal shipping utilisation
Slide 7: …but expanding rapidly on non-traditional lines
…but expanding rapidly on non-traditional lines Boston Spain Cove Point Elba Island Lake Charles Dominican Trains 2-4 Republic z Markets captured ahead of Puerto Rico supply Train 1 z Owners marketing LNG volumes independently Trains 2, 3, 4 Trinidad, Train 1 z Shipping optimised z First “branded LN
Slide 8: BP has become a Global Gas Major…
BP has become a Global Gas Major….. z No. 2 (non-state) Gas Producer and Reserves Holder z No 1. (non-state) Gas Marketer and Trader Alaska Russia Norway Canada UK USA NL Caspian Trinidad Algeria Egypt China Vietnam Indonesia Bolivia Angola Australia Argentina Gas resources
Slide 9: …and is building a Global LNG Network – LNG Sources and Markets 2004
…and is building a Global LNG Network – LNG Sources and Markets 2004 ATLANTIC BASIN PACIFIC BASIN UK USA Spain Italy S. Korea Japan UAE Dominican Republic Qatar Puerto Rico Algeria China Taiwan Mexico Trinidad Egypt Oman Philippines India Bolivia Angola Indonesia Australia
Slide 10: LNG Strategy in Action - Atlantic Basin
LNG Strategy in Action - Atlantic Basin ATLANTIC BASIN Isle of Grain Bilbao New Jersey Cove Point Egypt Adgas Trinidad Existing LNG supply Angola Market access Future LNG supply
Slide 11: LNG Strategy in Action - Pacific Basin
LNG Strategy in Action - Pacific Basin PACIFIC BASIN Costa Azul Japan Buyers Kwangyang Adgas Fujian Guangdong Tangguh Bontang Existing LNG supply Market access NWS Future LNG supply
Slide 12: LNG: markets ahead of supply
LNG: markets ahead of supply BP gas supplied to plants Markets captured end 2003 mmcfd mmcfd Other Trinidad 3000 3000 New LNG Trinidad 2500 Indonesia 2500 2003 market Australia China 2000 2000 Other w th 1500 l gro 1500 Americas nua a n % 20 1000 1000 Spain 500 500 Japan 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 08
Slide 13: Equity Gas into LNG Plant
Equity Gas into LNG Plant mmcfd 5000 2010 2004 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Qatar Sonatrach Shell BP XOM TFE Source : BP internal analysis based on publicly available data
Slide 14: N. America Gas Prices: Stronger and More Volatile
N. America Gas Prices: Stronger and More Volatile $/MMBTU 10 Henry Hub NYMEX Forward Curve Aug 2004 8 6 4 2 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source : BP and industry estimates
Slide 15: North America Gas Supply
North America Gas Supply Indigenous sources are not enough 100 90 LNG 80 70 Alaska Pipeline 60 New Indigenous bcf/d 50 Supply 40 30 20 Indigenous Supply & 10 Contracted Imports 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source : BP and industry estimates
Slide 16: LNG For N. America – What will it take?
LNG For N. America – What will it take? Existing terminal Proposed terminal
Slide 17: Summary
Summary z Major regional gas markets - like North America - face a growing need for imports z LNG is increasingly able to contest these markets z BP has become one of the world’s largest gas players z Our strategy is to maximize the value of the Group’s gas – by enabling our equity gas to flow to ma