Ptt Public Co., Ltd. · SET:PTT

Ptt Public — OIM Forum 2011

32 slides from Ptt Public's conference presentation, Nov 4, 2010

  1. Slide 1: 2011 Oil Market Outlook

    2011 Oil Market Outlook 4 November 2010 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of PTT Group Company is strictly prohibited Petroleum Outlook Oil Price Risk Management Analysis Team Team

  2. Slide 2: Part 1: Forecast Methodology

    Part 1: Forecast Methodology PTT Group | 2

  3. Slide 3: What Price Do We Forecast?

    What Price Do We Forecast? Oil Price Benchmarks Trading Around the Clock derived from … New York London Singapore Future Exchanges OTC Assessment WTI NYMEX ICE 9:00 – 14:30 8:00 – 19:30 PLATTS PLATTS PLATTS BRENT 14:45 – 15:15 16:00 – 16:30 16:00 – 16:30 OMAN/ DUBAI OMAN OMAN & DUBAI Cash Settlement

  4. Slide 4: Forecast Methodology

    Forecast Methodology The Science behind the numbers Step-by-step methodology … Historical Data Market Driver Weight Price Forecast $/BBL 150 Brent Macroeconomic/ W1 PTT 130 WTI Demand 82.0 Fundamentals Dubai 110 Supply W2 TOP 90 80.0 70 Inventory W3 PTTAR 50 82.0 30 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-1

  5. Slide 5: Price Forecast Applications

    Price Forecast Applications From the View to the Real Practice Applications of price forecast . . . Price Forecast Short Term Long Term $/BBL 180 Commercial Strategies Business Plan DUBAI 150 GASOLINE GASOIL  Crude procurement  Annual and longer-term 120 FUEL OIL  Petroleum product sales plan  I

  6. Slide 6: Forecast Methodology Summary

    Forecast Methodology Summary “ Multiple views better than one ” “ Every aspect closely monitored ” “ Forecasting for a living ” “ More information available at http://www.pttplc.com/oim” PTT Group |

  7. Slide 7: Part 2: 2011 Oil Market Outlook

    Part 2: 2011 Oil Market Outlook PTT Group | 7

  8. Slide 8: Oil Story – The Chronology of Black Gold

    Oil Story – The Chronology of Black Gold Oil Prices and Major Events $/BBL 150 $145 Dubai WTI China imports Lehman Brothers 130 petroleum showed $3.9bn loss products for Olympics 110 $96 Greece debt woes, Credit rating cut Bullish Q2’10 90 AIG received Dubai Debt Crisis Earnings $83 $85bn from US US

  9. Slide 9: Oil Market Driver: Myth or Reality

    Oil Market Driver MACROECONOMICS FUNDAMENTAL NON-FUNDAMENTAL  Demand  Financial Flows  Supply  Speculation/Technical  Inventory  Geopolitics & Policies  Seasonal Factors Myth ? 10 o89 o Reality ? PTT Group | 9

  10. Slide 10: Economics Recovery Continues in 2011

    Economics Recovery Continues in 2011 Global Economy is to Continue Growing in 2011 With China and other emerging Asian countries as the leaders, and developed countries as the laggards . . . GDP Growth (%YoY) 2010 2011 15% China 10.5% 9.6% 12% India 9.7% 8.4% 9% Japan 2.8% 1.5% 6% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 2.8

  11. Slide 11: What lies ahead of the recovery path?

    What lies ahead of the recovery path? Global Economy Continues its Recovery But the way ahead is not smooth …  Slower economic  Sovereign debts  Imbalance interest rate  China asset prices recovery on fading pressured governments and volatile exchange bubble stimulus packages to curb spending ra

  12. Slide 12: Oil Market Driver: Myth or Reality

    Oil Market Driver MACROECONOMICS FUNDAMENTAL NON-FUNDAMENTAL  Demand  Financial Flows  Supply  Speculation/Technical  Inventory  Geopolitics & Policies  Seasonal Factors Myth ? 1 o o Reality ? PTT Group | 12

  13. Slide 13: Growing Global Oil Demand

    Growing Global Oil Demand Oil Demand Growth Back to its Green Track Growing at the pre-crisis level … Demand Growth 3.0 (Million Barrel per Day) YoY Demand Growth 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 89 -2.0 Total Demand (Million Barrels per Day) Total Demand 88.7 88 88.5 87.9 87 87.6

  14. Slide 14: The World is Shifting East

    The World is Shifting East Strong Oil Demand Growth in Emerging Countries While contraction is seen in North America and Europe. . . 2009 2010 2011 Thousands barrels per day FSU Europe North America 187 105 368 -66 -890 -196 -230 -40 Middle East 276 336 Asia 231 -879 981 537 603 Africa Latin America

  15. Slide 15: Global Supply is also Rising

    Global Supply is also Rising Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs Growth are Enough to Meet Rising Demand Limit call on OPEC crude to keep oil market balance .… 87.6 87.9 88.7 88.5 90 86.7 85.9 86.9 84.8 30.3 31.2 29.1 28.7 80 Call on OPEC Crude Balance (Million Barrels per Day) OPEC Crude 70 29.3 MBD OPEC

  16. Slide 16: OPEC Spare Capacity as a Cushion

    OPEC Spare Capacity as a Cushion OPEC Spare Capacity to stay at high level Capping oil price spike … 35 OPEC Crude Capacity OPEC Crude Supply 33 6 MBD Million Barrels per Day 31 29 27 25 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Reuters PTT Group | 16

  17. Slide 17: On Shore Inventories

    On Shore Inventories On shore stocks are still high as refineries are running up OECD inventories will gradually decline toward normal level in 2H, but still depend on demand … Source: IEA Oil Market Report 13 Oct 10 PTT Group | 17

  18. Slide 18: Summary

    Summary ECONOMIC “Modest GDP growth at 4.2%” DEMAND “Global oil demand to increase 1.3 MBD” SUPPLY “Call on OPEC at 29.3 MBD, with huge spare capacity” “High inventories, but gradually decline in 2H ” FUNDAMENTAL “Fundamental is neutral to oil prices in 2011” PTT Group | 18

  19. Slide 19: Oil Market Driver: Myth or Reality

    Oil Market Driver MACROECONOMICS FUNDAMENTAL NON-FUNDAMENTAL  Demand  Financial Flows  Supply  Speculation/Technical  Inventory  Geopolitics & Policies  Seasonal Factors Myth ? 1 o o Reality ? PTT Group | 19

  20. Slide 20: Funds Flow Fueling Oil Prices Volatility

    Funds Flow Fueling Oil Prices Volatility Funds Flow Driving Oil Prices Oil becomes an investment asset class PRICE PTT Group | 20

  21. Slide 21: Oil Prices Surge with Risk Appetite

    Oil Prices Surge with Risk Appetite Oil and Stock As Risky Assets Bullish macro factors and an increase in risk appetite drive up oil and stock prices . . . $/BBL Points 100 13,000 90 12,000 DJI 80 11,000 70 10,000 WTI 60 9,000 50 8,000 40 7,000 30 6,000 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul

  22. Slide 22: Hedge Against USD Weakness

    Hedge Against USD Weakness Oil as A Hedge Against Inflation Oil prices normally increase against weakening USD to keep its real value in balance $/BBL USD:EUR 100 1.65 90 1.55 80 1.45 70 WTI USD:EUR 60 1.35 50 1.25 40 30 1.15 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 PTT Group | 22

  23. Slide 23: Technical: A Non-Negligible Tool

    Technical: A Non-Negligible Tool Why Technical?  Monitored by every trader  Psychological influence  Decent guideline for short term 5-day 22-day Indicators:  Trend Lines Moving Average  Candle Sticks  Moving Average 200-day  Volume & Open Interest  Relative Strength Index (RSI) PTT Group |

  24. Slide 24: Seasonal Factors

    Seasonal Factors As Season changes… Demand & supply fluctuate Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4  Gasoline  Demand for heating  Winter demand for  Hurricane season stockpiling ahead of oil / Winter heating oil in Atlantic Ocean US driving season Stockpiling  Travelling demand for  (Oct) Pre-Winter  (May) North Asia

  25. Slide 25: Other Factors

    Other Factors Other Factors to Impact Oil Prices Unpredictable factors can cause supply or demand disruption, thus affect oil prices . . . Natural Disasters Geopolitical Risks Regulations & Policies Volcanic eruption Nigeria unrest US Financial Reform Bill Earthquake Iran nuclear sanction Taxes & Su

  26. Slide 26: 2011 Oil Market

    2011 Oil Market MACRO “Growing global economy but risks remain” FUNDAMENTAL “OPEC to balance increasing oil demand and non-OPEC supply” FINANCIAL “Financial & liquidity flows fueling oil prices bubble” OTHER FACTORS “Seasonal, geopolitics and natural disasters add volatility to oil prices” PTT Group

  27. Slide 27: Market Crude Price Forecast

    Market Crude Price Forecast What the Others Say Crude prices continue to move upward in a $80 - $100 range . . . Oil Price Forecast WTI BRENT Unit : USD/BBL 2010 2011 2010 2011 Barclays 77.75 85.00 77.45 85.00 BNP Paribas 80.00 86.00 80.00 86.00 BofAML 78.20 85.00 78.20 85.00 CA-CIB 78.00 78.00 77.0

  28. Slide 28: OIM Crude Prices Outlook

    OIM Crude Prices Outlook What We See Average Dubai $83/barrel, ranging $75-90/barrel with a chance to hit $100/barrel upon unexpected events $/BBL 110 Dubai 100 WTI 2010 Dubai $77.00 2011 Dubai $83.00 90 Brent 80 70 60 50 40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2010 2011 Speculative Iran

  29. Slide 29: World Energy Trend

    World Energy Trend Climate change Competition New Technology Energy Security Alternative Fuels PTT Group | 29

  30. Slide 30: For Oil Market Update

    For Oil Market Update STAY TUNE www.pttplc.com/oim PTT Group | 30

  31. Slide 31: Disclaimer

    DISCLAIMER : This publication (including any attachment) is intended only for the personal use of the recipient(s) named above. It is confidential and may be legally privileged. If you are not an intended recipient, any type of your use is prohibited. If you have received this communication error, p

  32. Slide 32: www.pttplc.com/oim

    Oil Supply Chain Integration Management www.pttplc.com/oim

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