Molina Healthcare Inc · NYSE:MOH
Molina Healthcare — Investor Day (May 2026)
76 slides from Molina Healthcare's investor day presentation, May 8, 2026
Slide 1: Investor Day 2026: Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again
Investor Day 2026 Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again May 8, 2026
Slide 2: Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again
Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again Topic Speaker Welcome and Introduction Jeff Geyer Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again Joe Zubretsky Compelling Financial Profile Mark Keim Joe Zubretsky Q&A Mark Keim Jim Woys 2
Slide 3: Cautionary Statement
Cautionary Statement Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This presentation and the accompanying oral remarks include numerous forward-looking statements regarding, without limitation, our 2029 performance outlook, our 2029 premium revenue, and our 2029 a
Slide 4: Cautionary Statement
Cautionary Statement Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures: In this presentation, we refer to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted G&A ratio, and adjusted pre-tax margin, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We believe that these measures provide useful information to investors as they highlight our
Slide 5: Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again
Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again Joe Zubretsky President and Chief Executive Officer 5
Slide 6: Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again
Realizing The Intrinsic Value…Again Performance Outlook Current Environment Investment Thesis The Growth Model Franchise Retrospective Operating Excellence 6
Slide 7: Performance Outlook
Performance Outlook 7
Slide 8: 2029 Performance Outlook
2029 Performance Outlook 2029 targets reflect modest margin expansion and sustainable revenue growth Total Premium $64 Billion 15% CAGR Consolidated MCR 91% - 92% ~100 bps vs. 2026 Adjusted Pretax Margin 2% - 3% ~150 bps vs. 2026 Adjusted EPS $25 ~70% CAGR …while continually refreshing embedded earn
Slide 9: 2029 Premium Revenue Target
2029 Premium Revenue Target Premium CAGR of 15% reflects current footprint, embedded revenue from contracts already won, strong track-record of winning new RFPs, and highly accretive M&A Organic Growth Acquisitions 3 Year Premium In $ Billions ~12% CAGR ~3% CAGR ~15% CAGR $4 ~$64 $7 $6 $5 ~$42 2026
Slide 10: 2029 Adjusted EPS Target
2029 Adjusted EPS Target EPS CAGR of 70% reflects many value-creating components and requires only a modest improvement in the Medicaid rate and trend imbalance 3 Year EPS ~20% CAGR ~25% CAGR ~25% CAGR ~70% CAGR $7.25 $25.00 $6.75 • MCR improves ~40 bps annually on current footprint $6.00 • Embedded
Slide 11: Adjusted EPS Target Sensitivity
Adjusted EPS Target Sensitivity A range of outcomes likely driven by several medical cost trend scenarios 2029 Key Metrics Consolidated Adjusted Adjusted Margin Scenario Trend Scenario MCR Pretax Margin EPS Trend moderately High-end 91.0% 3.0% $30 decreases 2029 Target Midpoint 91.5% 2.5% $25 Trend
Slide 12: Segment Outlook
Segment Outlook Embedded revenue and projected initiatives drive higher organic growth targets, while current rate and trend imbalance yields higher MCR targets Medicaid Recalibration Medicare Rejuvenation Marketplace Rationalization Organic Growth 12% to 14% 12% to 14% 10% to 14% 7% to 9% 5% w/ Opt
Slide 13: Medicaid Margin Restoration: Trend
Medicaid Margin Restoration: Trend We expect trend will moderate with a normalized risk pool and continued medical cost management 1 Post-pandemic redetermination acuity shift is behind us 2 Mix of lower acuity members are below pre-pandemic levels 3 Continued best-in-class medical cost management a
Slide 14: Medicaid Margin Restoration: Rates
Medicaid Margin Restoration: Rates We expect rate recovery combined with continued operating excellence will restore Medicaid margins 1 Managed Medicaid is underfunded by 300 bps in Molina’s markets 2 Actuarial soundness is foundational to Medicaid 3 States continue to give off-cycle adjustments 4 F
Slide 15: Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis 15
Slide 16: Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis We believe current margin compression is cyclical and temporary, and disciplined capital management will drive shareholder value Pure play government sponsored healthcare Credible path to attractive margins Sustainability of government sponsored High return capital deployment progr
Slide 17: Franchise Retrospective
Franchise Retrospective 17
Slide 18: The Molina Franchise
The Molina Franchise Leading pure-play, government-sponsored managed care franchise with depth, breadth, and scale 111 $42B 5.0M 21 3 Ranking Premium Members States Products Revenue YE 2026G 2026 Medicaid, Medicare 2026G and Marketplace 18
Slide 19: Franchise Retrospective
Franchise Retrospective A durable and sustainable growth engine drove long-term shareholder value from 2018 through our peak performance in 2024 New RFP win rate of ~80% contributing 1 14% CAGR premium growth 4 over $20 billion in premium Consistently best in-class adjusted 8 acquisitions contributi
Slide 20: Diversified and Balanced Portfolio
Diversified and Balanced Portfolio Geographically diversified portfolio of complementary product segments Synergistic Medicare and Marketplace Well Diversified 21 State Portfolio Segments Complement Medicaid 5% Marketplace 16% Medicare ~$42B 2026G Premium Percent of Total Premium Revenue 79% 5% or l
Slide 21: Balanced Growth
Balanced Growth Molina’s pivot to growth produced balanced organic growth and M&A that more than doubled premium, while maintaining leading Managed Medicaid margins and securing $6 billion of embedded revenue Organic Growth Acquisitions Total Premium In $ Billions ~9% CAGR ~6% CAGR ~15% CAGR $10 ~$4
Slide 22: Procurement History
Procurement History Highly successful track-record of winning state RFPs since the growth strategy began in 2019 Reprocurement Wins New RFP Wins 90% win rate 80% win rate $14B of retained revenue $20B of new revenue 22
Slide 23: M&A Timeline
M&A Timeline Eight transactions sequenced for manageable integration with over $10 billion in premium YourCare Affinity AgeWell Bright Health Plan Health Plan New York Healthcare Magellan Cigna Texas My Choice Complete Care Medicaid Wisconsin ConnectiCare 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Note: Ref
Slide 24: Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted EPS Growth 14% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2024 and industry-leading margins. Industry-wide imbalance of rates and trend significantly reduced earnings in 2025 and 2026 Stabilize the Pivot to Margin Turbo Growth Trend Inflection Business Growth Recovery $22.65 $20.88 $6.48 Organic $6.71 growt
Slide 25: Current Environment
Current Environment 25
Slide 26: Margin Pressures
Margin Pressures Current Molina margins are below trailing performance due to significant inflections in cost trend Medicaid Medicare Marketplace 4.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% (0.6%) (1.7%) (4.1%) 2021-2024 2025 2026G 2021-2024 2025 2026G 2021-2024 2025 2026G 26
Slide 27: Medicaid Margin Perspective
Medicaid Margin Perspective Managed Medicaid is underfunded by 300 bps. Molina outperforms the industry by 400 bps due to medical cost management and operating efficiency Managed Medicaid Molina vs. Managed Medicaid 2025 Molina Markets Molina’s advantage 2.8% 1.5% ~200 bps (300 bps) ~200 bps ~(1.5%)
Slide 28: Regulatory Developments
Regulatory Developments The regulatory environment has been fluid. We believe we have captured the long-term impact of current regulatory developments Medicaid Medicare Duals Marketplace – Rate actuarial soundness – Exclusively Aligned – Reintroduction of – Fraud, waste, and abuse Enrollment enhance
Slide 29: Medicaid Membership Pressure
Medicaid Membership Pressure One Big Beautiful Bill and other state initiatives are expected to reduce enrollment 2% to 3% annually through 2029 with only a minor acuity shift Work Phased decrease in the Medicaid Expansion population Requirements Semiannual Higher “churn” due to fluctuating incomes
Slide 30: The Growth Model
The Growth Model Medicaid / Medicare Duals / Marketplace / Accretive M&A 30
Slide 31: Medicaid Organic Growth
Medicaid Organic Growth Organic CAGR target of 12% - 14% is driven by significant embedded revenue and projected strategic initiatives Strategic Initiative Opportunity Organic Premium Revenue Opportunity 4% to 6% 12% to 14% 1 Win new RFP States $6B 6% Current Footprint 2% A Rate expectations 4% - 5%
Slide 32: New State RFP Opportunity
New State RFP Opportunity New state RFPs yield $90 billion of total market revenue opportunity by 2029 Contract TX Annual MO AZ Inception Year (LTC) STAR Kids Contract Value 2027 ~$10B LA IL AZ AK 2028 D.C. (Foster) (BH, Regions) ~$25B 2029 ID IN NC HI NH PA ~$55B Total Contract Value ~$90B Projecte
Slide 33: RFP Proofpoint: Florida Children's Medical Services
RFP Proofpoint: Florida Children’s Medical Services Molina’s best-in-class RFP engine secured a $6 billion win at projected attractive margins – Business development engine competed hard, $6 billion in submitting a world class proposal premium – Proven success in serving high acuity, low-income One
Slide 34: Medicare Duals Organic Growth
Medicare Duals Organic Growth Organic CAGR target of 10% - 14% is driven by the current footprint and projected initiatives Strategic Initiative Opportunity Organic Premium Revenue Opportunity 1 Exit MAPD ($1B) 12% 10% - 14% (4%) 2% - 6% 2 Increase Medicare Duals $1B market share Current Footprint M
Slide 35: Medicare Duals: Exclusively Aligned Enrollment Catalyst
Medicare Duals: Exclusively Aligned Enrollment Catalyst Molina’s Medicaid footprint is well positioned to benefit from CMS and state transition to Exclusively Aligned Enrollment of Medicaid and Medicare products CMS – The 2025 Final Rule encourages increased integration of Medicare and Medicaid Guid
Slide 36: Increase Duals Market Share
Increase Duals Market Share Increasing Duals alignment and focus on fundamental operating tactics will drive significant market share opportunity Actions 1% $1B Increase in service area market share 2029 Revenue from 6% to 7% Opportunity – State duals alignment – Product design – Distribution expans
Slide 37: Marketplace Organic Growth
Marketplace Organic Growth Organic CAGR target of 5% is driven by the current footprint with optionality for growth as we observe the future stability of the risk pool Strategic Initiative Opportunity Organic Premium Revenue Opportunity Maintain market share and 1 5% w/ Optionality growth optionalit
Slide 38: M&A Pipeline
M&A Pipeline The acquisition pipeline remains robust with many remaining actionable and valuable opportunities ~250 Potential Government-Sponsored Healthcare Targets Numerous acquisition opportunities are 1 actionable Large franchise opportunities 2 Turnarounds provide attractive economics Bolt on p
Slide 39: Operating Excellence
Operating Excellence 39
Slide 40: Operating Excellence
Operating Excellence It is not only what we do but how we do it that has and will continue to be key The Fundamentals Molina Playbook of and Medical Cost Management Franchise Model Best-in-Class The Operating Platforms Team 40
Slide 41: Fundamentals of Medical Cost Management
Fundamentals of Medical Cost Management Numerous capabilities drive medical cost efficiencies with focus on high-acuity populations – State-of-the-art medical economics platform Risk Care Adjustment Management – Utilization management Network Analytics – High-acuity care management – FFS and value-b
Slide 42: Case Study: Behavioral Health Cost Management
Case Study: Behavioral Health Cost Management Molina’s medical cost management addresses behavioral health trends with the highest costs through a variety of cost management protocols Who they Are Top Cost Categories – Members with BH diagnoses are 25% of – Care management for SMI and SUD membership
Slide 43: Best-in-Class Operating Platforms
Best-in-Class Operating Platforms Integrated best-in-class operating platforms and efficiency at scale drive 50 bps of improvement in the G&A ratio in the 2029 outlook One administrative platform across the Seamless “plug and play” of new 1 4 21-state footprint technologies and vendors Acquisitions
Slide 44: Artificial Intelligence at Molina
Artificial Intelligence at Molina We target 100 to 150 bps of additional benefit to margins from AI, incremental to the 2029 outlook The Range of Opportunities Molina Administrative Objectives – Efficiency and productivity of existing processes – Move to reimagining managed care processes Marginal R
Slide 45: The Molina Playbook
The Molina Playbook Proven execution of the Molina Playbook and franchise model drive sustainable value creation The Franchise Model Leadership Values – Health plans exercise local control Operating Model – Enterprise provides value-added services The – Unified decision-making Management Process Mol
Slide 46: The Team
The Team No names or organizational charts appear on this page….that is a cultural statement Who? What? How? Battle-hardened veterans Subject matter expertise Lead not just manage New-age thinkers Performance-driven Team before self Deep bench Field generals Integrity and character Effort is appreci
Slide 47: Compelling Financial Profile
Compelling Financial Profile Mark Keim Chief Financial Officer 47
Slide 48: Compelling Financial Profile
Compelling Financial Profile Margin Recovery 2029 Financial Targets 2026 Guidance Capital Foundation 2027 Outlook Performance Outlook 48
Slide 49: Margin Recovery
Margin Recovery 49
Slide 50: Perspectives on Medicaid Trend
Perspectives on Medicaid Trend Medical cost trend accelerated abruptly and was more than twice the historical average in 2025 Molina Annual Net Trend Drivers of Trend 7.5% – Post pandemic redetermination acuity mix shift Acuity mix 6.5% shift 2.5% – High-cost drugs 2.5% 5.0% – Behavioral Health serv
Slide 51: Medicaid Post-Pandemic Acuity Shift
Medicaid Post-Pandemic Acuity Shift Membership and risk pool now stabilized as significant declines from post pandemic redetermination reduced the mix of lower acuity members and trends Public Health Emergency Redetermination Since Redeterminations National National Enrollment Enrollment down ~20% L
Slide 52: Medicaid Rate Advocacy
Medicaid Rate Advocacy Molina engages states to enhance in-depth actuarial reviews and program design changes State Advocacy Actuarial Review – Review inadequate rates with state regulators – Actual vs. expected trend assumption reviews – Work jointly on rate issues through state health – Shared eme
Slide 53: Medicaid Market Risk Pool
Medicaid Market Risk Pool Rate setting on total market population cost base provides Molina opportunity to continually drive MCR outperformance Example Market MCRs – Cost trend included in rates as CMS requires Molina 97% rate setting to be actuarially sound Outperformance 94% 94% – State actuarial
Slide 54: Medicaid Margin Outlook
Medicaid Margin Outlook Molina’s Medicaid markets are currently underfunded by 300 bps. Molina’s margin advantage means we need just 90 bps of Medicaid MCR improvement to achieve 2029 target margin Managed Medicaid Pretax Margins Molina Medicaid Pretax Margins Molina Markets 2.5% MCR Actuarial ~0.9%
Slide 55: Segment Margin Outlook
Segment Margin Outlook Margin improvement driven by lower MCRs and G&A ratios in all segments by 2029 MCR % Adjusted Pretax Margin 2026 2029 2026 2029 Guidance Target Guidance Target Medicaid 92.9% 92.0% 1.2% 2.5% Medicare 94.0% 90.5% (1.7%) 2.5% Marketplace 85.5% 82.5% 1.7% ~5.0% Consolidated 92.6%
Slide 56: 2026 Guidance
2026 Guidance 56
Slide 57: 2026 Guidance
2026 Guidance With strong 1Q26 performance, full year 2026 guidance is reaffirmed FY 2025 1Q 2026 FY 2026 Actual Actual Guidance Premium Revenue $43B $10B $42B Adjusted EPS $11.03 $2.35 ≥ $5.00 MCR % 91.7% 91.1% 92.6% Medicaid 91.8% 92.0% 92.9% Medicare 92.4% 89.8% 94.0% Marketplace 90.6% 84.0% 85.5
Slide 58: 1Q 2026 Highlights
1Q 2026 Highlights Strong performance across all segments. Full year 2026 guidance is reaffirmed 1Q 2026 Financial Highlights FY2026 Guidance Highlights – Premium revenue of $10.2 billion – Reaffirming at least $5.00 adjusted EPS is – Adjusted pretax margin was 1.6% prudent at this early point – Seg
Slide 59: Embedded Earnings
Embedded Earnings Embedded earnings of $9.00 reflect in-flight strategic initiatives at target margins and the benefit of enterprise fixed cost leverage. At least $4.50 will be realized in 2027 Driver Premium Prior ∆ Revised • Medicare Duals wins Current Revenue $8B $5.00 ($2.25) $2.75 • ConnectiCar
Slide 60: 2027 Outlook
2027 Outlook 60
Slide 61: 2027 Premium Outlook
2027 Premium Outlook Strong premium growth of 14% to ~$48 billion in 2027 is driven by embedded future revenue In $ Billions ~$4.5 ~$48 ~$1.5 ~$42 • Florida CMS annualization • Georgia on 7/1 • Texas on 9/1 • MAPD exit for 2027 2026 Current Embedded Other 2027 Guidance Footprint Future Initiatives O
Slide 62: 2027 Adjusted EPS Building Blocks
2027 Adjusted EPS Building Blocks Known items drive the initial EPS building blocks before any further realization of embedded earnings or improvement in the Medicaid MCR Items in embedded earnings $2.00 $1.00 Every 100 bps $1.50 on the MCR is ~$5.00 ≥ $5.00 2026 FL-CMS MAPD Operating Other Legacy 2
Slide 63: 2029 Financial Targets
2029 Financial Targets 63
Slide 64: 2029 Premium Revenue Target
2029 Premium Revenue Target Premium CAGR of 15% reflects current footprint, embedded revenue from contracts already won, strong track-record of winning new RFPs, and highly accretive M&A Organic Growth Acquisitions 3 Year Premium In $ Billions ~12% CAGR ~3% CAGR ~15% CAGR $4 ~$64 $7 $6 $5 ~$42 2026
Slide 65: 2029 Projected Initiative Opportunity
2029 Projected Initiative Opportunity 2029 premium revenue target requires the realization of only ~25% of total identified premium opportunities $27B Marketplace $3B Optionality Medicare $6B Increase Duals market share Medicaid $18B Win new RFP states ~$7B Projected Initiatives 2029 Premium Opportu
Slide 66: 2029 Segment Targets
2029 Segment Targets Molina has a clear formula to deliver organic premium growth and a sustainable MCR to achieve pretax margins Organic Medical Pre-Tax Margin Premium Care Growth Ratio 2% - 3% Medicaid 12% - 14% 91.5% - 92.5% < 6% Medicare 10% - 14% 90% - 91% 91% - 92% 5% with Marketplace 80% - 85
Slide 67: Adjusted G&A Ratio Bridge
Adjusted G&A Ratio Bridge Molina improves the G&A ratio 50 bps through demonstrated fixed cost leverage on ~50% premium revenue growth. Any benefit from artificial intelligence is upside to margins 6.4% < 6% (0.5%) 2026 Productivity and 2029 Artificial Intelligence 2029 Target Guidance Operating Lev
Slide 68: 2029 Adjusted EPS Target
2029 Adjusted EPS Target EPS CAGR of 70% reflects many value-creating components and requires only a modest improvement in the Medicaid rate and trend imbalance Current Revenue Operating Discipline Future Revenue Growth MCR Recovery 3 Year EPS ~20% CAGR ~25% CAGR ~25% CAGR ~70% CAGR $4.50 $25.00 $2.
Slide 69: Capital Foundation
Capital Foundation 69
Slide 70: Strong Capital Foundation
Strong Capital Foundation Strong balance sheet provides stability and supports growth projections In $ Billions 1Q 2026 Credit Stats Sources and Uses In Projections Subsidiary Average RBC Ratio 311% Incremental capital required in projections: Organic growth $1.2 - $1.6 Net Debt / Capitalization ~48
Slide 71: Capital Deployment Discipline
Capital Deployment Discipline Capital deployment outlook prioritizes opportunities with the highest returns 3 Year EPS Capital Allocation Accretion Target – Organic growth is the highest priority Re-invest in – Most efficient use of capital to grow ~45% Business – All lines of business are high grow
Slide 72: Performance Outlook
Performance Outlook 72
Slide 73: $25 Adjusted EPS Target in 2029: Fundamentals
$25 Adjusted EPS Target in 2029: Fundamentals 1 Molina’s Medicaid markets are currently underfunded by 300 bps. Molina outperforms the market by 400 bps 2 Medicaid outperformance is attributed to 200 bps on the MCR according to STAT filings and 200 bps on operating costs 3 Molina’s Medicaid MCR impr
Slide 74: 2029 Performance Outlook
2029 Performance Outlook 2029 targets reflect modest margin expansion and sustainable revenue growth Total Premium $64 Billion 15% CAGR Consolidated MCR 91% - 92% ~100 bps vs. 2026 Adjusted Pretax Margin 2% - 3% ~150 bps vs. 2026 Adjusted EPS $25 ~70% CAGR …while continually refreshing embedded earn
Slide 75: Molina Healthcare
MOLINA HEALTHCARE
Slide 76: Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjustments represent additions and deductions to GAAP net income as indicated in the table below, which include the non-cash impact of amortization of acquired intangible assets, acquisition-related expenses, and the impact of certain expenses and other