Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC
Exelon — Lehman Brothers CEO Energy/Power Conference 2004
17 slides from Exelon's conference presentation, Sep 8, 2004
Slide 1: Leading The Way
Leading The Way Robert S. Shapard Executive Vice President & CFO Lehman Brothers CEO Energy/Power Conference New York City September 8, 2004
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking
Slide 3: Exelon
Exelon * Operating capacity at 12/31/03; includes long-term contracts and excludes Sithe and New England assets Sources: Company reports, Thomson Financial, Bloomberg Energy Delivery Generation Enterprises* ComEd PECO Nuclear Power Power Team * Divesting
Slide 4: Industry Trends
Industry Trends Evolving mix of regulation and competition Improving power market fundamentals Increasing energy prices Growing environmental concerns
Slide 5: Exelon's Position
Exelon's Position Low cost, low emissions generation fleet Large, stable retail base Successful cost reduction program Strong Balance Sheet
Slide 6: Our Regional Positions
Nuclear 44% Oil 3% Renewable 1% Peaking 21% CCGT 11% Hydro 4% Coal 16% Capacity ~38 GW* *Includes long-term contracts CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine Our Regional Positions Owned Generation: 2.5 GW Contracted Generation: 2.9 GW TXU Tolling Contract: 2.3 GW ERCOT & South Owned Generation: 11.2 GW C
Slide 7: Illinois Post 2006
Exelon. Illinois Post 2006
Slide 8: ComEd Bundled Tariff for Mass Market
ComEd Bundled Tariff for Mass Market 2003 Actual* 2007 Estimate RES SCI LCI LCI (< 3 MW) Non-Wires Rate 49 43 49.9 49.9 48.9 28 Line Losses 3 3 Wires Rate 25 31 35.1 15.1 10.1 3 77 77 Assumes increase in wires charges to recover increased investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure an
Slide 9: 2007 ComEd POLR Price Sensitivity to Fuel Prices
2007 ComEd POLR Price Sensitivity to Fuel Prices PRB Coal $/Ton HH Gas $/MMBTU * Fuel prices assumed in CERA's 2007 MAIN ATC price forecast ("Technology Enhanced" scenario) ** POLR price assumed to be 1.5 x CERA's 2007 MAIN ATC price forecast of $32.95 per MWh Assumptions for sensitivity analysis: C
Slide 10: ComEd Delivery Service Investments
ComEd Delivery Service Investments ComEd has made significant investments in Delivery Rate Base and experienced significant increases in costs since the last rate case test year (2000). Note: Financial data is simplified and rounded for illustrative purposes.
Slide 11: Financial Overview
Exelon. Financial Overview
Slide 12: 2004 Guidance / Expected EPS Drivers
2004 Guidance Weather ComEd CTC Amort. / Depr. Nuclear Outages /Fuel O&M + Pension + All Other Exelon Way Load Growth Other RNF Interest 2005 Guidance Invisible dataset 0 2.807217509 2.796245631 2.746768665 2.697 2.597 2.597 2.71 2.79 2.837 0 Green 2.807217509 0.016342461 0.027314339 0.049476966 0.0
Slide 13: Deploying Our Cash - Forecast
Deploying Our Cash - Forecast (1) Illustrative only - assumes 5% EPS growth (2) See presentation appendix for factors used in reconciliation of earnings guidance to GAAP (3) Assumes middle of the targeted payout range for 2005 and 2006 although no Board action has been taken (4) Available for stock
Slide 14: Peer Comparisons
Peer Comparisons Sources: Thomson Financial, Bloomberg Market data as of 8/31/04 CAGR = Compound annual growth rate *Exelon estimates: excludes transition debt interest, EXC coverage ratio also excludes Boston Generating Facility debt ** Edison International reinstated dividend 1/04. Note: See prese
Slide 15: Appendix
Exelon. APPENDIX
Slide 16: 2004/2005 Earnings Guidance
2004/2005 Earnings Guidance* Exelon's adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings for 2004 are expected to be in the range of $2.75 to $2.90 per share and for 2005 in the range of $2.85 to $3.05 per share. Our outlook for adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes income resulting from investments i
Slide 17: Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow We define free cash flow as: Cash from operations (which includes pension contributions and the benefit of synthetic fuel investments), less Cash used in investing activities, less Transition debt maturities Common stock dividend payments at 2003 rates Other routine activities (e.g.,
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