Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — Citi Investment Research Technology Conference New York 2008
20 slides from Asml Holding Nv's conference presentation, Oct 3, 2008
Slide 1: Citi Investment Research Technology Conference New York, 2008
Citi Investment Research Technology Conference New York, 2008 Eric Meurice Chief Executive Officer September 3, 2008
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average sales pric
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda HOW IS THE OVERALL MARKET DEVELOPING SHORT-TERM? IS THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT COMPROMISING ASML SECULAR GROWTH MODEL?
Slide 4: Current market environment
Current market environment No change from last quarter guidance Global macro-economic uncertainty drives minimum CAPEX build Weakness in capacity order bookings from all customers, all sectors, all regions Utilization still good in Logic, but customers with no mid term demand visibility invest spari
Slide 5: Leadership in immersion
Leadership in immersion Shipped 30 immersion systems in Q1 + Q2 Booked 20 immersion systems in Q2 Backlog at midyear includes 27 immersion systems Reiterate Q3 bookings guidance - we expect immersion bookings in the third quarter to be similar to that of the second quarter, but cannot easily guide o
Slide 6: Overall IC unit growth is robust @ 10%
Source: ASML Last data point: June 2008 Overall IC unit growth is robust @ 10% Year to Year IC unit sales compared with year before 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Units [B] 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Growth [%] 2007 Cumm 2008 Cumm Growth YTD YoY-3mma
Slide 7: Market researchers reduce their 2008 IC revenue forecasts down to 6% on average
Market researchers reduce their 2008 IC revenue forecasts down to 6% on average Oct - - 06 Jan - - 07 Apr - - 07 Aug - - 07 Nov - - 07 Feb - - 08 Jun - - 08 Sep - - 08 Dec - - 08 Mar - - 09 2007 - - 2008 Revenue Gorwth Forecast [%] 2008 Semiconductor revenue growth forecast over time 0% 5% 10% 15% 2
Slide 8: DRAM
DRAM Operating margins of leading DRAM makers recovering (but for most companies still negative) through aggressive shrink and 200 mm retirement Weakening end-user demand could delay expected shortages of DRAM from end 2008 into H1 2009 Consolidation efforts within tier 2 players continuing Continuo
Slide 9: DRAM spot and contract prices moving sideways since beginning of 2008
Source: DRAMeXchange (8/08), ASML MCC DRAM spot and contract prices moving side ways since beginning of 2008 Main DRAM spot & contract prices (01/06 - 2008YTD) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun
Slide 10: DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement accelerated in 2008 due to persistent price pressure
DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement accelerated in 2008 due to persistent price pressure Source: ASML estimates Expected DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement (Q1/08-Q4/09) - -160 - -140 - -120 - -100 - -80 - -60 - -40 - -20 0 20 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Capacity [200 mm equiv. KWSM]
Slide 11: NAND
NAND NAND ASPs keep declining due to lower than forecasted end-user demand However YTD unit growth still above 40% Current chip production costs above market prices resulting in significant losses Overcapacity expected to extend into 2009 Long term NAND application roadmap remains a strong driver fo
Slide 12: Logic + MPU
Logic + MPU Logic revenues and profitability is very strong MPU sales recovering from seasonal low Investments expected to recover in 2009, especially for 45 nm, driven by record fab utilizations and additional leading-edge demand Source: ASML Last data point: June 2008 Logic unit sales compared wit
Slide 13: Agenda
Agenda HOW IS THE OVERALL MARKET DEVELOPING SHORT-TERM? IS THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT COMPROMISING ASML SECULAR GROWTH MODEL?
Slide 14: Litho Market Secular Growth Drives ASML's Growth
Litho Market Secular Growth Drives ASML's Growth Chip processing becomes more challenging Average selling price of a system increases (US$ million) Technology leadership brings increased market share ASML's business driven by chip unit sales Chips become more complex Average number of layers per waf
Slide 15: The secular growth model: Market share growth
Source: ASML, SEMI The secular growth Model: Market share growth ASML Market Share (revenue) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 Success in Japan Immersion ArF in volume TWINSCAN PAS 5500 Scanner
Slide 16: 2008-2009: Shrink opportunities for all sectors
2008- 2009 : Shrink opportunities for all sectors 10 12 Resolution, "Shrink" (nm) 200 100 80 60 40 Logic DRAM NAND 11 07 09 08 04 06 05 01 03 02 00 ASML Product Introduction XT:1400 XT:1700i AT:1200 AT:850 Double Patterning XT:1900i EUV Immersion EUV DPT Source: ASML May 2008
Slide 17: Market share development
Market share development A natural "catch up" by our competition on immersion for 55 nm / 45 nm nodes after 1 or 2 years of virtual absence ASML leadership still intact for 2008/2009 in tool throughput, overlay and NA, delivering to customers A cost effective solution for 5X nm / 4X nm nodes A uniqu
Slide 18: ASML Vision and Strategy Articulation
ASML Vision and Strategy Articulation ASML currently operates within a lithography market which has a potential to double within the next 5 to 10 years. There is significant growth potential for us if we execute Strategy: "Over-execute" in all areas of our business Invest more in R&D to (1) strength
Slide 19: Conclusions
Conclusions Guidance for lower revenue 2008 (may see - 20% versus 2007) unchanged Uncertainty as to when Litho Capacity build orders would materialize, but 2009 strong immersion growth from NAND 4x nm, DRAM 5x nm and Logic 4x and 3x nm will sustain ASML revenue robustness ASML to maintain technology
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