Niq Global Intelligence Plc · NYSE:NIQ

Niq Global Intelligence — NielsenIQ — Consumer vs. Crisis Webinar 2 (April 2022)

47 slides from Niq Global Intelligence's conference presentation, April 2022

  1. Slide 1: Consumer vs. Crisis: how are shopping strategies evolving?

    Webinar 2 Consumer vs. Crisis how are shopping strategies evolving? Saltanat Nyssanova Marina Volkova Client Director, Analytics and Consulting NielsenIQ Russia Director, NielsenIQ Russia © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Crisis perception: what do consumers think?

    Crisis perception: what do consumers think? © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  3. Slide 3: Consumer optimism decrease in response to crisis is usually delayed in time

    Consumer optimism decrease in response to crisis is usually delayed in time Consumers in large cities (over 1 million inhabitants) are more optimistic with an average index being 81 points 200 points Anti-Russian Sanctions Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis 2022 99 93 90 86 91 86 89 90 91 81 75 66 62 66 Q3 Q4

  4. Slide 4: Consumer Optimism Index Components

    Consumer Optimism Index Components Job prospects, % 6 31 47 15 Q4 5 33 44 18 Q1 Personal finances, % 8 42 39 11 Q4 The number of consumers Q1 4 37 47 12 who are optimistic about personal finances and Time to buy new things, % opportunities to buy new things right now has 6 34 46 14 Q4 decreased in Q

  5. Slide 5: FMCG price growth is now number one concern among consumers

    FMCG price growth is now number one concern among consumers: for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began Q4 2021 Q1 2022 FMCG price growth 18 16 18 16 Military escalations 4 5 19 10 Health 20 16 11 13 Price of goods and services 12 11 12 12 Family wellbeing 10 10 7 9 Main concern Secondary

  6. Slide 6: Majority of consumers think sanctions will impact them and the economy

    Majority of consumers think sanctions will impact them and the economy in general More than half of consumers think the impact will be serious or very serious Impact of sanctions on regional economy 34 31 24 5 2 68% Impact of sanctions on personal wellbeing of Russian consumers are concerned with th

  7. Slide 7: Almost 30% of consumers assess their emotional state as strong stress

    Almost 30% of consumers assess their emotional state as strong stress. The same amount of consumers are absolutely calm How can you describe your emotional state at the moment? 27% 30% very stressed absolutely calm 8 8 11 8 16 7 11 15 9 7 Source: Consumer VS Crisis survey, NielsenIQ, 2022 7 © 2022 N

  8. Slide 8: Almost 30% of consumers assess their emotional state as strong stress

    Almost 30% of consumers assess their emotional state as strong stress. The same amount of consumers are absolutely calm How can you describe your emotional state at the moment? 27% 30% very stressed absolutely calm 8 8 11 8 16 7 11 15 9 7 How will shopping habits change among consumers who feel conc

  9. Slide 9: Consumers have started to look after their expenses more carefully

    Consumers have started to look after their expenses more carefully over the past three months Have you started being more careful with your budget in the past 3 months? 20 28 82% 40 36 40 37 34 48 50 of consumers in Russia 48 47 48 45 45 are taking actions to save up 29 20 15 14 16 13 13 August Dece

  10. Slide 10: FMCG sales may get additional growth impulse from expense cuts

    FMCG sales may get additional growth impulse as consumers have started to cut down expenses on take-away food and food delivery services Top areas to cut down expenses on 68%70% 66%66% 62% 62% 56% 56% 53% 52% 50% 49%48% 46% 46% 42% 43% 37% 40%37% Buying new Out-of-home Eating out Home Buying Take-aw

  11. Slide 11: Almost a third of consumers started to buy less FMCG

    Almost a third of consumers started to buy less FMCG in the past three months After the peak in March and April, FMCG sales entered the negative zone and are expected to recover for several months FMCG shopping changes in the past three months 22 33 30 44 41 43 42 67 59 60 53 55 53 54 11 7 12 3 4 3

  12. Slide 12: What is the difference between Covid-19 crisis and 2022 crisis?

    What iscolumn Two the difference between Covid-19 numbered list crisis and 2022 crisis? Volume sales explosion of the 2022 crisis equals Covid-19 levels Weekly sales change during Covid-19 and now Volume sales change (items), 2020 =8–17 weeks, 2022 =4–13 week 24% 17% 13% 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 5% 6% 7% 0%

  13. Slide 13: After peak period sales are slowing down in all FMCG industries

    After peak period sales are slowing down in all FMCG industries Weekly sales change versus similar week last year, % 98 97 46 35 26 28 29 24 22 19 18 18 21 19 18 15 17 13 15 11 9 9 6 6 1 3 1 2 Food Продовольственные товары Non-food товары Непродовольственные Alcohol Алкоголь Tobacco Табак W 2022 08

  14. Slide 14: (Not) forecast: sales recovery after peak may last over 20 weeks

    (Not) forecast: Two colmnsales recovery after numbered peak and subsequent slowdown may last list for over 20 weeks Actual sales, trend and volume sales forecast buckwheat, 2019 – 2023 224% of 26 weeks of sales 209% of >20 weeks of sales recovery recovery consumption consumption norm norm 2019 2020

  15. Slide 15: (Not) forecast: sales recovery after peak may last over 20 weeks

    (Not) forecast: Two colmnsales recovery after numbered peak and subsequent slowdown may last list for over 20 weeks Actual sales, trend and volume sales forecast detergents, 2019 – 2023 132% of 187% of 18 weeks of sales >20 weeks of sales consumption recovery consumption recovery norm norm Факт, сгл

  16. Slide 16: After sales peak consumers move from stock refills to fresh produce

    After sales peak consumers move from stock refills to buying fresh produce and non- durable goods Volume sales versus similar week LY, % Sugar 84 -7 Coffee 20 -6 CSD 17 6 Cat food 15 -6 Beer 11 8 Chocolate tablets 11 5 Butter 9 -1 Vodka 9 8 5 Sales change Изменение vs. LY,к % 9-11 продаж Meat -2 202

  17. Slide 17: Key saving strategies among consumers

    Key saving strategies among consumers © 2021 2022 Nielsen NielsenConsumer ConsumerLLC. LLC.All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.

  18. Slide 18: FMCG prices in many categories are still growing

    FMCG prices in many categories are still growing FMCG price change on weeks 13 and 14 Average prices (kg./l.) compared to December 2021 50% 48% 36% 34% 28% 30% 28% 29% 28% 23% 26% 23% 22% 21% 12%14% 11% 11%12% 11%12% 9%10% 9% 8% 9% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 5% 0% 2% -1% -1% Sugar Oil Buckwheat Flour Chocolate

  19. Slide 19: Majority of consumers notice price increases on FMCG

    Majority of consumers notice price increases on FMCG How do you think FMCG prices changed in the past three months? Significan tly increased 29 Slightly inc reased 56 61 59 58 67 77 No change 63 Slightly dec reased 41 34 38 39 Significan tly dec reased 31 22 August December March June September Dece

  20. Slide 20: Do you expect further price growth in the next three months?

    Do you expect further price growth in the next three months? Level of expected price growth 0-5% 7% 6-10% 19% almost 30% of Russian consumers believe prices will 11-15% 18% increase by over 20% in the next three months 16-20% 14% Over 20% 29% Source: Consumer Optimism Index, NielsenIQ Q1 2022 20 © 2

  21. Slide 21: Main saving strategies among consumers

    Main saving strategies among consumers: visiting shops with cheaper prices, buying only essentials, looking for lower prices and deals Key saving strategies among consumers who noticed price increase 61 41 37 26 16 16 11 11 7 Visiting shops Looking for Buying only Switching to Buying FMCG Making big

  22. Slide 22: List of stores visited for FMCG shopping has expanded significantly

    List of stores visited for FMCG shopping has already expanded significantly Number of shops you visited in the past month? 3,5 4,0 4,2 4,0 4,7 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: NielsenIQ Shopper Trends, 2021 22 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  23. Slide 23: Shops with lower prices become more popular during crises

    Shops with lower prices become more popular during crises Change of amount of FMCG bought in different offline retail chains 27 51 20 3 18 59 21 2 17 60 21 2 16 57 21 7 Buying more than 3 15 64 26 2 mo nth ago 13 60 25 3 Buying the same as 3 mo nth ago 11 59 32 2 Buying less than 3 mo nth ago 10 54

  24. Slide 24: Discounters keep gaining sales share

    Discounters keep gaining sales share Sales share by channel, % 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.5 18.6 19.3 17.5 16.5 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.5 14.4 15.0 17.6 17.0 15.0 13.5 12.8 12.8 54.4 53.0 51.9 53.4 55.8 56.3 56.6 56.2 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 W 2022 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

  25. Slide 25: Promotions drive store switching

    Promotions drive store switching Promotions impact shopping habits so strongly, 4 out of 10 consumers will switch stores to find a better deal 5% 3% 6% 5% 12% Promo rarely 11% 9% 9% influences my 12% decisions 21% 14% 12% 27% Buy promoted item 26% onl y if I already like it 27% 36% Regul arly switch

  26. Slide 26: What will happen to the levels of promoted sales depends on industry players

    What will happen to the levels of promoted sales depends on the industry players FMCG market in Russia is at the turning point: share of promoted sales can grow in response to inflation, on the other hand, in most categories it has already reached the upper limit and can be “reset’ Share of promoted

  27. Slide 27: Shopping frequency decrease is the most popular saving strategy in food

    Shopping frequency decrease is the most popular saving strategy among food categories in the past month Snacks and Grocery Fresh produce Beverages confectionery Buying less frequently 23 21 25 31 Do not buy this product 21 3 24 22 Switching to cheaper brands 9 11 6 3 Visiting shops with better price

  28. Slide 28: Among non-food categories, cheaper brands and buying less frequently gain popularity

    Among non-food categories such strategies as switching to cheaper brands and buying less frequently are gaining popularity in the last month Personal care Home care Buying less frequently 16 12 Do not buy this product 7 2 Switching to cheaper brands 11 18 Visiting shops with better prices/promo 10 9

  29. Slide 29: What to do?

    What to do? © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  30. Slide 30: Assortment Promotions E-commerce

    Assortment Promotions E-commerce 30 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  31. Slide 31: 68% of consumers encountered out-of-stocks in the past month

    68% of consumers in Russia encountered out-of-stocks in the past month Source: Consumer Optimism Index, NielsenIQ Q1 2022 31 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  32. Slide 32: Only a third of consumers noticed assortment contraction

    But only a third of consumers noticed assortment contraction in the past 3 months Assortment changes 20% 40% 43% 35% 38% 35% 35% 2 8 9 7 7 9 8 FMCG a ssortment contracted significantly over the past 3 months 18 28 31 27 27 FMCG a ssortment slightly contracted over the pa st 32 34 3 months FMCG a sso

  33. Slide 33: In reality assortment of some FMCG categories has noticeably contracted

    In reality assortment of some FMCG categories has noticeably contracted Number of SKU with distribution level above 5% Buckwheat Infant formula 129 125 152 142 24 23 22 21 21 20 21 24 26 26 24 21 20 95 110 110 111 99 107 109 88 80 Oils Detergents 151 141 114 101 107 103 101 106 109 126 118 103 98 42

  34. Slide 34: Sales share of private label grows among food categories

    Sales share of private label grows among food categories, but contracts in non-food during peak weeks Food Non-food 30 +35,2 40 30 +57,8 35 60 25 30 25 Sales change, % +19,0 25 40 20 +18,0 20 +22.6 20 20 15 15 15 +5.7 10 0 10 5 10 11.7 12.7 13.0 0 -20 5 11.0 5 8.6 8.9 9.9 9.3 Share of private label,

  35. Slide 35: When it comes to package size choice consumers polarize

    When it comes to package size choice consumers “polarize” In around half of FMCG categories consumers buy bigger packages in comparison to last year, in the other half — smaller sizes Sales growth 220% Impulse categories 200% Detergents 97 Baby food Personal care: shampoo, gels, face care 106 Baking

  36. Slide 36: Assortment Promotions E-commerce

    Assortment Promotions E-commerce 36 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  37. Slide 37: Share of promoted sales decreases in all channels

    Share of promoted sales decreases in all channels Share of promoted sales in modern trade channels Discounters Hypermarkets Supermarkets Minimarkets E-commerce 35 31 46 42 43 44 40 44 50 52 56 48 51 52 57 58 66 74 79 86 65 69 54 58 57 56 60 56 50 48 44 52 49 48 43 42 34 26 21 14 2020 2021 2022 2022

  38. Slide 38: Discount size and share of promoted sales decrease

    Discount size and share of promoted sales decrease Food Non-food 6 0.0 22.7 23.1 22.5 2 4.0 8 0.0 26.7 28.0 Discount, % 21.8 2 3.0 25.6 2 8.0 5 5.0 21.3 20.9 2 2.0 7 0.0 24.0 2 6.0 5 0.0 45.8 46.1 46.1 20.5 20.1 6 0.0 22.2 2 4.0 43.7 47.3 2 1.0 4 5.0 42.2 5 0.0 42.7 20.3 20.0 2 2.0 38.9 2 0.0 37.7 1

  39. Slide 39: After 2015 crisis share of promoted sales increased in 2016

    After 2015 crisis share of promoted sales increased by 9 p.p. in 2016 Share of promoted sales in most promoted categories 75% H1 2015 H1 2016 68% 63% 58% 53% 51% 51% 48% 47% 46% 45% Fabric Detergents Soap Shampoo Toothpaste Coffee Household Chocolate Fruit Diapers Energy softeneres cleaners assortme

  40. Slide 40: Assortment Promotions E-commerce

    Assortment Promotions E-commerce 40 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  41. Slide 41: E-commerce share almost doubled during peak weeks

    E-commerce Two columnvaluenumbered share almost doubled list during peak weeks in comparison to 2021 E-commerce share Value FMCG sales in Russia 2021/2020 January-March 2022 Weekly sales change (January-April 2022) 9.5% 9.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.4% 8.5% 8.1% 8.1% 7.9% 7.7% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 5.6% 5.1% 3.6% 2.9%

  42. Slide 42: Online sales of the majority of FMCG categories are slowing down

    Online sales of the majority of FMCG categories are slowing down, non-food categories remain most dynamic Value sales change versus similar week YA, % Total 158% 60% Dishwash cleaners 487% 141% Detergents 457% 128% Coffee 306% 68% Cat food 251% 69% Dog food 247% 76% Shampoo 228% 94% 9-11 9–1122week

  43. Slide 43: Consumers in Russia compare prices in offline and online stores

    73% of consumers in Russia compare prices in offline and online stores 48% of consumers in Russia think they can find cheaper prices online Source: NielsenIQ Shopper Trends, december 2021 43 © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  44. Slide 44: Despite more significant price increase online sales did not slow down

    Despite more significant price increase online sales did not slow down during the peak period Before the peak weeks online price index (on comparable SKU) was lower than offline Coffee Dog food Online price index versus offline 105% МАТ ending week 7 98% 100% 98% 2022 94% 90% 88% 8-11 weeks 2022 86%

  45. Slide 45: Average prices online slowly return to pre-crisis levels

    Two column Average numbered prices online list slowly return to pre-crisis levels Average price change online (per item) 300 259% 262% 252% 260% 250 238% 240% 216% 198 223% 224% 200 189 190 169 220% 158 160 ОФЛАЙН Offline 146 150 200% ОНЛАЙН Online 100 76 180% Ценовой индекс 75 73 71 71 71 Online pr

  46. Slide 46: How can NielsenIQ help your business?

    How can NielsenIQ help your business? NielsenIQ solutions were used in this presentation: § Weekly data § Promo analytics Shopper survey Total Store Read § Online promo «Russian Consumer § Retail audit data analytics in the new economic Scantrack § Analysis of price environment» elasticities Weekly

  47. Slide 47: Consumer VS Crisis: how are shopping strategies evolving?

    Consumer VS Crisis: how are shopping strategies evolving? If you have questions or need additional informations, please, reach out to you NielsenIQ contact or email us at nielseniqrussia.info@smb.nielseniq.com Follow our latest updates on Telegram: t.me/nielsenrussia © 2022 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All

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