Orlen Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
Orlen Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q3 2013 Earnings Presentation
40 slides from Orlen Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Oct 23, 2013
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q13
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q13 Jacek Krawiec, CEO Sławomir Jędrzejczyk, CFO 23 October 2013 1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 3Q13
Key highlights 3Q13 Shareholders Value creation Dividend payment: PLN 642 m, i.e. PLN 1,5 per 1 share EBITDA LIFO in 3Q13: PLN 0,8 bn Dividend yield: 3,8% based on average PKN ORLEN share 8th shale gas well finished price in 2012 Arrangement agreement signed, initiating an acquisition of 100% shares
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 3Q13 (y/y)
Macro environment in 3Q13 (y/y) Comparable level of crude oil price Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Average Brent Crude Oil price, USD/bbl Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl 140 differential margin - 5,6 USD/bbl 0 USD/bbl 117 119 9,1 120 113 113 109 108 110 110
Slide 6: Further drop in fuel consumption on Polish market despite GDP growth
Further drop in fuel consumption on Polish market despite GDP growth GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of last year mt 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 - 2% - 2% 3,06 2,99 1,3 0,7 0,8 1,0÷1,4 1,00 0,98 0,5 Poland + 5% 9,01 + 2% 8,61 0,9 4
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 7
Slide 8: Financial results
Financial results 3Q12 2Q13 3Q13 PLN m 9M12 9M13 - 4% - 3% Revenues: decrease by (-) 4% (y/y) due to lower prices 31 654 30 392 88 856 86 175 of refining products and strengthening of PLN against 28 311 USD Revenues - 0,8 bn - 1,5 bn 1 552 EBITDA LIFO: decrease by PLN (-) 0,8 bn (y/y) mainly 4 110 d
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO PLN 0,8 bn in 3Q13 despite challenges in the refining segment
EBITDA LIFO PLN 0,8 bn in 3Q13 despite challenges in the refining segment Segments’ results in 3Q13 Negative impact of: PLN m 399 796 Macro factors including refining margins and record-low B/U -10 differential as well as strengthening of PLN against USD (y/y) -95 450 Overall decrease in sales volum
Slide 10: Refining – EBITDA LIFO
Refining – EBITDA LIFO Worsening of result (y/y) due to unfavourable macro and market challenges EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments) PLN m 996 + 1.000 930 High comparable crude oil throughput and utilization 843 (y/y) 800 716 574 575 Fuel yields increase in Poland (y/y) 600 458 462 358 400 3
Slide 11: Refining – operational data
Refining – operational data Nearly 7,5 mt of crude oil throughput in 3Q13 Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % PKN ORLEN Unipetrol ORLEN Lietuva 7 - 1% 100 100 98 98 6,3 6,3 6,2 6,1 6,0 6,1 93 5,9 97 92 6 5,7 5,5 5,6 5,5 89 5,2 92 86 5,1 5,1 5 4,7 86 80 80 80 80 4 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Slide 12: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Better result due to higher fuel margins and sales volumes (y/y) EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments) PLN m + 500 450 Higher fuel margins in Polish, German and Czech 388 markets and flat in Lithuania (y/y) 369 400 341 360 295 306 Higher fuel sales in all operating markets
Slide 13: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Increase of sales by 3% (y/y) and Stop Cafe & Bistro Cafe by 225 (y/y) Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % 3 # stations ∆ y/y % market ∆ y/y + 3% PL 1 766 7 35,0% 0,7pp 2,0 1,9 2,0 2,1 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 2 1,8 1,8 1,8 CZ 337 2 14,3% 0,
Slide 14: Petrochemicals – EBITDA LIFO
Petrochemicals – EBITDA LIFO Better result mainly due to higher petrochemical margin (y/y) EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments) PLN m 694 678 + 700 667 Higher model petrochemical margin (y/y) 580 600 Weakening of PLN vs EUR (y/y) 531 506 491 500 470 Record high PTA sales in 3Q13 399 400 326 3
Slide 15: Petrochemicals – operational data
Petrochemicals – operational data Sales decrease by (-) 6% (y/y) due to unplanned maintenance shutdowns Sales volumes PTA sales volumes mt kt 1,5 - 6% 1,4 1,4 1,34 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,26 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 137 134 146 115 110 1,1 1,0 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q1
Slide 16: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 16
Slide 17: CAPEX PLN 653 m in 3Q13; almost PLN 1,5 bn for 9M13
CAPEX PLN 653 m in 3Q13; almost PLN 1,5 bn for 9M13 CAPEX 9M13 – split by segments CAPEX 9M13 – split by growth and maintenance/regulatory PLN m PLN m Upstream 129 1 491 1 491 218 5,8 218 290 59 Downstream Growth 631 5,1 214 284 581 129 Maintenance/ 860 Regulatory Energy Refining Retail Petchem Corp
Slide 18: Upstream – Organic projects in Poland and on the Latvian shelf
Upstream Organic projects – in Poland and on the Latvian shelf 1 Unconventional projects (shale gas and closed gas) PROJECT PROJECT KAMBR KAMBR 10 exploration concessions / 9 th km2 8 wells finished, including: 6 vertical and 2 horizontal as well as first fracking Lublin Shale In 3Q13, 1 vertical we
Slide 19: Upstream M&A projects – acquisition process of TriOil in Canada
Upstream M&A projects – acquisition process of TriOil in Canada Transaction Assets 15 September 2013 ORLEN Upstream signed an arrangement Assets portfolio concentrated in the Canadian province of Alberta agreement to acquire 100% shares of TriOil Resources Ltd. covering 3 areas - Lochend, Kaybob and
Slide 20: Energy Projects' realization
Energy Projects’ realization Strategic assumptions Building a 463 MWe CCGT plant in Wloclawek Concentration on industrial cogeneration – projects with the highest In 3Q13, ground and foundation on site were in progress – boiler profitability / the lowest risk foundation, cooling water pipeline found
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 21
Slide 22: Cash flow
Cash flow PLN 1,2 bn cash flow from operations Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn Working capital change by PLN (-) 0,2 bn 1,4 1,2 -0,2 0,2 0,1 -0,4 Net inflow VAT paid from Net inflow -0,7 before sales of obligatory from CAPEX Change in Repayment of loan Net outflow
Slide 23: Debt – Safe financial conditions
Debt Safe financial conditions Net debt and gearing Covenant – net debt/EBITDA below 3,5 PLN bn, % Financial gearing, % Net debt/EBITDA LIFO Net debt/EBITDA 2,4 2,35 26,9 25,0 24,4 22,1 2,2 2,12 17,8 2,0 1,94 1,86 1,8 1,65 1,65 8,6 1,58 6,8 1,6 1,46 5,9 5,2 1,41 4,8 1,4 1,52 1,2 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Slide 24: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q13 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Investments Liquidity and debt Outlook 4Q13 24
Slide 25: Outlook 4Q13
Outlook 4Q13 Macro - till 18.10.2013 Maintenance shutdowns Model refining margin with B/U differential: 2,4 USD/bbl; PKN ORLEN – unplanned shutdown of Polyethylene unit (BOP) decrease by (-) 1,1 USD/bbl (q/q) and finalization of H-Oil and Hydrogen Recovery Unit from 3Q13 Unipetrol – Fluidal Catalyti
Slide 26: Thank You for Your attention
Thank You for Your attention www.orlen.pl For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl 26
Slide 27: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 27
Slide 28: Results – split by quarters
Results – split by quarters (PLN, m) 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 ∆ y/y 9M13 9M12 ∆ Revenues 30 392 28 311 31 654 -4% 86 175 88 856 -3% EBITDA LIFO 796 837 1 552 -49% 2 565 4 110 -38% Effect LIFO 362 -439 458 -21% -130 337 - EBITDA 1 158 398 2 010 -42% 2 435 4 447 -45% Depreciation -541 -535 -562 -4% -1 614 -1 68
Slide 29: Results - split by segments
Results - split by segments 3Q13 (PLN, m) Refining Retail Petrochemicals Upstream Corporate functions Total EBITDA LIFO 52 450 399 -10 -95 796 Effect LIFO 328 0 34 0 0 362 EBITDA 380 450 433 -10 -95 1 158 Depreciation -237 -89 -183 0 -32 -541 EBIT 143 361 250 -10 -127 617 EBIT LIFO -185 361 216 -10
Slide 30: EBITDA LIFO - split by segments
EBITDA LIFO - split by segments (PLN, m) 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 ∆ y/y 9M13 9M12 ∆ Refining 52 88 996 -95% 416 2 235 -81% Refining - LIFO effect 328 -412 397 -17% -153 332 - Retail 450 369 360 25% 944 818 15% Petrochemicals 399 531 339 18% 1 607 1 497 7% Petrochemicals - LIFO effect 34 -27 61 -44% 23 5 360%
Slide 31: Results 3Q13 - split by companies
Results 3Q13 - split by companies Others and IFRS ORLEN consolidation PLN, m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 22 986 4 085 6 865 -3 544 30 392 EBITDA LIFO 457 36 -16 319 796 Effect LIFO 1) 230 83 55 -6 362 EBITDA 687 119 39 313 1 158 Depreciation -256 -92 -95 -98 -54
Slide 32: EBITDA LIFO in 3Q13 – split by segments and companies
EBITDA LIFO in 3Q13 – split by segments and companies Others and IFRS consolidation PLN, m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 4) ORLEN Lietuva 4) corrections Total Refining 1) -44 -44 8 132 52 Retail 316 24 4 106 450 Petrochemicals 2) 274 59 0 66 399 Upstream -10 0 0 0 -10 Corporate functions 3) -79 -3 -28 15
Slide 33: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group Key elements of the profit and loss account 1 IFRS, USD m 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 ∆ y/y 9M13 9M12 ∆ Revenues 2 142 1 723 2 323 -8% 6 122 5 691 8% EBITDA LIFO -4 5 100 - 39 128 -70% EBITDA 13 -12 141 -91% 34 138 -75% EBIT -6 -30 126 - -20 93 - Net result -5 -24 93 - -29 44 - EBITDA LIFO in
Slide 34: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group Key elements of the profit and loss account 1 IFRS, CZK m 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 ∆ y/y 9M13 9M12 ∆ Revenues 24 859 24 710 28 407 -12% 74 345 80 900 -8% EBITDA LIFO 235 663 1 170 -80% 1 336 2 571 -48% EBITDA 737 -1 1 624 -55% 1 276 2 488 -49% EBIT 160 -588 911 -82% -498 366 - Net result -130
Slide 35: Macro environment in 4Q13 (q/q)
Macro environment in 4Q13 (q/q) Crude oil price flat Refining margin and B/U decrease Average Brent Crude Oil price, USD/bbl Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl differential margin 0 USD/bbl 9,1 113 0,7 110 110 110 110 5,8 6,0 - 1,1 USD/bbl 102 5,5 1,1 1,7 0,7 8,4 3,5 0,2 2,4
Slide 36: Macro environment in 2013
Macro environment in 2013 14 12 ORLEN Group model refining margin 2012 average 2013 2013 average 2012 10 8 5,7 USD/bbl 6 4 4,0 USD/bbl 2 0 -2 January February March April May June July August September October November December 5 Ural/Brent differential 2012 average 2013 2013 average 2012 4 3 2 1,3
Slide 37: Production data
Production data 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 ∆ (y/y) ∆ (q/q) 9M13 9M12 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN (tt) 7 461 6 663 7 431 0% 12% 21 127 20 448 3% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 96% 86% 96% 0 pp 10 pp 91% 87% 4 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (tt) 4 095 3 636 3 759 9% 13% 11 235 11 251 0% Utilizati
Slide 38: Dictionary
Dictionary PKN ORLEN model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input: crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent Crude quotations. Spot market quotations. Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural
Slide 39: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 40: www.orlen.pl
www.orlen.pl For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl 40