Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — Credit Suisse 26th Annual Chemical and Ag Science Conference (September 2013)
23 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Sep 16, 2013
Slide 1: The Mosaic Company Credit Suisse 26th Annual Chemical and Ag Science Conference
The Mosaic Company Credit Suisse 26th Annual Chemical and Ag Science Conference Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic President and Chief Executive Officer September 2013 Exhibit 99.2
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
Safe Harbor Statement Safe Harbor This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon
Slide 3: Phosphate and Potash Outlook
Phosphate and Potash Outlook Over-reaction to the break-up of BPC No change to our positive long-term outlook Weaker fundamentals near term
Slide 4: Weaker Fundamentals Near Term
Weaker Fundamentals Near Term $ MT Plant Nutrient Prices Urea - fob Yuzhny DAP - fob Tampa MOP - c&f Brazil Source: Fertecon, CRU and ICIS
Slide 5: Several Factors Exacerbate Fundamentals
Several Factors Exacerbate Fundamentals Cautious Sentiment Weaker Supply and Demand Fundamentals Currency Headwinds BPC Announcement Seasonal Slowdown
Slide 6: Guidance Update: Third Quarter 2013
Guidance Update: Third Quarter 2013 Business Segment Category Previous Guidance – Calendar Year 2013 New Guidance – Calendar Year 2013 Potash Q3 Sales volume Q3 MOP selling price Q3 Gross margin rate Q3 Operating rate 1.8 – 2.1 million tonnes $330 - $360 per tonne Mid to high 30 percent Below 75 per
Slide 7: Demand Still a Tale of Two Hemispheres
Demand Still a Tale of Two Hemispheres 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 FCST Mil Nutrient Tonnes Brazil Phosphate and Potash Shipments Phosphate Potash Source: ANDA, Mosaic FCST Mil Tonnes India DAP and MOP Shipments DAP Shipments MOP Imports Fertilizer Year Ending March 30 Source: FAI,
Slide 8: Affordability Underpins Demand
Affordability Underpins Demand 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric Average Source: Green Markets, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
Slide 9: The ABCs of the Food Story
The ABCs of the Food Story 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Mil Tonnes Source: USDA and Mosaic World Grain and Oilseed Use Actual for U.S. Ethanol Actual Forecast for U.S. Ethanol Forecast
Slide 10: Long-Term P&K Demand Forecasts
Long-Term P&K Demand Forecasts Source: Mosaic MMT World Phosphate Shipments Most Likely Scenario Asia Latin America North America Other MMT KCl World Potash Shipments Most Likely Scenario Asia Latin America North America Other
Slide 11: Balanced Outlook for Global P&K Markets
Balanced Outlook for Global P&K Markets Source: Mosaic Global Phosphate Capacity, Production and Opr Rate Most Likely Scenario MMT 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Op Rate Capacity Production Op Rate 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% MMT KCl Global Potash Capacity, Production and Operating Rate Most Likely Sc
Slide 12: Responses to Potash Mis-Characterizations
Responses to Potash Mis-Characterizations Supply and demand determine price The economic rationale for legal export associations is efficiency. Canpotex delivers large cost savings. Mosaic is cost competitive
Slide 13: Supply and Demand Determine Price
Supply and Demand Determine Price $ MT c&f $ ST fob Terminal Blend Grade Muriate of Potash Prices fob U.S. Midwest Warehouse c&f Brazil Source: Green Markets and ICIS Brazil Midwest
Slide 14: Supply and Demand Determine Price
Supply and Demand Determine Price 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 1000 Tonne KCl Source: Fertecon Data File February 2013 Former Soviet Union Potash Exports 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1000 Tonne KCl Source: Fertecon Data File February 2013 Former Soviet U
Slide 15: Supply and Demand Determine Price
Supply and Demand Determine Price $ MT c&f Brazil $ ST fob Midwest Terminal Blend Grade Muriate of Potash Prices fob U.S. Midwest Warehouse c&f Brazil Source: Green Markets and ICIS
Slide 16: Mosaic's Cost Position
Mosaic’s Cost Position Our Financial Reports: Brine Management Elevates Costs • Domestic freight is included in Mosaic’s revenue and cost of goods sold. • Prior to tolling agreement increased reported costs per tonne. • Resources Taxes are included in Mosaic’s costs of goods sold. Mosaic Sask Source
Slide 17: Putting the Pieces Together
Putting the Pieces Together Over-reaction to BPC breakup Long-term outlook unchanged Supply and demand determine price Weaker near- term fundamentals Cost Competitive
Slide 18: pREHOLD,
pREHOLD, BS ® p PEOPLE & %, © % i O O O MARKET | ACCESS INNOVATION GROWTH i Mosaic
Slide 19: Our Balance Sheet: A Powerful Advantage
Our Balance Sheet: A Powerful Advantage $2 Billion of Surplus Cash $3 Billion of Debt Capacity Share Repurchases ARO Escrow Strategic Investments *See additional detail on reconciliation at back of slides
Slide 20: Our Ultimate Goal: Strong TSR
Our Ultimate Goal: Strong TSR Execute our strategy Return capital to shareholders Deliver strong value Our Total Shareholder Return goal: Top 3 among 10 global crop nutrient peers
Slide 21: Mosaic
Mosaic
Slide 22: Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations
Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 As of May 31, 2013 US$ Millions US$ Millions Net earnings 1,889 $ 1,930 $ 2,515 $ $ 2,350 $ + Interest (income) expense, net (19) (19) + Income tax expense + Depreciation, depletion & amortization EBITDA 2,816 $ 3,130
Slide 23: Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations FY13
Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations FY13 * Other represents freight costs, KMAG production costs, impacts of Esterhazy tolling tonnes, changes in inventory levels, and other Potash Segment US$ Millions, except per tonne COGS 1,918 $ - Unrealized gain on derivatives (13) - Deprec
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