Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Corporate Update (April 2025)
53 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s corporate update, Apr 28, 2025
Slide 1: Carolinas Resource Plan Meeting 2
Carolinas Resource Plan Meeting 2 April 28, 2025 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 1
Slide 2: Meeting recording notice
Please note, this meeting is being recorded. Presentations will be posted on the IRP website and discussion portions will be temporarily stored for internal purposes only to ensure accuracy of meeting notes. 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 2
Slide 3: Safety
Safety April is Distracted Driving Awareness Month Being an attentive and alert driver can help prevent crashes that lead to unintentional injury and death. With the wide use of smartphones in the United States, distracted driving has become an important traffic safety topic. While cellphones and na
Slide 4: Facilitator of 2025 Engagement: Great Plains Institute (GPI)
Facilitator of 2025 Engagement: Great Plains Institute (GPI) Benjamin Stafford Alissa Bemis Trevor Drake Senior Policy Meeting & Vice President, Manager Administrative Manager Energy Systems Aileen Cole Audrey Negro Hallie Turner Senior Policy Meeting & Policy Associate Research Specialist Administr
Slide 5: Agenda – Public Meeting 2
Agenda – Public Meeting 2 9:00 – 9:05 a.m. Open & Safety Moment Benjamin Stafford, GPI 9:05 – 9:10 a.m. Agenda & Meeting Structure Benjamin Stafford, GPI 9:10 – 9:35 a.m. Feedback from Engagement Meeting 1 Benjamin Stafford, GPI 9:35 – 10:05 a.m. Load Forecasting Methodology Ben Passty, Phil Stillma
Slide 6: Meeting Structure
Meeting Structure 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 6
Slide 7: Meeting Ground Rules
Meeting Ground Rules Respect each other: Chatham House Rule: Focus on today’s topics: Help us to collectively uphold Empower others to voice their Please respect the scope of respect for each other's perspective by respecting the today’s meeting to make the most experiences and opinions, even in Cha
Slide 8: Attendee Roles: Observers
Attendee Roles: Observers ▪ Please use the "Q&A" feature on the menu at the bottom of your screen to submit questions to presenters and technical representatives. ▪ We will address questions as time permits. ▪ Questions submitted through the Q&A feature will be displayed as they are answered. This a
Slide 9: Attendee Roles: Technical Representatives
Attendee Roles: Technical Representatives ▪ Technical representatives ▪ To manage participation, please use the “Raise hand" feature have registered in to indicate you would like to join the conversations (observers advance. do not use the “Raise hand" feature). ▪ Technical representatives Click on
Slide 10: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials and presentation recordings* will be uploaded to the website: www.duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan Questions/comments can be submitted through the "Contact Us" form on the website or send an email to DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net ▪ *Q&A portions of meetings
Slide 11: Proposed Engagement Timeline
Proposed Engagement Timeline March April May June MEETING 1 MEETING 2 MEETING 3 MEETING 4 March 13 April 28 May 22 Late June Resource Planning & the Load Forecasting & Demand-Side Supply-Side Modeling Analytical Framework & Changing Energy Landscape Modeling Assumptions Assumptions & Tech Updates Fo
Slide 12: Duke Energy IRP Teammates
Duke Energy IRP Teammates Matt Kalemba BJ Byers Karen Hall Emma Goodnow VP Integrated Manager IRP Modeling Resource Planning Regulatory Director IRP Strategic Resource Planning & Analytics & Strategy Director Integration Glen Snider Jennifer Poppler Mike Quinto Dylan Lustig Managing Director Manager
Slide 13: Meeting 2 Technical Representatives
Meeting 2 Technical Representatives Technical Representatives: Taylor Allred James McLawhorn Coastal Conservation League Carolina Utility Customers Association & Carolina Industrial Group for Fair Utility Rates Forest Bradley-Wright American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Eddy Moore Souther
Slide 14: Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation
Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 14
Slide 15: Stakeholder Meeting 1 | Feedback Themes
Stakeholder Meeting 1 | Feedback Themes Portfolios – Clean energy transition – broad and applicable range of future consider climate change impacts scenarios that consider resource and associated emissions in models mix, cost, climate impacts, and risk and forecasts, impacts to pace of management; d
Slide 16: Load Forecast
Load Forecast 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 16
Slide 17: Load Forecasting Methodology Overview
Load Forecasting Methodology Overview Inputs Energy Forecast Baseline Forecast and Validation Adjustment Econometric Baseline Data Weather Peak Load UEE, BTM, EV, ED Modeling by Energy Gathering Normalization Forecast Adjustments Customer Class Forecast ▪ Historical energy consumption and ▪ Test all
Slide 18: Primary Forecast Drivers by Customer Class
Primary Forecast Drivers by Customer Class Retail Load Residential Commercial Industrial Government ▪ Population ▪ Gross Domestic Product ▪ Manufacturing ▪ Employment ▪ Income ▪ Income Employment ▪ Rates ▪ Rates ▪ Rates ▪ Industrial Production ▪ Weather ▪ Weather ▪ Weather Indices ▪ Appliance Satura
Slide 19: Forecasting Process
Forecasting Process EXTERNAL DATA INTERNAL DATA Initial Forecast: Efficiency trends Large account trends Load shapes ▪ Customer Growth Multiple Itron SAE modeling runs ▪ MWh Sales Strategic Issues ▪ MW Peaks Appliance saturations Appliance status ▪ Rate design ▪ IVVC ▪ Other EV Load Forecast Weather
Slide 20: Peak and Hourly Load Estimation Process
Peak and Hourly Load Estimation Process Peak and Hourly Load Estimation Process External Source Data Load (MW) Itron/SAE Model Runs Internal Source Data DEC/DEP DEC/DEP Annual Forecasts Hourly Forecasts 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 20
Slide 21: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways The load forecast isn’t just about a number, but Goal is to understand the long-term about presenting a coherent understanding of growth in demand for energy and peaks relationships between the drivers, inputs, and resulting load forecasts ▪ One of the major inputs into the Companies’
Slide 22: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 22
Slide 23: Electric Vehicle Forecasting
Electric Vehicle Forecasting 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 23
Slide 24: Electric Vehicle Modeling – Guidehouse VAST
Electric Vehicle Modeling – Guidehouse Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool (“VAST”) 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 24
Slide 25: EV Forecast Model Sources
EV Forecast Model Sources The VAST model is updated by Guidehouse for the spring 2025 forecast (2025 CRP) Vehicle Adoption Charging Load Impacts Inputs Description Source Inputs Description Source Vehicle US vehicle registration by make, model Vehicle Adoption Number of BEVs and PHEVs IHS Markit Veh
Slide 26: EV Alternate Scenarios
EV Alternate Scenarios EV adoption scenarios are developed to capture a broad range of EV adoption possibilities Low Base High ▪ Higher EV cost ▪ Lower EV cost (~5% increase in MSRP) (~5% decrease in MSRP) Key Assumption Base case ▪ Lower EV availability and increased ▪ Higher EV availability and Di
Slide 27: Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasting
Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasting 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 27
Slide 28: Customer-Owned BTM Solar Capacity
Customer-Owned BTM Solar Capacity Carolina’s current capacity from DEC + DEP BTM Capacity Customers customer-owned behind-the- meter DERs through the end of March 2025. Solar Only 551.4 MW 60,376 Notes: ▪ Does not include utility-scale large Solar + ▪ distribution or transmission projects. Solar pai
Slide 29: Forecasting Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Solar
Forecasting Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Solar Forecasted Adoptions Based on the regression equation and the forecasted Historical Payback future payback curve Based on market data Projected Payback Economic view based on: System Size Regression Model ▪ System cost Based on historical connections Develops
Slide 30: Behind-the-Meter Solar Alternate Scenarios
Behind-the-Meter Solar Alternate Scenarios Low Base High ▪ Payback model adjustments ▪ Payback model adjustments Key Assumption ▪ Reduced IRA credits ▪ Enhanced IRA credits Base case Differences ▪ High system costs ▪ Low system costs ▪ Reduced adoption outlook ▪ Enhanced adoption outlook 2025 Caroli
Slide 31: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 31
Slide 32: BREAK
BREAK 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 32
Slide 33: Role of Grid Edge and Customer Programs in Resource Planning
Role of Grid Edge and Customer Programs in Resource Planning 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 33
Slide 34: What Is the Grid Edge?
What Is the Grid Edge? Bulk Electric System Distribution Grid Customer Grid Edge What is the value to our customers? ? Engaging with our customers to reduce and manage load at the Grid Edge can be cost-effective Reliable Affordable Clean 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 34
Slide 35: Grid Edge Programs Actively Leverage Stakeholder Input
Grid Edge Programs Actively Leverage Stakeholder Input Beyond IRP stakeholder meetings, Grid Edge conducts regular stakeholder meetings Companies have operated the Carolinas EE/DSM Collaborative for over 15 years • Review program operations and performance • Discuss potential program modifications a
Slide 36: Grid Edge Programs
Grid Edge Programs Technology Energy Examples of Resources and Emerging Opportunities Voltage Optimization Baseload: Eliminates energy Integrated volt var control and capacity needs on the system Demand Response / Distributed Capacity Residential programs Managed charging Peaker Plant / Reserves: RE
Slide 37: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 37
Slide 38: Energy Efficiency / Demand-Side Management Forecast
Energy Efficiency / Demand-Side Management Forecast 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 38
Slide 39: Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Update
Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Update The Companies continue to forecast aggressive but achievable implementation of utility energy efficiency programs over the planning horizon. Updates since last filing: ▪ Using the fall 2024 ▪ Received updated MPS ▪ All three EE cases (low, ▪ Low Case – no lo
Slide 40: DEC Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast
DEC Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Eligible Retail Sales = Retail Sales excluding sales to nonresidential opt-out customers 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 40
Slide 41: DEP Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast
DEP Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Eligible Retail Sales = Retail Sales excluding sales to nonresidential opt-out customers 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 41
Slide 42: Potential Enablers for Long-Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates
Potential Enablers for Long-Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates Structural modifications and mechanisms that remove market barriers to program participation The Companies' NC Improve and Save Tariff On-Bill Program, which launched in 2024, has seen lower participation than expected to date. The delayed l
Slide 43: Potential Enablers for Long-Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates
Potential Enablers for Long-Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates Modifications expanding the potential measures and offers reducing consumption from the grid While discussions occurred during the stakeholder engagement around the revisions to the DSM/EE Cost Recovery and Utility Incentive Mechanisms, no
Slide 44: Demand Response
Demand Response 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 44
Slide 45: Demand Response Strategic Value
Demand Response Strategic Value Customer-Powered Plant Illustrative Year of Megawatt Load by Hour ▪ Peak load reduction capability is included in IRP planning Demand Response Peak Activation ▪ New use cases include load flexibility outside of peak, allowing for higher levels of renewables, 25,000 di
Slide 46: Residential and Small Business Load Control Tools
Residential and Small Business Load Control Tools 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 46
Slide 47: Winter Capability Growth
Winter Capability Growth Capability Growth Carolinas DR Capability Comparison – Prelim. Draft ▪ Currently modeling approximately 1,050 2000 MW of winter capability in 2030. 1800 ▪ 10% increase over the previous IRP in 1600 outer years. 1400 ▪ Modeling only includes approved programs, but Demand Resp
Slide 48: Growth Beyond IRP Projections
Growth Beyond IRP Projections Continued Growth in Customer Adoption of External Partnerships Distributed Energy Resources ▪ Leverage relationships with HVAC, solar installers and ▪ Examples include smart home device adoption, especially new home builders to promote thermostat, water thermostats, wat
Slide 49: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 49
Slide 50: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials and presentation recordings* will be uploaded to the website: www.duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan Questions/comments can be submitted through the "Contact Us" form on the website or send an email to DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net ▪ *Q&A portions of meetings
Slide 51: Recap | Proposed Engagement Timeline
Recap | Proposed Engagement Timeline March April May June MEETING 1 MEETING 2 MEETING 3 MEETING 4 March 13 April 28 May 22 Late June Resource Load Forecasting & Supply-Side Analytical Planning & the Demand-Side Modeling Framework & Changing Energy Modeling Assumptions & Follow-up Items Landscape Ass
Slide 52: Next Engagement Meeting
Next Engagement Meeting Engagement Meeting #3 will take place on May 22, 2025 Invitations to register for Meeting 3 will be sent in the coming weeks to all stakeholders. Registration will also be available on the website: www.duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 52
Slide 53: Thank you!
Thank you! 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 53