National Bank Of Greece S.a. · ATHEX:ETE
National Bank Of Greece — Debt Investor Presentation (March 2025)
53 slides from National Bank Of Greece's debt investor presentation, March 2025
Slide 1: Fixed Income Presentation March 2025
Fixed Income Presentation March 2025
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Not an offer for sale This presentation, which has been prepared by the National Bank of Greece (the Bank), is confidential and is being made available to selected recipients only and solely for the information of such recipients. This presentation may not be published, redistributed, tra
Slide 3: Contents
Contents 01 Key Highlights 02 Profitability 03 Capital, MREL & Liquidity 04 Asset Quality 05 BP 2025 - 2027 06 ESG Update 07 Macro 08 Appendix 3
Slide 4: Key Highlights
01 Key Highlights 4
Slide 5: Strong recurring profitability, double-digit credit expansion, increasing distributions
Strong recurring profitability, double-digit credit expansion, increasing distributions RoTE | % C:CI | % Loan balances | € b Capital | % PAT | € b PPI | € b Payout ratio | % Core RoTE 17.5% C:CI 31.8% Net Loan €3.1b Payout ratio 50%¹ expansion yoy Core PAT €1.3b +10% PPI €2.0b +5% NPE ratio 2.6% -1
Slide 6: Strong FY24 performance across key P&L metrics
Strong FY24 performance across key P&L metrics Core PAT¹ | € m NII | € m EPS² | € 0.52 1.31 1.44 NIM | bps 169 303 319 TBVPS | € 6.6 7.8 8.5 1,321 2.263 2.356 1.200 1.369 474 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 Fees | € m Cost of Risk | € Pure underlying Fees / Assets | bps 43 51 58 CoR | bps 70 64 53 cos
Slide 7: FY24 Group Core PAT at €1.3b, with better-than-expected top-line resilience
FY24 Group Core PAT¹ at €1.3b (+10% yoy), with better-than-expected top-line resilience P&L | Group (€ m) FY24 FY23 YoY 4Q24 QoQ P&L Highlights NII 2,356 2,263 +4% 575 -2% Group Core PAT¹ reaches €1.3b for FY24, on core income resilience (+5% yoy) and sustained Net fee & commission 427 382 +12% 115
Slide 8: B/S comparative advantages strengthened
B/S comparative advantages - CET1 capital, asset quality and liquidity - strengthened Key Balance sheet items FY24 9M24 6M24 3M24 FY23 Balance sheet Highlights Total Assets (€ b) 75.0 74.3 73.7 72.4 74.6 • FY24 performing loans up by an impressive €3.1b yoy, far outperform our upgraded Performing Lo
Slide 9: 2024 results outperform guidance
2024 results outperform guidance, delivering solid results across targets Guidance Guidance Delivery Financial performance metrics Actual Mar’24 Aug’24 FY24 NIM well above 300bps, P&L KPIs FY24E FY24E FY24 despite lower rates in 2H24 NIM (bps) <290 >300 319 marginally marginally NII growth yoy +4% l
Slide 10: Moody's currently with the highest rating at Baa1
Following this week’s NBG upgrade, Moody’s currently with the highest rating at Baa1 Latest rating action Ratings and next rating dates as Preferred agencies for of Mar 2025 any future debt issuance Date of last report 14 Mar 2025 | Upgrade 31 Jan 2025 | Upgrade 22 Nov 2024 | Affirmation 6 Sep 2024
Slide 11: Profitability
02 Profitability 11
Slide 12: Group Core PAT of €1.3b reflects higher core income and normalizing credit costs
Group Core PAT¹ of €1.3b reflects higher core income and steadily normalizing credit costs Group Core PAT¹ (€ m) Group Core PAT¹ (€ m) Yoy -8% 1,321 +10% yoy +4% +12% +5%² 1,200 1.321 +94 +45 +13 +19 +2 +19 1.200 -32 474 PPI: 1.903 2.003 +5% yoy PPI 1.255 CoR: CoR -217 -207 -180 -13% yoy FY22 FY23 F
Slide 13: NII & NIM reflect lower rates, but remain at high levels
NII & NIM reflect lower rates, but remain at high levels Group NII (€ m), Group NIM (bps) Domestic NII breakdown (€ m) -10bps -27bps NIM¹ (Group) 337 326 322 320 310 qoq from peak 594 578 561 563 553 3M Euribor (avg) -57bps -97bps 396 392 381 qoq from 356 299 peak 623 606 29 587 589 575 28 Reflectin
Slide 14: Performing Loans up by a record €3.1b in 2024
Performing Loans up by a record €3.1b in 2024; Lending spreads resilient Group Performing loan evolution (€ b) Greek PE lending spreads¹ (bps) Group 30.5 31.4 33.6 +10% yoy Total Performing 229 224 221 220 220 Int’l +8% yoy 31,8 +10% yoy 29,7 Consumer² Greece 28,8 624 618 620 617 617 SBLs 430 Due to
Slide 15: Fee growth +12% yoy
Fee growth +12% yoy spearheaded by investment product cross sell and higher lending Group fees (€ m) Retail fees¹ (€ m) Corporate fees¹ (€ m) Fees/Assets 51bps 58bps ΥοΥ ΥοΥ ΥοΥ 427 +12% 233 +15% 16 382 26 203 26 +19% 15 153 +6% 21 144 22 12 +4% 153 59 +18% 12 4 7 144 50 17 +21% 58 +3% 14 Driven by
Slide 16: Recurring expenses up by +5% yoy, C:CI resilient at 32%
Recurring expenses up by +5% yoy, C:CI resilient at 32% Group C:CI (%) Group headcount (#k) Optimization supported by digital strategy 19,8 implementation Cost/Core income % 31.6 31.8 +0.2pp yoy 7,8 6.3 at Bank level -c350 FTEs in YE24 VES Personnel cost/ core income % 16,8 17,1 10,8 10,1 9,4 8,8 1,
Slide 17: Capital, MREL & Liquidity
03 Capital, MREL & Liquidity 17
Slide 18: A stand-out B/S: well-capitalized, highly-liquid
A stand-out B/S: well-capitalized, highly-liquid, with large share of core deposit funding Group Assets1 (€ b) Group Liabilities1 (€ b) Cash & Interbank 1,7 reserves 5,4 Excess liquidity at €6.4b Interbank 2,7 Higher exposure to fixed income portfolio is a natural hedge against normalizing rates Sec
Slide 19: Profitability comfortably absorbs strong credit growth and a 50% payout
Profitability comfortably absorbs strong credit growth and a 50% payout FY24 capital movement¹ 21.1% +c3,2% CAD 20.2% -c1,4% +c0,1% -c1,5% Payout at 50% of 2024 earnings 19,8% CET1 17,8% 18,3% 2 FY23 FY24 Profitability RWAs Other FY24 before payout Payout FY24 RWAs €37.7b €37.5b 1 Including period P
Slide 20: Significant buffer to capital requirements
Significant buffer to capital requirements Requirements CET1 Req P2R CCoB CCyB* O-SII buffer Of which 21,1% 2,8% Tier 2 18,3% 6,8% 14,3% 6,7% 1,0% 11,6% 0,1% 2,5% 9,6% 1,0% 2,8% 2,5% 0,1% 1,6% 8,0% 4,5% Min CET1 Req Actual min CET1 Req CET1 FY24 Total Capital Req Total Capital FY24 *According to rel
Slide 21: MREL resources above final MREL target
MREL resources above final MREL target (% of RWAs) MREL targets MREL resources Static B/S as of 31.12.2024 MREL CBR CET1 Tier 2 Senior Preferred ▪ Single point of entry and issuance from Parent Company National Bank of Greece S.A. 28,0% ▪ The Bank’s MREL resources as of FY24 and 26,80% c27% pro form
Slide 22: Switch from net cash position to fixed income securities
Switch from net cash position to fixed income securities as ECB rates decline Cash & reserves, Net Interbank (€ b) NBG Funding Cost (bps) 378 396 392 381 NBG is a net lender in Excess cash funds 336 356 the interbank market 8.0 6.4 placed in fixed 3M Euribor (avg) 299 income securities, 264 up by €3
Slide 23: Improving deposit mix and hedges absorb deposit spread compression
Improving deposit mix and hedges comfortably absorb deposit spread compression Group deposits evolution (€ b) Greek deposit spreads¹ (bps) & NII (€m) Group 57.1 55.6 57.1 57.0 57.6 +€0.5b yoy Demand Int’l 390 386 375 350 Spread drops 293 on lower Euribor by 55,1 54,9 54,8 55,2 57bps in 4Q24 Greece 5
Slide 24: Asset Quality
04 Asset Quality 24
Slide 25: Favorable asset quality trends drive NPE ratio to 2.6%
Favorable asset quality trends drive NPE ratio to 2.6% Domestic NPE stock per category | 4Q24 (€ b) NPE balance change (€ b, Bank) o/w: €0.2b or c31% <30dpd o/w: €0.1b or c73% <30dpd NPE inflows (+) 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,7 0,6 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 Curings -0,1 -0,0 0,0 -0,1 0,3 -0,0 -0,0 0,2 Debt fgv
Slide 26: FNPEs mostly comprised <30dpd exposures, support curings
FNPEs mostly comprised <30dpd exposures, support curings NPE ratios and coverage | 4Q24 Domestic forborne stock (€ b) | 4Q24 Collateral coverage¹ 71% 59% 63% FNPEs <30 dpd 0,3 NPE coverage NPE ratio 3,2% at 98% FPEs 0,7 2,5% 2,6% 2,2% €1.1b FNPEs 31-90dpd 0,0 FNPEs >90dpd 0,0 Stage 3 62% 55.6% 40% 5
Slide 27: Sector-leading coverage levels across stages
Sector-leading coverage levels across stages and sector-leading S2 ratio Group gross loan stage evolution (€ b) Group S2 ratio and coverage (%) Group S3 ratio and coverage (%) Δ yoy 1,3 1,2 1,2 0,9 -0.3 Stage 3 o/w: €0.7b FPEs €1.5b SICR €0.2b +30dpd Stage 2 3,1 2,6 2,4 2,4 -0.7 9,3% 7,4% 7,0% 6,5%
Slide 28: BP 2025-27
05 BP 2025-27 28
Slide 29: 2025-27 Business Plan guidance
2025-27 Business Plan guidance Actual Business Plan 2025 -2027 P&L FY24 FY25E FY27E NIM (bps) 319 >280 >280 NII (€b) 2.36b >€2.1b >€2.3b Fees growth (%) 12% 3Y CAGR >8% OpEx growth (%) 5%¹ 3Y CAGR c5% Financial Cost of Risk (bps) 53 <50 <40 performance EPS² (€) 1.4 c1.3 c1.5 metrics >17% on >18% on
Slide 30: Robust top line performance on strong fee growth and NIM resilience
Robust top line performance on the back of strong fee growth and NIM resilience NIM, bps 300 • Resilient NIM above 280bps throughout the BP horizon, despite a -200bps reduction in 319 100 benchmark rates -100• NII sensitivity managed through hedging and >280 >280 investment in fixed rate assets -300
Slide 31: Disciplined OpEx supporting growth; CoR normalization continues
Disciplined OpEx supporting growth and innovation; CoR normalization continues C/I, % 300 • Operating expenses expected at a mid single digit growth (c5% CAGR in the 3Y period) c35% c35% 100 supporting growth and technology investments 31% -100 • New union wage increases and depreciation charges fro
Slide 32: Capital generation supports growth and payouts
Capital generation supports growth and payouts, maintaining significant buffers Targeted Group CET1 Ratio evolution, % c10% Capital buffers post payouts of >4% • CET1 above 18% throughout the BP horizon c23% -c3% • Organic capital generation comfortably -c2% absorbs strong credit expansion and >18%
Slide 33: Business Plan macro assumptions
Business Plan macro assumptions Real GDP yoy growth CPI yoy growth Greek Government Bond 10Y yield aop 2,7% 3,4% 3,2% 2,3% 2,3% 3,1% 3,1% 2,2% 2,0% 2,0% c2% 1,8% 2024A¹ 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E RRE prices yoy growth Unemployment rate aop Interest rates, bps 1
Slide 34: ESG Update
06 ESG Update 34
Slide 35: Commitment to Net-zero by 2050
Commitment to Net-zero by 2050, with interim targets and transition plans in place NBG is the first Greek systemic bank to join PCAF1 and commit to sector-specific targets in the context of the NZBA2 Sector/ Scopes Unit of Reference Scenario / 2022 2024 2030 Delta 2024 Transition Portfolio Covered M
Slide 36: Creating value for businesses and households, enabling Greece's transition
Creating value for businesses and households, while enabling Greece's transition Leading • NBG Green Bond second issuance (€650m & 45% of outstanding senior bonds) Corporate PE balances to RES producers (€ b) sustainable • Project Finance team with deep energy sector expertise (incl. RES, storage, e
Slide 37: Role-modelling environmentally responsible practices
Role-modelling environmentally responsible practices Operations Governance Data, systems & reporting • Energy-efficient buildings: • Board & Executive oversight: • Advanced ESG data & systems: o Real estate masterplan programme in progress o Board Innovation & Sustainability Committee o ESG360 platf
Slide 38: Strong participation in ratings / indices
Strong participation in ratings / indices; recognition of our ESG activity and best practices Years of ESG ratings & indices 2022 2023 2024 Comments coverage ESG rating BBB A A 11th ISS Corporate rating C- C- C (Prime) 8th Top 20% banks globally, #1 in Greece ISS ESG score (E | S | G) (1|2|2) (1|1|2
Slide 39: Additional Information
Additional Information Second National Bond Sustainable Framework Party BankOpinion of Greece Second Party Opinion Sustainability and Green Bond Frameworks Sustainability and Green Bond Frameworks National Bank of Greece Sustainable Bond Framework 39
Slide 40: Macro
07 Macro 40
Slide 41: Steady economic growth momentum
Steady economic growth momentum underpinned by increasingly differentiated drivers Greece’s economy remains on a steady upward trajectory, with monthly activity Key macroeconomic 180 and financial index, 171 indicators for 4Q24 and January 2025 pointing to a slight acceleration in activity. indicato
Slide 42: Credible growth catalysts to cushion emerging risks
Credible growth catalysts to cushion emerging risks Forward-looking indicators point to a steady pace of GDP growth near 2.5% yoy in Greece: Business 60 index, 60 confidence 4Q24 and early 2025, despite weak external environment: indicators point to 3m m.a. 40 40 ─ Economic sentiment firmed to 108.6
Slide 43: Increase in household real disposable income to sustain consumption
Further increase in household real disposable income to sustain consumption growth Unemployment rate at a 8 yoy % 30 Increasing labor income and 24 yoy 15 15-year low and labor force consumer credit bolster €b participation rates at all-time 6 25 household spending, 10 highs, combined with firming o
Slide 44: Corporate activity remains solid
Corporate activity remains solid with business investment heading to an all-time high 4 4 Strong production trends 70 70 Industry accounts for 1/2 of the contribution in real GVA growth in pps yoy index and resilient demand 65 65 economy-wide output growth in prospects keep Greece’s 9M24, reflecting
Slide 45: Supportive fiscal and liquidity conditions with RRF deployment
Supportive fiscal and liquidity conditions combined with increasing deployment of RRF Primary surplus to exceed the 210 House prices up by 71.4% in 150 150 official target of 2.5% of GDP, %GDP %GDP 3Q24 vs their 3Q17 low but still index, surplus with debt-to-GDP ratio 12 far below the EA equivalent,
Slide 46: Appendix
08 Appendix 46
Slide 47: NBG Outstanding MREL Issuances
NBG Outstanding MREL Issuances ETEGA 2.75 ETEGA 7.25 ETEGA 8.75 ETEGA 8.00 ETEGA 4.50 ETEGA 5.875 ETEGA 3.50 10/08/2026 11/22/2027 06/02/2027 01/03/2034 01/29/2029 06/28/2035 11/19/2030 ISIN XS2237982769 XS2558592932 XS2562483441 XS2595343059 XS2756298639 XS2790334184 XS2940309649 Amount (€m) 500 50
Slide 48: Balance Sheet & P&L
Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet | Group P&L | Group €m 4Q24 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 €m 4Q24 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 Cash & Reserves 5,380 8,397 8,356 8,307 9,015 NII 575 589 587 606 623 Interbank placements 2,679 2,662 2,573 2,527 2,792 Net fee & commission 115 108 106 100 109 income Securities 20,393 18,
Slide 49: Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International
Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International Greece International €m 4Q24 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 €m 4Q24 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 NII 553 563 561 578 594 NII 22 26 26 28 29 Net fee & commission Net fee & commission 111 104 102 96 106 4 4 4 4 4 income income Core Income 664 667 662 673 700 Core Income 26
Slide 50: ESMA Alternative Performance Measures definitions
ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions This presentation contains financial data, which is compiled as a normal part of our financial reporting and management information systems. For instance, financial items are categorized as foreign or domestic on the
Slide 51: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Name Abbreviation Definition Assets held for sale -- Non-current assets held for sale Cash and Reserves -- Cash and balances with central banks Combined Buffer Requirement CBR Total CET1 capital required to meet the requi
Slide 52: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Minorities -- Non-controlling interest MREL -- The minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities under the BRRD. Net Interbank -- Due from banks less due to banks, excluding the TLTRO facility Net Interest Ma
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