Intercontinental Exchange Inc. · NYSE:ICE
Intercontinental Exchange — Natural Gas Winter Fundamentals & Outlook Webinar (November 2022)
29 slides from Intercontinental Exchange's conference presentation, Nov 9, 2022
Slide 1: Natural Gas Winter Fundamentals & Outlook
Natural Gas Winter Fundamentals & Outlook Wednesday, 9 November 2022
Slide 2: Today's speakers
Today’s speakers Tina Hoang – Account Manager, ICE - Moderator David Margolin - Meteorologist, ICE James Bevan - Vice President of Research, Vice President of Operations, Criterion Research 2|
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda § Welcome – Tina Hoang § 2022-23 Winter Weather Outlook § Natural Gas Supply & Demand Fundamentals § Q&A 3|
Slide 4: ICE Weather Data & Analytics
ICE Weather Data & Analytics David Margolin Meteorologist, ICE 4|
Slide 5: An Overview of ICE Data Services Desktop Solutions
An Overview of ICE Data Services Desktop Solutions to help Evaluate the Risks and Impacts of Weather on the Energy Markets Model Guidance: – SEAS – CFS Historical Data: – Evaluate Trends Performance Tools: – Progression/Volatility Tool for evaluating real-time model performance Includes both weather
Slide 6: Long-Range Guidance: Maps
Long-Range Guidance: Maps ICE Data Services offers temperature, precipitation, and upper-air month-ahead forecasts from NOAA and the ECMWF modeling centers SEAS (ECMWF) CFS (NOAA) Source: ICE Connect, November 2022 - ICE Data, LP 6 CONFIDENTIAL
Slide 7: Long-Range Guidance: Data
Long-Range Guidance: Data ICE Data Services offers temperature, precipitation, upper-air forecasts from NOAA's and ECMWF's modeling centers SEAS and ECEX model data for CONUS GWDDs ~Sao Paulo Source: ICE Connect, November 2022 - ICE Data, LP 7 CONFIDENTIAL
Slide 8: Model Guidance to Detect Pattern Signals
Model Guidance to Detect Pattern Signals that may Precede Major Cold and Warm Weather Regimes ICE Data Services provides weather maps and data that is important to meteorologists for detecting the occurrence of ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warmings’ (SSW) and ‘Sudden Stratospheric Coolings’ (SSC) . Why is
Slide 9: Data and Analytics to Study Weather Model Performance
Data and Analytics to Study Weather Model Performance ICE Data Services Desktop solutions offers volatility/performance tools for evaluating weather model performance and the potential for changes in the data. We call this the ‘Progression View’ as it provides real-time information on how models are
Slide 10: Data and Analytics to Study Climate Trends
Data and Analytics to Study Climate Trends ICE Data Services offers multiple historical data sources (CFSR and METAR) that are helpful in evaluating the impacts of climate change and other atmospheric oscillations on US Winter Weather. Blue Bars represent December GWDDs above (or colder) the 30yr Me
Slide 11: Data and Analytics to Study the relationship between Weather and Price
Data and Analytics to Study the relationship between Weather and Price ICE Data Services is provider for weather and price data and analytics. In this example (utilizing the ICE Python API) we evaluate last winter’s (2021-22) early season relationship between the Natural Gas market and the GEFS CONU
Slide 12: Natural Gas Supply & Demand Fundamentals
Natural Gas Supply & Demand Fundamentals James Bevan Vice President of Research, Vice President of Operations, Criterion Research 12|
Slide 13: Source: Criterion Research, LLC
13 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
Slide 14: Source: Criterion Research, LLC
14 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
Slide 15: Waha Started to Weaken After January 2022
Waha Started to Weaken After January 2022 15 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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16 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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17 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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18 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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19 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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20 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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21 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
Slide 22: Source: Criterion Research, LLC Source: Criterion Research, LLC
22 Source: Criterion Research, LLC Source: Criterion Research, LLC
Slide 23: Source: Criterion Research, LLC
23 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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Source: Criterion Research, LLC 24
Slide 25: Source: Criterion Research, LLC
25 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
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26 Source: Criterion Research, LLC
Slide 27: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 28: Thank you
Thank you
Slide 29: Limitations
Limitations This presentation contains information that is proprietary property of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., its affiliates, and/or Criterion Research or its affiliates, is not to be published, reproduced, copied, disclosed or used without the express written consent of Intercontinental Excha
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