Slide 1: Kick-Off Meeting
Kick-Off Meeting Task Force Local Redistribution of Injections and Offtakes May 15th, 2025
Slide 2: Workshop Agenda
Workshop Agenda A Setting the Scene & Context B Local Redistribution of Injections & Offtakes C Reference Context Creation D Wrap-up & Next steps
Slide 3: Setting the Scene & Context
-€ elia Setting the Scene & Context 96 + BR —__
Slide 4: General need for transparency and dialogue as a key enabler for the Energy Transition
General need for transparency and dialogue as a key enabler for the Energy Transition! 4
Slide 5: In a complex electricity system, advanced methods and extensive dialogue are essential
In a complex electricity system, advanced methods and extensive dialogue are essential for timely grid development! To (?) ~2025 ~2025 2050 Evolution towards net zero (RES, Electrification), energy autonomy (nuclear, …) and affordability From Focus on Market- & RES-integration Transitioning fossil f
Slide 6: The new Task Force Local Redistribution of Injection & Offtake
The new Task Force Local Redistribution of Injection & Offtake ? Why a new Taskforce? Grid capacities are critical to the economic & sustainable development of society Long lead times for grid development compared to residential and industrial development, making early accurate assumptions crucial W
Slide 7: Planning
Planning 2025 2026 May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 15/05 24/6 4/09 3/10 17/11 4/12 8/01 Public Consultation Workshop 3: Workshop 4: Workshop 5: Kick-Off & Workshop 1: Wor
Slide 8: Meetings, Governance and rules
Meetings, Governance and rules • The Task Force will meet at Elia’s headquarters, unless a different venue is decided on by the Chairman, in consultation with the members of the Task Force. • Participation to meetings through online platforms will be possible. • Meetings will be conducted in English
Slide 9: Local Redistribution of Injections & Offtakes
Local Redistribution of Injections & Offtakes 9
Slide 10: Local Redistribution of Injections & Offtakes Agenda
Agenda Local Redistribution of Injections & Offtakes 1. Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution Needs Detection Infrastructure Adaptation Dynamic portfolio management 2. Local redistribution Growth potentials capa
Slide 11: Local redistribution geographically splits aggregated grid usage values
Local redistribution is a process that geographically splits aggregated grid usage values, with the aim to assign a potential transmission grid connection point. Example: snapshot of grid model End 2022 Future target year ? Kick-Off | Task Force LRIO 11 Example for PV, Source: AdeqFlex2024-2034, Pla
Slide 12: Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context
Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution. Client connection studies follow a simplified process, but the principle of reference & local reference context remains applicable. Dynamic Macro-level Infrastructure Needs
Slide 13: Local redistribution uses technology-specific methodologies
Local redistribution uses technology-specific methodologies, that are depends on a variety of factors. 1 2 Aggregate National/Regional Redistributed Values Factors influencing additional uses or repartition keys for a certain target year for aggregates references - non exhaustive • Evolution of exis
Slide 14: Several references for different studies
Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution – Several reference for different studies. Dynamic Macro-level Infrastructure Needs detection portfolio Scenarios adaptation management Geographical redistribution 1 2 Best
Slide 15: Several references for different studies (comparison)
Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution – Several reference for different studies. 3 Local best estimate 2 Best estimate redistribution redistribution of forecasted profiles for forecasted profiles for all injecti
Slide 16: Local redistribution and reference grid
Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution. Dynamic Macro-level Infrastructure Needs detection portfolio Scenarios adaptation management Geographical redistribution 1 2 Best Estimate 3 4 Local best estimate Reference
Slide 17: Uses of each reference
Grid development studies require translating macro-level scenarios into a local reference context through local redistribution. 1 2 Best estimate Used for 4 redistribution of Reference Grid: • Identification of System Needs Target year power profiles forecasted profiles for Freeze of the updated • A
Slide 18: Reservations and allocations lower than aggregated expected capacity
Local redistribution: if reservations and allocations are lower than the aggregated expected capacity, growth potentials are used to compensate for the difference. For zone a For zone a 1 2A 3 2B 3 GW or TWh 1 Existing capacity 5c 5c Aggregated expected capacity at the 2 2 considered horizon + + 5b
Slide 19: Growth potentials progressively filled by reserved and allocated capacities
Local redistribution: growth potentials are progressively filled in by reserved and allocated capacities. After each reservation or allocation of capacity of a same technology and zone as the potential, zonal growth potential are adapted For zone a 1 2A 2B 3 *GW or TWh 1 Existing capacity 5c 5c 2 +
Slide 20: Reservations and allocations above the expected capacity
Local redistribution: case for which capacity reservations & allocations is above the expected capacity. For zone a For zone a 1 2A 3 2B 3 GW or TWh 1 Existing capacity 2 Aggregated expected capacity at the 2 considered horizon 4c 4 4c + + Expected growth on the considered 3 4b 3 4b horizon + Zone a
Slide 21: Local referential for connection studies and growth potential vs pre-reserved capacities
Example of local referential for connection studies & Difference between growth potential vs pre-reserved capacities. Example of connection studies (EOS-EDS) • 1 The scenarii building process, including public consultation on hypotheses, defines the evolution of the consumption and production to be
Slide 22: Periodicity of studies using local redistribution
The studies that use local redistribution and re-evaluation of local growth potential happen at different periodicities. Reference Grid Zonal Zonal Step where local infrastructure infrastructure redistribution is development development applied study A study X Added, removed or Added, removed or mod
Slide 23: C. Reference Context Creation
C. Reference Context Creation 23
Slide 24: From Data to Decisions: Reference Offtake and Injection creation
From Data to Decisions: Reference Offtake and Injection creation What: Injection and Offtakes for every node of the grid, categorized by technology and analyzed on an hourly basis for different target years How: By using advanced methodologies and products (macro to micro products, market flow-based
Slide 25: The Reference Context constitutes expected injections or offtakes per hour and substation
The Reference Context constitutes the expected injections or offtakes for each hour of the forecasted horizon, for each substation. Reference context hypothesis Load Grid Model static Macro scenarios Grid assumptions Reference inputs data management Offtakes Injection and Offtakes Based on metered d
Slide 26: Offtake Reference Context built from existing offtakes and planned evolutions
The Offtake Reference Context is built from existing offtakes, specific planned evolutions & redistributed aggregated macro targets. Example of a national consumption scenario Unknown location, remaining potential of a category is redistributed on existing offtakes per technology to meet macro targe
Slide 27: Offtake Reference Context build steps
The Offtake Reference Context is built from existing offtakes, specific planned evolutions & redistributed aggregated macro targets. Metered existing offtakes of the previous year Electric Vehicles Planned Evolution Redistributed aggregated targets Based on client scenarios - Variation of current co
Slide 28: Injection Reference Context computed by economic dispatch
The Injection Reference Context is computed by running an economic dispatch. The model includes Belgium and neighbouring countries, Belgium being subdivided into 22 parts. Market simulations use a flow-based methodology at bidding zone level and cover the European Union Input data (by subdivision) -
Slide 29: D. The Bigger Picture
-€ elia D. The Bigger Picture
Slide 30: Geographical redistribution is part of an interlinked methodology package
Geographical redistribution is part of a interlinked methodology Final portfolio photo for plan package for grid development. (after this, normally only minor updates in timings) 2025 2026 2027 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Public cons. Public cons. AdeqFlex Publication AdeqFlex 25 Publication
Slide 31: E. Next Steps
-€ elia E. Next Steps
Slide 32: Next Steps
Next Steps 2025 2026 May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 15/05 24/6 4/09 3/10 17/11 4/12 8/01 Public Consultation Workshop 3: Workshop 4: Workshop 5: Kick-Off & Workshop 1: W
Slide 33: Public Consultation
Public Consultation When? What? How? October 3rd, 2025 → Report describing the By email: November 17th, 2025 current redistribution usersgroup@elia.be methodologies Published on the Task Force’s webpage on October 3rd
Slide 34: Call for Evidence
Call for Evidence What? How? Follow-up Additional information that can Presentation in session – Integration in the Consultation improve the local redistributions Report, with Elia comments on their – Discuss of shared information to know integration in the future processes, such as: the view of the