Slide 1: ORLEN Group Consolidated Financial Results 3 quarter 2024
ORLEN Group Consolidated Financial Results 3 quarter 2024 Warsaw, 13 November 2024
Slide 2: Summary
Summary 01 Summary 02 Outlook 03 Supporting Slides 01
Slide 3: Solid operating results in a more challenging macro environment
Financial Results 3Q24 Solid operating results in a more challenging macro environment PLN bn 3Q23 3Q24 y/y Revenues 79,5 67,9 EBITDA LIFO* 10,3 8,8 EBITDA LIFO excluding one-offs and regulations 8,6 8,1 Cash flows from operations 6,0 8,6 CAPEX 7,9 6,8 Free cash flow -4,5 2,0 Net debt/EBITDA -0,09x
Slide 4: Macro deterioration in the refining not seen for years
Macro environment Macro deterioration in the refining not seen for years Refining margin1 -65% (r/r) USD/bbl Natgas TGEgasDA +2% (r/r) PLN/MWh 195 198 25 21,9 200 169 172 20 180 16,0 152 13,9 12,6 160 142 15 140 10 7,7 8,0 120 5 100 0 80 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24* 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24*
Slide 5: Normalization of operating results due to weaker macro
EBITDA LIFO Normalization of operating results due to weaker macro. No windfall charges to the Price Difference Payment Fund. PLN m 3 462 8 808 0 0 -394 3 312 1 077 949 520 0 0 0 0 -118 Label Label Label Label Refining Petrochemicals Energy Retail Upstream Gas Corporate EBITDA LIFO Label Label funct
Slide 6: High utilization of refineries. Lower margins
Refining High utilization of refineries. Lower margins EBITDA LIFO bridge PLN m Fuel yield Light distillates Middle distillates % +6 pp +1 pp -2 pp -1 346 1 866 91 82 83 79 77 85 31 31 36 36 36 35 1 483 520 54 60 46 47 43 42 -2 759 -70 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 EBITDA LIFO Macro Volumes Others E
Slide 7: Persisting market pressure
Petrochemicals Persisting market pressure EBITDA LIFO bridge PLN m Sales volumes by product kt Monomers Polymers Aromatics Fertilizers Plastics PTA +18 +7% +1% -7% 125 +42% 186 187 179 -16% 229 247 +16% 166 159 103 87 64 74 112 -85 -118 -136 -22 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 3Q23
Slide 8: Results influenced by lower margins and one-offs
Energy Results influenced by lower margins and one-offs EBITDA bridge PLN m EBITDA share by source PLN m -399 1 348 687 -109 -52 949 -194 949 -238 276 -271 -78 363 167 EBITDA Macro Volumes Others EBITDA RES CHP + heat CCGT + Energy Energy sales Valuation of Others EBITDA 3Q24 3Q23 3Q24 assets distri
Slide 9: Normalization of fuel margin (effect of low fuel margins in Poland in 3Q23)
Retail Normalization of fuel margin (effect of low fuel margins in Poland in 3Q23) EBITDA bridge PLN m Number of fuel stations and market share Country # stations y/y % market y/y +477 46 12 Poland 1 935 20 36,3 2,2 pp 590 1 077 Germany 606 0 6,3 0,2 pp -171 29,0 2,1 pp Czechia 439 5 600 Lithuania 3
Slide 10: Normalization of operational data. Increased operations in Norway.
Upstream Normalization of operational data. Increased operations in Norway. EBITDA bridge PLN m Average production kboe/d +3 523 +34,4 3 043 3 312 218,0 207,5 -10 184,3 189,3 154,9 310 180 -211 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 EBITDA Macro Volumes Impact of Others EBITDA 3Q23 regulations 3Q24 Macro (y/y) in
Slide 11: Increase in sales volumes and normalization of margins
Gas (trade and distribution) Increase in sales volumes and normalization of margins EBITDA bridge Trade and storage Distribution PLN m Sales by client groups SME Tariff customers 12% 10% -3 777 7 239 199 Industry -1 900 3 462 56,3 29% 6 849 -1 381 -695 TWh 3 104 390 358 Power Exchange EBITDA Macro V
Slide 12: Responsible and long-term perspective of financing of ORLEN Group
Debt Responsible and long-term perspective of financing of ORLEN Group EIB Revolving credit facility (RCF) Agreement signed with EIB on preferential terms compared to commercial banks. Loan agreement signed with a consortium of 16 Polish and international banks. Financing granted in the amount PLN 3
Slide 13: Outlook
Outlook 01 Summary 02 Outlook 03 Supporting Slides 02
Slide 14: Lower commodity prices supporting economic recovery in the region
Macro environment in 2024 and outlook for 4Q24 Lower commodity prices supporting economic recovery in the region Macro assumptions 2024 2023 y/y Outlook (4Q24 vs 4Q23) Segments Brent [USD/bbl] Higher trade margins limited by lower refining ~ 81,0 82,6 Projected increase of global demand for crude oi
Slide 15: ORLEN
= ORLEN
Slide 16: Supporting Slides
Supporting Slides 01 Summary 02 Outlook 03 Supporting Slides 03
Slide 17: Further reduction of planned CAPEX by ca. PLN 2,0 bn to ca. PLN 33 bn
CAPEX Further reduction of planned CAPEX by ca. PLN (-) 2,0 bn to ca. PLN 33 bn. Total CAPEX for 2024 was reduced by ca. PLN (-) 5,0 bn compared to the plan. Planned CAPEX 2024 PLN bn Main growth projects 2024 Retail Gas ~33 1,4 3,4 Refining Corporate functions Construction of Visbreaking unit 0,1 C
Slide 18: Macro environment
Macro environment Main macro indicators 3Q23 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24* Brent crude oil USD/bbl 86,7 85,0 80,3 -6% -7% 75,7 -6% Model refining margin1 USD/bbl 21,9 12,6 7,7 -39% -65% 7,98 4% Differential2 USD/bbl 0,9 1,0 1,1 -10% -22% -0,5 - Natural gas price TTF month-ahead PLN/MWh 152 137 153 12% 1% 174 14%
Slide 19: Results split by quarter
Results split by quarter PLN m 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 12M23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 Revenues 115 828 79 029 79 457 98 327 372 767 82 332 69 510 67 936 -11 521 EBITDA LIFO 19 944 10 934 10 258 13 574 60 312 8 384 5 104 8 808 -1 450 LIFO effect -1 171 -384 1 283 -634 -899 64 33 -324 -1 607 EBITDA 18 773 10 550 11
Slide 20: EBITDA LIFO split by segment
EBITDA LIFO split by segment PLN m 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 12M23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 Refining, incl: 5 485 2 536 1 866 594 8 971 2 272 2 622 520 -1 346 NRV -59 -121 -70 96 -154 111 -18 -118 -48 Hedging 364 51 -803 363 -26 -345 61 65 868 Valuation of CO2 contracts 52 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 Usage of historical inven
Slide 21: Results split by company
Results split by company PLN m ORLEN ORLEN Lietuva ORLEN Unipetrol ENERGA Group Other ORLEN Group Revenues 47 953 6 503 7 004 5 223 1 253 67 936 EBITDA LIFO 5 838 -171 56 654 2 431 8 808 LIFO effect -280 62 -103 - -3 -324 EBITDA 5 558 -109 -47 654 2 428 8 484 Depreciation 1 082 17 272 313 1 681 3 36
Slide 22: ORLEN Group refinery production data
ORLEN Group refinery production data ORLEN Group 3Q23 2Q24 3Q24 9M23 9M24 Crude oil throughput (kt) 10 048 9 356 10 052 0% 7% 29 057 28 957 0% Utilization 94% 88% 94% 0 pp 6 pp 91% 91% 0 pp ORLEN S.A.1 Crude oil throughput (kt) 5 538 5 637 5 882 6% 4% 16 303 17 114 5% Utilization 93% 96% 98% 5 pp 2
Slide 23: Glossary Disclaimer
Glossary Net debt = (short-term + long-term loans, borrowings Model refining margin = revenues (33% Gasoline + 48% Model refining margin = revenues (93,6% Products = Working capital (in balance sheet) = inventories + and bonds) cash Diesel + 13% HHO) - costs (100% input: 98% Brent crude 33% Gasoline
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