Bank Of Greece Sa · ATHEX:TELL

Bank Of Greece Sa — European Central Bank — Technical Presentation (September 2022)

27 slides from Bank Of Greece Sa's technical presentation, Sep 29, 2022

  1. Slide 1: GVC exporters' performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks

    GVC exporters’ performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks 29th September 2022 Laura Lebastard, Marco Matani and Roberta Serafini DG-E/EES www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  2. Slide 2: Motivation and findings

    Motivation and findings • COVID-19 crisis results in a combination of demand & supply shocks, domestically & internationally. Supply value chain trade as a source of vulnerability vs source of resilience • Our question: how different dimensions of GVC involvement affected exporters’ performance duri

  3. Slide 3: The reference literature

    The reference literature • Role of globalisation via final and intermediate goods trade in the propagation of the economic impact of the pandemic (Kohlscheen, Mojon, and Rees, 2020; Sforza and Steininger, 2020; Bonadio et al. 2021, Eppinger et al., 2020) • Heterogeneity of firms’ exposure to the pan

  4. Slide 4: What we do

    What we do • Monthly firm-product-country level data for France, from Customs until end-2021. Three phases of the pandemic:  February – April 2020  May – August 2020  September 2020 – December 2021 • Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on:  firms’ exports  probability of survival in the export market •

  5. Slide 5: Methodology and identification strategy

    Methodology and identification strategy • Methodology: difference-in-differences, logit model, and event study • Our sample: continuous exporters between July and December 2019 • Treatment period: Feb. 2020 – Dec. 2021 • Treated group: GVC firms - exporting firms that have imported intermediate inpu

  6. Slide 6: Exports by GVC status

    Exports by GVC status COVID-19 pandemic Global financial crisis (January 2020=100) (August 2008=100) 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Dec-21 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Continuous GVC Continuous non-GVC 120 6 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  7. Slide 7: Difference-in-differences, effect of GVC participation

    Difference-in-differences, effect of GVC participation ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + β GVC𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Robustness checks By firm-characteristics By sector 7 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  8. Slide 8: Event study, effect of GVC participation

    Event study, effect of GVC participation ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + σ24 𝑗=−12 β𝑗 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑗𝑡 ∗ GVC𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 95% confidence interval GVCparticipation*time FE 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Jul-21 Dec-21 8…

  9. Slide 9: Probability of survival in the export market, effect of GVC participation

    Probability of survival in the export market, effect of GVC participation 𝟙𝑖𝑡 = α + σ24 𝑗=−12 β𝑗 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑗𝑡 ∗ GVC𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 95% confidence interval GVCparticipation*time FE 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 -0.005 -0.010 -0.015 -0.020 -0.025 -0.030 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19…

  10. Slide 10: Effect of being downstream or upstream

    Effect of being downstream or upstream ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 ∗ GVC position above median𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β2 GV𝐶𝑖 ∗ (1 − GVC position above median𝑖 ) ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Other upstreamness measures Survival prob. 10 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  11. Slide 11: Effect of diversification of sourcing countries for core products

    Effect of diversification of sourcing countries for core products ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β2 GVC𝑖 ∗ DiversificationCoreProduct 𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Diff-in-diff by phase Logit - survival prob. 11 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  12. Slide 12: Effect of importing strategic products

    Effect of importing strategic products Strategic Non strategic 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.05 -0.10 -0.10 -0.15 -0.15 -0.20 -0.20 -0.25 -0.25 -0.30 -0.30 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 95% confidence interval GVCparticipation*UPSTR/DWST

  13. Slide 13: Main findings

    Main findings • Participation in GVC increased firms’ vulnerability during the pandemic, in terms of both export performance and probability of survival in the export market • Compared to non-GVC exporters, GVC firms were hit harder during the supply bottleneck period, the negative impact of supply

  14. Slide 14: Thank you

    Thank you 14 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  15. Slide 15: Background slides

    Background slides 15 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  16. Slide 16: A view to the pandemic cycle

    A view to the pandemic cycle GDP vs Export growth, France and EA (y-o-y percentage change) Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: Gross domestic product at market prices, Domestic currency (incl. conversion to current currency made using a fix parity), Chain linked volume (rebased), Non trans

  17. Slide 17: A view to the pandemic cycle

    A view to the pandemic cycle Oxford Stringency Index for France’s top 5 Suppliers' delivery times in manufacturing, France import partners Total Intermediate goods FRA BEL CHN DEU ITA USA 50 100 45 40 75 35 50 30 25 25 20 0 15 2-2020 6-2020 10-2020 2-2021 6-2021 10-2021 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sources:

  18. Slide 18: GVC experienced the sharpest fall in exports and recovered at a slower pace

    GVC experienced the sharpest fall in exports and recovered at a slower pace Export growth rate by GVC status and COVID-19 phases (y-o-y percentage change) GVC non-GVC 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 Feb. - Apr. 2020 May - Aug. 2020 Sep. 2020 - Dec. 2021 Source: French Customs and ECB staff calculations. 18 w

  19. Slide 19: Effect of GVC participation, robustness checks

    Effect of GVC participation, robustness checks (difference-in-differences) Back 19 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  20. Slide 20: Effect of GVC participation by phase and by sector

    Effect of GVC participation by phase and by sector (difference-in-differences) Back 20 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  21. Slide 21: Effect of GVC participation by firm-characteristics

    Effect of GVC participation by firm-characteristics (difference-in-differences) Back 21 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  22. Slide 22: Probability of survival in the export market, effect of GVC participation

    Probability of survival in the export market, effect of GVC participation (Logit model) 𝟙𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 + β2 GVC𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β3 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Back 22 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  23. Slide 23: Effect of GVC position

    Effect of GVC position (Generalised difference-in-differences) ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β2 GVC𝑖 ∗ GVC position𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Back 23 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  24. Slide 24: Effect of GVC position on survival probability

    Effect of GVC position on survival probability 𝟙𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 + β2 GVC𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β3 GVC𝑖 ∗ GVC position𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β4 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Back 24 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  25. Slide 25: Effect of diversification by phase

    Effect of diversification by phase Back 25 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  26. Slide 26: Survival probability, effect of diversification

    Survival probability, effect of diversification Back 26 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

  27. Slide 27: Effect of importing strategic products

    Effect of importing strategic products ln 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = α + β1 GVC𝑖 ∗ strategi𝑐𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + β2 GV𝐶𝑖 ∗ (1 − strategic𝑖 ) ∗ 𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷19𝑡 + 𝐹𝐸𝑖 + 𝐹𝐸𝑡 + ε𝑖𝑡 Back 27 www.ecb.europa.eu ©

European Central Bank — Technical Presentation (September 2022) on 6ix