Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — International Fertilizer Industry Association Enlarged Council Meeting 2005
31 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Nov 15, 2005
Slide 1: Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook: North America
Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook: North America by Jim Thompson Executive Vice President Commercial Exhibit 99.1 Enlarged Council Meeting International Fertilizer Industry Association Sevilla, Spain November 14-17, 2005
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
Safe Harbor Statement Forward- Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein constitute “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the assumptions made in connection with the forward-looking statements
Slide 3: Outline of Presentation
Outline of Presentation 1. Agricultural Developments Farmers harvested two large crops in a row Demand will match the large harvest this year U.S. farm income will remain at high levels Record energy prices will impact farm production costs and crop mix 2. Nutrient Demand Prospects High energy costs
Slide 4: Agricultural Developments
Agricultural Developments
Slide 5: Farmers harvested two large crops in a row
Farmers harvested two large crops in a row North American Grain and Oilseed Production MMT USA Canada Source: USDA
Slide 6: Record corn demand will absorb the large harvest
Record corn demand will absorb the large harvest U.S. Ethanol Production 05E Mil Gallons Source: EIA & Renewable Fuel Association U.S. Corn Production Mil Bu Source: USDA U.S. Corn Use Mil Bu Feed & Residual Food & Industrial Exports Source: USDA U.S. Corn Stocks Mil Bu Pct of Use Million Bu Pct of
Slide 7: Soybean stocks increase due to big crop
Soybean stocks increase due to big crop U.S. Soybean Stocks Mil Bu Pct of Use Million Bu Pct of Use Source: USDA U.S. Soybean Production Mil Bu Source: USDA U.S. Soybean Use Mil Bu Crush Seed & Residual Exports Source: USDA
Slide 8: New crop prices are the same or higher than last year
New crop prices are the same or higher than last year New Crop Wheat 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 MM/DD $ BU KCBOT 2004N KCBOT 2005N KCBOT 2006N Source: KCBOT New Crop Corn 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 MM/DD $ BU CBOT 2004Z CBOT 2005Z CBOT 2006Z Source: CBOT
Slide 9: U.S. farm income will remain at high levels
U.S. farm income will remain at high levels U.S. Net Cash Farm Income 05F Bil $ Market Gov Payments Source: USDA
Slide 10: Nutrient Demand Prospects
Nutrient Demand Prospects
Slide 11: Only a modest switch from corn to soybeans
Only a modest switch from corn to soybeans U.S. Planted Acreage 05E 06F Mil Acres Corn Soybeans All Wheat Source: USDA and Mosaic
Slide 12: Moderate declines in application rates are forecast
Moderate declines in application rates are forecast U.S. Phosphate Application Rates 1988-92 Average = 100 05E 06F Source: USDA and CBOT Percent 1.80 2.10 2.40 2.70 3.00 3.30 3.60 $ BU On Corn New Crop Corn Price (AMJ Average) U.S. Potash Application Rates 1988-92 Average = 100 05E 06F Source: USDA
Slide 13: U.S. nutrient use is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06
U.S. nutrient use is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06 U.S. Fertilizer Use 05E 06F MMT N P2O5 K2O
Slide 14: Canadian use also is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06
Canadian use also is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06 Canada Nutrient Use 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 05E 06F MMT N P2O5 K2O
Slide 15: Nitrogen
Nitrogen
Slide 16: U.S. natural gas prices remain high and volatile
U.S. natural gas prices remain high and volatile NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Winter Strip Average of the Daily Closing Prices of the Nov 05 to Mar 06 Options 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 $ MMBTU Source: NYMEX
Slide 17: N.A. nitrogen production expected to decline again
N.A. nitrogen production expected to decline again North American Ammonia Production 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Mil ST U.S. Canada Source: TFI and Mosaic
Slide 18: Imports have filled the gap
Imports have filled the gap U.S. Nitrogen Use 05F 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Mil ST N Percent Net Imports Total Use Imports as Percent of Use Source: TFI and Mosaic
Slide 19: Phosphate
Phosphate
Slide 20: U.S. phosphate exports are projected to decline
U.S. phosphate exports are projected to decline Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP U.S. Processed Phosphate Exports 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Mil Tons DAP MAP TSP
Slide 21: U.S. domestic shipments are projected to decline
U.S. domestic shipments are projected to decline Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP U.S. Processed Phosphate Domestic Shipments 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Mil Tons DAP MAP TSP
Slide 22: Supply decreases are in line with the drop in demand
Supply decreases are in line with the drop in demand Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP U.S. Processed Phosphate Production 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 MST DAP MAP TSP
Slide 23: U.S. phosphate production will decline significantly
U.S. phosphate production will decline significantly U.S. DAP/MAP Production 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 JAS OND JFM AMJ Source: TFI and Mosaic 1000 MT 2004/05 2005/06 Actual 2005/06 Forecast U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,
Slide 24: Stocks have dropped to low levels today
Stocks have dropped to low levels today U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 04/05 Actual 3-Yr Avg Source: TFI and Mosaic U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MA APR MAY JUN MIN MAX Ra
Slide 25: Potash
Potash
Slide 26: Demand growth slows but stays at high levels
Demand growth slows but stays at high levels NA Potash Offshore Exports 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 MST K 2 O Canada US Source: PPI and Mosaic
Slide 27: Domestic shipments likely will fall 5%
Domestic shipments likely will fall 5% North American Potash Shipments 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 MST K 2 O
Slide 28: Production likely will remain flat in 2005/06
Production likely will remain flat in 2005/06 North American Potash Production 06F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 MST K 2 O Canada US Source: PPI and Mosaic
Slide 29: Stocks likely will build to more adequate levels
Stocks likely will build to more adequate levels NA Potash Stocks at Month End JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 1000 ST K O MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 2004/05 3 Year Average Source: PPI and Mosaic NA Potash Stocks at Month End JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MA APR MAY JUN MIN MA
Slide 30: Recent demand was met by a large stock draw-down
0.37 0.63 96.4% 94.7% 98.3% Recent demand was met by a large stock draw-down North American Potash Demand Supplied From: 0.21 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 MMT K O Production+Imports Stock Draw Source: PPI, US DOC
Slide 31: Thank You
Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook: North America by Jim Thompson Executive Vice President Commercial Thank You Enlarged Council Meeting International Fertilizer Industry Association Seville, Spain November 14-17, 2005
Mosaic — International Fertilizer Industry Association Enlarged Council Meeting 2005 on 6ix