Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q1 2010 Earnings Presentation
46 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, May 31, 2010
Slide 1: Q1/2010 Results Analyst Presentation
Qi/2010 Results Analyst Presentation | 31 May 2010 . http://www.thaioil.co.th oN
Slide 2: Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. 2
Slide 3: Vision, Mission, Value
A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability • To emphasis good Corporate Governan
Slide 4: Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders
Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders The board of directors, management • Truthfully report company’s situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends to all stakeholders equally principles, equitable treatment to all on a timely manner. stakeholders
Slide 5: Q1/10 Highlights, Performance Analysis, Market Outlook
Q1/10 Highlights Performance Analysis Market Outlook 5
Slide 6: Q1/10 Highlights
Q1/10 Highlights 6
Slide 7: Market Condition, Performance, Business Highlight
Market Condition • GRM rebounded strongly as petroleum supply/demand balance improved – demand higher from broad economic recovery while supply tightened from low refinery runs. • Healthy BZ spread from solid demand while PX spread depressed due to slow demand during PTA turnarounds, Chinese New Yea
Slide 8: Performance Analysis
Performance Analysis 8
Slide 9: Market GRM
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials +Strong regional demand against LPG (controlled price) (Unit: $/bbl) GO limited supply due to heavy spring (Unit: $/bbl) refinery maintenance -16.4 -31.2 -33.7 -40.0 -47.5 -47.8 8.9 8.9 7.0 7.0 6.2 7.3 +Gasoline rebounde
Slide 10: Crude Oil Price - Dubai
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Crude Oil Price - Dubai + Better US/Global economic recoveries (Unit: $/bbl) + Improved global oil demand 110 + OPEC keep crude quota unchanged + Geopolitical in Iran and Nigeria 90 + Earthquake in Chile causing2 major r
Slide 11: Crude Oil Price, Stock Gain/Loss, Accounting GRM
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Crude Oil Price - Dubai Stock Gain/Loss (Unit: $/bbl) (Unit: $/bbl) 110 75 76 90 68 59 3.5 70 44 0.4 -0.9 50 30 Q1/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 2009 Q1/10 Accounting GRM (Unit: $/bbl) 3.0 3.1 2.1 Q1/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 11
Slide 12: Sources of Crude and Product Spreads
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Sources of Crude Spread over Dubai Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) 8% 2% * 4% 3% * Far East -17.2 -10.7 LPG 15% 9% 14% Local 10% Platformate 16% 5.1 16% 12.6 Gasoline 7.3 19% 9.4 Jet 22% Middle East 87% 82% 6.2 37%
Slide 13: Domestic Oil Demand and TOP's Domestic & Export Sales
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand (KBD) +16% (KBD) Q4/09 Q1/10 1,400 87% 89% 88% 86% 89% 87% 100% 734 746 1,200 80% 1,000 +5% 800 131 215 221 202 138 192 60% 600 -5% 319 335 40% 400 +8% 722 699 69
Slide 14: Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins Utilization PX-ULG95 384 475 355 321 286 Q4/09 Q1/10 BZ-ULG95 -60 79 160 178 215 91% 84% (US$/Ton) 384 1,200 89 • PX margin squeezed due to PX 1,000 BZ Surplus PX during PTA 800 MX turna
Slide 15: Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins Utilization 500SN-HSFO 398 264 404 429 435 Q4/09 Q1/10 Bitumen-HSFO 70 -5 -3 -23 26 98% 92% (US$/Ton) 374 1,600 10 1,400 • Higher Base Oil spread from 1,200 1,000 500SN Bullish i
Slide 16: Accounting GIM and Market GIM
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials (US$/bbl) 20.6 20.3 20.7 20.2 15.7 20.7 Product to Feed Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 (US$/bbl) 3.8 2.7 Market 1.2 0.7 1.1 Crude GRM* -1.4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 (US$/bbl) 19.0 17.4 15.8 14.8 15.1 14.5 Product to Feed *
Slide 17: Q1/10 Net Profit Breakdown
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Refinery Aromatic Lube Base Plant Plant SAKC Ship Utilization Utilization Production Production Availability Utilization Utilization 95% 94%* 98% 92% 99% 94% 91%* 92% 91% 84%* 74% 81% 76% 65%* Q4/09 Q1/10 *CCR-2 S/D 15 d
Slide 18: Balance Sheet, Consolidated Long-Term Debt, Financial Ratios
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Balance Sheet Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1) (Unit: MB) 143,086 Q1/10 137,745 Total LT Debt Net Debt 42,134 40,959 LT Debt* Bt. 40,959 mn. Bt. 28,207 mn. Current (Net Debt 28,207) (US$ 1,259 mn.) (Net Debt 34,196) (US$ 8
Slide 19: 2010 Market Outlook
2010 Market Outlook •April 2010 Market Highlight •Macroeconomics •Petroleum Market •Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Market •Conclusion 19
Slide 20: April 2010 Market Highlight
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 Crude up by escalator down by free fall on Q4 Q1 April May investors’ fear of sovereign default Dubai: 75 76 84 77 MO-DB: 5 13 10 8 Massive refinery maintenance supported middle distillat
Slide 21: Macroeconomics Outlook
Wy ah NS Group Macroeconomics Outlook ... But will this last? 21
Slide 22: Economic Sentiment, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion Economic Sentiment Unemployment 110 45 17 4.0 CN EU EU 100 40 US JP 15 3.5 (RHS) 90 JP 35 millions (RHS) 80 US 13 3.0 30 70 11 2.5 60 25 50 20 9 2.0 Nov Jul Mar Mar Apr May Apr Oct Aug Feb Jun Feb Ja
Slide 23: 2010 World GDP Outlook
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion %YoY 2010 World GDP Outlook 15% The worst is over A year of recovery China 12% India 9% Japan 6% +4.2% Thailand 3% -0.6% US 0% EU -3% World -6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IMF World Economic Out
Slide 24: Macroeconomic risks: Euro zone, China, US
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion • High level of sovereign • High Inflation and asset • US reform bill is pending debt in Euro zone countries price bubble risks in China for Senate votes • Contagious risks of debt • PBOC continuousl
Slide 25: Petroleum Market
Petroleum Market 25
Slide 26: Global Oil Demand and OPEC-11 Supply
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion Global Oil Demand OPEC-11 Supply MBD MBD 88 2010 2007 2008 2009 87.0 87.2 30 100% 87 86.5 86.3 80% 86.2 85.9 86.0 29 56% 55% 86 85.3 52% 51% 60% 28 85 84.4 40% 84.1 27 84 20% 26 83 0% 25 Target 82 -2
Slide 27: WTI vs DJI, USD:EUR, Net Long Positions
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion WTI vs DJI WTI Price & Net Long Positions 90 11,500 Positions $/bbl 250,000 90 85 11,000 200,000 75 $/bbl Pts 80 10,500 150,000 60 75 10,000 WTI DJI 100,000 45 70 9,500 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 50
Slide 28: 2010 Crude Price Forecast
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion 2010 Crude Price Forecast 2010 WTI Price Forecast As of $/BBL 100 Fortis 14-Aug-09 77.50 2009 WTI 90 2009 Dubai UBS 17-Nov-09 75.00 81 81 83 80 2010 WTIF 75.42 Standard Chartered 27-Jan-10 82.00 2010
Slide 29: Asia Pacific Demand Growth and Net Product Balance
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion Asia Pacific Demand Growth 2% Asia Pacific Net Product Balance KBD KBD 9,000 1,500 2009: 24,600 MBD Export 8,000 1,000 2010: 25,130 MBD 7,000 500 Fuel Oil 6,000 0 Diesel 5,000 -500 Kero/jet 4,000 -1,
Slide 30: Massive maintenance capped refinery run in Asia and Europe
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion Massive maintenance capped refinery run in Asia and Europe • Massive maintenance during Mar-Apr limited refinery run in Europe and N. Asia • Refinery run for OECD countries is likely to remain low fo
Slide 31: Middle Distillate Stocks
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion Middle Distillate Stocks – Onshore Floating mBBL US EU-16 SG Global Dec-09 160 415 15 100 Mar-10 145 410 13 50 Source: Morgan Stanley, Reuters, JBC Change -15 -5 -2 -50 31
Slide 32: Aromatics, Base Oil, Solvent
Aromatics, Base Oil, Solvent 32
Slide 33: PX Summer Seasonal Demand and New Capacity Delay
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion PX SUMMER SEASONAL DEMAND NEW CAPACITY DELAY Plants delay Source: PCI Source: CMAI, TOP PX-KTPA BZ-KTPA Company, Site • Fabric sale seasonally increases preparing for summer clothing China Q4/10 1,00
Slide 34: Benzene and Styrene Monomer Uses
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion 56% Polystyrene (PS) Styrene Styrene butadiene Benzene Monomer (SM) rubber (SBR) Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) 3% Surfactant in Detergent Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) LAB Phenol resins 18% Poly
Slide 35: China Lubricant Demand
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion • China lubricant demand accounted for almost 40% of total AP demand in 2009 •Q1’10 China car sales up 70% yoy, implying high lubricant demand for personal & commercial vehicle • Industrial lubricant
Slide 36: Beating the Target, Growth & Synergy
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion BEATING THE TARGET GROWTH & SYNERGY QoQ • Strong economic growth • Expected sales growth GDP (%YoY) 2009 2010F Thailand -2.3% +5.5% 41 KT 49 KT Vietnam +5.3% +6.0% Source : IMF Thailand Application Y
Slide 37: Conclusion
y a TharouW Group 37
Slide 38: Market Highlight and Operational Excellence
Market Highlight Operational Excellence Optimized production amidst plant maintenance Rapid economic recovery but some risks remain S/D and margin outlook Crude prices expect to finish ~74 $/bbl in Q2 , with Improve margin through dynamic marketing upside potential in H2 strategy and synergy with PT
Slide 39: Q&A
Q&A 39
Slide 40: Thank You
Thank You Any queries, please contact: Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioil.co.th Tel: 662-299-0000 Fax: 662-299-0128 40
Slide 41: Appendices
S Pasi/ive e Thea Appendices Group 41
Slide 42: Thailand LPG Demand
Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight ML/Mth 850 800 802 • LPG Demand in Q1/10 grew 14% YoY mainly 800 729 from skyrocketed petrochemical demand: 750 700 2007 Household +12% YoY 650 600 2008 Transportation -3% YoY 550 2009 Industry +57% YoY 500 450 2010 Petrochemical +27% YoY 400 Jan Mar
Slide 43: Thailand Gasoline Demand
Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand Highlight ML/Mth 700 • Gasoline demand turned negative 5% YoY in Q1/10 due to higher retail price 638 650 620 comparing to last year 606 2007 592 • Average ethanol replacement is 1.25 600 2008 ML/Day 550 2009 2010 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N
Slide 44: Thailand JET-A1 Demand
Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight ML/Mth 500 • Skyrocketed demand in Q1/10 (+9% YoY) due 425 to better tourism from tourist country’s 450 422 387 economic recovery (number of tourist flights 400 2007 increased 14% YoY in Q1/10) 350 2008 300 2009 250 2010 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Slide 45: Thailand Gasoil Demand
Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight ML/Mth 1,800 • Gasoil demand grown 0.3% YoY in Q1/10 1688 1,700 • Portion of B2:B5 is 56:44 in 2009 and 59:41 1565 1546 in Q1/10 1,600 2007 1,506 • Lower portion of B5 consumption since price 1,500 2008 gap between B2 and B5 is lower comparing 1,400 200
Slide 46: Thailand Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight ML/Mth 500 • FO demand growth turned positive 9% YoY in Q1/10 since there were some EGAT 400 292.4 demand in Feb-Mar during pipeline gas 2007 300 from Burma was under operation 210 216.5 2008 200 2009 100 2010 - Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Thailand Fuel
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