Wartsila Oyj Abp · OMXHEX:WRT1V
Wartsila Oyj Abp — Wärtsilä — Technical Presentation (July 2021)
23 slides from Wartsila Oyj Abp's technical presentation, Jul 28, 2021
Slide 1: Pathway to 100% Carbon Neutral Power System – Case Chile
PATHWAY TO 100 % CARBON NEUTRAL POWER SYSTEM – CASE CHILE Jussi Heikkinen, Antti Alahäivälä July 28th 2021 © Wärtsilä
Slide 2: Purpose of the Study
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY Study seeks the optimal way to decarbonize electricity in Chile by 2050 © Wärtsilä
Slide 3: Presentation
PRESENTATION • Modelling the Chilean power system • Approach • Scenarios • Results: • Path to 100% carbon neutral electricity • Role of long-term energy storage in managing the weather • Optimal features of flexible power plant capacity for the transition • Key takeaways © Wärtsilä
Slide 4: Modelling the Chilean Power System Expansion Until 2050
MODELLING THE CHILEAN POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION UNTIL 2050 Modelling approach PLEXOS(TM) Inputs Wärtsilä has focused on modelling power systems with • Five zones: SING, SIC-North, Central, Central-South, and South high share of renewables for > 10 years • Power plants in SING and SIC with full paramete
Slide 5: Scenarios
SCENARIOS Retirement by Year Scenario Coal Diesel oil CO2 Price S1 Coal 2030 2050 5 $/tnCO2 Path to 100% S2 Coal+Diesel 2030 2030 5 $/tnCO2 Scenarios: S3 Coal+Diesel 30 $/tnCO2 2030 2030 Higher CO2 Price By 2030 System technologies deep-dives: Role of long-term energy storage in managing Optimal fea
Slide 6: Stages of Path to 100% Carbon Neutral
CO2 EMISSIONS AND COST OF ELECTRICITY STAGES OF PATH TO LOCATION OF NEW RENEWABLE SHARE AND INVESTMENTS RETIRING DIESEL OIL- 100% CARBON NEUTRAL ASSETS DURING THE PATH TO DURING THE PATH TO FIRED CAPACITY 100% 100% © Wärtsilä
Slide 7: Stages of Path to 100% Carbon Neutral – Scenario S2
STAGES OF PATH TO 100% CARBON NEUTRAL – SCENARIO S2 System 100% Gradual Addition of Addition of shifter New Flexible Power RES, Battery Storage Carbon Neutral batteries speed up Plant Capacity and Flexible Power Coal and Diesel RES Plants Flexible Power start to leave the additions Plants switch to
Slide 8: Renewable Capacity by Zone
RENEWABLE CAPACITY BY ZONE * SIC-S SIC-CS SIC-C SIC-N SING *Note difference y-axis scale Solar = solar photovoltaic © Wärtsilä
Slide 9: New Balancing Capacity by Zone
NEW BALANCING CAPACITY BY ZONE * SIC-S SIC-CS SIC-C SIC-N SING *Note difference y-axis scale © Wärtsilä
Slide 10: CO2 Emissions and Renewable Share During the Path to 100%
CO2 EMISSIONS AND RENEWABLE SHARE DURING THE PATH TO 100% CO2 Emissions Renewable Share Retirement of coal and diesel-oil will have the greatest impact on the emissions and renewable share Gas-fired thermal will switch to renewable fuels Higher carbon tax makes fuel conversion feasible in 2038. The
Slide 11: Cost of Electricity and Investments During the Path to 100%
COST OF ELECTRICITY AND INVESTMENTS DURING THE PATH TO 100% LCOE* Annual investments during the Path Investments to replace coal and diesel oil Near-term Final push to investments in decarbonize clean sources enable dramatic reduction in carbon Installation of wind Investments to meet and solar PV i
Slide 12: Retiring Diesel Oil-Fired Capacity
RETIRING DIESEL OIL-FIRED CAPACITY Capacity Additions by 2030 Diesel oil-fired capacity • receives capacity payments • is expensive to dispatch • has high carbon emissions Retiring diesel-oil makes sense • Is not part of carbon neutral system • Expensive to keep and use • Becomes replaced by • Clean
Slide 13: Key takeaways: cost of power reduced, over 90% renewable by 2030
• The cost of power during decarbonization will be drastically reduced • Chile can reach over 90% renewable share by 2030 • Carbon neutral power system in Chile is realistic before 2050 © Wärtsilä
Slide 14: System Technologies Deep-Dives
SYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES DEEP-DIVES © Wärtsilä
Slide 15: Modelling Approach
MODELLING APPROACH Normal wind and solar PV generation Purpose • To dimension the power system to serve the load even during extreme weather conditions Motivation • Path to 100% results are based on one realization of hourly wind and solar profiles Weather in modelling for extreme days • Low wind an
Slide 16: Extreme Weather Impact on Capacity Mix and Costs
EXTREME WEATHER IMPACT ON CAPACITY MIX AND COSTS Normal Weather Extreme Weather LCOE: 50 $/MWh PtXtP in the system CapEx: 79 B$ • Reduces system size by 20 GW LCOE: 40 • Saves in investment 17 BUSD $/MWh CapEx: 66 B$ • Reduces generation cost by 18% LCOE: 35 LCOE: 33 • Provides highly economical lon
Slide 17: New Approach to Electricity Storage
NEW APPROACH TO ELECTRICITY STORAGE • Ancillary services Short Term Storage Conversion • Minute-to-hour-to-daily balancing Inverter • Daily shifting of solar Excess Renewable Balancing Power for Electricity the Grid Long Term Storage Conversion Gas Power Plant Carbon neutral Fuel • Unusual weather m
Slide 18: System Technologies Deep-Dives: Conversion Gas Power Plant
SYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES DEEP-DIVES Conversion Gas Power Plant © Wärtsilä
Slide 19: Modelling Approach: Compared Gas-Fired Technologies
MODELLING APPROACH Compared gas-fired technologies: Purpose • To understand what are the important Unit Heat VO&M Start Start Min Full features of flexible and dispatchable Technology Size Rate $/MWh Cost Time Stable CAPEX power plants during the transition to MW GJ/MWh $/MW min Level % $/kW 100% Op
Slide 20: Important Features for Flexible Power Plant Capacity
IMPORTANT FEATURES FOR FLEXIBLE POWER PLANT CAPACITY • Annual system generation cost* differences between the flexible power plant technologies • Medium speed engines provide the lowest cost option for the flexible power plant capacity, saving 15-25 MUSD annually • Difference comes from • Fuel cost
Slide 21: Key Takeaways
• 100% carbon neutral power system is fully realistic even before 2050 with current technologies • Energy from solar PV, wind and hydro • Short-term storage with batteries • Long-term storage with renewable fuels used in flexible power plants • Electricity generation costs during the transition will
Slide 22: Chile's Decarbonization Path Conclusions
• Chile has one of the most ambitious and economical decarbonization plans in the world • The decarbonization path is very realistic and enables cost savings and lower carbon emissions • As per Wärtsilä´s Plexos analysis, the optimal path to decarbonization of Chilean electricity includes: 1. Retiri
Slide 23: Wärtsilä
re, WARTSILA