Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC

Exelon — Q4 2015 Earnings Presentation

40 slides from Exelon's earnings presentation, Feb 3, 2016

  1. Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call 4th Quarter 2015

    Exhibit 99.2 Earnings Conference Call 4 th Quarter 2015 February 3, 2016

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information

    Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ mat

  3. Slide 3: Delivering Value to Shareholders Through a Defined Capital Allocation Policy

    Delivering Value to Shareholders Through a Defined Capital Allocation Policy • Our strong balance sheet underpins our capital allocation policy • Capitaldecisions are made to maximize value to our customers and shareholders • We are harvesting free cash flow from Exelon Generation to: – First, inves

  4. Slide 4: Exelon Utilities – Operational Excellence Driving Strong Financial Performance

    Exelon Utilities – Operational Excellence Driving Strong Financial Performance and Positive Regulatory Outcomes 2015 Results 2016 Goals • 1 st Quartile SAIFI performance • 1 st Quartile SAIFI performance Leading • 1 st Quartile CAIDI performance • 1 st Quartile CAIDI performance Operational • 1 st Q

  5. Slide 5: Exelon Generation Delivered Strong Operational and Financial Performance in 2015

    Exelon Generation Delivered Strong Operational and Financial Performance in 2015 World Class Operational Performance 2016 Goals • Full-year Nuclear Capacity Factor: 93.7% • Continue to be best in class in operational performance across the generation fleet • Best average refueling outage duration si

  6. Slide 6: 2016 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance

    2016 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance $2.49 (1) $2.40 - $2.70 (2) BGE $0.31 $0.25 - $0.35 BGE Key Year-Over-Year Drivers PECO $0.43 $0.40 - $0.50 PECO • BGE: higher O&M for storms and bad debt, partially offset ComEd $0.48 by higher distribution rates $0.50 - $0.60 ComEd • PECO: higher distribut

  7. Slide 7: Key Financial Metrics Impacted by Bonus Depreciation

    Key Financial Metrics Impacted by Bonus Depreciation Standalone Bonus Depreciation Impacts 2016 2017 2018 • Bonus Depreciation reduces earnings in 2016-2018 primarily due to its impact on ExGen’s ability to take Earnings per the Domestic Production Activities Deduction and ($0.09) ($0.11) ($0.06) Sh

  8. Slide 8: Maintaining Investment Grade Credit Ratings is a Top Financial Priority

    Maintaining Investment Grade Credit Ratings is a Top Financial Priority Exelon and ExGenS&P FFO/Debt %(1) ExGenDebt/EBITDA Ratio(5) Exelon Exelon Target (22%) ExGen ExGen Target (27%) 3.5 3.2x 3.0x 50% 3.0 40% 2.5 2.3x 30% 2.0 1.5 20% 1.0 10% 0.5 0% 0.0 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Credit Ratings b

  9. Slide 9: Cost Management Initiative Update

    Cost Management Initiative Update • Cost savings of $350M have been identified and incorporated into current long range plan, reflecting our high level of confidence in achieving the reductions • Additional $50 million of nuclear fuel savings already reflected in the hedge disclosure • Savings to be

  10. Slide 10: Adjusted O&M Forecast

    Adjusted O&M Forecast(2) • 2016 forecast of $7.18B (1) • Expect CAGR of ~(0.5)% for 2015-2018 $7,250 $7,175 BGE $675 $750 BGE PECO $675 $775 PECO ComEd $1,300 $1,275 ComEd Key Year-over-Year Drivers (2) • Inflation: $150M • PECO & BGE Storm Costs: $50M • Utility Bad Debt Costs: $50M (3): $25M • Balt

  11. Slide 11: Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update

    Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update December 31, 2015 Change from Sept. 30, 2015 (1) Gross Margin Category ($M) 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 (3) Open Gross Margin (including South, West, Canada hedged gross $5,200 $5,800 $6,150 $(450) - $50 margin) (3,4) Mark-to-Market of Hedges $1,700 $800 $250

  12. Slide 12: Exelon Generation Disclosures

    Exelon Generation Disclosures December 31, 2015 12 Q4 2015 Earnings Release Slides

  13. Slide 13: Portfolio Management Strategy

    Portfolio Management Strategy Strategic Policy Alignment Three-Year Ratable Hedging Bull / Bear Program •Aligns hedging program with •Ensure stability in near-term cash •Ability to exercise fundamental financial policies and financial flows and earnings market views to create value within outlook •D

  14. Slide 14: Components of Gross Margin Categories

    Components of Gross Margin Categories Gross margin linked to power production and sales Gross margin from other business activities Open Gross MtM of “Power” New “Non-Power” “Non-Power” Margin Hedges(2) Business Executed New Business •Generation Gross •Mark-to-Market •Retail, Wholesale •Retail, Whol

  15. Slide 15: ExGen Disclosures

    ExGen Disclosures (1) Gross Margin Category ($M) 2016 2017 2018 (3) Open Gross Margin(including South, West & Canada hedged GM) $5,200 $5,800 $6,150 (3,4) Mark-to-Market of Hedges $1,700 $800 $250 Power New Business / To Go $450 $800 $1,000 Non-Power Margins Executed $250 $150 $100 Non-Power New Bus

  16. Slide 16: ExGen Disclosures

    ExGen Disclosures Generation and Hedges 2016 2017 2018 (1) 199,900 206,500 207,400 Exp. Gen (GWh) Midwest 97,300 96,400 96,800 Mid-Atlantic(2) 63,600 61,600 60,700 ERCOT 17,400 26,500 31,500 New York(2) 9,300 9,200 9,100 New England 12,300 12,800 9,300 (3) 90%-93% 60%-63% 28%-31% % of Expected Gener

  17. Slide 17: ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities

    ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities Gross Margin Sensitivities (With Existing Hedges)(1) 2016 2017 2018 Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/Mmbtu) + $1/Mmbtu $10 $380 $695 - $1/Mmbtu $(5) $(380) $(695) NiHub ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh $55 $225 $380 - $5/MWh $(50) $(220) $(380) PJM-W ATC Energy Price + $5/MW

  18. Slide 18: ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk

    ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk 11,000 10,500 10,000 $9,750 9,500 9,000 $8,800 8,500 $8,050 8,000 7,500 $7,500 7,000 $7,100 6,500 $6,550 6,000 5,500 5,000 2016 2017 2018 (1) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedges in place, between the 5th and 95th

  19. Slide 19: Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2017 Gross Margin

    Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2017 Gross Margin South, West & Row Item Midwest Mid-Atlantic ERCOT New York New England Canada (A) Start with fleet-wide open gross margin $5.8 billion (B) Expected Generation (TWh) 96.4 61.6 26.5 9.2 12.8 (C) Hedge % (assuming mid-point of range)

  20. Slide 20: Additional Disclosures

    Additional Disclosures 20 Q4 2015 Earnings Release Slides

  21. Slide 21: Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution

    Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution(1) BGE PECO ComEd Key Drivers –4Q15(2) vs. 4Q14: $0.26 $0.26 BGE(+0.02): • Increased revenues due to increased distribution rates and transmission earnings: $0.02 $0.06 $0.08 PECO (-0.02): • Unfavorable weather (RNF): $(0.03) $0.11 • Decreased unc

  22. Slide 22: ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution

    (1) ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution Key Drivers –Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014 2014 2015 ExGen(-0.12): $0.27 • Increased costs primarily due to timing of nuclear projects: $(0.03) • Unfavorable impact associated with nuclear refueling outages: $(0.05) • Higher depreciation costs primarily due to inc

  23. Slide 23: ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016

    ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016 $0.01 Pension/OPEB $0.07 Distribution $0.01 Storm Costs $0.06 Transmission ($0.01) Inflation $0.01 Weather $0.01 ($0.05) ($0.01) $0.50 - $0.60 $0.14 ($0.02) $0.48 2015(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Depreciation & Interest Other 2016(4)(5) Amortization Note: Driver

  24. Slide 24: PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016

    PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016 ($0.04) $0.40 - $0.50 $0.07 ($0.01) $0.43 $0.08 Electric Distribution Rate Case ($0.01) Weather ($0.01) Weather Normal RNF ($0.02) Weather Related (Storm ($0.01, Bad Debt ($0.01)) ($0.01) Rate Case Related (Veg. Mgmt. & Cap Settlement) ($0.01) Inflatio

  25. Slide 25: BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016

    BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016 $0.02 Pricing/Mix $0.02 Transmission $0.31 $0.04 $(0.06) $0.25 - $0.35 $0.01 ($0.02) Storm Costs ($0.02) Bad Debt ($0.02) Baltimore City Conduit Fee 2015 (1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Other 2016 (4)(5) Note: Drivers add up to mid-point of 2016 adjusted operating EP

  26. Slide 26: ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016

    ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2015 to 2016 ($0.13) Normalized load optimization in 2016 $0.05 Unplanned Generation Outages $0.02 Capacity Revenues ($0.06) Capital placed in service $0.02 Higher Load Volumes ($0.03) Decom Asset Retirement Cost Depreciation $1.40 ($0.09) ($0.04) $0.11 ($0.08) $1

  27. Slide 27: 2016 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash

    2016 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash Total Exelon Cash ($ in millions)(1) BGE ComEd PECO ExGen Corp(8) Utilities 2016E Balance Beginning Cash Balance (2) 7,750 (1) All amounts rounded to the nearest (2,3) Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations 650 1,575 700 2,925 3,725 (425) 6,225 $25M. Figures may n

  28. Slide 28: Pension and OPEB Contributions and Expense

    Pension and OPEB Contributions and Expense 2015 2016 (in $M) Pre-TaxExpense(1) Contributions Pre-TaxExpense(1) Contributions(2) Qualified $425 $450 $370 $250 Pension(3)(4) Non-Qualified 15 15 15 20 Pension OPEB(3)(4) 30 40 5 35 Total $470 $505 $390 $305 (1) Pension and OPEB expenses assume a ~26% an

  29. Slide 29: Additional ExGen Modeling Data

    Additional ExGen Modeling Data Total Gross Margin Reconciliation (in $M)(1) 2016 2017 2018 Revenue Net of Purchased Power and Fuel Expense(2)(3) $8,475 $8,475 $8,525 Other Revenues(4) $(325) $(325) $(325) Direct cost of sales incurred to generate revenues for certain $(350) $(300) $(300) Constellati

  30. Slide 30: Exelon Utilities Load

    Exelon Utilities Load All Customers Residential Small C&I Large C&I ComEd PECO BGE 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% (0.9%) (0.3%) (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.3%) (0.4%) (0.5%) 2.0% (0.8%) 1.5% 1.1% (1.4%) (1.5%) 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% (2.0%) 0.5% 2015 2016E 2015 2016E 2015 2016E Chicago GMP 2.3% Philadelphia GMP 1.4% Bal

  31. Slide 31: ComEd April 2015 Distribution Formula Rate

    ComEd April 2015 Distribution Formula Rate The 2015 distribution formula rate filing established the net revenue requirement used to set the rates that took effect in January 2016 after the Illinois Commerce Commission's (ICC’s) review. There are two components to the annual distribution formula rat

  32. Slide 32: PECO Electric Distribution Rate Case & Settlement

    PECO Electric Distribution Rate Case & Settlement Docket # R-2015-2468981 Test Year 2016 Calendar Year RequestedRevenue Requirement $190M RequestedCommon Equity Ratio(1) 53.36% Requested Rate of Return ROE: 10.95%; ROR: 8.19% Proposed Rate Base $4.1B Revenue Requirement Settlement Increase $127M Aut

  33. Slide 33: BGE Electric and Gas Distribution Rate Case

    BGE Electric and Gas Distribution Rate Case Electric Gas Docket # 9406 Test Year December 2014-November 2015 Common Equity Ratio(1) 53.7% Requested ROE 10.60% 10.50% Requested Rate of Return 7.95% 7.90% Rate Base (adjusted) $3.0B $1.2B RevenueRequirementIncrease (1) $120.9M $79.5M ProposedDistributi

  34. Slide 34: Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

    Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures 34 Q4 2015 Earnings Release Slides

  35. Slide 35: 4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation

    4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation Three Months Ended December 31, 2014 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2014 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $0.27 $0.09 $0.11 $0.06 $(0.04) $0.48 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities (0.08) - - - - (0.08) Unrealized gains related to

  36. Slide 36: 4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation

    4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation Year Ended December 31,2014 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2014 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $1.34 $0.47 $0.41 $0.23 $(0.06) $2.39 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities (0.42) - - - - (0.42) Unrealized gains related to NDT f

  37. Slide 37: 4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation (continued)

    4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation (continued) Year Ended December 31, 2015 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2015 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $1.40 $0.48 $0.43 $0.31 $(0.13) $2.49 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities 0.18 - - - - 0.18 Unrealized losses relate

  38. Slide 38: GAAP to Operating Adjustments

    GAAP to Operating Adjustments • Exelon’s 2016 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes the earnings effects of the following: – Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities – Unrealized gains and losses from NDT fund investments to the extent not offset by contractual accountin

  39. Slide 39: Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP

    Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP 2015 AdjustedO&MReconciliation(in $M)(3) ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon GAAP O&M $5,300 $1,575 $800 $675 $(25) $8,325 PHI Acquisition Costs (25) - - - (25) (50) Long-Lived Asset Impairment - - - - (25) (25) RegulatoryO&M(1) - (275) (125) - - (400) Decommission

  40. Slide 40: Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP

    Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP 2016 AdjustedO&MReconciliation(in $M)(3) ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon GAAP O&M $5,175 $1,600 $875 $750 $(100) $8,300 RegulatoryO&M(1) - (300) (100) - - (400) Decommissioning(1) 50 - - - - 50 Direct cost of sales incurred to generate revenues for certain (300

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