Expand Energy Corporation · NASDAQ:EXE
Expand Energy — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation
35 slides from Expand Energy's earnings presentation, Jul 30, 2025
Slide 1: 2Q 2025 Earnings
2Q 2025 Earnings JULY 29, 2025
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include our current expectations or forecasts
Slide 3: 2Q25 Operational and Financial Highlights
2Q25 Operational and Financial Highlights Largest Domestic Natural ~$425mm of Incremental Annual Synergy Outlook Gas Producer: ~7.2 Bcfe/d FCF Uplift in 2025 Increased to $600mm (2) 2Q25 beat with: Improved guidance for G&A, LOE, Size, scale and timing of previously disclosed ~$1.2bn of adj. EBITDAX
Slide 4: Attractive, Connected Portfolio
Attractive, Connected Portfolio Superior Portfolio Characteristics Northeast Appalachia ~700,000 net acres >1,500 gross locations Scale: Largest natural gas producer in FY25E Prod: ~2,625 MMcfe/d North America with ~1.9mm net acres, ~7.1 Bcfe/d in 2025 Southwest Appalachia ~566,000 net acres Flexibi
Slide 5: Significant Improvement to FCF
Significant Improvement to FCF ~$425mm ~$75 ~$500mm improvement improvement ~$400 in 2025 FCF(1,2,3) ~$150 ~$150 in 2026 FCF(1,2) ~$75 ~$75 ~$100 ~$125 ~$125 ~$1,725 (~$100) ~$100 ~$3,100 ~$2,700 ~$2,600 ~$2,600 ~$2,500 ~$2,500 ~$1,300 ~$1,300 ~$1,300 ~$1,300 ~$1,300 BoY 2025 Opex Capex Taxes & In-Y
Slide 6: Merger Synergies Continue to Exceed Expectations
Merger Synergies Continue to Exceed Expectations ~50% improvement in synergies compared to announcement ~$100 ~$100 ~$600 ~$500 ~$500 ~$400 ~$400 Initial Synergy Target Additional Synergies Synergy Target Synergy Delivery Total Synergies @ Announcement Identified @ Close @ Close Outperformance from
Slide 7: Improved 2025 Capital Outlook
Improved 2025 Capital Outlook 2025 Capital Expenditures (Implied Midpoints of 2025 Guidance, $mm) ▪ Reduced FY25 D&C capex spend by ~$100mm ~$2.9bn Productive capacity build ~$275 (+300 MMcfe/d ▪ Record drilling ~$195 by 1Q26) performance driving ~$300 capital efficiencies ~$535 Delivers ▪ ~300 MMcf
Slide 8: Record Drilling Performance
Record Drilling Performance Haynesville Northeast Appalachia Southwest Appalachia ▪ Delivered record quarterly footage/day ▪ Delivered record quarterly FPD during 2Q25 ▪ Delivered record quarterly FPD during 2Q25 (FPD) during 2Q25 ▪ Drilled 4 of top 10 best FPD wells in 1H25 ▪ U.S. land bit run reco
Slide 9: AI and Machine Learning Supports Record Performance
AI and Machine Learning Supports Record Performance ▪ Rapid integration of telemetry data across the rig fleet has enhanced operational learnings Research Engine ▪ Optimizing drilling operations through proprietary machine learning models built in-house Hazard Bit Avoidance Performance • DrillOpsIQ
Slide 10: 2025 Production Outlook
2025 Production Outlook Northeast Appalachia Quarterly Production Haynesville Quarterly Production (MMcfe/d) (MMcfe/d) 2,978 3,050 3,050 2,925 2,668 2,662 2,600 2,600 2,625 2,617 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E Rigs 2 2 2 3 2–3 Rigs 7 7 7 7 7 Crews 2 2 2 2 2 Crews 3 4 4 3
Slide 11: Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow
Optimizing Maintenance Production to Maximize Free Cash Flow (1) Centering activity to deliver ~7.5 Bcfe/d through-cycle maximizes FCF at mid-cycle prices between $3.50 to $4.00 Illustrative Annual FCF(2) at Various Mid-cycle Prices, Maintenance Production and Capital Mid-cycle Price, $/Mcf $2.50 $2
Slide 12: Productive Capacity Success Story
Productive Capacity Success Story Illustrative Productive Capacity Strategy 2024 Productive Capacity Generated Significant Value ~$225mm increase in FCF over first (1) 12 months of volume from productive capacity wells(2) OVERPRODUCING BAND ~7.5 Bcfe/d midpoint aligns with $3.50 – $4.00 mid-cycle pr
Slide 13: Haynesville Positioned to Capture Premium Gas Markets
Haynesville Positioned to Capture Premium Gas Markets Advantaged transportation portfolio provides deliverability, diversification and flexibility EXE’s Perryville Capacity: ▪ EXE Haynesville Marketing Portfolio ~2 Bcf/d EXE’s Haynesville • Portfolio exposure is balanced between growing LNG demand a
Slide 14: Enhanced Capital Returns Framework
Enhanced Capital Returns Framework ▪ Tranche 1 – Annual Base Dividend • $2.30/share • Remains priority and is paid through-cycle $2.30/ Annual Base Dividend share • 2Q25 DPS of $0.575/sh to be paid in September EXCESS FCF • ~$274mm base dividend returned for 1H25 REMAINING $116mm ▪ Tranche 2 – Net D
Slide 15: Investment Grade Balance Sheet Supports Through-Cycle Value Creation
Investment Grade Balance Sheet Supports Through-Cycle Value Creation ▪ Current balance sheet is strong, however Unhedged Run-Rate EBITDAX additional deleveraging creates more capacity ($bn)(1) at cycle-lows Further prioritization of debt pay down will facilitate attractive value creation at lower pr
Slide 16: Current Hedge Position Preserves Upside and Downside Protection
Current Hedge Position Preserves Upside and Downside Protection Hedged Natural Gas Volumes Added since 1Q Earnings (Bcf) Last Public Disclosure (Bcf) 2 3 10 8 20 362 342 311 22 246 215 153 60 53 44 - 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 2Q27 Current Hedge Book Supports Near-Term Realizations and Prese
Slide 17: 2024 Sustainability Performance Highlights
2024 Sustainability Performance Highlights Inaugural report highlights our commitments and progress ▪ Achieved 100% Responsibly Sourced Gas (RSG) across portfolio (MiQ and EO100 ) Transparent and ▪ Serious Incident and Fatality (SIF) program adoption for proactive measurable disclosures: safety prev
Slide 18: Expanding Returns, Expanding Opportunities
Expanding Returns, Expanding Opportunities Attractive, Peer-leading Resilient Responsible Connected Returns Financial Stewardship Portfolio Foundation Premium rock, returns, Most efficient operator Investment Grade Connecting affordable, runway with access to with proven track record balance sheet p
Slide 19: Appendix
Appendix expand 2Q 2025 EARNINGS
Slide 20: Management's Guidance as of July 29, 2025
Management’s Guidance as of July 29, 2025 Bold / Italicized = updated guidance range Production (MMcfe/d) 2Q25A 3Q25E 2025E Operating Costs (per Mcfe of Projected Production) 2Q25A 2025E Total Production 7,202 7,150 – 7,250 7,000 – 7,200 Production Expense $0.23 $0.23 – $0.28 Haynesville 2,978 ~3,05
Slide 21: 2Q25 EXE Business Unit Results
2Q25 EXE Business Unit Results Haynesville NE Appalachia SW Appalachia Production (MMcfe/d) 2,978 2,662 1,562 Production Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.25 $0.15 $0.33 Differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf) $(0.32) $(0.79) $(0.33) GP&T ($/Mcfe) $0.66 $0.84 $1.27 Rigs 7 2 2 Spuds (by zone) Haynesville 22 Bossier 2 Lower
Slide 22: Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points
Haynesville, Northeast and Southwest Appalachia Sales Points Haynesville Sales Points Northeast Appalachia Sales Points Southwest Appalachia Sales Points DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) DEDUCT FROM NYMEX ($)(1) Historical Avg Current Historical Avg Current Historical Avg Current CG
Slide 23: Being LNG Ready Will Create Meaningful Value and Enhance Returns
Being LNG Ready Will Create Meaningful Value and Enhance Returns Growing Exports Expected to be Significant to U.S. Gas Demand (U.S. LNG Capacity, Bcf/d)(1) ▪ EXE portfolio uniquely positioned to meet growing LNG demand ~32 Bcf/d of total LNG export capacity expected by 2029 Commonwealth Port Arthur
Slide 24: Revised Tax Outlook
Revised Tax Outlook ▪ Passage of the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) on July 4 restores the incentives for domestic capital investment and research expenditures, as well as creates parity amongst types of capital investments for purposes of computing the book minimum tax Effective Reduces Reduces Mos
Slide 25: Haynesville Productivity by Vintage
Haynesville Productivity by Vintage EXE 12-Month Cumulative Production Remains Consistent ▪ Haynesville productivity 2020-2023 Internal 2024 Internal 2025 Internal remains strong and on trend 2020-2023 State Data 2024 State Data 2025 State Data with historical performance 900 800 ▪ Current public da
Slide 26: Minimal Near-term Impact from Tariffs
Minimal Near-term Impact from Tariffs Illustrative AFE Components and Cost Trends YE24 compared to YE25 expectations ▪ Supply Chain outlook unchanged from 1Q as service pricing offsets potential tariff impacts PHASE SUB-CATEGORY % OF AFE TREND • OFS demand remains near recent-term lows OCTG 8% – 12%
Slide 27: Fully Diluted Share Count Breakdown
Fully Diluted Share Count Breakdown Shares in millions, as of 7/24/2025 2 238 238 240 Shares Warrants Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 27 2Q 2025 Earnings
Slide 28: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program NATURAL GAS ESTIMATED NYMEX GAS SETTLEMENT ($mm) SWAPS COSTLESS COLLARS THREE-WAY COLLARS $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Date Bought Bought Date Volume Price Volume Sold Call Volume Sold Call Sold Put NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX NYMEX Put Put Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mc
Slide 29: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS ESTIMATED NGL SETTLEMENT ($mm) C2 SWAPS C3 SWAPS C4 SWAPS C5 SWAPS Date Date $0.25 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal MBbl $/gal 1Q 2025 900 0.25 603 0.73 1
Slide 30: Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program
Reducing Risk, Protecting Returns Through Hedge Program CRUDE OIL ESTIMATED NYMEX WTI SETTLEMENT ($mm) SWAPS COSTLESS COLLARS THREE-WAY COLLARS $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 Date Bought Bought Date Volume Price Volume Sold Call Volume Sold Call Sold Put WTI WTI WTI WTI Put Put MBbl $/Bbl MBbl $/Bbl MB
Slide 31: Hedged Financial Basis
Hedged Financial Basis HAYNESVILLE NORTHEAST APPALACHIA CGT MAINLINE TETCO WLA TGT Z1 TETCO M3 TGP Z4 300L LEIDY EASTERN GAS Date Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Volume Avg. Price Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf $/Mcf Bcf
Slide 32: Shareholder Returns (Unaudited)
Shareholder Returns (Unaudited) Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 ($ and shares in millions, except per share amounts) Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities (GAAP) $ 2,418 Less cash capital expenditures (1,220) Less contributions to investments (9) Less cash paid for common stock base dividends (Tr
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures As a supplement to the financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, Expand Energy’s quarterly earnings presentations contain certain financial measures that are not prepared or presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures include A
Slide 34: Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating EBITDAX (Unaudited) Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Unaudited) Three Three Three Three Three Months Months Months Months Months Ended Ended Ended Ended Trailing Ended June 30, March 31, December 3
Slide 35: Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Reconciliation of Total Debt to Total Capitalization Activities to Adjusted EBITDAX (Unaudited) (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 June 30, 2025 ($ in millions) ($ in millions) Net Cash Provided by Operating