Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Investor Day (November 2008)
72 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s investor day presentation, Nov 21, 2008
Slide 1: Duke Energy Analyst Meeting
DUKE ENERGY ANALYST MEETING November 21, 2008
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT Some of the statements in this document concerning future company performance will be forward-looking within the meanings of the securities laws. Actual results may materially differ from those discussed in these forward-looking statements, and you should refer to the additiona
Slide 3: Agenda
AGENDA 8:00 – 8:15 Opening Comments Jim Rogers – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer 8:15 – 9:30 Commissioners Roundtable 9:30 – 9:45 Break 9:45 – 9:50 Safe Harbor Statement and Sean Trauschke – Senior Vice President, Investor Introductions Relations and Financial Planning 9:50
Slide 4: Regulatory & Legislative Update
REGULATORY & LEGISLATIVE UPDATE Keith Trent Chief Strategy, Policy and Regulatory Officer
Slide 5: Building the Bridge to a Carbon Efficient World: Five-Year Strategic Plan
BUILDING THE BRIDGE TO A CARBON EFFICIENT WORLD FIVE-YEAR STRATEGIC PLAN Fleet Modernization Cliffside Unit No. 6 Today Carbon Edwardsport IGCC Efficient Buck and Dan River Future Lee Nuclear Renewables Grid Modernization Smart Grid Save-A-Watt Fleet Grid Commercial Modernization Moder
Slide 6: Regulatory and Legislative Strategy
REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE STRATEGY Regulatory and Legislative Major Drivers Goals Levers 1. Reduce regulatory lag Future test year “Capital Adder” Rising Costs and 2. Enhance cost major Process effectiveness of infrastructure Enhanced recovery of nuclear investments purchased power 3. Execute
Slide 7: Building the Bridge – Regulatory Framework Under Way
BUILDING THE BRIDGE – REGULATORY FRAMEWORK UNDER WAY Fleet Modernization Cliffside Unit No. 6 – CPCN issued 2007; air permit issued January 2008 Buck and Dan River – CPCNs issued June 2008; Buck air permit issued October 2008 Edwardsport IGCC – CPCN issued 2007; air permit issued January 2008;
Slide 8: Lee Nuclear Project Overview – Timeline
LEE NUCLEAR PROJECT OVERVIEW – TIMELINE Decision to Develop Decision to Submit COL Approval Full-Power COL Application COL Application From NRC Operations 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Preparation of COL Application NRC Review and Hearing Plant Construction an
Slide 9: New Supply Required
NEW SUPPLY REQUIRED Duke Energy 5-Year Demand (CAGR) 2013 Resource Need Summer Peak 1.6% 2,000 1,816 Energy 1.3% 1,800 1,600 1,409 1,400 Demand (MW) 1,200 1,000 800 600 369 400 200 0 Indiana Carolinas Ohio Shortfall * Resources needed to meet target planning reserve margin, 15% in Midwest, 17% i
Slide 10: Progress Report – Regulatory and Legislative
PROGRESS REPORT – REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE Energy Efficiency SmartGrid Rates/ Other State Matters Ohio save-a-watt included in ESP Indiana SmartGrid petition filed with Ohio ESP settlement reached with settlement. Decision anticipated IURC in May. most intervening parties. Hearing 12/2008. comp
Slide 11: Carolinas – Projected Regulatory Revenue Proceedings and Price Impacts
CAROLINAS – PROJECTED REGULATORY REVENUE PROCEEDINGS AND PRICE IMPACTS Carolinas Average Electric Rates 13.0 12.0 11.0 Cents per KWH 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 US Average inflated 5% annually Average Retail Rate Revenue Requirement CAGR Fuel 1.6% All-In 6.4%
Slide 12: Indiana – Projected Regulatory Revenue Proceedings and Price Impacts
INDIANA – PROJECTED REGULATORY REVENUE PROCEEDINGS AND PRICE IMPACTS Indiana Average Electric Rates 13.0 11.0 Cents per KWH 9.0 7.0 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 US Average inflated 5% annually Average Retail Rate Revenue Requirement CAGR Fuel 3.1% All-In 8.3% 12 12
Slide 13: Ohio – Projected Regulatory Revenue Proceedings and Price Impacts
OHIO – PROJECTED REGULATORY REVENUE PROCEEDINGS AND PRICE IMPACTS Ohio Average Electric Rates 13.0 11.0 Cents per KWH 9.0 7.0 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 US Average inflated 5% annually Average Retail Rate Revenue Requirement CAGR Fuel 2.9% All-In 5.8% 13 13
Slide 14: Kentucky – Projected Regulatory Revenue Proceedings and Price Impacts
KENTUCKY – PROJECTED REGULATORY REVENUE PROCEEDINGS AND PRICE IMPACTS Kentucky Average Electric Rates 13.0 11.0 Cents per KWH 9.0 7.0 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 US Average inflated 5% annually Average Retail Rate Revenue Requirement CAGR Fuel 3.7% All-In 6.0% 14 14
Slide 15: Summary of Base Rate Actions
SUMMARY OF BASE RATE ACTIONS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 North Carolina Rate Case Rate Case Rate Case South Carolina Rate Case Rate Case Rate Case Indiana Rate Case Kentucky Gas Rate Case Electric Rate Case ESP ESP Extension Ohio Electric Electric Distribution Distribution Rate Case Rate Case The fre
Slide 16: Focused on Today...
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Slide 17: Franchised Electric & Gas
FRANCHISED ELECTRIC & GAS James L. Turner Group Executive; President and Chief Operating Officer, US Franchised Electric & Gas
Slide 18: Overview of U.S. Franchised Electric & Gas (FE&G)
OVERVIEW OF U.S. FRANCHISED ELECTRIC & GAS (FE&G) Infrastructure ~28,000 net megawatts of owned generation, including – Over 5,000 megawatts of nuclear – Nearly 14,000 megawatts of coal – Nearly 6,000 megawatts of gas/oil – Over 3,000 megawatts of hydro ~21,000 miles of electric transmission l
Slide 19: Executing on Our Strategic Objectives
EXECUTING ON OUR STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES How we’re: Addressing near term volume issues while positioning ourselves for long term growth Managing the significant capital expenditures associated with modernizing our generation fleet Improving reliability and customer service by modernizing our powe
Slide 20: Growing the Business – Addressing Near-Term Volume Issues
GROWING THE BUSINESS – ADDRESSING NEAR-TERM VOLUME ISSUES Confidence in the long-term health of our service territories, but the economic downturn has slowed our growth Residential and industrial sales are lower year over year; commercial sales are up in all jurisdictions Added 46,000 new reta
Slide 21: Growing the Business – Positioning for Long-Term Growth
GROWING THE BUSINESS – POSITIONING FOR LONG-TERM GROWTH Prudent investment in infrastructure Maintaining flexibility in timing of Cap Ex spend to address capital markets challenges Cap Ex ($MM) Total ’09-’13 % of Total Maintenance $8,600 47% $3,675 Customer Adds 1,875 10% $4,000 Edwardsport 1,80
Slide 22: Managing Generation Modernization Capital Expenditures
MANAGING GENERATION MODERNIZATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Targeted Committed Project Completion Capital* through Oct. Cliffside Unit 6 825 MW advanced coal unit in NC 2012 $1,800M $997M Edwardsport 630 MW Integrated Gasification 2012 $2,225M $834M Combined Cycle unit in Indiana Buck 620 MW combined cyc
Slide 23: Managing Generation Modernization Capital Expenditures – Cliffside
MANAGING GENERATION MODERNIZATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES – CLIFFSIDE Key Project Milestones Limited Notice to Proceed May 1, 2007 Full Notice to Proceed July 10, 2007 Begin Site Excavation August 1, 2007 Air Permit Issued January 29, 2008 First Design Concrete February 16, 2008 First Structu
Slide 24: Managing Generation Modernization Capital Expenditures – Edwardsport
MANAGING GENERATION MODERNIZATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES – EDWARDSPORT Key Project Milestones IURC Issue CPCN November 20, 2007 Begin Site Preparation June 25, 2008 Start Piling Installation November 3, 2008 First Concrete Pour April 22, 2009 Deliver Radiant Syngas Cooler December 21, 2009 Switc
Slide 25: Modernizing Our Power and Gas Delivery Systems
MODERNIZING OUR POWER AND GAS DELIVERY SYSTEMS $1 billion investment in “SmartGrid” will make the grid “self-healing,” more reliable, safer, and efficient and will empower customers to use electricity more efficiently. Operational Efficiencies Improved transmission and distribution automation
Slide 26: Driving Customer Satisfaction with Efficient, Reliable Operations
DRIVING CUSTOMER SATISFACTION WITH EFFICIENT, RELIABLE OPERATIONS 3rd Quarter Scorecard Generation fleet performance 2008 Availability of assets during periods Safety Current Target Status YTD Total Incident Case Rate (TICR) - 1.19 1.19 of high customer demand Employees YTD Total Incident Case R
Slide 27: Concluding Thoughts
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS We are: Addressing near term volume issues while positioning ourselves for long term growth Managing the significant capital expenditures associated with modernizing our generation fleet Improving reliability and customer service by modernizing our power and gas delivery sy
Slide 28: Appendix
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Slide 29: Environmental Program Capital Spend
ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM CAPITAL SPEND Est. Completion Net MW SCR FGD Cost Recovery Mechanism Allen 1-5 1,145 N/A 2009 76% of total coal capacity Belews Creek 1,2 2,270 In service In service to be scrubbed Real-time recovery of NCCAP through 74% of total coal capacity Carolinas Cliffside 5 562 In s
Slide 30: SmartGrid – What Is It? The Energy Internet
SMARTGRID – WHAT IS IT? THE ENERGY INTERNET Utility Back Office Intelligent network of two- way digital communication Remote linking together power Access Communications Communications Communications Servers Servers Servers system devices and customer devices. Customer Premise Utility Substation Met
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Slide 32: Commercial Businesses
COMMERCIAL BUSINESSES Lynn Good Group Executive and President, Commercial Businesses
Slide 33: Commercial Businesses: Snapshot
COMMERCIAL BUSINESSES: SNAPSHOT Wind Midwest Generation Ohio generation 5,000 MW development pipeline Midwest gas-fired generation Midwest ► Contributes 25% of Duke Energy’s 3,801 MW Coal/Oil 3,752 MW Gas forecasted 2008 adjusted total Wind in Operation - 370 MW segment EBIT* Guatemala 2008 employ
Slide 34: Commercial Businesses: Earnings and Growth Drivers
COMMERCIAL BUSINESSES: EARNINGS AND GROWTH DRIVERS ►Overall Focus Areas: Commercial Availability, Safety, Cost Control, Return on Invested Capital Growth Drivers ESP settlement ensures revenue certainty for legacy coal assets Midwest and drives earnings growth Generation Strategic alternatives a
Slide 35: Midwest Generation: ESP Update
MIDWEST GENERATION: ESP UPDATE ►ESP Update: Settlement provides earnings stream for 2009-2011 and locks in earnings growth Proposed settlement reached in October (subject to PUCO approval) Term: 2009-2011, Rates effective 1/1/2009 Overall annual average increase in customer rates: 2009 and 201
Slide 36: Midwest Generation: Gas Assets
MIDWEST GENERATION: GAS ASSETS ► Gas Asset Portfolio PJM Capacity Auction 3,600 MW (87% in PJM) (Midwest gas-fired assets receiving auction price) 2,480 MW Combined-Cycle 1,120 MW Peaking 3,500 Merchant exposure 3,000 $110 / ► Key Drivers MWDay 2,500 $174 / $124 / PJM capacity value is a s
Slide 37: Latin American Portfolio: Low Risk Profile
LATIN AMERICAN PORTFOLIO: LOW RISK PROFILE Generation, with primarily wholesale energy & capacity sales. Improving returns on ► Focus existing assets. High percentage of generating capacity contracted and/or receives system capacity ► Low Merchant Risk payment. Average tenor 4.5 years. ► Low Dispatc
Slide 38: Duke Energy International: Latin America
DUKE ENERGY INTERNATIONAL: LATIN AMERICA Houston ► Projects Under Development MEXICO BELIZE ► DEI Growth Strategy GUATEMALA HONDURAS Brazil Guatemala Hydro Greenfield COD Q1 2010 NICARAGUA Generation-focused San Salvador COSTA RICA PANAMA VENEZUELA Pursuing investment in a mix of GUYANA FRENCH
Slide 39: Duke Energy International: FX Outlook and Earnings Sensitivity
DUKE ENERGY INTERNATIONAL: FX OUTLOOK AND EARNINGS SENSITIVITY ► FX Outlook ► Earnings Outlook In August 2008, Brazil spot curve reached its lowest level In 2009, a .50 spread between the spot and forward in 5 years curves is worth ~$50MM of EBIT and ~$25MM of Net In late August, the 2009 spre
Slide 40: Wind Business: Snapshot
WIND BUSINESS: SNAPSHOT ► FIRST YEAR ACCOMPLISHMENTS ► Strategic Plan Established integrated wind team within Growth plan of 250 MW/year Duke organization Primarily backed by long term contracts Experienced developers Pursue JV structures to accelerate growth and In-house engineering & co
Slide 41: Commercial Businesses: Summary
COMMERCIAL BUSINESSES: SUMMARY ►Commercial Businesses represent a low-risk, complementary growth option for Duke Energy Existing Assets Asset Growth Generation in Renewable Safe and Reliable Enhanced Returns Strong Latin Generation in the Operations and Earnings American Markets US Maintain low-risk
Slide 42: Appendix
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Slide 43: Appendix: Biomass JV with AREVA - Adage
APPENDIX: BIOMASS JV WITH AREVA - ADAGE ►Background JV with AREVA announced September 24, 2008 First Biopower partnership in the United States between major energy companies AREVA is a large multi-national EPC services ►Strategy company with international Biomass experience Develop wood wast
Slide 44: Appendix: Duke Energy International NMC Fact Sheet
APPENDIX: DUKE ENERGY INTERNATIONAL NMC FACT SHEET ► Overview and Product Summary Partnership Structure: SABIC (50%), Celanese (25%) and Duke Energy (25%) Duke Energy interest acquired thru acquisition of PanEnergy (Texas Eastern an original investor) Joint Venture agreement signed in 1981, li
Slide 45: Appendix: 3rd Quarter Scorecard
APPENDIX: 3rd QUARTER SCORECARD 2008 Safety Current Status Target YTD Total Incident Case Rate (TICR) 0.90 0.85 Customer Satisfaction DEGS customer interruptions = Customer service 9 12 curtailment/contract curtailment 2008 Reliability Current Status Target Commercial Coal Fleet Commercial Availabil
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Slide 47: Financial Overview
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW DAVID HAUSER GROUP EXECUTIVE AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Slide 48: 2009 Through 2013 Focus
2009 THROUGH 2013 FOCUS Focus on maintaining liquidity Focused on long-term Adjusted Earnings and Dividend Growth through 2013 Execution of regulatory initiatives Capital reinvestment Growth in our non-regulated businesses Continued focus on cost control No anticipated equity offerings
Slide 49: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR) Adjusted earnings per share growth of 5 – 7% (CAGR) based on: $1.15 in 2007 through 2012 – Achievable $1.23 in 2007 through 2012 – Achievable $1.20 in 2008 through 2013 – Achievable In order to achieve these growth rates, contributions from some combinati
Slide 50: Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS Operational Placeholder investment in Lee Nuclear over the five-year planning period No joint venture of the wind business is assumed Plans to pursue monetization of select Midwest Gas Plants Pension contributions of approximately $500 M in 2009 Financing Requirements – 4Q 20
Slide 51: 2009 Cash Flows
2009 CASH FLOWS ($ in millions) 2009 Estimate Primary Sources: Net Income* $ 1,550 Depreciation & Amortization 1,825 Total Sources $ 3,375 Primary Uses: Capital and Investment Expenditures (4,750) Dividends (1,200) Other Sources/(Uses), net 625 Total Uses $ (5,325) Uses in Excess of Sources (1,950)
Slide 52: Capital Expenditures
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES(1) ($ in millions) 2009 2010 - 2013 Cumulative US Franchised Electric & Gas System growth $ 1,925 $ 5,900 $ 7,825 Environmental 200 100 300 Nuclear Fuel 150 1,250 1,400 Maintenance and Other 1,400 7,200 8,600 Total US Franchised Electric & Gas 3,675 14,450 18,125 Commercial Powe
Slide 53: Capital Expenditures: System Growth – US Franchised Electric & Gas
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES SYSTEM GROWTH – US FRANCHISED ELECTRIC & GAS ($ in millions) 2009 2010 - 2013 Cumulative US Franchised Electric & Gas Power Delivery Customer Connections $ 300 $ 1,575 $ 1,875 Edwardsport IGCC 725 1,075 1,800 Cliffside 550 650 1,200 CC / CT Additions - Carolinas 200 1,000 1,200
Slide 54: Reinvestment Supports Earnings Growth
REINVESTMENT SUPPORTS EARNINGS GROWTH 2009 – 2013 Earnings Base ~45% Increase in ($ in billions) U.S. Franchised Electric & Gas Earnings Base Approximate current earnings base $ 20 Less: Depreciation & amortization (9) $19 $18 OH/KY $2 Capital Expenditures 18 IN $4 $5 $27 $29 $(9) Estimated 2013 ear
Slide 55: Strong Balance Sheet / Financial Flexibility
STRONG BALANCE SHEET / FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY Expect to maintain solid, investment-grade credit metrics Balance sheet debt to total capitalization ratio projected to be ~ 50% by 2013 Allows earnings growth with modest equity issuance – aggregate of $600 M beginning in late 2008 through middle o
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Slide 57: Nuclear Operations
NUCLEAR OPERATIONS Dhiaa Jamil Group Executive and Chief Nuclear Officer
Slide 58: Nuclear Fleet Overview
NUCLEAR FLEET OVERVIEW Duke Energy’s Nuclear Fleet McGuire Nuclear Station Seven nuclear units 6,996 megawatts of capacity >50 percent of DE-Carolinas generation in Catawba Nuclear 2007 Oconee Nuclear Station Station 2007 nuclear system capacity factor – 92 percent Oconee Nuclear Station React
Slide 59: Nuclear Fleet Overview: McGuire and Catawba
NUCLEAR FLEET OVERVIEW McGuire Nuclear Station Reactor type: pressurized water Number of units: 2 Station capacity: 2,200 megawatts Commercial operation: unit 1 – 1981; unit 2 – 1984 Operating license: unit 1 – 2041; unit 2 – 2043 Catawba Nuclear Station Reactor type: pressurized water
Slide 60: Strong Nuclear Fleet Performance
STRONG NUCLEAR FLEET PERFORMANCE Duke Fleet Average Capacity Factor Nuclear Fleet Operating Cost Performance Good 96 2005 2006 2007 94 Company A Company A Company A 92 Duke Energy Company B Company B 90 Company B Company C Duke Energy Company C Duke Energy Company C 88 Company D Company D Company F
Slide 61: Nuclear Fleet – Key Performance Indicators (KPI)
NUCLEAR FLEET – KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPI) Safety Reliability Efficiency Personal Personal Capacity Capacity Factor Factor Total Total Operating Operating Costs Costs Radiological Radiological (Dose) (Dose) Forced Forced Loss Loss Rate Rate Nuclear Nuclear (Scrams) (Scrams)
Slide 62: Solid Nuclear Fuel Cost Performance
SOLID NUCLEAR FUEL COST PERFORMANCE Nuclear fuel purchasing strategy Portfolio approach Diversify supply risks Insulate against market volatility 7.0 Fuel Expense ($/MWhr) Stagger contracts over time 6.0 Top 10 Vast majority of fuel supplied 5.0 Duke System under long-term contracts 4.0
Slide 63: Extensive Nuclear Fuel Coverage
EXTENSIVE NUCLEAR FUEL COVERAGE Mined Uranium (U3O8) Chemical Conversion to UF6 Represents ~30% of nuclear fuel costs Represents ~5% of nuclear fuel costs Contract Coverage through 2013 Contract Coverage through 2012 Isotopic Enrichment Fuel Fabrication (UO2) Represents ~45% of nuclear fuel costs Re
Slide 64: Expanding the Nuclear Fleet
EXPANDING THE NUCLEAR FLEET Proposed William S. Lee III Nuclear Station McGuire Nuclear Station Site: Gaffney, South Carolina Station capacity: 2,234 megawatts Catawba Nuclear Station Number of units: 2 Oconee Nuclear Reactor technology: Westinghouse AP1000 Station Lee Nuclear Station pressu
Slide 65: Lee Nuclear Project Overview – Timeline
LEE NUCLEAR PROJECT OVERVIEW – TIMELINE Decision to Develop Decision to Submit COL Approval Full-Power COL Application COL Application From NRC Operations 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Preparation of COL Application NRC Review and Hearing Plant Construction an
Slide 66: Path Forward – A Measured Approach
PATH FORWARD – A MEASURED APPROACH Cost & Schedule Control Alternative Financing Approaches Third Party Cost Estimate Review Regional Partnerships, Detailed Design Prior to Site Deployment Joint Ownership, Sales Agreements COLA Review Predictable Licensing Process State Initiatives Federal Initiativ
Slide 67: EGF J
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Slide 68: Non-GAAP Reconciliations for SEC Regulation G
Duke Energy Corporation Non-GAAP Reconciliations for SEC Regulation G November 21, 2008 Analyst Meeting Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share (“EPS”) The materials for Duke Energy Corporation’s (“Duke Energy”) November 21, 2008 Analyst Meeting include a reference to adjusted diluted EPS. Adjusted dilu
Slide 69: Adjusted Diluted EPS and Adjusted Segment EBIT Notes
under “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share (‘EPS’)”). The most directly comparable GAAP measure for adjusted diluted EPS is reported diluted EPS from continuing operations, which includes the impact of special items and the mark-to-market impacts of economic hedges in the Commercial Power segment. D
Slide 70: Latin American Portfolio Cash Flows and FFO Ratios
Latin American Portfolio Cash Flows The materials for Duke Energy’s November 21, 2008 Analyst Meeting include a reference to management’s expectation that the Latin American portfolio of assets will have significant annual free cash flow of approximately $200 million to $300 million in the period of
Slide 71: Adjusted to Reported Earnings Reconciliation
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION ADJUSTED TO REPORTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION December 2007 Year-to-date (Dollars in millions, except per-share amounts) Special Items (Note 1) Costs to Convertible Achieve, Settlement Economic Adjusted Debt Costs, Cinergy IT Severance Reserve Hedges (Mark- Discontinued Total
Slide 72: Cash Flow Reconciliation Required by SEC Regulation G
Duke Energy Corporation November 21, 2008 Analysts Meeting Cash Flow Reconciliation Required by SEC Regulation G ($ in Millions) Forecast 2009 Primary Sources: Net income (1) a $ 1,550 Depreciation & amortization a 1,825 Total Sources 3,375 Primary Uses: Capital and Investment Expenditures b (4,750)