Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation
67 slides from Assured Guaranty's earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2025
Slide 1: Equity Investor Presentation
Equity Investor Presentation Year-to-Date through September 30, 2025
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 3: Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – Ratings on Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. ▪ Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by
Slide 4: Table of Contents
Table of Contents • Quarterly highlights • Assured Guaranty overview – Strength of business model – Financial strength ratings – Track record of creating shareholder value – Dividend limitation calculations – Simplified corporate structure • Underlying value – High-quality investment portfolio – Del
Slide 5: Highlights
ASSURED GUARANTY Highlights
Slide 6: Third Quarter 2025 Highlights
Third Quarter 2025 Highlights Financial Results • Earned $124 million of adjusted operating income1 ($2.57 per share), – This represents a 6% increase on a per share basis above the third quarter 2024 amount • Increased shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL per share, adjusted operating sharehold
Slide 7: YTD 2025 Highlights
YTD 2025 Highlights Financial Results • Earned $336 million of adjusted operating income1 (or $6.77 per share) – This amount is 17% larger than adjusted operating income1 per share in the same period of 2024 Insurance • Insured $25 billion of new business par, the highest amount insured in the first
Slide 8: New Insurance Business Production
New Insurance Business Production • Assured Guaranty insured $25 billion of Gross Par Written (YTD; $ in millions) aggregate par in the first nine months of 2025 – This aggregate amount of par is the largest amount $24,539 in the first nine months in a decade $20,170 $20,285 $20,603 – The $9 billion
Slide 9: Assured Guaranty Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Assured Guaranty Overview
Slide 10: Financial Guaranty Business Model
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model • What do we insure? – We insure financial obligations in three main sectors ▪ U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Non-U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Global structured finance transactions – We focus
Slide 11: Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued)
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued) • How do we invest our investment portfolio? – Our portfolio predominately consists of highly rated fixed maturity and short-term investments, and cash – We also have a strategy to invest a portion of our investment portfolio in
Slide 12: Overview and Ratings
Assured Guaranty Overview Overview and Ratings Assured Guaranty Ltd. • Assured Guaranty is the leading financial guaranty franchise, with four decades of ($ in billions) Sep. 30, 2025 experience in the municipal and structured finance markets Insured net par outstanding $274.9 • We participate in th
Slide 13: Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength
Assured Guaranty Overview Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength Assured Guaranty maintained over $10 billion of claims-paying resources1 over 17 years while paying nearly $15 billion to insured investors From January 1, 2008 through $16 As of December 31 of each full year September 30, 2025: ($
Slide 14: Insurance Subsidiaries’ Claims-Paying Resources
Assured Guaranty Overview Insurance Subsidiaries’ Claims-Paying Resources As of September 30, 2025 ($ in millions) AG AG Re2 Eliminations3 Total Claims-paying resources Policyholders' surplus $ 3,268 $ 772 $ 56 $ 4,096 Contingency reserve 1,481 — — 1,481 Qualified statutory capital 4,749 772 56 5,57
Slide 15: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Overview Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) A (stable outlook) / Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) U.S. Hold
Slide 16: Financial Strength Ratings
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Strength Ratings Financial Strength Ratings1 S&P KBRA Moody's AA AA+ A1 AG Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (June 2025) (August 2025) (July 2024) Recent Updates • In June 2025, S&P affirmed the AA (stable outlook) financial strength rating – In their r
Slide 17: Adjusted Operating Income
Assured Guaranty Overview Adjusted Operating Income • In the nine months of 2025, adjusted operating income per share1 was $6.77, nearly 17% higher than the same period in 2024 ($5.80) • Adjusted operating income1 is generated from premiums earned from our insured portfolio, investment earnings from
Slide 18: Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Assured Guaranty Overview Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value • We have returned excess capital to shareholders by repurchasing our common shares and distributing dividends – Since 2013, when we started our capital management strategy of repurchasing our common shares, through November 5, 202
Slide 19: Expected 2025 Dividend Limitation Calculations
Assured Guaranty Overview Expected 2025 Dividend Limitation Calculations Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) (Domiciled in Maryland) (Domiciled in Bermuda) • Cannot exceed the lesser of: • Cannot exceed 25% of prior year total statutory capital and surplus (i) 10% of prior ye
Slide 20: Simplified Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Overview Simplified Corporate Structure With Expected Dividend Capacity1 Shareholders • Total investment portfolio and cash of $90 million2 Assured Guaranty Ltd. • 12-month through September 30, (Head Office – Bermuda; Tax Residence – U.K.) 2025, net expenses of $43 million • Annual
Slide 21: Underlying Value
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 22: Historical Growth
Underlying Value Historical Growth Adjusted Book Value Per Share1,2 $181.37 $170.12 $155.92 $141.98 58.27 $130.67 55.37 CA GR) 49.38 ase (10% 48.06 cre 41.94 4 0% in Val ue: 6 Book Adj. $123.10 $114.75 $41.90 $106.54 $35.66 $88.73 $93.92 $26.06 $29.54 16.53 $24.51 12.13 7.18 8.17 6.43 $18.88 $21.37
Slide 23: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Underlying Value High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash1 U.S. government & As of September 30, 2025 agencies 2 1% AAA 26% Other invested assets3 7% 4 Sound Point 5% • Predominately consists of highly-rated, fixed maturity and short-term investments, Fixed maturity 5 and cas
Slide 24: Total Assets and Cash
Underlying Value Total Assets and Cash • Total invested assets and cash have declined by approximately $2.1 billion since year-end 2009, despite the Company returning $7.1 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends as well as paying $6.2 billion in net claims Total Invest
Slide 25: Net Investment Income and Operating Expenses
Underlying Value Net Investment Income1 and Operating Expenses • Nearly all of the Company’s annual operating expenses other than asset management expenses2 are covered by annual net investment income1 Net Investment Income1,3 ($ in millions) $378 $365 $355 $340 $281 $286 $269 $269 $270 $274 2021 20
Slide 26: New Business Activity
ASSURED GUARANTY New Business Activity
Slide 27: Insurance: U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: U.S. Public Finance • In first nine months of 2025, Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance par was its largest amount in a decade – U.S. public finance total par insured that closed in the first nine months of 2025 was $21 billion – U.S. public finance PVP1 that clos
Slide 28: Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance Non-U.S. Public Finance PVP1 (YTD; $ in millions) $67 $63 • In the first nine months of 2025, business activity $44 $38 included primary infrastructure transactions in the European Union, primary U.K. regulated utility transactions, primary an
Slide 29: Insurance: Global Structured Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Global Structured Finance Global Structured Finance PVP1 • In the first nine months of 2025, business activity (YTD; $ in millions) included an upsize of a transaction in Australia, $82 subscription finance facilities and pooled corporate obligations • During 2024, b
Slide 30: Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Slide 31: Asset Management and Alternative Investments Highlights
Asset Management and Alternative Investments Highlights Asset Management • Assured Guaranty participates in the asset management business through its 30% ownership interest in Sound Point – Assured Guaranty’s share of Sound Point’s net income was $12 million (pre-tax) year-to-date through third quar
Slide 32: Financial Results
ASSURED (GUARANTY Financial Results M4
Slide 33: Third Quarter 2025 Results
Third Quarter 2025 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data and percentages) Three Months Ended September 30, % Change vs. 3Q-24 2025 2024 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $105 $171 (39)% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $2.
Slide 34: Nine Months 2025 Results
Nine Months 2025 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data and percentages) Nine Months Ended September 30, % Change vs. 9M-24 2025 2024 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $384 $358 7% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $7.73 $6.
Slide 35: Third Quarter 2025 Results: Supplemental Information
Third Quarter 2025 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Employee Equity in Net Income (Loss) Compensation, Benefit Earnings Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Loss Expense Expenses and Other (Losses) of Assured Guarant
Slide 36: Nine Months 2025 Results: Supplemental Information
Nine Months 2025 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Employee Equity in Net Income (Loss) Compensation, Benefit Earnings Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Loss Expense Expenses and Other (Losses) of Assured Guaranty P
Slide 37: Insurance Loss Measures
Insurance Loss Measures Loss and LAE reported on the GAAP Consolidated Statement of Operations: • Represents loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) for contracts accounted for as insurance and excludes losses related to credit derivatives, FG VIEs and contracts accounted for under other GAAP accoun
Slide 38: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered)
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 ($ in millions) Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Pai
Slide 39: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered)
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 ($ in millions) Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Paid)
Slide 40: Insured Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 41: Net Par Outstanding by Sector
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of September 30, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance U.S. 1% Public Finance 77% U.S. Structured Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 19% $274.9 billion1,2 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S.
Slide 42: Net Par Outstanding by Ratings
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Ratings as of September 30, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 4% 1% AA 9% BBB 36% A 50% $274.9 billion1 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Structured Finance Portfolio BIG AAA BIG AAA BIG AAA
Slide 43: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Since year-end 2022, net par outstanding increased by $42 billion, with increased par outstanding in each of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance • Since year-end 2016, the composition of the
Slide 44: Puerto Rico Update
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Update • The Company continues to work to resolve its only unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA – On December 31, 2024, the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit (First Circuit) ruled on the FOMB’s second request that it recon
Slide 45: Puerto Rico Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Exposure Exposure to Puerto Rico As of September 30, 2025 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AG AG Re Outstanding Outstanding Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposure Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) $322 $142 $464 $470 Total
Slide 46: CLO Exposures
Assured Guaranty CLO Exposures Exposure in Three Distinct Areas Non-CLO Exposure $273.9 1. $1.0 billion of insured exposure • Eleven transactions • All of the exposure is investment grade • Average credit enhancement is approximately 38% • The Company only pays a claim in the event of a shortfall in
Slide 47: BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Surveillance Category The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories based on loss modeling1 and scenario probability weighting: BIG Surveillance Category 1: Exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a prese
Slide 48: Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category1 Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories As of September 30, 2025 Net Par Percent of Percent of ($ millions) Outstanding BIG Par Total Par • Approximately $7.3 billion (2.6% of total BIG Sur
Slide 49: Total BIG Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Total BIG Exposure • Exposure with an internal BIG rating is $11.4 billion – This amount increased by approximately $870 million in the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by an increase in BIG 1 related to a U.S. public finance exposure offset by the effect of
Slide 50: BIG and BIG Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure • Transactions rated BIG 2 represent approximately 25% of all BIG transactions (1.1% of total net par outstanding) – The largest components of our BIG 2 exposure are U.K. regulated utilities at 81% and U.S. healthcare at 13% • Transactions
Slide 51: BIG Exposures > $250 Million
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Exposures > $250 Million BIG Exposures Greater Than $250 Million As of September 30, 2025 ($ in millions) Net Par Internal Type1 Name or Description Outstanding Rating2 PF Southern Water Services Limited $2,820 BB PF Thames Water Utilities Finance Plc 2,345 B P
Slide 52: Appendix
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 53: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be conside
Slide 54: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 55: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: The Company’s management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit deriv
Slide 56: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 57: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums to PVP
Appendix AGL Consolidated Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP1 Three Months Ended Reconciliation of GWP to PVP1 September 30, Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions) 2025 2024 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Total GWP $75 $61 $440 $357 $360 $377 $454 $677 $612 Less: Instal
Slide 58: Reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation September 30, September 30, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Per Per Per Diluted Diluted Pe
Slide 59: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income (2013-2024)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 (2013-2024) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share T
Slide 60: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income (2004-2012)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 (2004-2012) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share T
Slide 61: Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Sep 30, 2025 Jun 30, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Sep 30, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share
Slide 62: Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value (2018-2022)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2018-2022) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 63: Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value (2013-2017)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2013-2017) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 64: Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value (2008-2012)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2008-2012) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 65: Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value (2004-2007)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2004-2007) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2007 2006 2005 2004 2004 Q2 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share R
Slide 66: Reconciliation of AGL GAAP ROE to Adjusted Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL GAAP ROE1 to Adjusted Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation (dollars in millions) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $105 $171 $384 $358 Adjusted operating income2 124 130 336 323 Ave
Slide 67: Equity Investor Presentation Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Equity Investor Relations Direct: 212.339.3551 athomas@agltd.com Glenn Alterman Vice President Investor Relations Di