Novo Nordisk A/s Class B · OMXCOP:NOVO_B
Novo Nordisk A/s Class B — Investor Day (May 2011)
49 slides from Novo Nordisk A/s Class B's investor day presentation, May 5, 2011
Slide 1: The global diabetes care market
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The global diabetes care market Kåre Schultz COO
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 2 Forward-looking statements Novo Nordisk’s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the company’s Annual Report 2010 and Form 20-F, both expected to be filed with the SEC in February 2011 as we
Slide 3: Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 3 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.9
Slide 4: Diabetes market development
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 4 Diabetes market development Global diabetes care market Global insulin market by treatment class by segments DKK OAD Insulin GLP-1 tMU billion 200 400 Total market: 180 CAGR volume: 7.1% CAGR 11.4% 350 CAGR value*: 14.3% 160 Injectables: 300 CAG
Slide 5: Sustained double-digit insulin market growth
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 5 Sustained double-digit insulin market growth Global insulin market growth The fundamental growth drivers 2006-2011 of the insulin market DKK billion Volume 100 • Prevalence of diabetes • Diagnosis rates and treatment rates 80 20.7 bDKK • Intensi
Slide 6: Globally, diabetes has become an epidemic - driven by lifestyle changes and demographics
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 6 Globally, diabetes has become an epidemic - driven by lifestyle changes and demographics Estimated number of people with diabetes – Diagnosis and optimal treatment projections appear conservative remains a challenge – the rule of halves Million
Slide 7: The world is growing unhealthier
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 7 The world is growing unhealthier Prevalence of overweight and obesity in selected countries 90% United States Proportion of overweight and obese 80% Canada 70% England of population (%) France 60% Italy 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000
Slide 8: Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 8 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 69 years 56 years 1970 2010 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book
Slide 9: Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 9 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 82 years? 69 years 56 years 1970 2010 2050 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book
Slide 10: Implied development in insulin consumption
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 10 Implied development in insulin consumption Insulin consumption in selected countries – average insulin units per inhabitant United States Germany United Kingdom Japan China 426 349 293 264 238 165 99 53 1 14 2000 2010 Sources: Calculation based
Slide 11: Modern insulin is replacing human insulin – as human insulin replaced animal insulin
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 11 Modern insulin is replacing human insulin – as human insulin replaced animal insulin Share of total insulin volume 100% 80% Modern insulin 60% Human insulin 40% 20% Animal insulin 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
Slide 12: Modern insulin constitute more than 80% of the total insulin value market
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 12 Modern insulin constitute more than 80% of the total insulin value market Share of total insulin value 100% 80% Modern insulin 60% 40% Human insulin Human insulin 20% Animalinsulin Animal insulin 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Slide 13: Two-thirds of insulin volume is injected via a modern pen device
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 13 Two-thirds of insulin volume is injected via a modern pen device Share of total insulin volume 100% Prefilled device 80% 60% Durable device 40% Vial and syringe 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2
Slide 14: Characteristics of the insulin industry
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 14 Characteristics of the insulin industry • Chronic disease leading to life-long patient-drug relationship • Significant and growing patient population Significant • Continuous upgrade of insulin treatment growth • Significant usage of modern pen
Slide 15: Novo Nordisk device development for improved insulin treatment
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 15 Novo Nordisk device development for improved insulin treatment 1923 - 1985 1985 - 2010
Slide 16: Diabetes is chronic disease leading to long patient-drug relationship
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 16 Diabetes is chronic disease leading to long patient-drug relationship Insulin treatment is generally characterised by strong brand loyalty and limited switching between therapies 12 years 74 years Insulin treatment 8 years OAD treatment 54 year
Slide 17: Novo Nordisk has significant operations across the world to remain competitive
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 17 Novo Nordisk has significant operations across the world to remain competitive Japan & Korea: ~900 FTEs North America: ~4,000 FTEs Europe: ~3,100 FTEs China: ~2,100 FTEs International Operations: ~2,700 FTEs FTEs represent full-time employee eq
Slide 18: Insulin manufacturing process
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 18 Insulin manufacturing process API: insulin crystals F&F: liquid form Device & packaging Fermentation Recovery Purification Formulation Filling Assembly Packaging
Slide 19: Novo Nordisk's global manufacturing setup
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 19 Novo Nordisk’s global manufacturing setup • API production • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging • Device & needle manufacturing Denmark Chartres Koriyama Clayton • Formulation & filling Tianjin • Assembly • Device manufacturing • Pack
Slide 20: Novo Nordisk has sustained a global insulin market leadership position…
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 20 Novo Nordisk has sustained a global insulin market leadership position… Insulin value market share Insulin volume market share worldwide worldwide Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Others Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Others 70% 70%
Slide 21: …through focus on improvements for patients…
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 21 …through focus on improvements for patients… Modern insulin global volume Prefilled device global insulin market share volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Others FlexPen® SoloStar® KwikPen® 70% 30% 60% 50% 46% 19% 20% 40%
Slide 22: …with a strong portfolio of modern insulins
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 22 …with a strong portfolio of modern insulins Novo Nordisk’s modern insulins’ global Strong current portfolio insulin volume market share NovoMix® NovoRapid® Levemir® 20% 14% 10% 9% 6% 0% Feb Feb 2006 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
Slide 23: Novo Nordisk is now also expanding into earlier treatment and growing the GLP-1 class
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 23 Novo Nordisk is now also expanding into earlier treatment and growing the GLP-1 class Victoza® is driving the expansion of North America constitutes the majority of the global GLP-1 market the GLP-1 value market* GLP-1 sales in bDKK (right axis
Slide 24: The diabetes care market in the US
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in the US Jurek Gruhn SVP Region North America
Slide 25: Outline
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 25 Outline • The diabetes challenge • Treatment of diabetes today • Victoza® performance • Insulin market performance • Focus areas and priorities
Slide 26: Today, diabetes affects more than 32 million Americans
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 26 Today, diabetes affects more than 32 million Americans Increasing prevalence of diabetes 2010: ~32 million 2015: ~40 million 2025: ~53 million <6% 6-7% 8-9% 10-11% 12-13% 14-15% 16-17% 18-19% Note: Improvements in therapies and medical manageme
Slide 27: Associated costs of diabetes represent a significant and increasing economic burden for society
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 27 Associated costs of diabetes represent a significant and increasing economic burden for society Total annual direct medical and indirect societal costs of diabetes (billion USD) 2010: 299 bUSD 2015: 374 bUSD 2025: 514 bUSD 36 bUSD 46 bUSD 64 bU
Slide 28: Treatment of diabetes in the US today
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 28 Treatment of diabetes in the US today Share of patients by treatment class Rapid-only Insulin 14% 24% Premix-only 14% Incretin 10% Basal-Bolus 29% OAD - Met/SU/TZD Basal-only 55% 40% GLP-1 - 20% Diet & Exercise DPP-4s 11% 80% Note: Insulin data
Slide 29: In the US, the insulin market is outgrowing the overall diabetes care market
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 29 In the US, the insulin market is outgrowing the overall diabetes care market US diabetes care market by treatment class US insulin volume market by segments DKK OAD Insulin GLP-1 tMU billion CAGR volume: 5.8% 120 120 CAGR value*: 18.9% 100 100
Slide 30: Victoza continues to drive GLP-1 growth
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 30 Victoza® continues to drive GLP-1 growth Expansion of the GLP-1 market Victoza® source of patients GLP-1 TRx scripts Number of patients GLP-1 % of of diabetes market value (thousands) (thousands) (right axis) 300 6% 5 250 5% 4 exenatide 200 4%
Slide 31: Volume growth and value upgrade drive insulin market value expansion
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 31 Volume growth and value upgrade drive insulin market value expansion US insulin value market growth Value upgrade DKK Penetration of billion total market 60 80% 73% Modern insulin penetration 70% 50 60% 40 18.5 bDKK 50% 30 40% 9.0 bDKK 30% 27%
Slide 32: Novo Nordisk has increased overall insulin market share in the US
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 32 Novo Nordisk has increased overall insulin market share in the US US total insulin volume market share US total insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 42% 4
Slide 33: Novo Nordisk has increased modern insulin market share in the US
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 33 Novo Nordisk has increased modern insulin market share in the US US modern insulin volume market share US modern insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 44%
Slide 34: Insulin market shares and dynamics
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 34 Insulin market shares and dynamics US total insulin market shares by segment Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Conversion rate to modern insulin Short acting segment Premix segment Long acting segment 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% Insulin market s
Slide 35: Focus areas for the US
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 35 Focus areas for the US • Expand Victoza® prescribing base and access • Continue modern insulin strategy of value creation by balancing profitability and access • Preparing for a successful launch of Degludec and DegludecPlus
Slide 36: The diabetes care market in China
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in China Ron Christie SVP Region China
Slide 37: China is evolving as the world's #3 pharma market
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 37 China is evolving as the world’s #3 pharma market 2009 Rank 2011 Rank 2013 Rank 1 United States 1 United States 1 United States 2 Japan 2 Japan 2 Japan 3 France 3 China 3 China 4 Germany 4 Germany 4 Germany 5 China 5 France 5 France 6 Italy 6 I
Slide 38: This growth has been driven by five major factors
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 38 This growth has been driven by five major factors China’s pharmaceutical market is estimated to grow 20% per annum 2010-2015 • World #2 economy in 2010 Robust economic growth • 8% GDP growth for the next 5 years (government target 7.5%) • 2006-
Slide 39: Substantial growth in diabetes prevalence expected in the BRIC countries
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 39 Substantial growth in diabetes prevalence expected in the BRIC countries Driven by prevalence growth Diagnosis, treatment intensification and in the BRIC countries regional difference remains key challenges Million % of people people with diabe
Slide 40: Changing Diabetes in China - increasing awareness and diagnosis
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 40 Changing Diabetes® in China - increasing awareness and diagnosis • Insulin Patient Self-management Guideline, CDS-NN • Changing Diabetes® bus: 3 years, 61 cities, 46,000 patients and ~200 media reports • 12 more cities will be covered in 2011 •
Slide 41: Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest focus on diabetes care in China
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 41 Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest focus on diabetes care in China A total of 3,375 employees across • Commercial operations in China • Manufacturing Heilongjiang • R&D Jilin • Hong Kong Changchun Liaoning • Taiwan Xinjiang Gansu Inne
Slide 42: The Chinese insulin market is expanding significantly - predominately driven by the premix segment
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 42 The Chinese insulin market is expanding significantly - predominately driven by the premix segment Chinese diabetes care market by treatment class by value Chinese insulin market by segments DKK OAD Insulin GLP-1 tMU billion 6 24 CAGR volume: 2
Slide 43: Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes market in China…
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 43 Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes market in China… Total diabetes care value market shares Total insulin volume market shares Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly 40% Bayer-Schering Bristol Myers-
Slide 44: …and maintaining clear leadership in the significant human insulin market…
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 44 …and maintaining clear leadership in the significant human insulin market… Human insulin value market share Human insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly 90% 90% 80% 76% 80% 74%
Slide 45: …and maintaining a very solid leadership position in the modern insulin market
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 45 …and maintaining a very solid leadership position in the modern insulin market Modern insulin value market share Modern insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis 90% Eli Lilly BJ Ganli Pharm 90% Eli Lil
Slide 46: Outlook for Novo Nordisk in China
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 46 Outlook for Novo Nordisk in China • Continue to collaborate with public authorities on diabetes awareness programmes • Continue to be the main source of information on diabetes to doctors • Continue to be the leading patient support company in
Slide 47: Closing remarks
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Closing remarks Kåre Schultz COO
Slide 48: Innovation is the key to sustained growth
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 48 Innovation is the key to sustained growth Liraglutide in Modern insulins Degludec* IDegLira* Diabetes pre-diabetes Victoza® DegludecPlus* FIAsp* and obesity *Note: Degludec is the internal designation for insulin degludec. DegludecPlus is the i
Slide 49: Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 49 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.