Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Tüpraş — Investor Presentation (March 2025)
52 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's investor presentation, March 2025
Slide 1: Investor Presentation
Investor Presentation March 2025 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Refining Market
Refining Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 4: Brent Crude Prices
Brent Crude Prices $/bbl + Russian-Ukraine war 5 yr range 5 yr ave 2024 2025 130 + Impact of sanctions + Post-pandemic demand recovery + OPEC+ cut decisions 110 + New trade dynamics 90 82,6 80,9 - Continued Non-OPEC supply 80,3 90,2 85,5 85,3 75,7 - Geopolitical tensions 83,9 82,0 74,3 74,5 73,9 70
Slide 5: Global Refinery Capacity Changes
Global Refinery Capacity Changes Expectations until 2026: • The global oil demand reached to 102.8 mn bbl/d in 2024. • Net refining capacity additions for the years 2025 and 2026 are expected to be around 0.5 mn bbl/d. Global Oil Demand (mn bbl/d) 2020-2026 Net Refining Capacity Additions Closures O
Slide 6: Middle Distillate Cracks
Middle Distillate Cracks $/bbl Diesel Jet Fuel 5 yr range 5 yr ave 2024 2025 50 5 yr range 5 yr ave 2024 2025 60 45 55 40 50 35 45 40 30 28,2 35 29,6 25 25,0 30 20 26,2 15,9 18,0 16,4 25 23,8 15 13,8 15,5 12,8 14,5 17,7 19,6 20 19,6 14,9 17,4 12,1 14,3 14,8 15,0 17,2 10 12,2 13,4 15 16,8 17,8 17,8 1
Slide 7: Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks
Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks $/bbl Gasoline High Sulphur Fuel Oil 5 yr range 2025 2024 5 yr ave 5 yr range 2025 2024 5 yr ave 50 0 45 -5 -5,9 -4,2 -8,2 40 -10 -10,7 -10,1 -9,9 -12,0 35 -12,1 -13,3 -15 -14,4 -14,3 -15,4 30 -15,3 -18,8 -20 25 24,1 23,1 22,6 -25 20 19,3 17,2 14,6 -30 15 17
Slide 8: Heavy Crude Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) 5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 -5 -10 -15 OPEC+ OPEC+ Cut Russia - Ukraine OPEC+ Cut Red Sea OPEC+ Cut Sanctions on Disagreement Decision War Decision Tension Decision Russia -20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Slide 9: Turkish Market, FY 2024
Turkish Market, FY 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Million Tons Diesel Jet Fuel1 7,0 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,5 5,5 5,7 7,2 7,0 4,7 1,3 7,0 6,5 1,3 6,8 3,4 1,2 1,7 1,9 6,3 6,5 6,5 2,4 1,0 1,4 5,3 6,1 +0.4% +4.7% 0,6 1,1 1,5 1,2 1,4 0,7 5,6 5,6 5,4 5,6 5,8 0,2 0,8 0,9 0,6 0,9 1,1 1,1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 20
Slide 10: Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance
Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance Million Tons Import Export Market Share of Tüpraş -0,4 2024 12M 0,1 Jet -0,2 Diesel 40% -0,2 0,4 Jet 74% -10,9 -9,5 Diesel -7,3 Gasoline 98% -8,0 -5,9 0,3 0,9 Fuel Choice of Passenger Cars 2024 Gasoline 2,0 1,6 1,9 EV/Hybrid 4% -3,2 Diesel LPG -3,5 34% 32% LPG -2
Slide 11: Company Overview
Company Overview Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 12: Tüpraş Shareholder Structure
Tüpraş Shareholder Structure Tüpraş is Turkey’s biggest industrial company and leading refiner. Koç Holding Aygaz Opet Koç Holding andGroup Other Koç Other Koç 77% 20% 3% 6.82% 6.83% Energy Investments Inc. (SPV) 46.4% 79.98% 41.7% Foreign Ownership 43%1 100% Free Float2 46.78% 100% 99.23% Domestic
Slide 13: Tüpraş’ Refining Assets & Distribution Network
Tüpraş’ Refining Assets & Distribution Network İzmit Capacity: 11.3 mn t Nelson Compl.: 14.5 Storage: 3.0 mn m3 Kırıkkale Capacity: 5.4 mn t Nelson Compl.: 6.32 Storage: 1.3 mn m3 İzmir Capacity: 11.9 mn t Nelson Compl.: 7.66 Batman Storage: 2.5 mn m3 Capacity: 1.4 mn t Nelson Compl.: 1.8 Storage: 0
Slide 14: Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies
Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies Mar - 25 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Investor Presentation Company Overview www.tupras.com.tr
Slide 15: Tüpraş Subsidiaries
Tüpraş Subsidiaries OPET – Distribution (%41.7) Tüpraş Trading UK – Trading (%100) DİTAŞ Marine Transport (%79.98) Market Share: 18.6% 32.0% • Transportation of 10.8 million tons crude cargoes and 7.2 White Products Black Products million tons products cargoes. 470,067 DWT 4 Crude Oil Tanker • Over
Slide 16: Tüpraş Subsidiaries
Tüpraş Subsidiaries Entek - Electricity (Tüpraş Share: 99.23%) Entek’s Installed Capacity Production (000 MWh) 86 17.5 MW 112 MW MW 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1,460 50 1.000 1,359 1,341 1,451 1,334 MW 178 1,542 28 MW 800 16.4 MW 600 MW 400 200 24.4 MW - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Natural Gas Combine
Slide 17: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 18: Q4 Product Yields
Q4 Product Yields Q4 2023 Q4 2024 1% Other 9% Other 3% Bitumen 2% LPG Bitumen LPG 3% 3% 10% Kok Kok 23% 3% Gasoline 2% Other 22% 6% Gasoline white Other Fuel Oil Fuel Oil 2% white 24% Light 20% 6% Black Prod. Light Distil. Black Prod. 19% Distil. 26% Naphtha 0% 0% Naphtha 53% Mid. Distil. Mid. Disti
Slide 19: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 6.8 million tons in Q4 2024. • Capacity utilization for Q4 2024 was 93.4%. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2022 2023 2024 Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 8 7,3 99 101 7,1 98 97 7,0 92 93 93 7 7
Slide 20: Sales
Sales • Tüpraş generated 30.4 million tons of total sales in 2024. Total Sales Customer Groups 2024 mn tons 29,5 30,1 30,4 Other 29.5 10% International 27.6 6,3 6,6 sales 6,0 6.0 22% 5.9 Jet 14% Exports Bitumen Total Sales 5% 23.5 23,5 23,8 23,8 Domestic Sales 21.7 2024 30.4 mn tons 2020 2021 2022 2
Slide 21: Product Sales in Q4 2024 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q4 2024 (Million Tons) • Tüpraş generated 7.5 million tons of sales in Q4 2024, bringing the annual to 30.4 million tons in 2024. • Domestic sales grew by 3% y/y with gasoline sales, up by 24% y/y with the increased demand. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Dom
Slide 22: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 23: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) Q4 Q4 12M 12M Million TL % % 2024 2023 2024 2023 Net Sales 173,475 266,622 -35% 810,386 991,203 -18% COGS -162,116 -228,046 -29% -742,355 -832,772 -11% Gross Profit 11,359 38,576 -71% 68,030 158,431 -57% Operating Expenses -5,274 -8,857 -40% -26,942 -28,235 -5% Income/L
Slide 24: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights Net Debt & Net Debt / EBITDA Loan Maturity Breakdown Cash Currency Redemption Schedule(**) Breakdown TL Hard Currency bn TL bn TL -0,6 15% 80 74,0 52% -1,1 85% 40 -54,5 48% 9,0 9,8 Net Debt/EBITDA -90,5 2023 2024 0 2023 2024 Hard Currency TL 1 year Over 1 year Short Term Long Te
Slide 25: Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2023– Q4 2024)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2023– Q4 2024) Lower energy expenses and strong net financial gains supported the PBT despite lower crack margins and narrow differentials. Million TL 22.779 -601 3.977 875 6.782 -15.348 2.718 -7.617 Q4 2023 Crude Differentials Crack Margin FX & Net Interest Inventory Im
Slide 26: 2025 Expectations
2025 Expectations Net Refinery Margin(*) expectation 5-6 $/bbl • ~26 mn tons annual production • ~30 mn tons annual sales • 90-95% average capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~600 million $ (*) Net Refining Margin is calculated with all factors subject to inflation accounting stripped out. Mar -
Slide 27: Q4 2024 Results
Q4 2024 Results Tüpraş Crack Margin ($/bbl) Capacity Utilization (%) 100 16,0 Tüpraş FY 80 Target Tüpraş FY Target 12,0 60 8,0 14,5 92,6 40 11,5 11,2 9,5 9,9 4,0 6,3 20 0,0 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 12M 2024 12M 2024 0 NRM 12M 2024 Operationals (million tons) Total Capex (mn $) 12M 2024 FY Tar
Slide 28: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.12.2024 31.12.2023 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 185,591 290,418 -104,826 -36 Cash & C. Equivalents 73,534 141,525 -67,991 -48 Trade Receivables 37,072 58,386 -21,314 -37 Derivatives 1,469 2,980 -1,511 -51 Inventories 60,278 64,197 -3,919 -6 Pre-paid expenses 1,
Slide 29: Dividend (TL)
Dividend (TL) 128% 104% Strategic Transition 99% 99% 97% 100% Dividend Plan 91% 92% 91% 86% 11,9 80% Our new business model enables us to pay ~80% 7,5 average dividends and we 10,4 will remain as a high dividend payer 1,9 2,2 0,9 0,4 0,9 6,5 0,4 0,6 0,6 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0% 0% 0% 0% 2009 2010 2011
Slide 30: Investments (Million $)
Investments (Million $) Avg. 460 Mn$ Avg. 350 Mn$ 296 980 230 320 400 300 7 After privatization Billion $ invesment 2006-2010 2011-2014 2015-2022 2022-2030 2031-2035 2035-2050 CURRENT PROJECTS ∼50% • FCC Modernization in İzmir of total capex • New Sulphur Recovery Unit in Kırıkkale ESG related • Sol
Slide 31: Financial Policy
Financial Policy Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity, interest rate and currency exposure. Liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios: Leverage & • Net financial debt/EBITDA • Current ratio Li
Slide 32: Strategy
Strategy Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 33: Turkey’s Transportation Energy Demand
Turkey’s Transportation Energy Demand Mar - 25 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Investor Presentation Strategy www.tupras.com.tr
Slide 34: Strategic Transition Plan
Strategic Transition Plan 2022-2030 2031-2035 Capex EBITDA Capex EBITDA Sustainable Refining ~60% ~90% ~30% ~70% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Zero Carbon Electricity ~40% ~10% ~70% ~30% Green Hydrogen Base Year: 2017 Scope 1&2 Emission Reduction 27% 35% Sustainable & Profitable Tüpraş 2035 Average EBIT
Slide 35: Strategic Transition Plan – Investment Areas
Strategic Transition Plan – Investment Areas SUSTAINABLE REFINING ZERO CARBON ELECTRICITY Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Projects Integrating Zero Carbon Electricity to produce Green H2 • Remain as a Major EBITDA Contributor • Ensure affordable green H2 production, capturing • Improve energy
Slide 36: Strategic Transition Plan – Emission Reduction
Strategic Transition Plan – Emission Reduction EMISSION REDUCTION SCOPE 1 & 2 BASE YEAR SCOPE 1 + 2 7.3 MN TONNES -15% -27% -35% -49% We will invest in energy efficiency & decarbonization Projects, green hydrogen & zero carbon electricity usage in refining to reduce scope 1 & 2 emissions 2017 2023 2
Slide 37: Strategic Transition Plan - Financials
Strategic Transition Plan - Financials Will eliminate our scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2050 while executing our plan and achieving these results. We are $350mn average CAPEX until 2035, totalling $5 bn. sustainable ROACE will remain above 25% creating ~$7bn total CF until 2035 and With ample CF, Net Deb
Slide 38: Strategic Transition Plan - Financials
Strategic Transition Plan - Financials Cumulative Cash Flow Bridge (2022-35, $ bn) Sound Financial Plan 15,0 • Superior EBITDA generation and disciplined capex plan leads to very low external funding requirement. • Strong FCF generation ensures strong -5,0 dividend potential 7,0 -2,5 -0,5 • 80% divi
Slide 39: ESG
ESG Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 40: Tüpraş’s Environmental Highlights
Tüpraş’s Environmental Highlights Water Consumption per processed crude oil (m3/ton) Ratio of recovered water to total water consumption (%) Energy Intensity Achievements 99,1 70% 64% 98,4 59% 76% 64% 94,9 93,5 92,4 91,2 0,82 0,66 0,64 0,72 0,69 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2030 Target 2019 2020 2021 20
Slide 41: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 42: 2025 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2025 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Planned Vacuum & Periodic İzmit Q1 5 Planned Desulphurizer Maintenance İzmir FCC Q1&Q2&Q3 28 Revamp Ongoing Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 10 Seasonal Ongoing Batman Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 10 Seasonal Planned 12/03/2025
Slide 43: Turkish Market Fuel Consumption 2018-2023
Turkish Market Fuel Consumption 2018-2023 Million Tons Diesel Jet Fuel* +6.0% -4.4% +10.1% -1.6% 28 +0.5% 24.9 26,0 8 23.6 24.5 22.5 22.7 +16.8% +6.5%5.3 +38.0% 5,4 5.0 4.7 -54.4% +39.4% 14 4 3.4 2.4 0 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gasoline LPG +23.6% 4.1 4 5 +0.8% -7
Slide 44: Competition - STAR Refinery
Competition - STAR Refinery Timeline Turkish Market Structure (mn tons, 2023) Turkish Turkey Tüpraş STAR Total Market Balance Demand Demand* LPG 0.9 0.2 1.1 4.4 -3.3 Petchem F. 0.2 1.7 1.9 Gasoline 5.1 5.1 4.1 1.0 • Feasibility studies began in 2010 and Jet Fuel 4.6 1.3 5.9 5.4 2.1 construction kick
Slide 45: Competition - Regional Competition
Competition - Regional Competition • Tüpraş competes with 69 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets. • Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia flows Mediterranean Black Sea 54 Refineries ~7.7 mbd 15 Refineries ~1.5 mbd Mar -
Slide 46: European Pump Price Comparison
European Pump Price Comparison Turkish fuel prices are highly competitive with other European countries. Gasoline (TL/Lt) Diesel (TL/Lt) Tax Without Tax Pump Price Without Tax Tax Pump Price 75 75 64,9 65,5 66,3 65,4 61,8 61,4 60,9 59,5 58,4 58,3 60 60 56,6 53,7 30.0 31.6 32.0 29.5 44,7 44,0 28.2 27
Slide 47: Tüpraş - Ratings
Tüpraş - Ratings Tüpraş BIST Corporate Governance Rating Score Credit Rating Scores Foreign Currency Average 97,2 Long Term Tüpraş BB- (Stable) Ba3 (Positive) Shareholders 95,9 Turkey BB- (Stable) B1 (Positive) BB- (Stable) Koç Holding Ba3 (Positive) BB+(Stable) Transparency 98,8 Analyst Recommendat
Slide 48: Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown
Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown • Tüpraş has 30 million tons of production capacity • Tüpraş operates 4 refineries with an integrated system optimization program Flow Diagram # of Capacity Key Units Units (m3/d) LPG LPG 3.5% MEROX CRUDE OIL 8 99,420 Gasoline / Naphtha 22.0% VACUUM DIST. 8
Slide 49: RUP Feedstock and Production
RUP Feedstock and Production • Residuum Upgrade Plant (RUP) was completed in 2015 and it is the main conversion unit of Tüpraş. • The second scheduled maintenance is completed in 1H 2024. 3192 665 184 ~2.4 mt & Jet ~2.8 mt 909 132 Total Processing ~5.5 mn tons Total Output ~5.1mn tons Mar - 25 Hizme
Slide 50: LPG and Naphtha Cracks
LPG and Naphtha Cracks $/bbl LPG Naphta 5yr range 2024 5 yr ave 2025 5yr range 2024 5 yr ave 2025 5 5 0 -6,1 -5,1 -5 -5 -9,3 -5,1 -7,0 -8,4 -10 -11,5 -11,2 -9,6 -12,6 -15 -15 -12,1 -11,6 -21,2 -14,3 -23,4 -17,0 -20 -25 -22,7 -21,9 -23,8 -29,7 -25 -33,0 -34,9 -34,9 -35 -30 -38,2 -36,4 -39,5 -40,3 -35
Slide 51: Koç Holding
Koç Holding Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company • Koç Holding is Turkey’s largest industrial and services group • The only Turkish company in Fortune Global 5002. ~8% ~7% ~22% Koç Group’s Pioneer in its Sectors Combined Total Exports / Market Cap/ Revenues / Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul GDP1 Expo
Slide 52: Latest Webcast
Investor Presentation Latest Webcast 2023 Integrated Annual Report Strategic Transition Plan tim@tupras.com.tr Hizmete Özel / Confidential