Shell Plc · LSE:SHEL
Shell — CEPS Presentation (May 2004)
12 slides from Shell's conference presentation, May 2004
Slide 1: EU-ETS National Allocation Plans
EU-ETS National Allocation Plans David Hone Group Climate Change Adviser Shell International Limited Vice Chairman, IETA
Slide 2: Meeting the EU Target (I)
Meeting the EU Target (I) 1st Kyoto Period 100 98 96 94 -8% Target 92 Business As Usual Early Implementation Average=92% 90 Just In Time Average=93% 88 Late Implementation Average=94% 86 2000 2001 2004 2005 2008 2011 1990 2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012
Slide 3: Meeting the EU Target (II)
Meeting the EU Target (II) 1st Kyoto Period 100 98 96 94 -8% Target 92 Business As Usual Early Implementation Average=92% 90 Just In Time Average=92% 88 Late Implementation Average=92% 86 2001 2007 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Slide 4: NAPs available for this presentation (of EU-15)
NAPs available for this presentation (of EU-15) • Austria • Denmark Thanks to IETA for compiling the NAP data • Finland • Germany • Ireland • Italy • Luxembourg • Netherlands • Sweden • United Kingdom
Slide 5: NAPs for 2005-2007 (previous list)
NAPs for 2005-2007 (previous list) 3500 • Flat industry profile 3000 through the period. 2500 • Remaining upward pressure on other 2000 emissions (e.g. 1500 transport). 1000 • Possible overall Total GHG Emissions Industry CO2 Emissions rise in GHGs from 500 Other GHG Emissions current levels Kyoto t
Slide 6: . . . which could leave a challenge for 2008-2012
. . . which could leave a challenge for 2008-2012 1400 3500 1300 3000 1200 2500 .. .. a ttrraan anndd ss t eemm nssppoorrt tiilll rreeqq 1100 iissss t aann uuiirre 2000 iioonn dd o ess ss kk otthhe eeppt err t ffllaa 1000 1500 tt 900 1000 Total GHG Emissions Industry CO2 Emissions 800 Other GHG Emis
Slide 7: . . .and/or puts pressure on CDM to deliver
. . .and/or puts pressure on CDM to deliver 1000 • Need to start delivering CERs from 2005 for New projects 800 Cummulative project total cumulative benefit. Cummulative CERs • EU portfolio of 284* 600 million tonnes of reductions by 2012. 400 • Cumulative benefit allows industry to 200 maintain a f
Slide 8: Project Timelines
Project Timelines Major Project: Oil to Gas Switch in a refinery 10 % emissions saving at the site 2005 2006 2007 2008 Design, costing, Construction, testing, Internal evaluation final approval, Tender, award start-up etc. phased and approval planning approval, contract, order with shutdown gas cont
Slide 9: Emission reduction projects take time . . .
Emission reduction projects take time . . . Major projects can take 3-4+ years due to; • Capital allocation and approval process. • Planning approval, stakeholder engagement etc. • Construction lead times. • Alignment with facility shutdown schedule* Even minor projects can take up to 4 years due to
Slide 10: Emissions: . . and explains the modest NAPs for 2005-2007
. . and explains the modest NAPs for 2005-2007 Design Internal Tender, award Construction, testing, Minor Project start-up etc., in line with evaluation & contract, order normal shutdown approval equipment Internal Design, costing, final approval, Tender, Construction, testing, start-up Major Projec
Slide 11: Emissions: . . . but poses a dilemma for the EU-ETS
. . . but poses a dilemma for the EU-ETS Internal Design, costing, final approval, Tender, Construction, testing, start-up Major Project evaluation award and approval planning etc. phased approval, gas contract, with shutdown contracts etc. order schedule equipment This approval process needs a clea
Slide 12: Conclusions
Conclusions • Planning needs to start now to get sufficient domestic and international projects underway for compliance. • The market needs to trigger investment in emissions reduction for 2008+, even though the call on industry for 2005-2007 is modest. • Industry needs early clarity on 2008-2012 (a