Uniper Se · XETR:UN0
Uniper — Investor Day (October 2017)
35 slides from Uniper's investor day presentation, Oct 9, 2017
Slide 1: Deep Dive – European Generation
Deep Dive – European Generation Christopher Delbrück – CFO Eckhardt Rümmler – COO 09 October 2017
Slide 2: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Profit drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Euro
Slide 3: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Profit drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Euro
Slide 4: North-western European power markets tightening
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects North-western European power markets tightening Reliable capacities in North-western Europe1 Key highlights Capacity squeeze GW Germany: nuclear exit until 2022 (11 GW), 250 lowe
Slide 5: EU ETS – tighter rules and high probability for higher prices
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects EU ETS – tighter rules and high probability for higher prices Estimated price impact of positions in ‘Trilogue’1 Key highlights €/ton CO2 Tighter ETS rules for 2021 - 2030 Market r
Slide 6: Revised ETS regime could be a main driver for generation earnings
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Revised ETS regime could be a main driver for generation earnings German merit order at current CO2 price Key highlights €/MWh Current status 80 Current ETS regime does not give
Slide 7: Spread between Nordic and north-western Europe to narrow
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Spread between Nordic and north-western Europe to narrow Interconnector capacities Key highlights in MW Interconnector capacity doubling Current interconnector capacity into Nord
Slide 8: Growing willingness to reward availability of dispatchable capacity
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Growing willingness to reward availability of dispatchable capacity Capacity market and strategic UK capacity market auctions Key highlights reserve schemes GW £/kW Strategic reser
Slide 9: Market trends – key messages
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Market trends – key messages Markets Tighter markets ahead EU Promoting a more interconnected market politics Working on a revival of ETS market regime Putting security of
Slide 10: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Profit drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Euro
Slide 11: A well-balanced and regionally diversified generation portfolio
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects A well-balanced and regionally diversified generation portfolio Net capacity by country and fuel type Electricity production by fuel type in GW Sweden in TWh Sweden 5.1 20.2 Fuel t
Slide 12: Portfolio clean-up almost complete
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Portfolio clean-up almost complete European Generation – Existing capacity and future trends Key highlights Closure plans widely executed GW1 Fuel type Closure plans of coal plan
Slide 13: Long remaining lifespans across main fuel types
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Long remaining lifespans across main fuel types Technical lifespan, expiry of concessions and Key highlights economic lifespans by fuel type from 2020 to 2100+ Hydro fleet Lifesp
Slide 14: Operational excellence – Strict optimization of maintenance capex
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Operational excellence – Strict optimization of maintenance capex Valued-driven maintenance capex Key highlights Sucessful change in approach Lower sustainable investments levels
Slide 15: European Generation portfolio strength – key messages
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects European Generation portfolio strength – key messages Operating in European markets with strongest upside price Home turf drivers Portfolio mix Balanced mix of stable non-whole
Slide 16: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Profit drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Euro
Slide 17: Earnings hit trough in 2016
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Earnings hit trough in 2016 European Generation – Sub-segment EBITDA 2013 - 2016 Key highlights € bn Outright prices 1.6 1.6 Outright power prices heavily down between 2013 and 2
Slide 18: H1 2017 – Increase across all activities
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects H1 2017 – Increase across all activities Adj. EBIT development by sub-segment in H1 2017 Main effects €m Hydro fleet (+) Lapse of 2016 restructuring one-off 91 -6 Nuclear fleet 3
Slide 19: Attractive mix of stable and market driven elements
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Attractive mix of stable and market driven elements European Generation – EBITDA split 2016 Key highlights Fuel type Balanced earnings mix Stable ~60% / ~40% wholesale / non- Hyd
Slide 20: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Profit drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Euro
Slide 21: Profitable outright portfolio
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Profitable outright portfolio Portfolio – Outright fleet Outright fleet – EBITDA split 2016 in TWh Sweden 19.7 €297m UK Germany Benelux Hydro Germany 2 Hydro SWE Nuclear SWE 5.0 Fr
Slide 22: Outright portfolio with price upside into 2020
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Outright portfolio with price upside into 2020 Outright position – Baseload power price1 Key highlights €/MWh Price drivers 35 Coal prices remain a key driver Carbon prices sho
Slide 23: Hydro earnings at turning point
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Hydro earnings at turning point Volumes1,2 Swedish hydro tax lowered Key highlights TWh €m Upside for output 20 100 Efficiency measures widely advanced 15 75 More volume in an
Slide 24: Prospects of nuclear fleet improving
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Prospects of nuclear fleet improving Volume1 Lower nuclear tax relieves costs Key highlights TWh €m Volumes down, availability up 20 20 150 Improved availabilities in remaining 1
Slide 25: Spread fleet with heterogeneous set of price drivers
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Spread fleet with heterogeneous set of price drivers Portfolio – Spread fleet Key highlights in TWh Sweden UK – mixed trend Market generally more balanced between coal and gas 0.
Slide 26: Spread fleet stabilizing in weak spread environment
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Spread fleet stabilizing in weak spread environment Fossil fleet – EBITDA split 2016 Fossil – Wholesale EBITDA 2016 Key highlights Spread fleet 85% of volumes related to wholesal
Slide 27: Long-term contracts as stable earnings generator
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Long-term contracts as stable earnings generator LTCs – EBITDA contribution long-term Key highlights 400 €m Business benefits from delivering 300 tailor-made energy Delivering en
Slide 28: Regulated business of increasing importance
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Regulated business of increasing importance Importance of services Capacity markets – EBITDA Key highlights €m Capacity market mechanism as Sweden 200 major earnings driver UK Co
Slide 29: Attractive additional earnings streams
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Attractive additional earnings streams French wind & solar assets Maasvlakte 3 – Energy hub Wood pellets co-firing 94 MW capacity of renewables • Steam, cooling water and other •
Slide 30: Outright and spread portfolio – key messages
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Outright and spread portfolio – key messages Strong beneficiary of market price recovery Outright fleet Hydro with flexible fleet in good markets and locations Nuclear rebuil
Slide 31: Agenda – European Generation
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Agenda – European Generation 1. Electricity market trends 2. European Generation portfolio 3. Financial performance 4. Earnings drivers for the business 5. Prospects Deep Dive - Eu
Slide 32: Disciplined capex policy
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Disciplined capex policy European Generation – Maintenance capex1 Key highlights €m Maintenance capex benefits from 750 revised policy Stable maintenance capex planned Safety r
Slide 33: Visible earnings growth
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Visible earnings growth European Generation – Main earnings triggers until 2020 Key highlights Quality of earnings improving Non-wholesale business as main earnings driver with c
Slide 34: Key elements of the story
Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Key elements of the story Key parts of our generation portfolio with long residual Portfolio lifespan Market tightening re-powers conventional power generation Market trend ass
Slide 35: Disclaimer
5 Electricity market trends European Generation portfolio Financial performance Profit drivers for the business Prospects Disclaimer This document and the presentation to which it relates contains information relating to Uniper SE, ("Uniper" or the "Company") that must not be relied upon for any pur