Abc Arbitrage Sa · EURONEXT:ABCA
Abc Arbitrage Sa — Investor Presentation (March 2026)
40 slides from Abc Arbitrage Sa's investor presentation, March 2026
Slide 1: Investor Presentation - March 2026
Investor Presentation - March 2026 ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - After Stock market records, “Epic Fury”, and wall of debts. Will 2026 be the Year of the Great Reckoning? ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 1
Slide 2: Key topics of the presentation
ABC arbitrage Key topics of the presentation 1. What we do. 2. Market Parameters over Springboard 2025. 3. 2025 Financial Results & Springboard 2025 Review. 4. How we do it. 5. Momentum 2028 - Decisions for 2026/2027/2028 6. ABC Shares & distributions. 7. Outlook for the 2026 markets. ABC arbitrage
Slide 3: 1. Who we are & What we do
ABC arbitrage 1. Who we are & What we do. ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 3
Slide 4: Who we are
ABC arbitrage Who we are Who we are ❏ One Business: Quantitative Asset Management. ❏ One Team: Enthusiastic technologists, building innovative trading systems and asset management strategies. ❏ One Trading Principle: Quantitative arbitrage. ❏ One Methodology: Risk mitigation & Risk Management. ❏ One
Slide 5: What we do
ABC arbitrage What we do Arbitrage: Providing liquidity to the market with systematic mechanical or statistical hedging position. ❑ Sophisticated trading techniques using scientific & data driven approach to generate alpha. ❑ Statistical and Event Driven strategies - focus on niche, mid-short term t
Slide 6: 2. Market Parameters over Springboard 2025
ABC arbitrage 2. Market Parameters over Springboard 2025. ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 6
Slide 7: Market parameters Springboard 2025 - volatility analysis
Markets parameters Springboard 2025 - An analysis of volatility during the 3-year strategic plan ➔ Two highly distinct 18-month periods across the 3-year cycle. ➔ From July 2024 to 2025 eoy : Volatility emerged as the primary driver for ABCA. Phase 1 - 18 months with average Volat. < Average 10y Pha
Slide 8: Key Statistics: 2025 and the Springboard 2025 Period
Markets parameters Key Statistics: 2025 and the Springboard 2025 Period SB 2025 vs Indicateur Source 2025 SB 2025 Moy 10 ans 2025 vs 2024 Moy 10 ans Marchés Actions Performance (%) - S&P 500 S&P 500 INDEX (USA) 16% 21% 10% -30% 104% CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX VIX 19 17 18 22% -4% (USA) Suivi interne
Slide 9: Strong S&P 500 back to back performance
Markets parameters Specific market situation - 2023/24/25 - Strong SP500 back to back perf.! SP500 ~ +86% over 3Y & Average > 23%/y Euro Stoxx 600 ~ +38% over 3 Y & Average > 10%/y Total Compound Annual Average Compound Growth Rate Annual Index 2023 2024 2025 Return (CAGR) Return S&P 500 (Cap. Weigh
Slide 10: 3. 2025 Financial Results & Springboard 2025 Review
ABC arbitrage 3. 2025 Financial Results & Springboard 2025 Review ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 10
Slide 11: Profit & Loss Breakdown
ABC Financial Results Profit & Loss Breakdown Change In millions of euros - IFRS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025/2024 Useful comments Investment Services Fees* 59,9 27,4 18,3 21,4 22,9 6,7% ~3% from External Third Party Net gains at fair value through profit or loss** 4,3 33,8 21,0 29,8 36,8 23,6% Tax
Slide 12: SB2025 Costs vs previous BP
Review of SB2025 SB2025 Costs vs previous BP Springboard 2025 ➔ IT Y/Y = 5.3M€ / 5.5M€ / 7.1M€ Springboard 2025 ➔ SB2025/ABC2022 nb = +25% ➔ SB2025/ABC2022 € = +31% * HR Fixed = Fixed salary + “intéressement” + Miscellaneous HR ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 12
Slide 13: HR Costs Breakdown
ABC Financial Results HR Costs Breakdown ABC Team = ABC Top priority = ABC largest expense ! ❑ Base cost increase = partial adaptation to HR market + new R&D people. ❑ Strong correlation between Bonuses and ABC arbitrage performances. 2025 HR ❑ Targeted Equity Incentives on a long term basis. ➔ Tota
Slide 14: Review of SB2025 Organic Growth
Review of SB2025 Organic Growth vs Step Up 2019 & vs ABC 2022 ➔ Cumulated CNI SB2025 < Target because of avg. VIX<<18 & ETP ➔ >90% of average income from ABC Equity. <<Targets & very poor Corporate Action act. => coherent CNI. ➔ High positive correlation to Volat. > 18+ with a “Twin-Turbo Effect” ➔
Slide 15: Split of revenues between equity and third party AuM
ABC Financial Results Split of revenues between equity and third party AuM ➔ Revenues from External Third Party (ETP) = 1.7M€ / 2.8% of Revenue (PAC). ➔ At this level of results, ETP Business line close to the break-even point. ➔ Revenue from ETP is historically in the 5%-15% range => SB2025 < Targe
Slide 16: Assets under Management - External Third Party
ABC Financial Results Assets under Management - External Third Party (ETP) ❑ Pre-2010: (mainly) generated through trading of our own equity. ABCA’s AuM ❑ Post-2010: opened to third party funds. ❑ External Third Party Asset under Management - via Managed Accounts & AIF (Alternative Geographical break
Slide 17: ABCA Funds - AIF & Professional Investors only
ABC Financial Results ABCA Funds - AIF & Professional Investors only! 2024 - New flagship strategy built around a modified ABCA Opportunities Fund. ➔ A multi-asset, multi-strategy approach aimed at delivering 'all-weather' returns. ➔ Adjusting expected performance volatility to compensate for a low-
Slide 18: ABCA Funds - 2025 & 2026 Returns
ABC Financial Results ABCA Funds - 2025 & 2026 Returns %12m (USD) = 14.04% %12m (USD) = 17.58% %YTD (USD) = 7.66% %YTD (USD) = 4.27% Estimate as of 20 March 2026 Estimate as of 20 March 2026 ABCA Opportunities 2025 Perf.Class USD Net => +10.3% (31/12) ABCA Reversion 2025 Perf. Class USD Net => +10.5
Slide 19: Historical Results & ROE
ABC Financial Results ABC arbitrage Historical Results & ROE - a success! Since ABCA creation (1995) ➔ 31 consecutive years of strong positive results. ➔ Average ROE above 15% & minimum of 10% over 31y. ➔ ROE 2025 = 14.8% - EBIT ~ 25M€ (~42%). ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 19
Slide 20: 4. How we do it
ABC arbitrage 4. How we do it ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 20
Slide 21: ABC Equity Situation
How we do it ABC Equity Situation ABC equity as a powerful driver of growth! ❏ High responsiveness in seed capital decisions and market allocations ❏ Fully independent from external client constraints. ❏ Pure capital accumulation from ABC’s financial results, starting from ~€10K in 1995. ABC arbitra
Slide 22: Dedicated Team for our core business
How we do it Dedicated Team for our core business 115+ specialists dedicated to ABC arbitrage business! ~75% - R&D + Front ~15% - Risk Management ~5% - Sales ❏ Quant Traders & Research ❏ Risk Control ❏ IT developers & IS ❏ Marketing ❏ Process Control ❏ Data analysis ❏ Investor Relations ❏ Risk Commi
Slide 23: Tech company
How we do it Proven expertise, technological know how Tech company! Robust & internally developed trading systems operating 24/7 ❏ Hundred of Billions of data elements processed each year*. ❏ Active in almost 100 markets across the world - 24/7*. ❏ Not a High Frequency Trading player but Top Tier 2.
Slide 24: Focus on risk mitigation
How we do it Focus on risk mitigation Risk Mitigation Process Strict Quality Control ❑ A compound of all possible risk types — including opposite or offsetting risks ❑ No significant increase in the risk budget over time (+15% over the last 10y). ❑ External incident* in Dec 2020 concerning 2016 to 2
Slide 25: 5. Momentum 2028
ABC arbitrage 5. Momentum 2028. Decisions for 2026/2027/2028 ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 25
Slide 26: Momentum 2028 New Strategic Plan
Momentum 2028 New Strategic Plan – Consistent Ambitions! MOMENTUM 2028 - 3/5 Year Objectives Consolidating current momentum to increase ABCA operational scale. ABCA Progress in ABCA Funds: Strong expansion of WHY Volatility Zones6 2 & 3. Top-Tier 12M Performance. the Hedge Fund sector. Expanding str
Slide 27: Momentum 2028 New Strategic Plan - Some details
Momentum 2028 New Strategic Plan – Some details MOMENTUM 2028 - 3/5 Year Objectives Overview of Short, Medium, and Long-Term Dimensions. ABCA Progress in Twin Turbo Effect - Accepting higher P&L Volatility Zones3 2 & 3. Targeting >100M€ NR/y5 in Zone 33. volatility in the Hit Ratio4. Targeting consi
Slide 28: R&D Capex increase contingent on results
2026 Outlook R&D Capex increase contingent on results. ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 28
Slide 29: 6. Shares & Distributions
ABC arbitrage 6. Shares & Distributions ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 29
Slide 30: Shareholders breakdown
Shares & distributions Shareholders breakdown Over 20% ownership by executive leadership - Ensuring alignment between shareholders and management. * Holding company 50,01% held by Dominique Ceolin ** Management and independent non-executive directors excluding Dominique Ceolin and David Hoey Number
Slide 31: Distribution & Share Buyback Program
Shares & distributions Distribution & Share Buyback Program FY2025 distribution = €0.34 ➔ 2025 - A yield of ~6.5%* based on a distribution of 0.34€. ❏ €0.10 – Ex date October 7, 2025. ➔ ABCA acts as a remunerated hedge against market volatility! ❏ €0.10 – Ex date December 2, 2025. ❏ €0.10 – Ex date
Slide 32: 7. Outlook for the 2026 markets
ABC arbitrage 7. Outlook for the 2026 markets Will 2026 be the Year of the Great Reckoning ? ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 32
Slide 33: 2026 Risk Landscape: a systemic powder keg?
2026 Outlook 2026 Risk Landscape: a systemic powder keg? Macroeconomic Headwinds: Drivers of Market Volatility. Escalating risks, layer upon layer. VIX Geopolitical Risks Wall of Debts Economic Outlooks ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 33
Slide 34: The Debt Super-Cycle
2026 Outlook The Debt Super-Cycle 2027 Refinancing Wall: 15% of global debt maturing, with current rates 2x higher than previous levels. Source - IMF - Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), Avril 2024 2024/25 = +40T$ ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 34
Slide 35: Private Credit Vulnerabilities
2026 Outlook Private Credit Vulnerabilities: The Silent Threat to Market Stability. The threat of private debt is real, yet it cannot be compared to Subprime risks. ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 35
Slide 36: All the conditions are set for persistent volatility
2026 Outlook All the conditions are set for persistent volatility! PE ratio ~28 Among the highest! Stronger probability of a new paradigm of normalized volatility! Historical average = 16 Shiller ratio ~37 Among the highest! Historical average = 15 ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 36
Slide 37: SP500 & VVIX
OUTLOOK 2026 SP500 & VVIX Market Observation : 2026 equity drawdowns are surprisingly limited, with VVIX levels still trading below 2025 or even 2022 averages. ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 37
Slide 38: ABCA - Contexte & Trading Update
2026 Outlook ABCA - Contexte & Trading Update ABCA – Trading Update (as of March 20, 2026) Market context 2026 : Persistent shift into “Zone 3” ➔ Market alert since Feb. 9 : The market entered in a "Zone 3" regime (VIX >> 18) on February 9, 2026, fueled by escalating private debt concerns and refina
Slide 39: Disclaimer
ABC arbitrage Disclaimer This slideshow is a communication support for the investor presentation on FY2025. This document includes some forward-looking statements as statements regarding ABC arbitrage business operations. Although ABC arbitrage believes its expectations are based on reasonable assum
Slide 40: Q&A
ABC arbitrage Q&A ABC arbitrage FY 2025 - Investor Presentation 40