Slide 1: Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q4 2023
Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q4 2023 Dr Roelof Botha
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 01 02 03 04 05 Altron Fintech Total employment Employment trends in Total labour Credit impairments by Household Resilience the public and remuneration at banks at constant Index (AFHRI) private sectors constant 2023 prices 2023 prices 06 07 08 09 09 Household debt costs Household credit Numb
Slide 3: Altron Fintech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q4 2023
Altron Fintech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q4 2023 (Note: 4 quarter average) Index; Q1 2014 = 100 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 AFHRI @20 2
Slide 4: Total employment
Total employment (Source: Stats SA) Million 17 16.5 16 15.5 15 14.5 14 13.5 13 12.5 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 4
Slide 5: Total employment: Employment trends in the public and private sectors
Total employment Employment trends in the public and private sectors (Sources: Stats SA; SARB) Index; 2015 = 100 114 111 108 105 102 99 96 93 90 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 Public Private
Slide 6: Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices
Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices (Note: 4 quarter average; Source: Stats SA) R billion 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 @20 25 Altron All Rights
Slide 7: Credit impairments by banks at constant 2023 prices
Credit impairments by banks at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R billion 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 AFHRI @20 25 Altron All Rights Re serve
Slide 8: Household debt costs as % of income
Household debt costs as % of income (Source: SARB) % 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 AFHRI @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 8
Slide 9: Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices
Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB – deflated by the CPI) R billion 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 AFHRI @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 9
Slide 10: Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond & the prime rate
Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond (indexed) & the prime rate Bond applications 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 April '22 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb '23 April '22 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb '24 Bond Index @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 10
Slide 11: Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond & the prime rate
Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond (indexed) & the prime rate Prime rate 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 April '22 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb '23 April '22 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb '24 Bond Index @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 11
Slide 12: Year-on-year real GDP growth and the real prime rate
Year-on-year real GDP growth and the real prime rate (Note: GDP = 4Q average; Sources: Stats SA; own calculations) Index; 2015 = 100 114 111 108 105 102 99 96 93 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 '18 '18 '18 '18 '19 '19 '19 '19 '20 '20 '20 '20 '21 '21 '21 '21
Slide 13: Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices
Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R trillion 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 13
Slide 14: Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices
Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices (Note: 4-quarter average; Source: SARB) R billion 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 @20 25 Altron All Ri
Slide 15: Inflation remains within SARB's target range
Inflation remains within SARB’s target range (annualised CPI & PPI % change) (Source: Stats SA) % 114 111 108 105 102 99 96 93 90 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 Consumer price index Producer price index @20 25 Altron Al
Slide 16: Year-on-year price level increases for food and alcoholic beverages
Year-on-year price level increases for food (including non-alcoholic beverages) and alcoholic beverages (Source: Stats SA) % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sep '22 Oct Nov Dec Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '24 Feb Foodbev Alcoholic Bev @20 25 Altron All Rights Re served. 16
Slide 17: Thank you
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