Slide 1: Fourth Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call
Fourth Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 25 November 2009 Exhibit 99.3 (Furnished herewith) 25
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures
Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the company’s projections, plans and objectives for the future, including estimates and assumptions with respect to economic, political, technological, weather,
Slide 3: Fourth Quarter Overview
Fourth Quarter Overview $345 ($223) Net Income/(Loss) $0.81 ($0.53) Diluted EPS -30% $6,734 $4,726 Net Sales -28% $7,401 $5,334 Net Sales and Revenues Change Q4 2008 Q4 2009 (in millions of dollars except per share amounts) 3 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 27
Slide 4: Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009
Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009 NOTE: Due to the magnitude of the amounts for the items listed above, management believes the above additional supplemental data provides valuable insight into the operating performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2009. Management believes this presentation
Slide 5: Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009
Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009 NOTE: Due to the magnitude of the amounts for the items listed above, management believes the above additional supplemental data provides valuable insight into the operating performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2009. Management believes this presentation
Slide 6: Fourth Quarter Overview: Net Sales
Fourth Quarter Overview Net Sales Equipment operations net sales: Down ~ 30% in Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008 Currency translation: ~ +1 point Price realization: ~ +3 points 6 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 30
Slide 7: Production Tonnage
Production Tonnage* (40) (44) (42) (54) (41) (43) Q4 2009 Previous Forecast (13) (22) (20) (49) (16) (21) FY 2009 Actual (5) (17) (17) (36) Worldwide A&T (14) (24) (21) (50) (22) FY 2009 Previous Forecast +22 (21) (50) Worldwide C&F (10) (15) (37) U.S. and Canada A&T +5 (18) (35) Outside U.S. and Ca
Slide 8: 2010 Company Outlook
2010 Company Outlook First Quarter 2010 Forecast Net sales down ~ 10% vs. Q1 2009 Currency translation: ~ +3 points Price realization: ~ +2 points Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Net sales down ~ 1% vs. FY 2009 Currency translation: ~ +1 point Price realization: +1-2 points Net income of ~ $900 million De
Slide 9: Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Fourth Quarter Overview
Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Fourth Quarter Overview Decremental Margin ~ 34% ~ 8% excluding goodwill impairment charge and voluntary employee-separation expenses** *Operating loss impacted by: Lower shipment and production volumes Goodwill impairment charge Unfavorable effects of foreign exchange V
Slide 10: U.S. Corn Crop: Percent Harvested
U.S. Corn Crop: Percent Harvested 18 States Representing 94% of 2008 harvested acreage Source: USDA - National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress Reports 28 September – 23 November 2009 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27-Sep 4-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 25-Oct 1-Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov
Slide 11: U.S. Commodity Price Estimates
U.S. Commodity Price Estimates $9.70 $5.25 $3.40 Previous 2009/10 $10.00 $6.80 $4.10 Previous 2008/09 $9.35 $4.80 $3.40 2009/10 Forecast $8.50 $4.80 $3.50 2010/11 $9.97 $6.78 $4.13 2008/09 Soybeans (per bushel) Wheat (per bushel) Corn (per bushel) Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 (Pre
Slide 12: U.S. Farm Prices
U.S. Farm Prices Source: Actual Data: USDA Forecast Data: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan
Slide 13: U.S. Farm Cash Receipts
U.S. Farm Cash Receipts Total Cash Receipts Government Payments Livestock Crops (in billions of dollars) 298.0 11.8 119.5 166.7 Previous 2009 300.6 11.8 120.8 168.0 2009 Forecast 307.8 10.0 131.6 166.2 2010 Forecast 309.3 336.4 10.0 130.9 168.4 Previous 2010 12.2 141.1 183.1 2008 Deere & Company For
Slide 14: U.S. Farm Cash Receipts
U.S. Farm Cash Receipts Total Cash Receipts Source: 1998-2008: USDA 1 October 2009 2009-2010: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 38 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F (billions of dollars) 14 | 4th Quarter 2009
Slide 15: Agriculture & Turf Retail Sales Industry Outlook – Fiscal 10
Agriculture & Turf Retail Sales Industry Outlook – Fiscal 2010 U.S. and Canada Ag: Down ~10% Western Europe Ag: Down 10-15% Central Europe and the CIS* countries Ag: Expected to remain under pressure South America Ag: Up 10-15% U.S. and Canada turf equipment and compact utility tractors: Flat *Commo
Slide 16: Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Outlook
Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Deere & Company Outlook Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Net sales projected to be down ~ 4% Currency translation: ~ +2 points Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 16 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 40
Slide 17: Worldwide Construction & Forestry Fourth Quarter Overview
Worldwide Construction & Forestry Fourth Quarter Overview -98% $89 $2 Operating Profit* -50% Production Tonnage -47% $1,249 $661 Net Sales Change Q4 2008 Q4 2009 (in millions of dollars) Decremental Margin ~ 15% *Operating profit impacted by: Significantly lower shipment and production volumes Impro
Slide 18: Worldwide Construction & Forestry Outlook
Worldwide Construction & Forestry Deere & Company Outlook Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Net sales projected to be up ~ 18% +1.1% -19.0% 586 -2.5% 2009 Forecast -17.4% Non-Residential Spending (annual percentage rate) 873 Housing Starts (thousands) +4.5% +2.1% 2010 Forecast Government Spending (annual pe
Slide 19: Worldwide Credit Operations Credit Loss History
Worldwide Credit Operations Credit Loss History Provision for Credit Losses / Average Owned Portfolio 0.89% 43 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 19 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call
Slide 20: Worldwide Credit Operations Owned Portfolio Past Dues and Write-offs
1.77% 2.90% 0.80% 0.92% Revolving Charge Accounts 0.88% 1.56% 0.63% 0.74% Financing Leases 2008 2009 Oct 2008 Oct 2009 Write-offs Past-Dues 0.33% 0.72% 0.24% 0.70% 3.24% 0.09% 0.35% 1.17% 0.05% 0.23% Total Owned C&F – Retail Notes A&T – Retail Notes 0.40% 0.13% Worldwide Credit Operations Owned Port
Slide 21: Worldwide Credit Operations Owned Portfolio
Worldwide Credit Operations $22.8 Billion Owned Portfolio at 31 October 2009 Information above includes all Deere credit activities worldwide. John Deere Capital Corporation is the largest credit operation of Deere & Company. Portfolio Composition by Market 45 Agriculture & Turf 77% Ag Financial Ser
Slide 22: Worldwide Credit Operations Fourth Quarter 2009
Worldwide Credit Operations Fourth Quarter 2009 Net loss of $22 million vs. net income of $67 million in Q4 2008 Reversal and deferral of wind energy tax credits eligible for cash grants Higher provision for credit losses Higher losses on residual values for construction-equipment operating leases L
Slide 23: John Deere Capital Corporation
John Deere Capital Corporation Fourth Quarter 2009 Net income of $21 million vs. $58 million in Q4 2008 Higher provision for credit losses Higher losses on residual values for construction-equipment operating leases Lower commissions from crop insurance Lower effective tax rate 47
Slide 24: John Deere Capital Corporation Past Dues and Write-offs
1.75% 2.97% 0.80% 0.90% Revolving Charge Accounts 0.51% 1.03% 1.29% 1.53% Financing Leases 2008 2009 Oct 2008 Oct 2009 Write-offs Past-Dues 0.36% 0.77% 0.27% 0.70% 3.61% 0.04% 0.33% 1.27% 0.02% 0.25% Total Owned C&F – Retail Notes A&T – Retail Notes 0.42% 0.14% John Deere Capital Corporation Owned P
Slide 25: Consolidated Trade Receivables & Inventory
Consolidated Trade Receivables & Inventory 1,075 875 425 450 2009* Previous Forecast Flat 907 A&T 1,617 1,262 355 2009* Actual 175 Flat Flat 2010** Forecast Total, as reported Total, constant exchange C&F (in millions of dollars) * Change at 31 October 2009 vs. 31 October 2008 ** Change at 31 Octobe
Slide 26: U.S. and Canada Ag October 2009 Retail Sales and Dealer Inventories
Retail Sales a single digit 6% 4WD Tractors double digits 6% Combines slightly less than industry double digits, less than industry Deere** 22% Row-Crop Tractors 35% Industry* Utility Tractors U.S. and Canada Ag October 2009 Retail Sales and Dealer Inventories * As reported by the Association of Equ
Slide 27: October 2009 Retail Sales
October 2009 Retail Sales a single digit double digits Deere* Combines Tractors Western Europe double digits Selected Turf & Utility Equipment Deere U.S. and Canada * Based on EU Government Reporting of Registrations Deere U.S. and Canada – Construction & Forestry double digits Settlements double di
Slide 28: Material Costs and Freight
Material Costs and Freight Equipment Operations Fourth Quarter 2009 Down ~ $235 million vs. Q4 2008 Fiscal Year 2009 Up ~ $215 million vs. FY 2008 By division Agriculture & Turf ~ $190 million Construction & Forestry ~ $ 25 million Previous forecast up ~ $300 million Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Down $
Slide 29: Research & Development Expense
Research & Development Expense Equipment Operations Fourth Quarter 2009 Down ~ 4% vs. Q4 2008 Currency translation ~ Flat Fiscal Year 2009 Up ~ 4% vs. FY 2008 Currency translation ~ (2) points Previous forecast up ~ 5% Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Up ~ 11% vs. FY 2009 Deere & Company Forecast as of 25
Slide 30: Pension and OPEB Expense
Pension and OPEB Expense Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Up ~ $400 million vs. FY 2009 Change by category COS ~ $325 million SA&G ~ $75 million Change by division A&T ~ $300 million C&F ~ $100 million First Quarter 2010 Forecast Up ~ $125 million vs. 1Q 2009 Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009
Slide 31: Selling, Administrative & General Expense
Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 (Previous Forecast as of 19 August 2009) Selling, Administrative & General Expense Equipment Operations Fourth Quarter 2009 Down ~ 2% vs. Q4 2008 Variable incentive compensation ~ (3) points Currency translation ~ +1 point Fiscal Year 2009 Down ~ 10% v
Slide 32: Tax Rate
Tax Rate Equipment Operations Fourth Quarter 2009 Pretax loss of $82 million, Provision for income tax of $119 million Goodwill impairment charge Fiscal Year 2009 Effective tax rate of ~ 38% Previous forecast ~ 27% Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Assumes effective tax rate of ~ 35% Deere & Company Forecas
Slide 33: Continued Strong Operating Performance
Continued Strong Operating Performance Equipment Operations Cash Flows from Operations Fiscal Year 2008: $2.4 billion Fiscal Year 2009: $1.4 billion Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast: ~ $1.8 billion Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 33 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 57
Slide 34: Other Information Fiscal Year 2009
Other Information Fiscal Year 2009 Equipment Operations Capital Expenditures $788 million Previous forecast ~ $800 million Depreciation and Amortization $516 million Previous forecast ~ $525 million Pension/OPEB Contributions $358 million Previous forecast ~ $340 million Financial Services Capital E
Slide 35: Other Information Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast
Other Information Fiscal Year 2010 Forecast Equipment Operations Capital Expenditures $850-900 million Depreciation and Amortization ~ $550 million Pension/OPEB Contributions ~ $400 million Financial Services Capital Expenditures ~ $200 million, primarily Wind Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 Novem
Slide 36: Appendix
Appendix 60 36 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call
Slide 37: Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009 Agriculture & Turf Decremental Margins
Supplemental Data – Fiscal 2009 Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Decremental Margins NOTE: Due to the magnitude of the amounts for the items listed above, management believes the above additional supplemental data provides valuable insight into the operating performance for the fourth quarter of 2009. M
Slide 38: Supplemental Data – Fourth Quarter 2008
Supplemental Data – Fourth Quarter 2008 NOTE: Due to the magnitude of the amount for the item listed above in the quarter, management believes the above additional supplemental data provides valuable insight into the operating performance for the fourth quarter of 2008. Management believes this pres
Slide 39: Net Sales by Product Category
Net Sales by Product Category Equipment Operations - Fiscal Year 2009 Agriculture & Turf Construction & Forestry 63 Other Small Ag Turf Large Ag Other Forestry Commercial Worksite Construction 39 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call
Slide 40: Supplemental Information A&T Net Sales and Operating Profit
Supplemental Information A&T Net Sales and Operating Profit (Loss) (in millions of dollars) *Information from previous company SEC filings The information below is historical, and is presented for informational purposes only. At the beginning of the third quarter of 2009, the Company combined the ag
Slide 41: World Farm Fundamentals
World Farm Fundamentals Global Stocks-To-Use Ratios Corn Wheat Soybeans Lowest level since 1972/1973 Source: USDA - 10 November 2009 65 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009P 41 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference
Slide 42: Farm Net Income (Loss) Brazil and Argentina
Farm Net Income (Loss) Brazil and Argentina 5.4 2.7 1.6 1.6 14.3 Brazil 1.7 2.3 (2.5) (2.5) 2.4 Argentina Previous 2010 2010 Forecast Previous 2009 2009 Forecast 2008 (in billions of U.S. dollars) Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2009 (Previous Forecast as of 19 August 2009) 42 | 4th Quart
Slide 43: Commitment to Important Markets
Commitment to Important Markets Russia Domodedovo – Modern leased facility near Moscow Shipments to customers planned for spring 2010 43 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call 67
Slide 44: U.S. Net Farm Cash Income
U.S. Net Farm Cash Income 76.1 (252.0) 328.1 18.8 309.3 Previous 2010 Net Cash Income Cash Expenses Gross Cash Income Other Cash Income Total Cash Receipts (in billions of dollars) 97.7 (258.7) 356.4 19.8 336.6 Previous 2008 69.2 (246.8) 316.0 18.0 298.0 Previous 2009 71.9 (246.7) 318.6 18.0 300.6 2
Slide 45: Worldwide Credit Operations Non-Performing Receivables
0.04% 0.05% Revolving Charge Accounts 1.37% 2.66% 2.16% 1.56% Oct 2009 0.43% Total Owned Non-Performing Receivables** Financing Leases C&F – Retail Notes A&T – Retail Notes* 1.64% 0.69% 0.27% Oct 2008 * As of 31 October 2009, Brazil non-performing receivables represent 1.10% of the total worldwide A
Slide 46: John Deere Capital Corporation Non-Performing Receivables
0.04% 0.05% Revolving Charge Accounts 0.81% 4.23% 2.40% 0.50% Oct 2009 0.44% Total Owned Non-Performing Receivables Financing Leases C&F – Retail Notes A&T – Retail Notes 3.16% 0.78% 0.23% Oct 2008 John Deere Capital Corporation Owned Portfolio Non-Performing Receivables 46 | 4th Quarter 2009 Earnin
Slide 47: Share Repurchase as Part of Publicly Announced Plans
Share Repurchase as Part of Publicly Announced Plans $1.7 21.2 2008 $0.0 0.0 2009 Total $ Amount (in billions) Shares Repurchased* (in millions) Actual $0.2 5.9 2004 $5.6 114.5 Total $1.5 25.7 2007 $1.3 34.0 2006 $0.9 27.7 2005 Cumulative cost of repurchases since 2004: $5.6 billion Balance remainin
Slide 48: First quarter 2010 conference call schedule
Deere’s first quarter 2010 conference call is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. central time on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 72