37 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Feb 16, 2022
Slide 1: Q4 2021 Earnings Presentation
Q4 2021 Earnings Presentation 16 February 2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: 2021 Highlights – Getting back to 2019…
2021 Highlights – Getting back to 2019… Brent price increased by 49% y-o-y on average in 2021 with steady draws from global oil inventories and OPEC+’s reduced production. OPEC+ increased production by ~400 k bbl/d since May 2021 per month and is only 6% below of 2019 production in Q4’21. Covid-19 i
Slide 4: Q4 2021 Tüpraş Highlights
Q4 2021 Tüpraş Highlights 1.500 TTF ($/kSm3) Mid-Distillate Crack Margins ($/bb l)* 12 Price surge in natural gas reflected to cracks 1.250 10 1.000 8 750 6 • Energy costs of hydrocracking in Europe were materially elevated 500 4 with the increase in natural gas prices 250 2 0 0 • This has almost fu
Slide 5: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 6: Q4 2021 – Key Market Highlights
Q4 2021 – Key Market Highlights Global crude oil inventories continued to decline while moving Brent Global refined product stocks were at historically low levels, prices up with demand recovery expectations supporting cracks Global Oil Market mn bbl Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec m
Slide 7: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) 2016 - 2021 Ongoing recovery in demand and low inventory levels led crack margins to reach pre-covid levels in Q4’21. 2021 2020 2016-2020 Min - Max Diesel Jet Fuel Air traffic continues to Better demand dynamics gain momentum, no + and low inventory levels +
Slide 8: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Differentials continued to widen in Q4 as OPEC+ remains committed to its decision on easing cuts. 2 0 -2 Arab Heavy -4 Basrah Heavy -6 Kirkuk Ural -8 Average* -10 Iran OPEC+ Cut OPEC+ OPEC+ Cut -12 Sanctions Decision disagreement Decision Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Slide 9: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 10: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 7.0 million tons in Q4 2021, the highest fourth quarter figure since Q4’2016. • Capacity utilization for Q4 2021 was 98% - higher both on y-o-y and q-o-q Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2018 2019 2020
Slide 11: Product Sales in Q4 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q4 (Million Tons) • Tüpraş generated 7.7 million tons of sales in Q4 2021, the highest fourth quarter figure since Q4’2015. • Gasoline, jet fuel and diesel sales were strong with improved domestic demand. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Domestic Product Sales
Slide 12: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 13: Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Q4 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin 9,1 • Tüpraş net refining margin was significantly better y-o-y, supported with stronger crack 6,7 margins and wider differentials. 5,0 4,7 4,1 3,6 3,6 • Net refining margin was further enhanced compared to
Slide 14: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) Q4 Q4 12M 12M Million TL % 2021 2020 % Key Highlights of Income Statement 2021 2020 Net Sales 56,470 19,990 182% 150,972 63,244 139% • Y-o-y increase in Opex is mainly COGS -48,569 -19,396 -150% -135,521 -61,480 -120% driven with higher logistics Gross Profit 7,902 593
Slide 15: Q4 Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2021- Q4 2020)
Q4 Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2021- Q4 2020) Despite devaluation in TL, PBT performance was strong in Q4 2021 with increase in total sales volume, better crack margins, widening differentials and lower interest expenses Million TL 626,625 2429,048 649,766 Inventory +5,098 669,0 FX -269,891 -6,417
Slide 16: Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021-2020) PBT performance was strong in 2021 with better operational performance and lower interest expenses as net FX impact mostly matched with inventory gains Million TL 740,862 2161,0 1989,766 451,625 3520,534 Inventory -1335,0 +9,118 FX -8,530 588,213 -3795,0 2020 PBT
Slide 17: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Net Income¹ (mn TL) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 13,688 3.812 3.319 3.713 493 1.392 8,908 7.267 992 1.766 988 542 526 1.887 1.457 5,882 186 -2.494 1.027 1.700 869 870 1.237 3.778 4,039 378 376 2.739 -375 -760 1.528 738 -155 956 545 -2.265 1.542 2.210 2.512 1.495 383 1.
Slide 18: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) bn TL bn $ In Billion TL In Billion $ TL Hard Currency 20 17,8 6 11,4 5 10,4 15 12,5 9,1 12,0 12,2 4 11,0 11,3 11,2 9,4 9,3 10 8,4 3 6,2 2 5 2,3 2,3 1,7 1,9 1 1,4 1,6 1,5 0,2 0,0 0,5 1,3 1,3 1,0 0 0,8 0 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-
Slide 19: FX Exposure Management (31 December 2021)
FX Exposure Management (31 December 2021) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 853 3,375 Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Receivables & Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 360 320 • RU
Slide 20: Outlook for 2022
Outlook for 2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 21: 2022 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2022 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Status Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 13 Ongoing Batman Seasonal Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 4 Planned Vacuum Q1 6 Periodic Ongoing Lube Complex Q1 6 Maintenance Ongoing İzmir Crude Unit Q4 9 Planned CCR & Isomerization Q4 9
Slide 22: 2022 Expectations
2022 Expectations Med Complex Refining Margin 2-3 $/bbl Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 4-5 $/bbl • 26-27 mt production, 28-29 mt sales and 90 - 95% capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~300 million $ • ~45% of capex for sustainability focused energy efficiency and environmental projects • ~80 mn USD
Slide 23: 12M 2021 Results
12M 2021 Results Capacity Utilization (%) 88% total capacity Refining Margins ($/bbl) 12M 2021 87,7 utilization in 12M Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin 2021 Med FY Tüpraş FY 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Exp Target Operationals (mn Ton) 1,6 12M 2021 FY Target 27.6 mn tons of sales and 25.1 mn 12M 202
Slide 24: Strategic Transition Plan – Latest Updates
Strategic Transition Plan – Latest Updates SUSTAINABLE REFINING SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL Value Added Products Feedstock & Basic Engineering • Signed basic engineering design • In talks with feedstock suppliers for agreement for alkylation project in İzmir potential collaboration. Refinery. • Identi
Slide 25: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 25 Earnings Presentation
Slide 26: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 27: Turkish Market, 11M 2021
Turkish Market, 11M 2021 Oct-Nov. Q3 Q2 Q1 Diesel Jet1 22,8 24,0 4,9 Million 23,1 Tons 4,6 4,8 -0.7% 4,7 0,9 3,1 1,7 7,0 7,4 -1.0% 7,4 + 37.0% + 3.9% 2,2 +44.3% 0,6 0,4 1,3 +59.1% 1,1 6,1 5,3 +18.4% 6,3 0,7 0,2 +258.5% 0,8 1,0 0,9 -36.2% 0,6 5,2 5,6 +0.6% 5,6 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 Gasoline 2
Slide 28: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,802 fuel stations as of December 2021 end. Opet Sunpet 1.766 1.802 Market Share 1.670 as of November 2021 1.615 1.560 1.504 1.444 588 1.325 1.356 1.393 495 563 17.7 % 19.6% 1.279 434 463 431 427 435 410 418 White Black 394 Product Product 1.126 1.152 1.175 1.203 1.214 915 938 966 1.0
Slide 29: Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices)
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş Crack Margin ($/bbl) Product Production Q4 2021 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2020 Yields LPG 768 387 4.3% -11.3 -9.8 Gasoline 748 397 21.6% 12.5 4.6 Naphtha 707 379 1.6% 0.0 -1.5 Jet Fuel 698 363 11.1% 9.1 1.9 Diesel 677 365 4
Slide 30: Q4 Product Yields
Q4 Product Yields Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Other 2% LPG Other Bitumen 2% LPG Bitumen 3% 11% Kok 7% 3% Kok Gasoline 3% 3% Other Gasoline 22% Other white 21% Fuel Oil Light Fuel Oil white Black Prod. 2% Light 4% Distil. 9% Black Prod. 2% 18% Distil. 26% 19% Naphtha 25% Naphtha 0% 1% Jet Mid. Distil. 9% Mid. Di
Slide 31: 12M Product Yields
12M Product Yields 12M 2020 12M 2021 Other LPG Other Bitumen 1% 3% Bitumen 2% LPG 12% Kok 8% 3% Kok Gasoline Other 4% Gasoline 3% 21% Other Fuel Oil white 21% 1% Light Fuel Oil white 2% Black Prod. Light Distil. 6% Black Prod. 2% 17% 25% 18% Distil. Naphtha 25% 1% Naphtha 1% Mid. Distil. Jet 57% 12%
Slide 32: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.12.2021 31.12.2020 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 65,429 30,663 34,766 113 Cash & C. Equivalents 20,400 19,825 575 3 Trade Receivables 13,517 1,736 11,781 679 Derivatives 3,818 380 3,438 904 Inventories 23,756 7,701 16,055 208 Pre-paid expenses 186 234 -47 -20 Ot
Slide 33: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 10 9,3 8 5,7 6 4,6 3,7 4 1,7 1,3 1,6 2 0 -0,2 -2 2018 2019 2020 2021 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin Q4 2021 14.0 3.7 10.4 5.5 9.1 3.6 12M 2021 10.5 2.1 8.4 3.6
Slide 34: Capacity Utilization (%)
Capacity Utilization (%) Q4 Capacity Utilization (%) Capacity Utilization (%) Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 108 99 96 98 7 96 98 95 5 9 8 7 88 9 84 9 82 6 6 7 101 91 91 90 89 87 87 81 78 75 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Q4 21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 *Capaci
Slide 35: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q4 2021 Q4 2020 338 212 209 200 165 150 120 63 66 35 20 20 0 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha Alkylate MTBE 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 35
Slide 36: Annual Sales
Annual Sales • Tüpraş generated 27.6 million tons of total sales in 2021. Total Sales Customer Groups 2021 mn tons 31,5 Other 29,8 29,2 International 27,6 10% 5,8 4,2 24,5 sales 6,8 5,9 21% 4,7 Jet 11% Bitumen Exports Total Sales, 25,7 25,6 6% Domestic Sales 22,4 19,8 21,7 2021 27.6 mn tons 2017 201
Slide 37: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 17/02/2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 37 Earnings Presentation