29 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Mar 4, 2024
Slide 1: Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation
Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation 4 March 2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer With the Capital Markets Board of Turkey’s Bulletin dated 28.12.2023 numbered 2023/81, CMB announced that issuers and capital market institutions shall prepare their annual financial statements ending on 31.12.2023 or later, in accordance with IAS 29 inflationary accounting provisions. Ac
Slide 3: 2023 Highlights
2023 Highlights Brent Crude Prices: • Volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties and OPEC+ decisions. • Peaked to 98 $/bbl within September, stabilized at around 78 $/bbl by the year end. Cracks: • Higher than historical averages. • Mid-distillate cracks: low inventories in Europe with the change
Slide 4: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 5: Q4 2023 – Key Market Highlights
Q4 2023 – Key Market Highlights Refined product inventories kept at low-ends of last 5 year-range, and started 2024 Volatility in Brent with OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical complexities as oil markets with lower than 2023 levels due to increased distances with re-routing after escalated dislocated with
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Cracks were lower compared to the high base of last year, excluding HSFO cracks which improved with OPEC+’s cut decision. 5 year range 2022 2023 Diesel -• Diesel cracks were lower Jet Fuel -• Similar to diesel, jet fuel 45.3 45.4 mainly due to last year’s hi
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Differentials narrowed in Q4 following OPEC+’s cut decision. Basrah Heavy continued to provide wider discounts compared to the rest of the slate. 0 -4 Arab Heavy Basrah Heavy -8 Kirkuk CPC Average* -12 OPEC+ OPEC+ Cut disagreement Russia Iran Sanction
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 7.0 million tons in Q4 2023. • Capacity utilization for Q4 2023 was 97% continuing the strong trend in the second half of 2023. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2021 2022 2023 Crude Oil Semi Product Fe
Slide 10: Product Sales in Q4 2023 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q4 2023 (Million Tons) • Tüpraş generated 8.1 million tons of sales in Q4 2023 bringing the annual to 30.1 million tons in 2023. • Doubling exports on Q-o-Q led the growth in total sales. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Domestic Sales International Sales Dies
Slide 11: Electricity Production & Sales in 2023
Electricity Production & Sales in 2023 • 1,049 GWh Zero Carbon Electricity is sold in 2023. • Total Zero Carbon Electricity (ZCE) sales from production decreased by 10% y-o-y in 2023. Total ZCE Sales Operating Profit Total Installed Capacity from Production (GWh) (million TL) 66 17.5 2,179 112 MW MW
Slide 12: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 13: Income Statement – IAS 29 Applied (Million TL)
Income Statement – IAS 29 Applied (Million TL) Million TL 2023 2022 % IAS 29 Adjustments Net Sales 686,529 916,751 -25% COGS -576,796 -803,671 -28% Gross Profit 109,732 113,080 -3% Operating Expenses -19,556 -16,159 21% Income/Loss from other operations -16,549 -20,668 -20% Operating Profit 73,628 7
Slide 14: Profit Before Tax Bridge (2022 – 2023)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (2022 – 2023) Lower energy costs and wider differentials were not able to compensate monetary and inflationary adjustments and weakness in crack margins. As a result, 2023 PBT ended lower than 2022 PBT. Million TL 05/03/2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 14 E
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income* (mn TL) Current Ratio & Net Debt / EBITDA Net Return on Average Equity (%) Net Debt/EBITDA Current Ratio 1.5 1.3 43% 28% 2022 2023 -0.3 -0.6 2022 2023 05/03/2024 * Excluding minority interest Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt (Cash) Cash Currency Redemption Schedule In Billion TL In Billion $ bn TL Breakdown TL Hard Currency bn TL 60 4 120 120 40 3 98.0 20 2 -27.2 -62.7 80 80 1 0 0 -20 -1 40 30.0 -40 40 -2 -60 2.5 0.5 2.4 -1.6 -3 -2.6 0 -80 -4 0 1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years Over 3 Dec-22 Dec
Slide 17: Outlook for 2024
Outlook for 2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 18: 2024 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2024 Refinery Maintenance Schedule RUP Maintenance Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Planned Preparation and planning phase: 2022 Crude Oil & Q4 5 Planned Vacuum Periodic Desulphurizer Q4 5 Maintenance Planned Maintenance start: March 1 İzmit • Catalyst changes RUP Q1 13 Planne
Slide 19: 2024 Expectations
2024 Expectations Tüpraş Crack Margin expectation ~14 $/bbl • ~26 mn tons annual production, ~30 mn tons annual sales and 85-90% average capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~500 million $* 05/03/2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 19
Slide 20: 2023 Results
2023 Results Refining Margins ($/bbl) Capacity Utilization (%) Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 100 16.0 Tüpraş FY Tüpraş FY 80 Target Target 12.0 60 8.0 16.0 40 87.5 4.0 20 0.0 12M 2023 0 12M 2023 Operationals (million tons) Total Capex (mn $)(*) 12M 2023 FY Target 400 354 350 30 25 30.1 24.9 29 200 24 0
Slide 21: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 05/03/2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 21 Earnings Presentation
Slide 22: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 23: Financial Highlights (without IAS 29 impact)
Financial Highlights (without IAS 29 impact) Revenue (mn TL) EBITDA (mn TL) 16% 41% NRM ($/bbl) Profit Before Tax (mn TL) Net Income* (mn TL) -23% 61% 35% 05/03/2024 * Excluding minority interest Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 23
Slide 24: Turkish Market, 12M 2023
Turkish Market, 12M 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Diesel 26.3 Jet Fuel1 Million 24.9 25.2 26.0 24.5 5.4 Tons 5.3 6.8 7.0 6.7 4.7 6.7 6.5 1.3 1.3 3.4 1.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 6.6 7.2 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.0 1.4 6.3 6.5 +6.0% 0.6 +16.8% 6.1 5.3 6.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.8 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1 2019 2020 2021
Slide 25: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,866 fuel stations as of December 2023 end. Opet Sunpet 1,857 1,866 1,766 1,802 Market Share 1,670 1,560 1,615 as of December 2023 1,504 1,444 588 615 626 1,356 1,393 495 563 19.0% 28.4% 434 463 431 427 435 418 White Black Product Product 1,242 1,240 1,073 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,203 1,21
Slide 26: Q4 Product Yields
Q4 Product Yields Q4 2022 Q4 2023 Other Other LPG Bitumen 1% LPG Bitumen 2% 3% 3% Kok 9% 11% 3% Kok Gasoline Other Gasoline Other 4% 21% Fuel Oil white 23% white Fuel Oil Light 6% Black Prod.1% Light Black Prod. 2% 3% Distil. 12% Distil. 15% 25% 26% Naphtha 1% Naphtha 0% Mid. Distil. Mid. Distil. Je
Slide 27: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.12.2023 31.12.2022* Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 201,149 197,510 3,639 2 Cash & C. Equivalents 98,024 82,008 16,016 20 Trade Receivables 40,439 35,290 5,149 15 Derivatives 2,064 5,927 -3,863 -65 Inventories 44,464 59,453 -14,989 -25 Pre-paid expenses 1,278 1,43
Slide 28: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q4 2023 Q4 2022 1028 541 291 243 187 141 87 73 5 31 6 33 39 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO LPG Naphtha Gasoline MTBE 05/03/2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 28
Slide 29: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 05/03/2024 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 29 Earnings Presentation