Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (September 2023)
28 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Sep 5, 2023
Slide 1: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF)
For personal use only Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager Todd Warren, Partner September 2023 Private And Confidential. Not For Public Distribution.
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The information contai
Slide 3: TGF Portfolio Update
For personal use only TGF Portfolio Update 3 September 2023
Slide 4: TGF
TGF Corporate Update • TGF NAV increased 1.76% for FY23 versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index that fell more than 10% over the same period. A sub-optimal For personal use only result but the outlook for our portfolio and investment process remains bright. • The company commenced a dividend program. •
Slide 5: Why TGF?
Why TGF? • The TGF investment process delivers multifaceted access to the global S&P GSCI Index Sector Weights RIO Tinto EBITDA Breakdown FY23 natural resources market, with the ability to go long and short, when Hydrocarbons opportunities present 61% For personal use only Iron Ore 76% Precious Meta
Slide 6: Performance Update
Performance Update (ASX:TGF) FY Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FYTD 2018-19 -0.07% -0.36% -0.71% 0.16% -0.44% -0.16% 0.25% -3.24% 0.78% -3.78% For personal use only 2019-20 -0.52% -1.93% -0.54% 0.60% 0.79% 3.67% -7.68% -7.52% -9.48% 5.74% 0.47% -13.96% -27.95% 2020-21 4.52% -0.19% 0
Slide 7: Exposure Update – The Portfolio moves with Opportunities
September 2023 -12% -17% -22% -2% -7% Jul 23 Jun 23 Jun-23 May 23 May-23 Apr 23 Apr-23 Mar 23 Mar-23 Feb 23 Net Exposure (%) Feb-23 Jan 23 Short Exposure Jan-23 Dec 22 Dec-22 Nov 22 Nov-22 Oct 22 Oct-22 Sep 22 Sep-22 Aug 22 Aug-22 Jul 22 Jul-22 Jun 22 Jun-22 May 22 Exposure Update (ASX:TGF) – The Po
Slide 8: TGF continues to be actively managed through size and country selection
TGF continues to be actively managed through size and country selection • Portfolio has shifted this year out of smaller cap to larger cap companies, due to liquidity and market fundamentals o Exposure to $250m-$1Bn Market cap companies has reduced & allocation to $50Bn market cap increased For pers
Slide 9: TGF Portfolio: Global Leaders at a 20% Discount to Intrinsic Value
TGF Portfolio: Global Leaders at a 20% Discount to Intrinsic Value The TGF portfolio provides investors with diversified and risk-controlled exposure Net Exposures by Sector to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names. For personal use only Uranium Sector Key Positions Catalyst
Slide 10: Global Resources: State of Play
For personal use only Global Resources: State of Play 10 September 2023
Slide 11: China: Challenging headlines, but the market is already positioned
China: Challenging headlines, but the market is already positioned 60 BofA Fund Manager Survery-Investor's exposure China Risk-Love to China (%) For personal use only 50 China Risk-Love is in the panic zone 2.5 70 40 Optimism China 6M forward returns USD (%), RS China Risk-Love (S.D.), LS 50 1.5 Eup
Slide 12: China: Challenging headlines, but the market is already positioned
China: Challenging headlines, but the market is already positioned FMS investors most UW commodities since May’20 Speculative Copper Positioning vs Copper Price % FMS investors saying they are OW commodities 45 Apr’22 For personal use only Net % FMS OW Commodities 0.1M Last price Net Copper Spec Pos
Slide 13: Meanwhile, global economy concerns fade – Buy Freeport and Alcoa
Meanwhile, global economy concerns fade – Buy Freeport and Alcoa Recession expectations for the global economy are fading… 500 Alcoa yoy (orange) vs ISM PMI yoy (grey) 80 % FMS investors saying a global recession is unlikely in next 12 months ISMYOY Index - Last Price (R1) - 11.9545 400 A1COAY Index
Slide 14: Markets continue to be dislocated from STRONG fundamentals
Markets continue to be dislocated from STRONG fundamentals Global Resources: Overlooked yet Compelling Asset Class for Global Investors For personal use only Supply Side • Corporates have spent the last decade on share buy-backs, Sector Remains Underinvested paying dividends and improving their bala
Slide 15: Supply-side: The sector remains underinvested
Supply-side: The sector remains underinvested • Corporates have spent the last decade on share buy-backs, paying dividends and improving their balance sheets • Not enough has been spent on capex and exploration • TGF provides significant exposure to global companies, with increased exposure to large
Slide 16: Demand-side: Continuing to increase due to the Energy Transition
Demand-side: Continuing to increase due to the Energy Transition More than 300 new mines needed over the next decade to meet the demand for electric vehicle and energy storage batteries, according to a Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecast. For personal use only 16 September 2023
Slide 17: Energy Transition Demand Now Bigger than China Property Demand
Energy Transition Demand Now Bigger than China Property Demand Energy Transition Demand for Copper Now 30% Bigger than China Property Demand For personal use only 25% China Property Markets Global Energy Transition 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Source: WoodMa
Slide 18: Cost Curves are Increasing
Cost Curves are Increasing The incentive price to bring new projects online has increased significantly. Incentive price to bring new projects inline has increased Average incentive price of c. $9k/t, with a marginal incentive price of $13k For personal use only significantly by 30% vs 2018. to solv
Slide 19: Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening
Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening Copper – global visible inventories (kt) Copper Demand – Energy Transition (ktpa) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10,000 30% 1,500 Green Electrical Infra Renewables 1,400 9,000 EV (net) % total demand For personal use only 1,300 25% 8,000 1,200 1,100 7,000 1
Slide 20: Geopolitical factors: Battery metals highly vulnerable due to geographic concentration
Geopolitical factors: Battery metals highly vulnerable due to geographic concentration For personal use only Where Clean Energy Metals Are Produced And Where They Are Processed Production of key mineral resources is highly concentrated today. China dominates the refining and processing of key metals
Slide 21: Portfolio Companies
For personal use only Portfolio Companies 21 September 2023
Slide 22: Santos (STO:ASX)
Santos (STO:ASX) Sector Energy Transition Position Type Fundamental Mtpa Global LNG supply and demand For personal use only Theme Green Policy Driven Demand 1000 Pacific Basin Supply • Leading Australian gas producer with a diversified portfolio Pacific Basin demand and over 100 million boe producti
Slide 23: Cameco (CCJ:NYSE)
Cameco (CCJ:NYSE) World (Historic) Sector Energy Transition Twh 50000 46,703 Position Type Fundamental By 2050, global power demand is 45000 expected to increase by 75% from 2020 40000 For personal use only Theme Energy Transition levels 35000 30000 26,762 25000 • Alpha generated from longs based on
Slide 24: Alpha HPA (A4N:ASX)
Alpha HPA (A4N:ASX) Sector Base & Battery Metals a Position Type Fundamental For personal use only Theme Green Policy Driven Demand • Alpha produces high purity alumina (HPA) • HPA is used in LED lighting, lithium-ion-batteries, synthetic sapphire glass & semiconductors • Australian-based company in
Slide 25: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX:NYSE)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX:NYSE) Sector Base & Battery Metals Copper consumption by vehicle type and powertrain, kt ICE - Passenger vehicles ICE - Commerical vehicles Position Type Fundamental Ebus and E2W base Hybrid For personal use only Theme Green Policy Driven Demand Charging infrastructure EV - Com
Slide 26: Glencore (GLEN:LON)
Glencore (GLEN:LON) Sector Base & Battery Metals Net debt a Position Type Fundamental 17.6 19.7 ($ billion) For personal use only Theme Green Policy Driven Demand 16.3 15.8 16 Temporary cap for • A leading producer of future facing commodities M&A opportunities • Highly cash generative coal business
Slide 27: Why buy TGF?
Why buy TGF? TGF Net Exposure Weights • Fundamentals continue to be favourable heading into 2024! For personal use only Base Metals • TGF provides both growth and yield to investors Battery Metals • Investors gain access to under-researched, hard-to-access Bulks parts of the market, including carbon
Slide 28: Investor Relations
For personal use only Investor Relations Email: investors@tribecaip.com.au Web: www.tribecaip.com Singapore #16-01 Singapore Land Tower 50 Raffles Place, Singapore 048623 Tel: +65 6320 7711 Sydney Level 23, 1 O’Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 9640 2600 28 September 2023
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