ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q4 2016 Earnings Presentation
37 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Jan 26, 2017
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 4Q16
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 4Q16 26 January 2017 #ORLEN4Q16@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2016 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 2016
Key highlights 2016 EBITDA LIFO: PLN 9,4 bn* Results under the pressure of weaker macro and shutdowns Record-high retail result Value creation Long-term contract with Saudi Aramco for crude oil deliveries Building units of Polyethylene in Litvinov and Metathesis in Płock Strategy for 2017-2021 The W
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2016 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 4Q16 (y/y)
Macro environment in 4Q16 (y/y) Comparable level of downstream margin Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ (y/y) 0,0 USD/bbl Diesel 85 66 87 2% 12,0 11,7 12,2 12,0 Gasoline 140 125 131 -6% 11,0 HHO -147 -119 -110
Slide 6: Diesel consumption increase (y/y)
Diesel consumption increase (y/y) GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 4Q15 1Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 4Q15 4Q16 4Q15 4Q16 + 24% 4,3 + 6% 3,0 3,1 2,5 2,4÷3,0 3,68 2,97 0,96 1,01 Poland + 2% - 2% 3,1 9,61 9,78 2,1 1,5 1,5 1,7÷2,1 4,62 4,53 G
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2016 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 4Q16
Financial results in 4Q16 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 PLN m 12M15 12M16 Revenues: increase by 14% (y/y) due to higher + 14% -10% crude oil price and sales volumes increase 20 087 21 083 22 902 88 336 79 553 Revenues EBITDA LIFO: increase by PLN 0,8 bn (y/y) due to + 0,8 bn + 0,7 bn positive effect of sales volum
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 4Q16 PLN m Positive impact (y/y) of: 440 128 sales volumes increase 2 655 2 363 weakening of PLN against foreign currencies -276 higher fuel and non-fuel margins in retail insurance payment related to Steam Cracker in Litvinov inventory revaluation (NRV) offset by ne
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Good result due to higher sales and one-off’s EBITDA LIFO PLN m Higher throughput by 7% (y/y) mainly due to relaunch of FCC and Steam Cracker installations after unplanned shutdowns 3000 2712 2291 2363 Sales volumes increase by 7% (y/y) 2500 Sales increase (y/y): diesel 13%,
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Higher throughput and sales volumes increase by 7% (y/y) Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % 9 + 7% Refineries 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ (y/y) 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,9 Płock 94% 98% 93% -1 pp 8 7,7 7,6 Unipetrol 72% 48% 90% 18 pp 7,3 7,3 7,2 ORLEN Lietuva 90% 96% 97% 7 pp 7 6,6 6,8 Petr
Slide 12: Downstream Energy projects realisation of industrial cogeneration
Downstream Energy projects realisation of industrial cogeneration Construction of CCGT Włocławek 4Q16 - the shutdown phase connected with the elimination of diagnosed defects The elements of the steam turbine were repaired and balanced The installation works due to the repairment of the steam turbin
Slide 13: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Record-high result in 4Q EBITDA LIFO PLN m Sales increase by 1% (y/y) 700 619 Market share increase in the Czech Republic (y/y) 600 539 500 441 441 440 Fuel margin increase in Polish and German markets at 359 379 369 lower margins in Czech and Lithuanian markets (y/y) 400 349 28
Slide 14: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Increase of sales, fuel margins and non-fuel margins (y/y) Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % 2,5 + 1% 2,2 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,5 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Number of Stop Cafe and Stop Cafe Bistro i
Slide 15: Upstream Exploration and production projects in Poland
Upstream Exploration and production projects in Poland Poland 4Q16 Start of acquisition of 2D seismic data, continuation of the acquisition of 3D seismic data and conduction of the production tests on exploration well on Bieszczady project Production launch of new exploration well within the coopera
Slide 16: Upstream Production projects in Canada
Upstream Production projects in Canada Canada 4Q16 Start of commercial operation of the gas processing installation owned in 100% by ORLEN Upstream in the Ferrier/Strachan area with the production capacity 1,1 mln m3 of reservoir fluid per day, which may allow to process of 6,5 th. boe/d Started dri
Slide 17: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2016 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 17
Slide 18: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 0,5 2,7 2,5 -0,4 -0,3 0,4 -0,8 -1,2 EBITDA LIFO effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX CAPEX liabilities Net outflow LIFO increase from 4Q16 change and others* from 4Q16 operations investments 4Q16 4Q16 Working capi
Slide 19: Debt
Debt Safe level of debt and financial gearing Net debt and gearing Net debt/EBITDA LIFO PLN bn, % Financial gearing 3,5 28,1 3,0 22,4 2,5 19,8 18,3 2,0 1,76 1,51 1,5 1,29 6,8 11,5 5,5 5,1 5,0 1,0 0,73 0,53 0,59 3,4 0,35 0,5 0,0 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Diversified
Slide 20: CAPEX
CAPEX Planned CAPEX in 2016* Realized CAPEX in 12M16* – split by segment PLN bn, % PLN bn 0,5 0,1 4,1* 4,8* 0,5 Retail 3,0 Downstream 64% 5,8 10% Growth 3,3 5,1 Energy 1,1 26% Petrochemicals 1,0 Maintanance Upstream 0,9 1,5 Refining and regulatory CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream Corporate CAPEX 201
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2016 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 21
Slide 22: PKN ORLEN outlook in 2017
PKN ORLEN outlook in 2017 Main development projects CAPEX PLN bn Construction of Polyethylene Installation in Czech 5,5 Republic Construction of CCGT in Płock Downstream 2,1 5,8 Construction of Metathesis Installation in Płock 5,1 Retail 0,4 Development 3,3 Upstream 0,8 Construction of new petrol st
Slide 23: Market outlook in 2017
Market outlook in 2017 Macroeconomic environment Brent crude oil price – increase of price vs. the average for 2016 due to higher consumption and arrangements of the main producers regarding restrictions of supply. Downstream margin – decrease in margin vs. the average for 2016 due to drop in margin
Slide 24: Thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl www.orlen.pl
Slide 25: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 25 25
Slide 26: Results – split by quarter
Results – split by quarter PLN m 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ (y/y) 12M15 12M16 ∆ Revenues 20 087 21 083 22 902 14% 88 336 79 553 -10% EBITDA LIFO* 1 866 2 226 2 655 42% 8 738 9 412 8% LIFO effect -1 108 87 526 - -1 510 85 - EBITDA* 758 2 313 3 181 320% 7 228 9 497 31% Depreciation -510 -537 -550 -8% -1 895 -2
Slide 27: Results – split by segment
Results – split by segment 4Q16 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream TOTAL PLN m functions EBITDA LIFO 2 363 440 128 -276 2 655 LIFO effect 526 - - - 526 EBITDA 2 889 440 128 -276 3 181 Depretiation -353 -97 -73 -27 -550 EBIT 2 536 343 55 -303 2 631 EBIT LIFO 2 010 343 55 -303 2 105 4Q15 Corporate D
Slide 28: EBITDA LIFO – split by segment
EBITDA LIFO – split by segment PLN m 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ (y/y) 12M15 12M16 ∆ Downstream 1 656 1 698 2 363 43% 7 776 8 107 4% Retail 369 619 440 19% 1 539 1 801 17% Upstream 7 58 128 1729% 44 255 480% Corporate functions -166 -149 -276 -66% -621 -751 -21% EBITDA LIFO* 1 866 2 226 2 655 42% 8 738 9 412 8
Slide 29: Results - split by company
Results - split by company Others and 4Q16 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 16 309 4 289 4 530 -2 226 22 902 EBITDA LIFO 1 341 545 313 456 2 655 LIFO effect 1) 405 89 23 9 526 EBITDA 1 746 634 336 465 3 181 Depreciation -295 -93 -15 -147 -55
Slide 30: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ y/y 12M15 12M16 ∆ Revenues 953 949 1 113 17% 4 138 3 607 -13% EBITDA LIFO 20 48 77 285% 289 279 -3% EBITDA 25 31 83 232% 295 258 -13% EBIT 21 28 79 276% 284 244 -14% Net result 43 14 95 121% 237 238 0% Sales increase in 4Q16 by 5% (y/y) due to higher seabor
Slide 31: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ y/y 12M15 12M16 ∆ Revenues 22 956 23 110 26 466 15% 108 907 87 813 -19% EBITDA LIFO 824 1 936 3 312 302% 11 604 10 186 -12% EBITDA 725 1 398 3 853 431% 11 368 10 077 -11% EBIT 279 918 3 282 1076% 9 515 8 121 -15% Net result 206 739 4 185 1932% 7 706 8 037 4% Sa
Slide 32: Macro environment in 1Q17
Macro environment in 1Q17 Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17* ∆ Q/Q ∆ Y/Y -0,4 USD/bbl Diesel 60 87 75 -14% 25% 12,0 11,7 12,2 12,0 Gasoline 143 131 138 5% -3% 11,0 11,3 HHO -122 -110 -
Slide 33: Macro environment in 1Q17
Macro environment in 1Q17 Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Petrochemical margin decrease Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin - 0,8 USD/bbl - 147 EUR/t 8,2 8,6 8,0 8,0 998 982 7,2 960 957 2,6 6,7 2,2 906 2,7 2,7
Slide 34: Production data
Production data 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 ∆ (y/y) ∆ (q/q) 12M15 12M16 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN 7 776 7 532 8 308 7% 10% 30 908 30 147 -2% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 88% 86% 94% 6 pp 8 pp 90% 86% -4 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (kt) 3 843 4 003 3 799 -1% -5% 15 674 15 130 -3% Utilizati
Slide 35: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 36: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 37: For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl www.orlen.pl