National Australia Bank Limited · ASX:NAB
National Australia Bank — NAB July Business Insights Webinar (July 2024)
19 slides from National Australia Bank's conference presentation, Jul 25, 2024
Slide 1: Markets and Macro Update
Markets and Macro Update Sally Auld | Chief Economist, NAB
Slide 2: Some facts on Australian trade with the US
Some facts on Australian trade with the US • From a product view beef is our largest export to the US: • The US accounts for 23% of our beef exports, 39% go to Japan, 14% go to Korea and 24% to the rest of the world • Australia is a much smaller beef producer than the US, but US producers focus on h
Slide 3: Tariff rate up, global growth down
Tariff rate up, global growth down The effective tariff rate is likely to settle higher than most had anticipated 3
Slide 4: A new regime
A new regime A framework to think about Trump 2.0 Out In • Secular multi-decade decline in interest rates • Economic security and national interest subordinates foreign policy, increased use of “Economic Statecraft” : • Boost to valuations in other asset classes (equities, property infrastructure) ✓
Slide 5: Targeting AUD/USD to 0.70 by year-end
Targeting AUD/USD to 0.70 by year-end Real rate differentials should work in favour of the AUD AUD/USD in a gentle uptrend 5
Slide 6: Consumption growth is picking up
Consumption growth is picking up But not as robustly as the RBA had earlier expected 6
Slide 7: The RBA need a relatively quick return to a neutral policy setting
The RBA need a relatively quick return to a neutral policy setting AUS real cash rate is elevated RBA forecast (%) Source: RBA, ABS and NAB. 7
Slide 8: Inflation outlook
Inflation outlook Underlying inflation expected to stabilise near target 8
Slide 9: Labour market and activity outlook
Labour market and activity outlook Downside risk to the RBA’s GDP growth expectation this year 9
Slide 10: Labour market outlook
Labour market outlook A peak of 4.4%, before settling at 4.25% Unemployment rate forecasts 10
Slide 11: Labour market indicators
Labour market indicators Wages pressures have cooled and job-finding is harder, even though unemployment is low 11
Slide 12: Population growth surged, but now normalising
Population growth surged, but now normalising Has been masking the adjustment in spending per person 12
Slide 13: The pandemic rearranged population
The pandemic rearranged population Melbourne is much smaller, WA, QLD, SA much bigger 13
Slide 14: Business conditions picked up in June
Business conditions picked up in June Business conditions popped above average in June ⚫ Costs have been passed on 14
Slide 15: In summary
In summary Australian and global outlook Australia Global • GDP growth in 2025 will be better than 2024, at • 2025 likely to be another year of sub-trend growth 1.7% for the global economy • However, this is still sub-trend growth and will • Uncertainty remains the key theme across the likely see th
Slide 16: Insights and resources
Insights and resources Data and insights to help move your business forward Business, Subscribe to Global NAB Morning Research & Markets Research Call podcast Insights website • 15 mins daily update from • nab.com.au/insights • Search NAB Global our expert market Markets Research to economists on ma
Slide 17: Disclaimer
Disclaimer General Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research author(s) from the Markets Research Division on behalf of National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("National Australia Bank Limited" or "NAB") its related companies, and associated entities. Any Investm
Slide 18: Disclaimer
Disclaimer NAB Group sales persons, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the Investment Recommendations or views expressed in this Report. Research au
Slide 19: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The NAB Group and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees will from time to time take various positions and/or roles in relation to financial instruments or financial products and services, and (subject to NAB Group policies) may hold or look to hold a position or act as a pric
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