Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Corporate Update (June 2023)
50 slides from Xcel Energy's corporate update, Jun 13, 2023
Slide 1: Southwestern Public Service Company 2023 New Mexico Integrated Resource Plan
SOUTHWESTERN PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY 2023 NEW MEXICO INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 1st In-Person Facilitated Stakeholder Meeting June 13 – 14, 2023 – Roswell, New Mexico © 2023 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 2: System Overview Recap
SYSTEM OVERVIEW RECAP © 2023 Xcel Energy 2
Slide 3: Current Summer SPS Loads and Resources Table - Planning Load
Current Summer SPS Loads and Resources Table - Planning Load LINE NO. DESCRIPTION 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5,418 5,411 5,158 4,918 4,472 3,178 3,170 1 TOTAL ACCREDITED CAPACITY (MW) 4,332 4,580 4,680 4,735 4,881 4,898 5,032 2 FIRM LOAD OBLIGATION 650 687 702 710 732 735 755 3 TOTAL PLANNIN
Slide 4: Existing Generation
Existing Generation Updated slide to include 2024 2024 Capacity Overview by Resource Type Maximum Accredited Resource Capability Capacity Type (MW) (MW) Coal 1,067 1,067 Coal to Gas 1,018 1,018 Gas – 1,427 1,427 Steam Gas – CT 822 822 Gas – CC 558 558 Wind 2,451 447 Solar 190 78* To
Slide 5: Existing SPS Generating Resources
By request Existing SPS Generating Resources Maximum Retirement / Maximum Retirement Plant Name Fuel COD Year Plant Name Type COD Year Capability Expire Capability / Expire Cunningham 2 Gas ST 183 1965 2025 Caprock Wind 80 2004 2024 Maddox 2 Gas CT 61 1976 2025 San Juan Wind 120 2005 2025 Blackhawk
Slide 6: New Mexico Load vs. Current Resources Balance - Planning Forecast
New Mexico Load vs. Current Resources Balance - Planning Forecast (1),(2) MW 8,000 Load and Resource Balances by Year 7,000 6,000 5,000 < 2.6 GW accredited capacity 4,000 needed by 2030 3,000 Impact of Generator Retirements 2,000 1,000 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 20
Slide 7: 2021 Action Plan Update
2021 ACTION PLAN UPDATE © 2023 Xcel Energy 7
Slide 8: 2021 IRP – Action Plan Update
2021 IRP – ACTION PLAN UPDATE SPS’s initial 2021 IRP action plan did not identify the need for any new generating resources However, SPS supplemented the action plan to incorporate the following changes: Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act Increase in planning reserve margin requirement f
Slide 9: 2022 RFP Bid Selection
2022 RFP Bid Selection Bidder Project Tech Size(MW) COD SPS Plant X1-2 Solar 150 4/1//2026 Solar SPS Cunningham1 Solar 72 4/1/2026 Solar SPS Cunningham 2 Solar 196 4/1/2027 Solar Contour Blackhawk Thermal 230 Existing Global Station Recommend portfolio will more than triple the size of SPS’s solar f
Slide 10: Load vs. Current and Recommended Future Resources Balance
Load vs. Current and Recommended Future Resources Balance(1) MW 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 20% Less Firm Capacity 4,000 Needed by 2030 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 Coal Natural Gas (CC) Natural Gas (CT) Wind Sola
Slide 11: 2023 IRP - Modeling Approach
2023 IRP - MODELING APPROACH © 2023 Xcel Energy 11
Slide 12: Determining the cost of resource portfolios
Determining the cost of resource portfolios • SPS uses the EnCompass production cost model to determine the most cost- effective portfolio(s) of resources to meet projected future energy demand • Resource Portfolios must meet predetermined reliability and clean energy requirements (e.g., planning re
Slide 13: Load vs. Current and Recommended Future Resources Balance
Load vs. Current and Recommended Future Resources Balance MW 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term Planning Horizon Planning Planning Horizon Horizon (Acti
Slide 14: Multi-Jurisdictional Utilities
Multi-Jurisdictional Utilities Information Only 17.7.3.8 D: A multi-jurisdictional utility shall include in its IRP a description of its resource planning requirements in the other state(s) where it operates, and a description of how it is coordinating the IRP with its out-of-state resource planning
Slide 15: SPS – Modeling Hierarchy
SPS – Modeling Hierarchy SPS will evaluate the following sensitivities for Multi- Outside IRP Jurisdictional Level 0 each of its level 3 analysis: Baseline Scope Load NM IRP Base • Base Load (50% percentile) Case Level 1 • High Load (85% percentile) • Electrification & Emerging Technologies Existing
Slide 16: SPS – Modeling Hierarchy: Resource Adequacy Requirements
SPS – Modeling Hierarchy Multi- Outside IRP Jurisdictional Level 0 Existing Resource Adequacy Requirements Baseline Scope Modeling will include the Southwest Power Pool’s existing 15% planning reserve margin in NM IRP Base Case Level 1 all months Increased Resource Adequacy Existing RA Increased RA
Slide 17: SPS – Modeling Hierarchy: Technology
SPS – Modeling Hierarchy Multi- Outside IRP Jurisdictional Level 0 Existing Technology Baseline Scope Modeling will not include any new gas generation. The only new supply-side NM IRP Base Case Level 1 generating resources available for selection will be solar, wind, and 4-, 6-, and 8-hour lithium-
Slide 18: SPS – Modeling Hierarchy: Transmission Network Upgrades
SPS – Modeling Hierarchy Transmission Network Upgrades – The following Transmission generation will not incur any network upgrade costs: Load Gas & Market Network Upgrades • 1,100 MW of accredited capacity interconnected at Tolk (generator replacement) • 1,000 MW of wind and/or solar at Harrington B
Slide 19: Stakeholder Modeling Requests
Stakeholder Modeling Requests Multi- Outside IRP Jurisdictional Level 0 Baseline Scope Identify Level 2 Analysis NM IRP Base Case Level 1 Identify Level 3 Existing RA Increased RA Level 2 Analysis Requirements Requirements Within IRP Existing Existing Scope Identify Sensitivity Technology Technology
Slide 20: Modeling Timeline
Modeling Timeline 8/1 - 8/2 6/13 - 6/14 7/6 Meeting Meeting 9/21 Meeting Meeting WG propose First Modeling Modeling 10/15 Working Modeling Runs Review / WG Concluded – IRP Filed Groups ("WG") to SPS (Round propose Final Modeling Organized 1) Modeling Review (Round 2) Production Cost Modeling is a ti
Slide 21: Appendix
APPENDIX © 2023 Xcel Energy 21
Slide 22: © 2023 Xcel Energy
© 2023 Xcel Energy 22
Slide 23: IRP Presentation - SPP
IRP PRESENTATION - SPP Jarred Cooley – Director, Strategic Planning IRP Stakeholder meeting – Roswell, NM June 14, 2023 ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 24: Topics to Cover
TOPICS TO COVER • Discuss SPP • Resource Adequacy efforts at SPP • Considerations as part of the IRP ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
Slide 25: What is the Southwest Power Pool?
What is the Southwest Power Pool? The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) is: • A 501(c)(6) nonprofit corporation, based in Little Rock, AR • FERC approved Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) since 2004 • 114 members, diverse membership • Stakeholder driven • Integrated Marketplace – Day ahead and real time
Slide 26: ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy 4
Slide 27: ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy 5
Slide 28: Benefits of being part of SPP
Benefits of being part of SPP • Access to larger pool of generation resources – low cost energy • Decrease generation reserves • Collaborative Transmission Planning • Generation Interconnection Queue • Load interconnection requests • Outage coordination • Cost Allocation • Training Opportunities • C
Slide 29: SPP Generation Interconnection Queue
SPP Generation Interconnection Queue Definitive Interconnection System Impact Study (DISIS) • Current Queue – 561 projects, 111.5 GW • 7 cluster studies currently in progress • DISIS-2023-001 window will remain open Studies consist of three phases (outlined in Attachment V of the SPP OATT) • Phase 1
Slide 30: What SPP does not do
What SPP does not do SPP does not do: • Transmission – Siting, Construction, or Permitting • Generation – Planning, Siting, Construction, or Permitting • All the NERC and FERC compliance activities • Planning for transmission facilities below 100 kV ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 X
Slide 31: Resource Adequacy and Impacts to IRP
RESOURCE ADEQUACY AND IMPACTS TO IRP ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
Slide 32: Resource Adequacy at SPP
Resource Adequacy at SPP Widely viewed as the most critical topic at SPP currently SPP Open Access Transmission Tariff and bylaws gives authority on Resource Adequacy methodology to the Regional State Committee (RSC) • RSC is comprised of one Commissioner per state in SPP’s footprint (14) − Chair O’
Slide 33: Resource Adequacy at SPP
Resource Adequacy at SPP Multiple groups (mix of stakeholders and regulators) have direct input to the RSC and BOD: • Supply Adequacy Working Group • Cost Allocation Working Group • Improved Resource Availability Task Force • Created following Winter Storm Uri, likely going away by end of the year •
Slide 34: Reliability focus - IRATF
Reliability focus - IRATF Following Winter Storm Uri – SPP • Inertia – looking at market solution • Primary frequency response – looking at market solution • Ramp – looking at assignment to load serving entities • Flexibility • Fuel assurance © 2022 Xcel Energy 12
Slide 35: REAL Task Prioritization
REAL TASK PRIORITIZATION IN-PERSON SESSION Market Mechanisms Value of Loss Load Review SIRs Fuel Assurance Ramp Flexibility ¢ Incremental Load on RA * RA Methodology/Tools 3 f1)559* LRE RA Policies * EUE Methodologies RA Accreditation Policy Adjustments RA Seasonal Application Construct NOVEMBER 4 F
Slide 36: What has happened thus far (2022-2023) – Key Items
What has happened thus far (2022-2023) – Key Items SPP RSC and/or BOD have: • Approved change in PRM from 12% to 15% for Summer 2023 • Approved Planning Based Accreditation for conventional units (FERC filing late 2023) • Approved Sufficiency value curve (FERC approved) • Approved language for non-t
Slide 37: Planning Reserve Margin
Planning Reserve Margin Currently have a Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) of 15% - Set forth by SPP • Was approved to be moved from 12% to 15% July of 2022 − Implementation is Summer 2023 − This is a minimum requirement to meet • Value driven by the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) study • Failure to me
Slide 38: ELCC and PBA
ELCC and PBA Effective Load Carry Capability (ELCC) • Applies to renewables Performance Based Accreditation (PBA) • Applies to conventional resources SPP and stakeholders working on finalizing ELCC and PBA for RSC and SPP BOD approvals Oct 2023 ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel E
Slide 39: What is coming up at SPP (not firm dates)
What is coming up at SPP (not firm dates): • Winter PRM (Part 1): create a winter PRM for 2023-2024 at 15% (mirror summer’s PRM) • Expected SPP approvals - July 2023 • Winter PRM (Part 2): create a stand-alone winter PRM for 2025-2026 (separate from summer) • Expected SPP approvals - January 2024 •
Slide 40: Additional Items at SPP
Additional Items at SPP Expected SPP approvals – October 2023 • Ramping requirements for Summer 2026 • Strengthen firm fuel requirements • Demand Response policies related to capacity accreditation for interruptible load Expected SPP Approvals - 2024 • Improve generation maintenance and outage polic
Slide 41: Considerations to include in IRP modeling
Considerations to include in IRP modeling: • ELCC and PBA implementation by SPP • Upcoming changes to implement at Winter PRM by SPP • Upcoming changes to implement an increased Summer PRM by SPP • Changes to how demand response resources are accredited by SPP Other item – Reliability • Ramping, ine
Slide 42: Questions?
QUESTIONS? ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
Slide 43: ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy 21
Slide 44: Appendix
APPENDIX ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL © 2022 Xcel Energy
Slide 45: IRATF staff recommendations
© ODD sousiwos STAFF recommends the IRATF: Power Pool Approve the recommendations summarized below: Inertia: MWG to design and implement changes to the Market logic to ensure SPP BAA is operating with adequate Inertia response. MG to determine the Market product needed to ensure adequate headroom fo
Slide 46: Western Services (Not Applicable to SPS)
Western Services (Not Applicable to SPS) • Markets+ • Currently in Development, Phase 2 in progress • RTO West • 6 utilities currently investigating • Western Reliability Coordinator • Western Energy Imbalance Services Market (WEIS) − Launched 2021 – real time market, buy and sell energy • Western R
Slide 47: Sales and Demand Forecast Overview
Sales and Demand Forecast Overview • Xcel Energy’s Sales, Energy, and Demand forecasting team creates multi-year forecasts of class-level customer counts and sales by state and system-level energy and peak demands − Forecasts are key inputs to many planning processes, including the Integrated Resour
Slide 48: Inputs and Key Drivers
Inputs and Key Drivers • Key inputs to the models include: − Historical sales, customer counts, and weather − Historical economic trends – drivers include housing stock, population, personal income, employment, state/metro gross product and oil production • Key forecast drivers include: − Forecasted
Slide 49: Sales and Peak Trends
Sales and Peak Trends • Retail sales growth has accelerated since 2017, even • Retail peak growth has also accelerated since 2017 with a pandemic related decline in 2020 • Growth expected to continue with economic growth • Driven primarily by expansion of the oil and gas and the addition of new, lar
Slide 50: Sales Trends by State
Sales Trends by State • TX sales flat before a pandemic related decline in • NM sales have shown strong growth since 2017 2020 • Driven primarily by increases in sales to the oil and • Customer requests from high usage/high load factor gas sector industries expected to drive stronger growth in TX •