Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (June 2016)
82 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, June 2016
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors Jun 2016
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance Policy
-4- Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders The board of directors, management • Truthfully report company’s situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends to all stakeholders equally principles, equitable treatment to all
Slide 5: Thaioil Group Sustainable Development
-5- Thaioil Group Sustainable Development 3 consecutive years for • Member of DJSI Emerging Markets • Highest Ranked Level in RobecoSAM Gold Class of Global Oil & Gas Companies & 2 consecutive years for • No.1 in ENERGY industry around the WORLD (Industry Group Leader) • No.1 in Oil & Gas Producers
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP Group Business Overview
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 11.2% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major 17.3% shareholder and key 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length 22.5% and in adherence with PTT strong corporate 49.1%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 3
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUELGAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 JET KMT-2 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Thai Lube Base HVU-2 HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2 10,400
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,252 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share 33% 30% Nameplate Capacity market market Fang (3 kbpd) shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q1/16 Q4/15 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and VIETNAM Indochina Bangkok Sri
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
-15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 1% SAUDI 1 LPG Others *** 7% 5% API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API = 39.4 API
Slide 16: Strong Domestic Sales despite Flatten Local Demand
-16- Strong Domestic Sales despite Flatten Local Demand TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate AEC Oil Demand Growth Unit: % Utilization Rate Unit: % Demand Growth YoY 110% 8.9% 107%107% 108% 110% 106% 107% 102% 98% 6.5% 5.7% 5.0% 3.8% 90% 94% 95% 94% 95% 92% 94% 91% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 85% 2.4% 1.9% 70
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross margin and overall performance range and come up with comp
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- Key Financial Highlights
Slide 20: Q1/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- Q1/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Implication Soften MKT GRM pressured by 1.) lower middle Soften Mkt GRM at 6.1 distillate spread as abundant supply amid weak $/bbl (Q4/15 = 8.5 $/bbl) demand during mild winter 2.) higher crude premium Weaken Dubai particularly in
Slide 21: Q1/16 Key Events / Achievements
Key Highlights -21- Q1/16 Key Events / Achievements Key Events / Achievements Q1/16 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB) High Refinery run at 107% & optimized Net Operating Profit (before tax) Stock G/(L) (before tax) run for Aromatic & Lube Base at 80% and Reversal of NRV/(NRV) (before ta
Slide 22: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-22- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) 7.8 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3
Slide 23: Financial Performance
Financial -23- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 446,241 399,125 414,575 390,090 31,099 318,391 28,760 293,569 23,868 22,808 22,337 25,492 284,123 22,897 20,350 21,393 17,381 19,713 19,541 14
Slide 24: Q1/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -24- Q1/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 16 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 192,166 202,684 74,915 million THB 15,981 million THB Cash & ST (US$ 2,116 million (US$ 451 mi
Slide 25: 2015 Dividend Payment
Financial -25- 2015 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 9.40 9.19 1H dividend Year Dividend 7.82 8.13 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.39 4.57 2.75 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.5
Slide 26: Strategic Investment Plans
-26- Strategic Investment Plans
Slide 27: Way Forward: Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out, Pursuing Sustainability
Way Forward -27- Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability Vision A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific END Vision Top quartile Top Qrt ROIC & DJSI Measurement performer NP Growth (Sustainability) by 2021 • Operational excellence • Complet
Slide 28: Thaioil Group Investment Matrix
-28- Thaioil Group Investment Matrix New Geography Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia Integrated Downstream (B2B, B2C/retail, logistics, trading) New Business AEC (Technology driven) Specialties Core Business Growth Integrated Refinery Solvent, Marine, Power, Ethanol Thailand Refinery Downstream
Slide 29: Strategic Investment Plan: Updated CAPEX Plan
Updated CAPEX plan -29- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Projects COD Total Project Cost Our CAPEX (2011-2018) 2015 2016 2017 2018 investments will Reliability, efficiency and flexibility 2013-2018 353 21 60 5 4 cover improvements improvement in pl
Slide 30: Key Project Progress Update: LAB
Project Update -30- Key Project Progress Update : LAB Project Detail / Progress • TPX JV with Mitsui (75% : 25%) • Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher valued product; LAB Linear Alkyl which is an intermediate feedstock in production of surfactant (detergent) Benzene (LAB) • CAPEX = 400
Slide 31: Key Project Progress Update: 2 SPPs
Project Update -31- Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs Project Detail / Progress • Low risk power business enhance income stability & Support reliability of electricity & steam supply for TOP Group TOP SPP (2 blocks of SPP) • Successfully COD both 2 blocks of SPP • 1st block (124MW) on 1 Apr 2016
Slide 32: Key Project Progress Update: SPPs Business Model
Ongoing Project Update -32- Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs Business Model 90 MW 90 MW Block 1 * Capacity : 124 MW 8 MW COD : April 2016 Natural Gas 28 MW Block 2 Capacity : 115 MW * 6 MW COD : June 2016 Steam 498 T/H * Internally-used electricity for 2 blocks = 6 MW Steam Expected EBITDA Elect
Slide 33: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)
Project Update -33- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP
Slide 34: 2H-16 & 2016 Market Outlook
-34- 2H-16 & 2016 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • LAB
Slide 35: Crude Oil
-35- CRUDE OIL
Slide 36: 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -36- 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF IMF estimated the 2016’s Global GDP growth at 3.2% Growth (%YoY) China US EU World 2015 2016 2017 12 Apr-16(1) Jan-16(2) Apr-16(1) Jan-16(2) Apr-16(1) 10 USA 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 8 EU 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 5.4 6 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.4
Slide 37: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -37- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasted 2016’s global oil demand to increase by 1.2 MBD mainly from Asia Demand Growth IEA (MBD) (MBD) 9 .9 .9 5 9 .7 . The global oil demand will grow by 1.2 MBD in 2016 95.9 . Source: IEA, Oil Market Report Apr 2016
Slide 38: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -38- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated 2016’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth to contract by 700 KBD Remarks: Regional Non-OPEC Supply excl. Biofuels/Processing G/(L) Non OPEC Growth IEA Supply (MBD) (MBD) As lower prices and reduced spending take their toll, n
Slide 39: Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk
Refinery -39- Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk Dubai Price Movement $/BBL Declining US Greek Debt China’s Stock OPEC failed to No consensus Oil Rigs Default Market Crash agree on an Fed Rate on output 80 Hike output ceiling freeze 60 1 2 40 Conflict Iran’s Nuclear 20 in Yemen
Slide 40: Strong Buying Interest On Expectations of Tighter Supply in 2H-16
Refinery -40- Strong Buying Interest 1 On Expectations of Tighter Supply in 2H-16 A U.S. Shale Oil Output Sets to Decline B U.S. Crude Stocks Expected to Draw in 2H-16 U.S. Shale Oil Production by Field MBBL U.S. Commercial Crude Inventory MBD - 0.4 MBD YoY 550 6 in 2016 5 4 450 3 2 350 1 Q2: Summer
Slide 41: Full Price Recovery is Still At Risk, Limited By Ample Supply
Refinery -41- Full Price Recovery is Still At Risk, 2 Limited By Ample Supply A OPEC to Continue Defending Market Share B Faster-than-Expected Return of Iranian Oil Record-High OPEC Production Iran’s Oil Production MBD Output freeze OPEC failed to MBD International deal failed 34 agree on quota Sanc
Slide 42: Petroleum Products
-42- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 43: Steady Refinery Margin in 2H-16 on Recovered Middle Distillate Cracks
Refinery -43- Steady Refinery Margin in 2H-16 on Recovered Middle Distillate Cracks Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 7.9 8.0 7.6 7.7 5.8 6.3 5.8 6.1 4.8 5.3 4.9 Y2014 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Y2015 1Q16 2Q16TD 2016 Actual Forecast Sources: Reuters, TOP’s estimate ($/BBL) Q4-15 2015
Slide 44: Stable Gasoline Cracks on Summer Demand
Refinery -44- 1 Stable Gasoline Cracks on Summer Demand A Softer Gasoline now on Pre-Building Stocks C US Market to Support by Driving Demand ARA and Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL US Gasoline Demand MBD 30 Refiners have built up Gasoline Y2016 : +167 KBD (+1.8%) 10.0 stocks since Jan’16 for summer
Slide 45: Middle Distillate Cracks Hit the Bottom in Q3/16 and Will Recover in Q4/16
Refinery -45- Middle Distillate Cracks Hit the Bottom in Q3/16 2 and Will Recover in Q4/16 on Cold Weather A Surplus on High Refinery Run Rates C 70 percent of La Nina in Q4/16 Asia Pacific Refinery Run Percent of La Nina in the next winter MBD 29.0 Y2016 : +680 KBD (+2.5%) (Nov’15 – Jan’16) followi
Slide 46: Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition
Refinery -46- Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Australia Japan India Other AP Vietnam Net Addition AP & ME Demand KBD 3500 3141 3000 2500 2000 1386 1304 1500 1257 875 1000 518 454 507 479 500 156 282 88 0 -500 -1000 2009 2010 2
Slide 47: Thailand Petroleum Demand Growth
Thailand’s Oil Demand -47- Thailand’s Oil Demand in 2016 Thailand Petroleum Demand Growth Average (B) YTD 3M 2016(B) Year on Year Y 2015 Y 2016(C) 2011-2015(B) (vs. 3M 2015) Mogas (A) +7.1% +13.3% +11.0% +7.1% Jet/Kero +4.4% +9.7% +4.9% +4.4% Diesel (A) +3.4% +4.0% +4.9% +2.2% Fuel Oil -4.5% -1.4% +
Slide 48: Aromatics
-48- AROMATICS
Slide 49: Slightly Softer Aromatics Market on New Capacity in 2H-16
Aromatics -49- Slightly Softer Aromatics Market on New Capacity in 2H-16 Capped by New Derivative Demand Aromatics Market PX-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ-ULG95 ($/TON) 371 332 313 327 279 273 288 268 285 252 255 246 233 256 254 220 207 156 142 98 115 101 97 74 Y2014 Y2015 3Q14 1Q14 2Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Slide 50: Slightly Softer PX Market due to New Capacity and Restart of PX Plant in Asia
Aromatics -50- 1 Slightly Softer PX Market due to New Capacity and Restart of PX Plant in Asia A Delayed Startup of New PX Capacity B Lower PX Plants Turnaround in 2H-16 AP/ME Effective PTA & PX Capacity Addition AP Nameplate PX Capacity Turnaround Mil TON Mil TON 2 5 Reliance Industries No.4 Unplan
Slide 51: AP/ME PX Demand and Capacity Outlook
Aromatics -51- AP/ME PX Demand and Capacity Outlook PX-ULG95 313 545 471 485 279 259 Mil Ton Utilization Rate (%) Forecast 2010-2015 2016-2020 60 100% Dem: 7.1% Dem: 4.0% Cap: 8.2% Cap: 3.8% 50 47 49 49 90% 46 40 42 41 39 41 38 37 35 36 30 33 33 80% 30 31 31 29 30 26 27 20 24 70% 10 0 60% 2010 2012
Slide 52: Slightly Softer BZ Market due to Higher Capacity but Limited by Derivative Demand
Aromatics -52- 2 Slightly Softer BZ Market due to Higher Capacity but Limited by Derivative Demand A New BZ Capacity will Enter to the Market in 2H-16 B Lower BZ Plants Turnaround in 2H-16 AP/ME Effective Derivatives & BZ Capacity Addition Mil TON AP Nameplate BZ Capacity Turnaround Mil TON 2 5 Show
Slide 53: AP/ME BZ Demand and Capacity Outlook
Aromatics -53- AP/ME BZ Demand and Capacity Outlook BZ-ULG95 165 87 157 288 268 100 Forecast Utilization Rate (%) Mil Ton 2010-2015 2016-2020 60 Dem: 4.7% Dem: 3.8% 90% Cap: 5.0% Cap: 2.2% 50 40 42 80% 40 41 38 39 37 38 34 30 33 33 31 30 28 29 26 27 25 25 20 22 23 24 70% 22 10 0 60% 2010 2012 2014 2
Slide 54: Base Oil & Bitumen
-54- BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 55: Soft Base Oil Spread in 2H-16 due to Weak Demand amid Additional Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Soft Base Oil Spread in 2H-16 due to Weak Demand amid Additional Supply Base Oil Benchmark Spread ($/TON) 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity Million TON 8.0 495 486 501 500 493 506 450 431 427 398 369 399 6.0 4.8 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q
Slide 56: Soft Base Oil Spread in 2H 2016 due to Weak Demand amid Addition Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Soft Base Oil Spread in 2H 2016 due to Weak Demand amid Addition Supply A Net Announced Capacity Addition Period Type Company Location Group Capacity 2016: Capacity grows at normal rate Million TON 1Q-16 New Sinopec Maoming China Gr.II 250 Peak Capacity 8.0 1Q-16 Closure Shan
Slide 57: Lower Bitumen Spread in 2H-16 on Lull Seasonal Demand amid High Inventories
Base Oil & Bitumen -57- Lower Bitumen Spread in 2H-16 on Lull Seasonal Demand amid High Inventories Bitumen Market Bitumen Benchmark Spread ($/TON) Average Import Volume of Major KTON/MONTH Asian Players 85 98 82 56 500 23 20 400 -7 300 -32 -46 -69 -77 -66 200 100 2016 2Q16TD Y2014 Y2015 1Q14 2Q14 3
Slide 58: LAB
-58- LAB
Slide 59: Steady LAB Spread in 2H-16 on Stable LAB market
LAB -59- Steady LAB Spread in 2H-16 on Stable LAB market LAB Market LAB - BZ ($/TON) South East Asia LAB Demand and Supply KTA 655 500 549 591 557 582 544 569 532 504 505 513 524 400 300 200 100 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 4Q14 1Q16 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2Q16TD 0 2014 2015 2016 LAB-BZ Forecast De
Slide 60: Conclusion
-60- CONCLUSION
Slide 61: 2H-16 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -61- 2H-16 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H-16) Refinery Steady Refinery Margin on higher Middle Distillate Cracks Slightly softer Aromatics market on new capacity Aromatics capped by new derivative demand Soft Base oil spread on new Gr.II Base Oil plants Lube Base Soft Bitumen spread pr
Slide 62: Appendix
-62- APPENDIX • Q1/16 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 63: Thailand Leading Refinery: Superior Utilization/Commercial
Refining -63- Thailand Leading Refinery : Superior Utilization/ Commercial Total Thailand Crude Refining Capacity 1,252 kbd1 TOP’s Refinery Utilization vs. Industry4 Thai Oil 22% Share Fang Nameplate Capacity TOP Refinery Overall Industry (Thailand) (3 kbd) Thai Oil (275 kbd) 110% 107% 106% PTT’s Pr
Slide 64: Q1/16: Soften GRM Pressured by Declined Middle Distillate
Refining -64- Q1/16: Soften GRM Pressured by Declined Middle Distillate Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q4/15 Q1/15 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY15 107% 110% 106% DUBAI (DB) 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 30.4 42.7 50.9 % MB Intake/OSP* ULG95 - DB 15.
Slide 65: Q1/16: Higher Margins Supported by Supply Outages
Aromatics -65- Q1/16: Higher Margins Supported by Supply Outages Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q4/15 Q1/15 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY15 80% 85% 66% PX*-ULG95 255 246 233 288 332 313 256 Market Highlight BZ-ULG95 98 115 74 101 156 142 97 + Improved PX/BZ m
Slide 66: Q1/16: Lower Base Oil Margins Pressured by Concern on New Supply
Lube Base Oil -66- Q1/16: Lower Base Oil Margins Pressured by Concern on New Supply Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q4/15 Q1/15 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY15 88% 90% 79% 500SN-HSFO 369 399 506 450 427 398 431 % Base Oil & Specialty Sale Volume BITUMEN-
Slide 67: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -67- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 9.9 12.2 12.8 8.2 7.1 6.1 1.4 Product to Feed Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 FY/15 FY/14 8.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 6.1 7.8 5.7 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 FY/15 FY/14 16.3 21.1 18.0 19.9 19.2 18.9
Slide 68: Q1/16: Performance Breakdown
Performance Breakdown -68- Q1/16: Performance Breakdown Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • TOP: high run to capture domestic market and good GRM ***74% • TPX: optimized run and improved holding contribution from higher spread & lower energy cost • TLB: soften contribu
Slide 69: Q1/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -69- Q1/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q1/16 Q4/15 QoQ+/(-) Q1/15 YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 56,790 68,446 (11,656) 71,366 (14,576) Hedging Gain 27 1,053 (1,026) 76 (49) EBITDA 6,653 6,348 305 6,209 444 EBITDA excl. Stk G/(L) & Reversal of 6,964 10,514 (3,550) 5,210 1,754 NRV/(NRV
Slide 70: Q1/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -70- Q1/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Operating Cash Flow Investments Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Operating Cash Flow 9,763 9,413 Investments (18,725) (7,746) Net income & non-cash adj. 6,378 4,232 + ST investments (16,293) (5,128) CAPEX (PP&E) & o
Slide 71: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures
Refinery -71- Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Start-up Country Nameplate Company period) (KBD) AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand Q1-15 UAE 417 Ruwais Middle East China Q2-15 China 70 Local Rizhao Lanqiao Australia Japan Indi
Slide 72: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -72- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin 93.04% 57.81% 69.84% Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil
Slide 73: Crude Inventory
Inventories -73- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 74: Global Distillate Inventory
Inventories -74- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 75: Fuel Oil Inventory
Inventories -75- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 76: China's Product Export
China Export -76- China’s Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 77: Domestic LPG Demand
-77- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • During Jan-16 and Apr-16, LPG demand fell significantly by 10.7%YoY on account of lower usages in all sectors. Most of the decline came from petrochemical sector which its feedstock switching from LPG to Naphtha leading to 24%YoY dr
Slide 78: Domestic Gasoline Demand
-78- Domestic Gasoline Demand Thailand Gasoline Demand GASOLINE Demand Highlight • In Jan-Apr 2016, Mogas demand jumped sharply by 11.2%YoY to an average 28.59 ML/day. This was mainly due to lower retail prices and higher number of passenger cars since the end of the last year, as a result of avoidi
Slide 79: Domestic Jet Demand
-79- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In Jan-Apr 2016, Jet consumption increased significantly by 5.7% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry. The expansion in tourism sector was a result of increasing number of Chinese and
Slide 80: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
-80- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In first 4 months of 2016, Diesel demand rose gradually by 4.3% YoY as relatively low retail prices boosted the consumption amidst higher number of accumulated commercial vehicles. Nevertheless, demand growth was cu
Slide 81: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
-81- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand FUEL OIL Demand Highlight • During Jan-16 and Apr-16, Fuel Oil consumption jumped rapidly by 15.7%YoY, as a result of sharply increase by 25.9%YoY in transportation demand. Last year, transport activity in Thai fishery was pressured by EU warnin
Slide 82: Thank You
-82- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (June 2016) on 6ix