Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q3 2008 Earnings Presentation
41 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, Nov 18, 2008
Slide 1: Analysts Presentation Q3 & 9M/08 Results
Analysts Presentation Q3 & 9M/08 Results Thai Oil Public Company Limited 18 November 2008
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. 2
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission & Value
Corporate p Vision,, Mission & Value Vision A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be a top performance refinery in Solomon benchmarking • To expand business through organic growth and value chain enhancement Mission • To solidify group income through power
Slide 4: Presentation Outline
Presentation Outline / Q3/08 / & 9M/08 i hli h Highlights Performance Analysis Business Outlook 4
Slide 5: Q3/08 Key Highlights
Q3/08 Key y Highlights g g • TOP Group reported a Market Integrated Margin of 5.7 US$/bbl. Collapsing oil prices due to global financial crisis caused a stock loss of 10.3 US$/bbl and hence a negative Integrated Margin inclusive of stock loss of 4.14 1 US$/bbl for Overall the 3rd quarter. • Together
Slide 6: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights g g Integrated Margins (excl. Stock Gain/Loss) Integrated Margins (incl. Stock Gain/Loss) (Unit: $/bbl) (Unit: $/bbl) 2% 153% 10.0 10.3 7.7 8.1 7.9 5.7 5.7 -4.1 Q3/07 Q3/08 9M/07 9M/08 Q3/07 Q3/08 9M/07 9M/08 Consolidated Net Profit Net Profit Breakdown* (Unit: MB) 45% 9M/07 9M/
Slide 7: Presentation Outline
Presentation Outline / Q3/08 / & 9M/08 i hli h Highlights Performance Analysis Business Outlook 7
Slide 8: Oil Price Movement
Oil Price Movement Crude Oil Prices (US$/bbl) 68.4 107.2 160 55 65 70 83 91 117 113 Dubai 140 120 Dubai 128 100 80 97 96 86 60 40 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 • Global financial crisis and expectation of • Anticipation of widespread demand global recession destruction including key growing • Fund liqu
Slide 9: Product Spreads vs. Dubai
Product Spreads p vs. Dubai (US$/bbl) Act 07 Act 08 ULG95 13.7 12.9 59 5.9 JET 37.4 12.9 20.9 11.6 28.8 22.8 Q1 Q2 Q3 HSFO 16.7 17.5 17.2 Q1 Q2 Q3 -10 7 -10.7 -11 2 -11.2 -10 5 -10.5 -10.9 -16.8 -24.3 37.6 Q1 Q2 Q3 GO 23.0 25.7 LPG (controlled price) -27.4 -36.8 -41.6 14.6 16.5 16.4 Q Q1 Q Q2 Q Q3 -
Slide 10: Gross Refinery Margins
Gross Refinery y Margins g Sources of Crude TOP’s Crude Mix & Product Yield Far East Q3 Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl) 3% 4% 5% LPG -31.4 * 16% LPG Local 13% 15% 19% Gasoline 5.9 9% 17% Gasoline 25% Jet 28.8 12% Jet 84% 52% Middle East 41% Diesel 25.7 45% Diesel 19% FO 11% FO -10.9 10% 9M08 9M/08 9M08
Slide 11: Oil Demand for Q3/2008
Oil Demand for Q3/2008 Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand (KBD) (KBD) 1,400 100% 22% 91% 91% 91% 90% 89% 89% 90% 86% 338 Q1/08 313 1,200 77% 80% Q2/08 1,000 263 Q3/08 800 162 60% 6% 110 120 104 140 155 111 166 182 600 138 125 19% 40% 124 125 120 117 23% 9181 400 738 743 74 724
Slide 12: Aromatics Business
Aromatics Business Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins (US$/Ton) 542 473 395 268 257 317 371 PX-ULG 95 1,600 1,400 PX 1,200 BZ • Spreads of PX and MX 1,000 MX over ULG 95 were widen 800 TL as aromatic prices fell ULG95 slower than ULG95. 600 400 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 • Fundamentally, many TPX’s Pro
Slide 13: Lube Base Business
Lube Base Business Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins(US$/Ton) 1,600 637 538 466 380 434 535 796 500SN-HSFO 1,400 500SN 1,200 1,000 800 Higher base oil margins HSFO 600 due to: 400 Bitumen 200 • Higher g e base o oil p prices ces 0 due to tight supply in Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q3. TLB’s Pr
Slide 14: TOP Group's Integrated Margins
TOP Group’s p Integrated g Margins g 21.4 (US$/bbl) 17.4 16.0 15.9 14.3 16.6 12.1 13.4 6.6 Product to • TOP : Accounting Feed GRM of US$ -6.9/bbl 6.9/bbl Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 9M/07 9M/08 in Q3/08, mainly 9.6 contributed by high (US$/bbl) 7.9 6.3 6.1 5.9 stock loss of 4.7 ude 3.8 4.5 3.4 Market
Slide 15: Performance Breakdown by Company - Q3/08
Performance Breakdown by Company - Q3/08 Refinery Aromatic Lube Base Plant Plant Ship Utilization Production Production Availability y Utilization Utilization (KBD) (Kton/Day) (Kton/Day) 100% Q3/07 100% 94% 96% 93% 90% 97% 99% 95% 91% 88% 75% Q3/08 Q / 0 75 0.75 224 259 2 9 1.05 2.26 0.70 GRM P2F P2
Slide 16: Consolidated Financial Performance
Consolidated Financial Performance 1) (US$/bbl) Q3/07 Q3/08 +/(-) % 9M/07 9M/08 +/(-) % 2) TOP’s GRM 3.8 3.4 (0.4) -11% 6.1 5.9 (0.2) -3% Integrated Margin 2) 5.7 5.7 0 0% 8.1 7.9 (0.2) -2% (MB) Sales Revenue 63,312 110,637 47,325 +75% 199,810 333,904 134,094 +67% EBITDA (before unrealized markdown)
Slide 17: Solid Financial Position
Solid Financial Position Balance Sheet Consolidated Long-Term Debt (Unit: MB) 9M/08 154 074 154,074 136,570 41,615 LT Debt Bt. 41,615 mn. 110,324 31,842 Other (US$ 1,218 mn.) Current 30,452 30, 5 32 891 32,891 40 602 40,602 Assets Liabilities 19,706 1% 8% THB Loan Non-Current 71,837 71,857 Equities
Slide 18: Presentation Outline
Presentation Outline / Q3/08 / & 9M/08 i hli h Highlights Performance Analysis Business Outlook 18
Slide 19: 2009 GDP Forecast
2009 GDP Forecast % YoY 2008 2009 12.0 10.5 10 0 10.0 9.0 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.0 4.7 3.6 3.9 4.0 2.4 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 00 0.0 Global US EU JP IN CN TH GDP growth 2008 2009 (%qoq) 1Q’08 2Q’08 3Q’08 4Q’08 1Q’09 2Q’09 3Q’09 4Q’09 Global 1.3 1.7 0.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 2.4 2.7 US 0.6 2.8 -0.3 -4.0 -2.0 0.0
Slide 20: Global Oil Demand Growth
Global Oil Demand Growth Thousands barrels per day 2007 FSU Europe 2008 North America 70 112 118 2009 -336 -77 228 -126 348 -348 Middle East Asia -958 296 420 312 637 447 486 Latin America Africa 282 261 208 114 50 43 Source: IEA, October 2008 Nov’08 Global Demand Growth (mb/d) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Slide 21: Global Refinery Run
Global Refinery y Run US Refinery Run Source: PIRA, Norwegian Energy October 2008 21
Slide 22: Global Crude Stocks
Global Crude Stocks US Crude Stock OECD Europe Stock Japan Crude Stock Korea Crude Stock Source: PIRA, Norwegian Energy October 2008 22
Slide 23: Global Gasoline Stocks
Global Gasoline Stocks US Gasoline Stocks Mbbl Singapore Light Distillates Stocks 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 3 Year Range 2006 2007 2008 5 O ct Apr Jul Nov Jun Aug M ar M ay Dec Jan Feb S ep Source: PIRA, Norwegian Energy, Platts October 2008 23
Slide 24: Global Distillate Stocks
Global Distillate Stocks US Middle Distillate Stocks Mbbl Singapore Middle Distillates Stocks 14 12 100 8 6 4 3 Year Range 2006 2007 2008 2 O ct Jul Apr Nov Jun Aug M ar M ay Dec Jan Feb S ep Source: PIRA, Norwegian Energy, Platts October 2008 24
Slide 25: Global Product Cracks
Global Product Cracks MOGAS CRACK JET CRACK 40.00 50.00 35.00 45.00 30.00 40.00 25.00 35.00 20.00 30.00 15.00 25.00 10.00 5 00 5.00 20.00 0.00 15.00 ‐5.00 10.00 ‐10.00 5.00 EU US SING EU US SING ‐15.00 0.00 Sep‐‐07 Sep‐‐08 Sep‐‐07 Sep‐‐08 Mar‐‐07 Jul‐‐07 Mar‐‐08 Jul‐‐08 Jul‐‐07 Jul‐‐08 Mar‐‐07 Mar‐‐
Slide 26: Global GRM
0 5 -10 10 15 20 -5 0 5 -10 10 15 20 -5 Jan-07 $/BBL Jan-07 7 $/BBL Feb-07 Feb-07 7 Mar-07 Mar-07 7 Apr-07 Apr-07 7 May-07 May-07 7 Jun-07 Jun-07 7 Jul-07 Jul-07 7 Aug-07 Aug-07 7 Sep-07 Sep-07 7 Oct-07 WTI Oct-07 7 DB CRK GRM Nov-07 Nov-07 7 Dec-07 SINGAPORE Dec-07 7 Jan-08 Jan-08 8 Feb-08 Feb-08 8
Slide 27: Conclusions
Conclusions ¾ Recession in USA, EU and Japan has suppressed global oil demand growth, forcing lower crude oil price. ¾ Severe drop in Petchem (Olefins & Aromatics) demand has caused poor naphtha and gasoline cracks. ¾ Refineries having high naphtha/gasoline yields would have to cut run and produce l
Slide 28: Rewards & Recognitions
Rewards & Recognitions g Good Laboratory Practice Award CG for Environmental Management Award CSR-DIW Zero Accident Award 28
Slide 29: Q&A
Q&A 29
Slide 30: Thank You
Thank You Should Sh ld you have h any queries, i please l contact: t t Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioil.co.th Tel: 662- 662-299 299--0000 Fax: 662- 662-299 299--0128 30
Slide 31: Appendices
APPENDICES 31
Slide 32: Domestic LPG Demand
Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • Transportation fuel switching and petrochemical demand causingg local demand 9M up 22.6%. LPG Demand by Sector Outlook Q4/08 • Low oil price and government decision to increase local LPG price for transportation/industrial sectors would
Slide 33: Domestic Gasoline Demand
Domestic Gasoline Demand Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand Highlight • Low oil price supported higher demand in Q3/08. • However,, 9M/08 / demand still negative growth due to high oil price in Q2/08. Gasoline Demand by Type Outlook Q4/08 • Economic slowdown and fuel switching to NGV/LPG still
Slide 34: Domestic JET Demand
Domestic JET Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight • 9M/08 demand turns to negative growth with economic downside and political uncertainty. Outlook Q4/08 JET demand and # of flights • Lower jet demand would be outweighed by supply shortage in Q4/08 due to shutdown of local refineries. • E
Slide 35: Domestic Gasoil Demand
Domestic Gasoil Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight • Demand collapse in mid- year 08 to reflect higher prices and more p substitution. B5 Sales Outlook Q4/08 • Expect recover demand after retail price cut. • However, economic slowdown could limit growth magnitude. 2005 2006 2007 2
Slide 36: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • After a surge in FO demand in April as NG disruption, FO demand turned to negative growth due to NG replacement in Power sector. sector Outlook Q4/08 • Easing bunker supply during shutdown of local refinery in Q4. Source :
Slide 37: Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook
Regional g Oil Demand/Supply / pp y Outlook Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Growth Middle East Refining Capacity Addition KBD KBD Others Japan India China Supply Others Saudi Arabia 1 800 1,800 1,800 Kuwait Iraq YoY YoY Iran Supply 1,500 1,500 Demand Capacity 1,200 Growth Addition 1,200 900 YoY 900 Deman
Slide 38: Middle East: CDU Addition Delay
Middle East: CDU Addition Delay y FACTS: SPRING 2008 (April) FACTS: FALL 2008 (October) Middle East CDU additions Middle East CDU additions 1,000 1,000 2015 2015 2013-2014 2013-2014 800 800 2011-2012 2011-2012 2009-2010 2009-2010 600 600 2008 2008 400 400 200 200 0 0 Iran Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi UAE
Slide 39: PX Business Outlook
PX Business Outlook Global PX Supply / Demand & Operating Rate MT/Y 60 % 90 Paraxylene Highlight : 80 50 70 • PX Capacity grows faster than 40 60 50 demand. (Demand growth at 6.5% 30 40 while hil capacity it growth th att 7%) 20 30 20 10 10 • Most of new PX capacity will be 0 0 added in Asian esp. e
Slide 40: Benzene Business Outlook
Benzene Business Outlook Global BZ Supply & Demand พันตันตอป 60,000 Benzene Highlight : 50 000 50,000 40,000 • BZ will be over supply due to new 30,000 supply from China around 3-6 Mil. 20 000 20,000 T Tons per year. 10,000 0 • Start up of new Styrene Monomer 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 255
Slide 41: Lube Base Business Outlook
Lube Base Business Outlook Global Base Oil Demand / Supply Asia Base Oil Demand / Supply KT/year KT/year 45,000 15,000 Demand Supply Demand Supply 30 000 30,000 10 000 10,000 G. II,III 15,000 5,000 G. I 0 0 120062 3 2011 4 5 6 2014 7 8 9 2017 10 11 20062 1 3 2011 4 5 6 2014 7 8 9 2017 10 11 Source:
Thai Oil Public Company — Q3 2008 Earnings Presentation on 6ix