Slide 1: The Rise and Fall of Lithium
THE RISE AND FALL OF LITHIUM +60 MILLION TONS OF OPPORTUNITY Dr. David Deak Lithium Americas Corp. APRIL 2017 The views, estimates, and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Lithium Americas Corp. APRIL 2017 |
Slide 2: Why Are We Here?
WHY ARE WE HERE? APRIL 2017 |
Slide 3: Climate Change 101
CLIMATE CHANGE 101 Current 375 Level Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years before present Source: NASA APRIL 2017 | 3
Slide 4: Energy Sources vs CO2
ENERGY SOURCES VS CO 2 45 40 US energy consumption (quadrillion BTU) Petroleum 35 30 25 Natural Gas 20 15 Coal 10 Nuclear 5 Hydro Wood Renewables 0 1776 1836 1895 1956 2012 Source: EIA APRIL 2017 | 4
Slide 5: What Is the Opportunity?
WHAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY? APRIL 2017 |
Slide 6: Keeping the Lights On
KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON APRIL 2017 | 6
Slide 7: The EV: A Better User Experience
THE EV: A BETTER USER EXPERIENCE | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 7
Slide 8: Lithium: Cost Parity
LITHIUM: COST PARITY TODAY Source: McKinsey, EIA | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 8
Slide 9: Lithium: It's Light
LITHIUM: IT’S LIGHT Periodic table Lithium Anode 3 Li Cathode | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 9
Slide 10: Lithium: It's High Energy
LITHIUM: IT’S HIGH ENERGY Electrochemical series F2 + 2e- ⇄ 2F. +2.87 Pb4+ + 2e- ⇄ Pb2+ +1.67 Cl2 + 2e- ⇄ 2Cl- +1.36 O2 = 4H+ + 4e- ⇄ 2H2O +1.23 stronger reducing agent stronger oxidizing agent Ag+ + 1e- ⇄ Ag +0.80 Fe3+ + 1e- ⇄ Fe2+ +0.77 Cu2+ + 2e- ⇄ Cu +0.34 2H+ + 2e- ⇄ H2 0.00 Pb2+ + 2e- ⇄ Pb -0.
Slide 11: Lithium Market: Today
LITHIUM MARKET: TODAY $1.5 billion in sales 182 kt LCE market 40% Lithium carbonate Li-ion equivalent (LCE) Li 60% other 3-4 gigafactories Source: USGS | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 11
Slide 12: Gigafactory Mathematics
GIGAFACTORY MATHEMATICS To meet some oncoming demand (e.g. Tesla, VW) in 5 years: 1 GIGAFACTORY 4 GIGAFACTORIES 70 GWh / year x 0.7 kg LCE per kWh ~ 50,000 t of LCE per year ~ 200,000 t of LCE per year 70 GWh / 70 kWh per EV ~ 1 million EVs per year ~ 4 million EVs per year = 25% of today’s Li marke
Slide 13: Gigafactory Mathematics
GIGAFACTORY MATHEMATICS To electrify the world’s fleet of vehicles: 1 GIGAFACTORY 62 GIGAFACTORIES 70 GWh x 0.7 kg LCE per kWh ~ 50,000 t of LCE per year ~ 3.1 million tonnes of LCE per year 70 GWh / 70 kWh per EV ~ 1 million EVs per year ~ 62 million EVs per year Over 20 years: Over 20 years: = 1 m
Slide 14: Rapid Technology Adoption
RAPID TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION 100 Percent of households 75 50 25 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Electricity Range Refrigerator Radio Color Television Telephone Automobile Microwave Clothes Washer VCR Air Conditioning Clothes Dryer Dish Washer Computer Cell Phone Internet Electricity Source: BlackRock,
Slide 15: Lithium Market: Tomorrow
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW 3.1 million tonnes …. | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 15
Slide 16: Lithium Market: Tomorrow
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW EV market needs 20x growth Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) 3.1 million tpa LCE Over 60 gigafactories Excludes: Utility storage Semi trucks | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 16
Slide 17: Where Are the Opportunities?
WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES? APRIL 2017 |
Slide 18: Lithium Sources
LITHIUM SOURCES BRINE HARD ROCK CLAY | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 18
Slide 19: Lithium Production Costs
LITHIUM PRODUCTION COSTS Difficult to escape physics Plenty of room for optimization Innovate to lower cost | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 19
Slide 20: Innovate: Streamline Process
INNOVATE: STREAMLINE PROCESS ore/brine Li2CO LiOH⋅H2O ore/brine LiOH⋅H2O | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 20
Slide 21: Innovate: Revamp Energy Systems
INNOVATE: REVAMP ENERGY SYSTEMS Build on first principles $0.35/kWh <$0.05/kWh Vertical integration | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 21
Slide 22: Innovate: Alternative Brine Tech
INNOVATE: ALTERNATIVE BRINE TECH Increase yield recovery Process for all circumstances Optimize water management | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 22
Slide 23: Innovate: Alternative Rock Tech
INNOVATE: ALTERNATIVE ROCK TECH Vertical integration $0.35/kWh <$0.05/kWh Recycle consumables | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 23
Slide 24: Innovate: Clay Opportunity
INNOVATE: CLAY OPPORTUNITY Robust process exists* Favorable thermodynamics Goal: optimizing mass-energy balance *Not yet commercialized | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 24
Slide 25: How to Best Invest in Lithium?
HOW TO BEST INVEST IN LITHIUM? $40 BILLION | T SX : LAC APRIL 2017 | 25
Slide 26: Take-Aways
TAKE-AWAYS 1 Electrification of transport is a reality • Better user experience 2 Lithium market must grow by a factor of +20 • For EV market needs • Cost parity today • More for utilities, semi-trucks et al. 3 Investable projects are: • Scalable and risk-manageable • Built on collaborative talent 4
Slide 27: The Future Is Clear
THE FUTURE IS CLEAR CONTACT INFORMATION info@lithiumamericas.com 1100 – 355 Burrard Street Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8 Canada APRIL 2017 | Hong Kong