Irpc Public Co., Ltd. · SET:IRPC
Irpc Public — Investor Presentation (October 2012)
35 slides from Irpc Public's investor presentation, Oct 15, 2012
Slide 1: 2013 Global Oil Market Outlook
2013 GLOBAL OIL MARKET OUTLOOK PTT Group Oil Market Intelligence team 15 October 2012 1
Slide 2: Agenda
AGENDA Global Oil Demand Global Oil Supply Oil Price Outlook Thailand Petroleum Demand Outlook 2
Slide 3: Oil Demand Outlook
Oil Demand Outlook 3
Slide 4: Factors That Will Influence Oil Demand
FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE IN OIL DEMAND
Slide 5: World GDP Growth 3.6%
WORLD GDP GROWTH 3.6% 12 , SWORLD WSUNITEDSTATES MEUROPEANUNION SEUROAREA &MIDDLEEAST and NORTH AFRICA CHINA «&BRICS 10 -0.2 -0.4 2010 2011 2012 2013 The sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area and the U.S. budget, both of which could negatively affect growth prospects. /A\ opt f ; Z\PRISM : ° SOURCE
Slide 6: Probability of Recession in 2013
PROBABILITY OF RECESSION IN 2013 84.6 @ April 2012WEO Current ll 0 — UNITED STATES EURO AREA JAPAN EMERGINGASIA —LATINAMERICA REMAINING ECONOMIC UNIT : Trillion US Dollar GROW WUNITEDSTATES EURO AREA S&MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA &BRIC 82.65 A @ [> , | 2013 SOURCE : IMF (WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK) Zer
Slide 7: Key Risks to Watch
KEY RISKS TO WATCH we Unemployment Rate 52012 w2013 = 200 5, “ % of Debt to GDPy¢5 2012 42013 «2014 #2015 = il * prowce GERMANY GREECE IRELAND «ITALY «PORTUGAL «SPAIN 150 20> | sino nin ibn: ‘iallf | France GERMANY GREECE IRELAND ITALY PORTUGAL SPAIN Possible change in deficit = $606 billion Other r
Slide 8: Oil Demand Growth 2013
OIL DEMAND GROWTH 2013 UNIT : MMBD 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 ~ 30.00 - 20.00 -— 10.00 0.00 ~ 45.27 44.80 WORLD DEMAND OECD DEMAND NON-OECD DEMAND UNIT : MMBD 0.87 0.99 2013 SWORLDDEMAND ®SOECDDEMAND &NON-OECD DEMAND Jvertiit SOURCE : PRISM
Slide 9: Forecast Global Demand
FORECAST GLOBAL DEMAND UNIT : MMBD } ~ b 4.50 4.65 Cao Bei ——~- w= “P22 2012 ~2013__) Change 2012 2013) ‘Change S765 —— 30.14 30.32 0.19 2012 2013) ¢ —~p —p —_— Q hange ; 2012 2013 Change 28.93 29.38 . s ——_— 2012 2013, | _ (Change | AFRICA 3.38 3.43 as ee —— 2012 2013 | Change SOURCE : PRISM ; AN P
Slide 10: World Oil Demand Driven by Emerging Market
WORLD OIL DEMAND DRIVEN BY EMERGING MARKET UNIT : KBD 450 > 2013 World Demand Growth by Main Oil Products (KBD) 449 400 350 | LPG @NAPHTHA | GASOLINE 300 - @JET/KERO " GASOIL/DIESEL (FUEL OIL 20 | woTHER PRODUCTS 200 150 100 : | “- C) -50 -— = LPG NAPHTHA GASOLINE JET/KERO GASOIL/ DIESEL FUEL OIL OT
Slide 11: Weather
WEATHER Projected to be warmer than normal UNIT : KBD U.S. West Europe Japan 2013 A! -15 -10 \3 ty Oris) x 30: — ef2090006 ~"N OW AQAN GiSTemp Land-Ocean Index Anomaly (C) Pinatubo S_ ° EI Chichon * Warm Nino 3.4 -0.1 * Neutral Nino 3.4 « Cool Nino 3.4 -0.2 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 '* (\ opt ” _\ PR
Slide 12: Non-Fossil Fuels Growth Is Led by Renewables
NON-FOSSIL FUELS GROWTH IS LED BY RENEWABLES Top Countries for Renewable Investment ™@ FOSSILENERGY | NUCLEAR a |@ MODERN RENEWABLES «TRADITIONAL BIOMASS . __———* Biomass/Solar/ Geothermal ——_=r re / Hot water/Heating ‘© Hydropower = ind / Solar/ Biomass/ Co |8.5% Geothermal power or: Gasoline-only
Slide 13: Oil Supply Outlook
Oil Supply Outlook 13
Slide 14: How Is the World Supplied?
HOW IS THE WORLD SUPPLIED? Source : EIA, IEA, OPEC and Prism Non-OPEC production makes up two-thirds of the world’s oil supply; whereas OPEC contributes the remaining portion 14
Slide 15: What Is the Trend for Supply?
WHAT IS THE TREND FOR SUPPLY? NON-OPEC OPEC NGL CALL ON PRISM DEMAND SUPPLY CONDENSATE OPEC 2011 88.36 52.43 5.46 30.50 2012 89.20 52.95 5.84 30.41 2013 90.08 53.92 6.08 30.08 OIL SUPPLY OUTLOOK GROWTH 2012 AND 2013 (MMBD) MMBD 0.87 15 Source : EIA, IEA, OPEC and Prism
Slide 16: Majority of Non-OPEC Supply Growth Come from the America
MAJORITY OF NON-OPEC SUPPLY GROWTH COME FROM THE AMERICA WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND GROWTH 2012 VS 2013 2013 AVERAGE DEMAND – (Non-OPEC + OPEC NGLS/Condensate) = Call On OPEC MMBD 0.24 0.12 OTHERS 0.10 FSU 0.13 AFRICA 0.11 ASIA 0.64 AMERICA -0.13 EUROPE -0.34 Source : EIA, IEA, OPEC and Prism 16
Slide 17: Can the US Be Self-Sustained in the Future?
CAN THE US BE SELF-SUSTAINED IN THE FUTURE? US OIL DEMAND & PRODUCT IMPORT FORECAST US Oil Demand More Self-Sufficient US Crude Oil Import US Crude Production FORECAST 2025 2035 Source : EIA Annual Energy Outlook Report 2012 17
Slide 18: Shale Oil & Gas Across the US
SHALE OIL & GAS ACROSS THE US 18
Slide 19: Saudi Arabia, Big Boss of OPEC
SAUDI ARABIA, BIG BOSS OF OPEC MMBD OPEC PRODUCTION BY COUNTRIES Qatar UAE Ecuador Algeria 35 Kuwait Angola Nigeria Venezuela UNIT/ 2012 2011 Libya Iraq Iran Saudi MMBD YTD 30 Saudi 9.23 9.79 Arabia Iran 3.62 3.23 25 Iraq 2.65 2.89 20 Venezuela 2.33 2.80 UAE 2.33 2.60 15 Kuwait 2.47 2.73 Nigeria 2.1
Slide 20: OPEC Surplus Capacity
OPEC SURPLUS CAPACITY OPEC spare capacity will increase +0.2 MMB/D to 2.375 MMB/D in 2013. This will add more supply buffer to the crude oil market. * OPEC capacity excludes Iran and Iraq 20
Slide 21: Balance of the Market in 2013
BALANCE OF THE MARKET IN 2013 1Q/11 2Q/11 3Q/11 4Q/11 1Q/12 2Q/12 3Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 2Q/13 3Q/13 4Q/13 Stock Build M -0.48 -0.40 -1.42 -0.34 -3.1 M -0.21 0.0 B Stock 1.34 1.52 0.65 0.95 0.99 D Draw 32 OPEC Crude Production PRISM Forecast Call On OPEC 31.5 31 30.5 30 29.5 29 28.5 28 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
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Slide 23: Supply Shock to Watch
SUPPLY SHOCK TO WATCH UNIT MMBD (EST. YTD) SPR Release CRUDE PRODUCTION 2012 CRUDE EXPORT 2012 Iraq Syria 2.90/ 0.15/ 2.89 Iran 0.03 3.00/ 1.56 1.30/ 1.21 Libya 0.20/ 2.12/ 0.15 1.50 Sudan & South Sudan Nigeria OECD SPR STOCKS UNIT/ CRUDE PRODUCT MMB AMERICA 700 1 EU 190 235 ASIA 390 20 TOTAL 1,280
Slide 24: Oil Price Outlook
Oil Price Outlook 24
Slide 25: 2013 Oil Market Outlook Summary
2013 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY Macro & Oil Demand Moderate Economic Growth But downside risks remain… Fiscal cliff Oil Demand + 0.9 MBD to 90.1 MBD EU crisis Fiscal cliff EU crisis Oil Supply Other Factors Weather Green Trend Policy Geopolitical Risks Disaster 25
Slide 26: 2013 Oil Price Scenario
2013 OIL PRICE SCENARIO KEY Israel attacks Iran MENA Seaway Pipeline Hurricane Tensions Expansion North Sea season Israel OPEC US Election Election Maintenance Winter Meeting US Summer Demand New China’s Stockpiling Iran Japan leader Election Election OPEC Meeting SPR Release Sudan-S. Sudan Output R
Slide 27: 2013 Oil Price Outlook
2013 OIL PRICE OUTLOOK What We See…. “Volatile oil prices on economic and politic uncertainties” Range $90-120 2013 Dubai $105 Factors to watch…. US Fiscal Cliff Middle East Tension EU Debt Crisis 27
Slide 28: 2013 Oil Price Outlook: What Others See
2013 OIL PRICE OUTLOOK What others see. . . • Slowing global economic growth and receding worries over a loss of Middle East supply are the key factors to bring oil prices down next year • Only 4% of analysts expect Brent to below $100 next year • 51% of analysts believe Brent will average between $
Slide 29: Thailand Oil Demand Outlook
Thailand Oil Demand Outlook 29
Slide 30: Oil Demand Forecast Framework
OIL DEMAND FORECAST FRAMEWORK Oil Prices Outlook MOPS Prices Outlook (Gasoline/Diesel/Jet/FO/LPG) Economic Factor Government Policies Factor GDP, Private Consumption, Bio-fuel, Fuel Specification, Manufacturing Production Energy Prices e.g. Diesel, NGV, LPG Index, Car Sales, Tourism Petroleum Pricin
Slide 31: Growth Despite Global Slowdown
GROWTH DESPITE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN Thai GDP is forecasted to grow around 5%. • Global economic slowdown namely US, EU and China largely depresses Thai export value. GDP Growth %yoy 2012F 2013F JP Morgan 3.5 2.3 Standard Chartered 3.5 4.9 Kasikorn Research 5.0 5.0 HSBC 5.5 4.5 Nomura 5.5 4.7 Thai Fiscal
Slide 32: Oil Demand Forecast Framework
OIL DEMAND FORECAST FRAMEWORK Oil Prices Outlook MOPS Prices Outlook (Gasoline/Diesel/Jet/FO/LPG) Economic Factor Government Policies Factor GDP, Private Consumption, Bio-fuel, Fuel Specification, Manufacturing Production Energy Prices e.g. Diesel, NGV, LPG Index, Car Sales, Tourism Petroleum Pricin
Slide 33: Gov't Policy... The Biggest Factor
GOV’T POLICY… THE BIGGEST FACTOR Gas price Increase 30 Baht diesel Bio-fuel Gasoline 91 Thailand oil demand is highly Phase Out affected by government policy. • Diesel has surged by 7% this year after the price is closely monitored by government of which trend is likely to continue. • LPG and NGV re
Slide 34: Unstoppable Demand
UNSTOPPABLE DEMAND Mogas +1% Thai Petroleum Demand 2011-13 Diesel +4% + 4% + Price control at 30B/litre + Diesel tax delay + 8% + NGV price to rise + 1% + 3% +12% Source: Department of Energy Business / Thaioil 34
Slide 35: Thank You
THANK YOU PTT Group Oil Market Intelligence Team 35
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