Suncor Energy Inc. · TSX:SU
Suncor Energy — Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation
21 slides from Suncor Energy's earnings presentation, Feb 15, 2023
Slide 1: Investor Information Q4 2022
SUNCOR ENERGY Investor Information Q4 2022 Published February 14, 2023 SUNCOR ENERGY
Slide 2: Suncor's value proposition
Suncor’s value proposition1 Physical integration Operational excellence Growing shareholder returns Regional Oil Sands scale & Safety above all else Industry leading cash returns connectivity driving value (2012-22) Industry best integrated 2 dividend increases in 2022 Downstream Maintain high relia
Slide 3: Strong balance sheet & industry leading cash returns
Strong balance sheet & industry leading cash returns1 Industry leading integrated model cash generation Strong track record of cash returns ~60 %(lessofsustaining (C$ billion) 10yr cumulative AFFO $20 capex) returned to shareholders Top ~$9/share $15 SU SU SU SU SU SU SU SU Tier TTM2 AFFO Cash yield
Slide 4: Disciplined capital allocation
Disciplined capital allocation 1 O R D E R O F P R I O R I T Y Annual AFFO Allocation Net Debt (incl. ~$3B cap leases) Sustaining Economic Share Buyback / Net Debt Reduction Dividend3 ($ billion) Capital2 Capital4 (annualized %) 12 – 15 50 / 50 ~$2.2 ~$3.4 $2.08/ share 75 / 25 9 – 12 billion billion
Slide 5: Physical integration to maximize value of every barrel
Physical integration to maximize value of every barrel Deep regional Oil Sands integration ~28 year Oil Sands Reserve Life Index ~25 mmbbl storage ~0.91 ~1.21 Western Canada Mbpd Mbpd Brent (E&P) Brent (E&P) ~15 mmbbl storage Eastern Canada National wholesale Gasoline & retail network & Diesel Value
Slide 6: No exploration risk and ~7 Bboe of 2P reserves
No exploration risk and ~7 Bboe of 2P reserves Production Mix1 Decline Reservoir Recovery (2023E) rate risk factor E&P ~15% decline Mining Very low Very low Very high Oil Sands Operations Syncrude ~0% mining decline In Situ Low Low High ~0% decline & ~12% In Situ decline Fort Hills Offshore Medium M
Slide 7: Integrated footprint of Oil Sands assets
Integrated footprint of Oil Sands assets Strategy – maximize margins & keep upgraders full (90% utilization) • Optionality from multiple oil sands assets (mining & SAGD) • All sites are connected by pipeline: • Firebag & MacKay River – Base Plant • Syncrude – Base Plant • Fort Hills – Base Plant Clo
Slide 8: Upstream oil sands operations
Upstream oil sands operations Suncor has a long history of improving operational reliability, now focused on mining Upgrading and Mining Assets In Situ Assets (2018 - 2022) (2013 - 2022) • Base Plant upgrader utilization steadily increased to • Combined average of >90% utilization over the past 10 ~
Slide 9: Downstream advantage – industry best utilization & profitability
Downstream advantage – industry best utilization & profitability Refinery utilization vs. industry Industry leading profitability during pandemic2 Percent of refining capacity 2020 R&M (excluding rack forward) EBITDA per barrel Suncor US Average1 Cdn Average1 100 Full turnaround at the Edmonton $10
Slide 10: Our GHG emissions objective – net zero by 2050
Our GHG emissions objective – net zero by 20501,2 10 GHG reduction approaches to 2030 Mt per year reduction by 20301,2 Reduce our own emissions through energy 10 Fuel switching • Low-carbon up to upMt to ~20% up to and alternate efficiency, fuel switching and CCUS power ~50% reduction ~20% products
Slide 11: Sustainability leadership
Sustainability leadership 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 First First Set four Set long- First climate risk report Completed Canada’s Invested in CCUS environment renewable long-term term carbon first coast-to-coast EV technology with report energy environmental and socia
Slide 12: 2023 capital budget
2023 capital budget1 ECONOMIC INVESTMENT Economic investment ($M) CAPITAL2 Decline mitigation ~1,100 – 1,200 Investing in projects to improve efficiency, E&P ~725 – 775 West White Rose: ~$400M; ~30% IRR flexibility & resilience In Situ well pads ~375 – 425 Firebag and MacKay River well pads; ~30% IR
Slide 13: 2023 capital & production guidance
2023 capital & production guidance1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PRODUCTION & OPERATING COSTS Capital2 Economic Production4 Cash Operating Costs ($ millions) Investment3 (boepd) ($/bbl) Oil Sands 3,625 – 3,875 30% Oil Sands Operations 385,000 – 425,000 $30.00 – $33.00 E&P 725 – 775 100% Fort Hills (68.76% W
Slide 14: Appendix
SUNCOR ENERGY Appendix 14 202003-038
Slide 15: Oil sands energy sources
Oil sands energy sources *All values net to Suncor In Situ Mining Firebag Base Plant 215,000 bpd capacity 350,000 bpd capacity Suncor WI 100% Suncor WI 100% 2,686 mmbbls 2P reserves 1 1,158 mmbbls 2P reserves 1 Note: Millennium and North Steepbank Mines do not supply full 350,000 bpd of capacity as
Slide 16: Offshore with ~280 million barrels of 2P reserves
Offshore with ~280 million barrels of 2P reserves1 East Coast Canada Hibernia Terra Nova2 ExxonMobil operated Suncor Energy operated Suncor working interest 20% Suncor working interest 48% 71 mmboe 2P reserves 1 (Suncor WI) 31 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) 2022 avg net production: 15.1 mbbls/d Expe
Slide 17: Refining advantage
Refining advantage ~40% equity feedstock & ~100% inland crude Feedstock advantages2 Product advantages2 Edmonton Directly connected to Oil Sands Large market reach with international export 1 production; ability to process multiple capability via tidewater; in-line product blending 146 kbpd crude ty
Slide 18: Refined product markets
Refined product markets ~555 mbpd Product sales in 20221 ~20% Edmonton refinery services Canadian region from BC to consumer fuel Ontario Montreal and market2 Sarnia have a local market reach over 22mm people5 ~325 Export capability to US Wholesale Cardlock Pacific NW Locations3 ~1,585 Commerce City
Slide 19: Advisories
Advisories Forward-Looking Statements – Forward-Looking Statements – This market; the timely receipt of regulatory and other approvals; the non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within timing of sanction decisions a
Slide 20: Slide Notes
Slide Notes Slide 2------------------------------------------------------------- HollyFrontier, Husky, Imperial, Marathon (excluding Speedway), Maintenance capital expenditures. For a description of asset (1) Based on company’s current business plans and the current PBF, Phillips and Valero. Source
Slide 21: Investor relations contacts
Investor relations contacts Troy Muhammad Christian Matilda Stacey Little Usman Leung Lo Hunter Vice President IR Director IR Manager IR Manager IR Coordinator IR trlittle@suncor.com muusman@suncor.com chrileung@suncor.com mkragulj@suncor.com sthunter@suncor.com Visit us at the Investor Centre on su