64 slides from Munchener Ruckversicherungs-gesellschaft's earnings presentation, Aug 6, 2015
Slide 1: Annual guidance raised after strong half-year performance
plainpicture/fStop/Ralf Hiemisch Annual guidance raised after strong half-year performance Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 6 August 2015 Nikolaus von Bomhard Jörg Schneider Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Introduction 2 Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) 5 ERGO 11 Munich Health 21 Reinsurance 25 Outlook 34 Backup 36 Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 2
Slide 3: Structural and cyclical industry trends providing challenges and opportunities
Introduction Structural and cyclical industry trends providing challenges and opportunities … Industry impact Munich Re’s response Lower reinvestment yields Well-balanced investment portfolio, long and attrition of regular asset duration and broad geographic income … diversification … combined
Slide 4: Munich Re is well positioned to shape the changing (re-)insurance landscape
Introduction … as Munich Re is well positioned to shape the changing (re-)insurance landscape Industry impact Munich Re’s response Reinsurance Increase of traditional/ Diversified portfolio – strict bottom-line supply/ alternative capacity focus – growing Risk Solutions business demand Higher
Slide 5: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 5
Slide 6: Financial highlights Q2 2015
Munich Re (Group) – Financial highlights Q2 2015 Annual net result guidance increased to at least €3bn Munich Re (Group) – Q2 2015 (H1 2015) NET RESULT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY INVESTMENT RESULT €1,076m (€1,866m) €30.7bn (–11.7% vs. 31.3.) RoI of 4.1% (3.6%) Strong Q2 supported by benign Sound capitalis
Slide 7: Net result
Munich Re (Group) – Financial highlights Q2 2015 Net result Net result €m H1 2015 H1 2014 1,194 1,076 941 Total 1,866 1,703 762 736 731 790 630 Reinsurance 1,510 1,397 ERGO 318 264 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 Munich Health 38 42 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 1,673 1,7
Slide 8: IFRS capital position
Munich Re (Group) – Capitalisation IFRS capital position Equity €m UNREALISED GAINS/LOSSES Equity 31.12.2014 30,289 Change Q2 Fixed-interest securities H1: –€1,247m Consolidated result 1,866 1,076 Q2: –€2,324m Changes Non-fixed-interest securities Dividend –1,293 –1,293 H1: €39m Unrealised gains/los
Slide 9: Investment portfolio
Munich Re (Group) – Investment portfolio Investment portfolio Investment portfolio1 % Portfolio management in Q2 Land and buildings Fixed-interest Decline in market values due to increasing 2.5 (2.4) securities interest rates 56.3 (55.5) Shares, equity funds and Purchase of US government bonds, part
Slide 10: Investment result – Seasonal impact from dividends
Munich Re (Group) – Investment result Investment result – Seasonal impact from dividends and positive contribution from equity derivatives in Q2 Investment result €m H1 2015 Return1 H1 2014 Return1 Q2 2015 Return1 Q1 2015 Return1 Regular income 3,863 3.2% 3,604 3.3% 2,062 3.4% 1,801 3.0% Write-ups/w
Slide 11: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 11
Slide 12: ERGO – Premium development
ERGO – Premium development ERGO – Premium development Gross premiums written €m Segmental breakdown €m H1 2014 8,618 Life/Health Property-casualty Germany Germany Foreign-exchange effects 9 4,727 (56%) 1,831 (21%) (▲ –3.6%) (▲ 0.2%) Divestments/investments 20 Organic change –127 International 1,962
Slide 13: ERGO Life/Health Germany – Key figures
ERGO Life/Health Germany – Key figures ERGO Life/Health Germany – Key figures Net result €m 130 105 68 73 66 51 54 31 27 39 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 211 2,281 173 1,979 –139 –126 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014
Slide 14: ERGO Life/Health Germany – Highlights
ERGO Life/Health Germany ERGO Life/Health Germany – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Total premiums –3.7% Investment result –13.2% Life Losses on equity derivatives in Q1 2015 partially Reduced new business – New life products reversed in Q2 2015 making up ~20% of total new business1 Losses on i
Slide 15: ERGO Property-casualty Germany – Key figures
ERGO Property-casualty Germany – Key figures ERGO Property-casualty Germany – Key figures Net result €m 187 150 126 68 58 31 37 18 11 19 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 201 150 –67 –68 103 96 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1
Slide 16: ERGO Property-casualty Germany – Highlights
ERGO Property-casualty Germany ERGO Property-casualty Germany – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Gross premiums +0.2% Technical result –6.8% Overall stable premium income Good combined ratio of 93.4% in Q2 Increase in fire/property and liability cannot compensate for large losses in Q1 – Decli
Slide 17: ERGO Property-casualty Germany
ERGO Property-casualty Germany ERGO Property-casualty Germany Combined ratio % Gross premiums written €m 101.3 Other Motor 181 431 98.1 Legal protection 97.1 95.4 208 TOTAL €1,831m Personal accident 95.7 95.4 95.3 332 94.0 93.5 93.4 Fire/property Liability 333 346 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Slide 18: ERGO International – Key figures
ERGO International – Key figures ERGO International – Key figures Net result €m 58 72 48 12 14 11 15 26 8 –396 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 323 240 –73 –64 80 45 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 1 Other non-o
Slide 19: ERGO International property-casualty
ERGO International property-casualty ERGO International property-casualty Combined ratio % Gross premiums written €m Other Poland 198 433 100.4 100.0 100.4 99.2 98.7 97.5 Legal TOTAL protection €1,183m 98.0 364 97.2 96.8 94.9 Greece Turkey 77 111 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expense ratio Los
Slide 20: ERGO International – Highlights
ERGO International ERGO International – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Gross premiums +4.1% Technical result –43.8% P-C P-C Organic growth, esp. in Poland and Turkey Lower results mainly in Poland and Turkey Increase in UK mainly driven by FX Poland: higher loss ratio mainly in motor lines
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 21
Slide 22: Munich Health – Premium development
Munich Health – Premium development Munich Health – Premium development Gross premiums written €m Segmental breakdown €m H1 2014 2,740 Reinsurance Primary insurance 2,197 (77%) 670 (23%) Foreign-exchange effects 218 (▲ 6.0%) (▲ 0.4%) Divestments/investments1 –18 Organic change –73 H1 2015 2,867 Gros
Slide 23: Munich Health – Key figures
Munich Health – Key figures Munich Health – Key figures Net result €m 56 53 42 38 26 22 23 20 15 14 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 67 –6 43 –18 38 –2 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 1 Other non-operating resul
Slide 24: Munich Health – Highlights
Munich Health Munich Health – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Gross premiums +4.6% Technical result Organic change –€73m: Reduced share of Overall combined ratio slightly up to 100.1% large-volume deals, partly compensated for by chiefly due to claims experience in the US – organic growth in Midd
Slide 25: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 25
Slide 26: Reinsurance – Premium development
Reinsurance – Premium development Reinsurance – Premium development Gross premiums written €m Segmental breakdown €m H1 2014 13,422 Life Property-casualty 5,116 (36%) 9,002 (64%) Foreign-exchange effects 1,648 (▲ 3.5%) (▲ 6.2%) Divestments/investments 30 Organic change –982 H1 2015 14,118 Gross prem
Slide 27: Reinsurance Life – Key figures
Reinsurance Life – Key figures Reinsurance Life – Key figures Net result €m 246 189 122 124 129 123 71 52 34 –14 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 524 442 219 –87 –149 133 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 1 Other
Slide 28: Reinsurance Life – Highlights
Reinsurance Life Reinsurance Life – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Gross premiums +3.5% Technical result –39.3% Positive FX effects of €488m driven by the US At €30m in Q2 2015, the result remained well and Canadian dollars below expectations due to a series of reasons Negative organic change
Slide 29: Reinsurance Property-casualty – Key figures
Reinsurance Property-casualty – Key figures Reinsurance Property-casualty – Key figures Net result €m 1,387 1,151 895 835 790 646 597 524 505 497 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Technical result €m Investment result €m Other1 €m 1,297 1,330 1,060 1,121 –377 –534 H1 2014 H1 201
Slide 30: Reinsurance Property-casualty – Highlights
Reinsurance Property-casualty Reinsurance Property-casualty – Highlights H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Gross premiums +6.2% Technical result +22.4% Significant positive FX effects of €1,160m, Positive FX-effect on combined ratio mainly driven by US$ Very low level of major nat cat losses Negative orga
Slide 31: Combined ratio
Reinsurance Property-casualty – Combined ratio Combined ratio Combined ratio % Basic losses Major losses Expense ratio Normalised 2013 92.1 51.3 10.4 30.4 2014 92.7 53.0 7.2 32.5 H1 2015 92.8 56.3 5.4 31.1 ~99.1 Q2 2015 93.3 57.6 4.8 30.9 ~99.9 Combined ratio % Major losses % 101.4 Total Nat cat Man
Slide 32: July renewals – Regional focus on USA, Australia and Latin America
Reinsurance Property-casualty – July renewals 2015 July renewals – Regional focus on USA, Australia and Latin America Total property-casualty book1 % Regional allocation of July renewals % Remaining Business up for Rest2 North business January renewal 6 America 23 57 36 Europe TOTAL Worldwide 6 €2.3
Slide 33: Price decreases slowing down
Reinsurance Property-casualty – July renewals 2015 Price decreases slowing down July renewals 2015 % 100 –14.3 85.7 0.8 12.3 98.8 Top line €m 2,344 –336 2,008 20 289 2,317 Slightly down, due to lower nat cat premiums Change in premium –1.2% Business opportunities Thereof price movement1 ~ –2.1%
Slide 34: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 34
Slide 35: Outlook 2015
Outlook 2015 Munich Re (Group) GROSS PREMIUMS WRITTEN1 RETURN ON INVESTMENT NET RESULT ~3.3% at least €3bn €49–51bn (prev. at least 3%) (prev. €2.5–3bn) Focus on bottom-line Solid return given ongoing Raised after strong H1 result growth prevails low interest-rate environment Reinsurance ERGO Munich
Slide 36: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Financial reporting H1 2015 Munich Re (Group) ERGO Munich Health Reinsurance Outlook Backup Quarterly financial statements as at 30 June 2015 36
Slide 37: Premium development
Backup: Munich Re (Group) Premium development Gross premiums written €m H1 2014 24,780 Foreign-exchange effects 1,875 Divestment/investment 32 Organic change –1,182 H1 2015 25,505 Segmental breakdown €m Reinsurance property-casualty ERGO Life/Health Germany 9,002 (35%) (▲ 6.2%) 4,727 (19%) (▲ –3.6%)
Slide 38: Reconciliation of operating to net result
Backup: Munich Re (Group) Reconciliation of operating to net result Reconciliation of operating to net result €m H1 Q2 Operating result 2,813 1,818 Other non-operating result –426 –432 Goodwill impairments – – Net finance costs –120 –60 Taxes –401 –250 Net result 1,866 1,076 Other non-operating resu
Slide 39: Actual vs. analysts’ consensus
Backup: Munich Re (Group) Actual vs. analysts’ consensus Operating result – Actual vs. analysts’ consensus1 €m Major developments in Q2 2015 Actual Q2 Consensus Delta Reinsurance Property-casualty Combined ratio of 93.3% below consensus Reinsurance P-C 1,246 727 519 (93.9%) – low major loss ratio: 4
Slide 40: ERGO Life – New business
Backup: ERGO Life – New business ERGO Life – New business (statutory premiums) Life total H1 H1 2015 2014 Δ abs. Δ% New business 1,009 1,125 –116 –10.3 Regular premiums 174 212 –38 –17.9 Single premiums 835 913 –78 –8.5 APE1 258 303 –45 –14.9 Germany (including direct business) New business 515 627
Slide 41: Development of combined ratio
Backup: Reinsurance Property-casualty – Combined ratio Development of combined ratio Combined ratio vs. basic losses % Combined ratio Basic loss ratio 99.3 94.3 101.4 91.3 92.3 93.3 89.4 83.2 85.7 89.3 86.9 91.2 53.6 54.1 53.9 49.3 47.8 55.9 54.6 55.3 54.9 57.6 32.5 46.4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q
Slide 42: Breakdown of regular income
Backup: Investments Breakdown of regular income Actual H1 2015 Investment result – Q1 Q2 H1 H1 Regular income (€m) 2015 2015 2015 2014 Change Afs fixed-interest 907 897 1,805 1,772 33 Afs non-fixed-interest 98 314 412 290 122 Derivatives 35 36 71 33 38 Loans 526 525 1,051 1,095 –44 Real estate 88 89
Slide 43: Breakdown of write-ups/write-downs
Backup: Investments Breakdown of write-ups/write-downs Actual H1 2015 Investment result – Q1 Q2 H1 H1 Write-ups/write-downs (€m) 2015 2015 2015 2014 Change Afs fixed-interest –32 3 –30 1 –31 Afs non-fixed-interest –31 –44 –75 –38 –37 Loans –65 0 –65 8 –73 Real estate –19 –18 –37 –30 –7 Deposits reta
Slide 44: Breakdown of net result from disposals
Backup: Investments Breakdown of net result from disposals Actual H1 2015 Investment result – Q1 Q2 H1 H1 Net result from disposal of investments (€m) 2015 2015 2015 2014 Change Afs fixed-interest 610 347 957 475 482 Afs non-fixed-interest 369 400 769 581 188 Loans 10 60 70 138 –68 Real estate 5 0 5
Slide 45: Return on investment by asset class and segment
Backup: Investments Return on investment by asset class and segment Actual H1 2015 %1 Regular Write-ups/ Disposal Extraord. Other ᴓ Market value income write-downs result derivative result inc./exp. RoI (€m) Afs fixed-income 2.7 – 1.4 – – 4.1 133,685 Afs non-fixed-income 5.5 –1.0 10.2 – – 14.7 15,08
Slide 46: Investment result by segment
Backup: Investments Investment result by segment Investment result – Reinsurance – Life €m H1 2015 Return1 H1 2014 Return1 Q2 2015 Return1 Q1 2015 Return1 Regular income 452 3.4% 400 3.4% 229 3.4% 223 3.4% Write-ups/write-downs –15 –0.1% –5 0.0% –7 –0.1% –8 –0.1% Disposal gains/losses 190 1.5% 116 1
Slide 47: Investment result by segment
Backup: Investments Investment result by segment Investment result – ERGO Life/Health Germany €m H1 2015 Return1 H1 2014 Return1 Q2 2015 Return1 Q1 2015 Return1 Regular income 2,017 3.4% 1,974 3.6% 1,095 3.6% 922 3.0% Write-ups/write-downs –80 –0.1% –15 0.0% –21 –0.1% –59 –0.2% Disposal gains/losses
Slide 48: Investment result by segment
Backup: Investments Investment result by segment Investment result – ERGO International €m H1 2015 Return1 H1 2014 Return1 Q2 2015 Return1 Q1 2015 Return1 Regular income 257 2.8% 258 3.1% 140 3.1% 117 2.5% Write-ups/write-downs –44 –0.5% 16 0.2% –21 –0.5% –23 –0.5% Disposal gains/losses 93 1.0% 40 0
Slide 49: Investment portfolio: Fixed-interest securities and miscellaneous
Backup: Investments Investment portfolio Fixed-interest securities and miscellaneous Investment portfolio % Fixed-interest securities1 % Miscellaneous Fixed-interest securities Structured products Governments/ 7.7 (7.7) 56.3 (55.5) 4 (5) semi-government 61 (59) Corporates 16 (15) TOTAL Banks TOTAL €
Slide 50: Fixed-income portfolio Total
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Total Fixed-income portfolio % Loans to policyholders/ Governments/ mortgage loans semi-government 3 (3) 52 (50) Structured products 3 (3) Bank bonds TOTAL 3 (3) €207bn Cash/other 4 (4) Corporate bonds 10 (10) Pfandbriefe/ covered bonds 25 (27) Approximatio
Slide 51: Fixed-income portfolio Total
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Total Rating structure % Regional breakdown % <BB and NR AAA Without With Total 7 (6) 41 (42) policyholder 30.6. 31.12. participation 2015 2014 BB 2 (2) Germany 5.3 24.0 29.3 30.3 TOTAL US 13.8 1.5 15.3 14.0 BBB €206.9bn France 2.2 5.3 7.5 7.6 12 (12) UK 3.
Slide 52: Fixed-income portfolio Governments/semi-government
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Governments/semi-government Rating structure % Regional breakdown % BB AAA Without With Total 1 (1) 45 (46) policyholder 30.6. 31.12. participation 2015 2014 BBB 11 (11) Germany 5.1 22.9 28.0 29.6 TOTAL US 16.3 1.1 17.4 15.6 A €106.5bn Supra- 1.4 5.4 6.8 7.
Slide 53: Fixed-income portfolio Pfandbriefe/covered bonds
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Pfandbriefe/covered bonds Rating structure % Regional breakdown % BBB AAA 30.6.2015 31.12.2014 3 (3) 63 (61) Germany 34.8 34.7 France 18.7 18.6 UK 8.3 8.4 Netherlands 7.2 6.8 A TOTAL Spain 5.9 6.2 9 (11) €52.1bn Sweden 5.8 5.9 Norway 5.5 5.5 Ireland 3.0 3.1
Slide 54: Fixed-income portfolio Corporate bonds
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Corporate bonds (excluding bank bonds) Rating structure % Sector breakdown % <BB and NR AAA 30.6. 31.12. 4 (2) 1 (1) 2015 2014 Utilities 22.0 22.3 BB TOTAL AA Industrial goods and services 12.1 12.1 12 (11) 6 (6) €21.2bn Oil and gas 11.9 12.2 Telecommunicat
Slide 55: Fixed-income portfolio Bank bonds
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Bank bonds Rating structure % Regional breakdown % <BB and NR AAA Total 4 (5) 1 (1) Senior Sub- Loss- 30.6. 31.12. bonds ordinated bearing 2015 2014 US 27.2 4.4 0.4 32.0 29.0 Germany 20.0 3.2 3.0 26.2 29.2 BB TOTAL AA UK 8.3 2.4 0.2 10.9 12.0 9 (5) 8 (8) Ir
Slide 56: Fixed-income portfolio Structured products
Backup: Investments Fixed-income portfolio Structured products Structured products portfolio (at market values): Breakdown by rating and region €m Rating Region USA + Market- AAA AA A BBB <BBB NR RoW Europe Total to-par ABS Consumer-related ABS1 353 292 72 5 – – 328 394 722 101% Corporate-related AB
Slide 57: Sensitivities to interest rates, spreads and equity markets
Backup: Investments Sensitivities to interest rates, spreads and equity markets Sensitivity to risk-free interest rates – Basis points –50 –25 +50 +100 Change in gross market value (€bn) +8.4 +4.1 –7.7 –14.6 Change in on-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn)1 +2.0 +1.0 –1.9 –3.6 Change in off-balance-sh
Slide 58: On- and off-balance-sheet reserves (gross)
Backup: Investments On- and off-balance-sheet reserves (gross) €m 31.12. 31.12. 31.12. 31.3. 30.6. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Market value of investments 218,047 210,431 235,849 251,283 236,220 Total reserves 22,478 15,192 31,470 39,499 26,647 On-balance-sheet reserves Fixed-interest securities 9,980
Slide 59: On-balance-sheet reserves
Backup: Investments On-balance-sheet reserves On-balance-sheet reserves €m 30.6. Change 2015 Q2 Investments afs 11,317 –7,617 Valuation at equity 99 –23 Unconsolidated affiliated enterprises 174 –9 Cash flow hedging 28 –6 Total on-balance-sheet reserves (gross) 11,618 –7,655 Provision for deferred p
Slide 60: Off-balance-sheet reserves
Backup: Investments Off-balance-sheet reserves Off-balance-sheet reserves €m 30.6. Change 2015 Q2 Real estate1 2,078 23 Loans and investments (held to maturity) 12,526 –5,190 Associates 425 –30 Total off-balance-sheet reserves (gross) 15,029 –5,197 as if Provision for deferred premium refunds –11,04
Slide 61: Development of shares in circulation
Backup: Shareholder information Development of shares in circulation 31.12. Acquisition of own Retirement of own 30.6. Shares (millions) 2014 shares in H1 2015 shares in H1 2015 2015 Shares in circulation 168.5 –2.2 – 166.3 Own shares held 4.4 2.2 –6.1 0.5 Total 172.9 – –6.1 166.8 Weighted average n
Slide 62: Financial calendar
Backup: Shareholder information Financial calendar 2015 5 November Interim report as at 30 September 2015 30 November Briefing on Solvency II, London 2016 4 February Preliminary key figures 2015 and renewals Balance sheet press conference for 2015 financial statements 16 March Analysts' conference i
Slide 63: For information, please contact
Backup: Shareholder information For information, please contact INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM Christian Becker-Hussong Thorsten Dzuba Christine Franziszi Head of Investor & Rating Agency Relations Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-8030 Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3875 Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3910 E-mail: tdzuba@munichre.com E-mail
Slide 64: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on current assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the forward-looking statements given here and the a