Tryg A/s · OMXCOP:TRYG
Tryg A/s — Tryg A/S Ord New — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
58 slides from Tryg A/s's earnings presentation, Jan 23, 2025
Slide 1: Q4 2024 results
Q4 2024 results Investor presentation 1
Slide 2: Contents and disclaimer
Contents • Highlights Q4 2024 03 • Insurance revenue and portfolio 09 Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made • Claims developments 13 by and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statement
Slide 3: Financial highlights Q4 2024
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 Financial highlights Q4 2024 Insurance service result of DKK 1,708m Combined ratio of 82.5% Investment result of DKK -265m Q4 DPS of DKK 1.95, solvency ratio 196% Ordinary dividend Claims ratio Expense ratio 1,654 1,708 82.4 82.5 7.80 7.40 7.00 13.5 13.3 146 6.29 1.95 4.28 1.9
Slide 4: Customer highlights Q4 2024
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 Customer highlights Q4 2024 Customer satisfaction KPI Group Group Q4 2023 Q4 2024 86 87 95 94 92 92 92 90 86 86 87 85 85 84 84 83 85 82 80 76 76 75 70 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Online touchpoints Phone touchpoints Meetings Claims process Onboarding process (PL) R
Slide 5: Higher ISR driven by price adjustments, improved underlying performance and lower large claims
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 Higher ISR driven by price adjustments, improved underlying performance and lower large claims Private Insurance service result and combined ratio DKKm 84.0 83.5 991 1,095 • The ISR was driven by a lower level of weather-related claims and higher run-off result to Q4 2023 • Pr
Slide 6: Group insurance service result and geographical split
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 Group insurance service result and geographical split Denmark Insurance service result and combined ratio Group insurance service result walk DKKm DKKm 899 82.8 761 80.3 Q4 2024 1,708 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 1,654 Run-off Q4 2024: DKK 134m or 2.9 % (Q4 2023 : DKK 55m o
Slide 7: RSA Scandinavia synergies totalled DKK 930m as per year-end 2024
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 RSA Scandinavia synergies totalled DKK 930m as per year-end 2024 Full Synergies from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition totalled DKK 930m Synergies from RSA Scandinavia and Alka exceeded initial targets 930 Slides from R2.7 presentation on November 2020 373 221 184 153 Admin & di
Slide 8: Full delivery on 2024 financial targets
1 | HIGHLIGHTS Q4 2024 Full delivery on 2024 financial targets Key Performance Targets Results Indicators 2024 2024 Combined ratio ≤ 82% 81% Insurance service result DKK 7.2-7.6bn DKK 7,324m Return on own funds (ROOF) ≥ 25% 34.1% Expense ratio ~13.5% 13.5% Customer satisfaction 88 87 Reduced CO2 emi
Slide 9: Insurance revenue and portfolio
Insurance revenue and portfolio 26-09-2023 9
Slide 10: Insurance revenue up 3.6% in local currencies compared to Q4 2023
2 | REVENUE AND PORTFOLIO Insurance revenue up 3.6% in local currencies compared to Q4 2023 Local currencies growth (%) Local currencies growth (%) Insurance revenue growth by segment Q4 2024 (local currencies) DKKm Q4 2023 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 Private 6,203 6,621 7.7 6.8 6.8 4.3 3.6 Commercial 2
Slide 11: Rate increases between 2022-2024 for the Private segment
2 | REVENUE AND PORTFOLIO Rate increases1 between 2022-2024 for the Private segment Property (House and content) 15% Tryg continues to monitor inflation and exercise price adjustments 10% across markets and line of business. 5% Portfolios are carefully analysed to 0% selectively adjust prices when D
Slide 12: Customer retention remains broadly stable
2 | REVENUE AND PORTFOLIO Customer retention remains broadly stable Private retention 89 89 87 87 87 87 DK NO SE 94 92 90 88 86 DK NO SE 84 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Commercial retention 87
Slide 13: Claims developments
Claims developments
Slide 14: Underlying claims ratio improved 20 basis points for the Group
3 | CLAIMS DEVELOPMENTS Underlying claims ratio1 improved 20 basis points for the Group Group underlying claims ratio -20 bps • Group underlying claims ratio at 69.3% an improvement of 20 basis points compared 69.5 72.3 69.3 66.7 67.2 to Q4 2023 • Group underlying claims ratio generally supported by
Slide 15: Large claims, weather claims, discounting and run-off
3 | CLAIMS DEVELOPMENTS Large claims, weather claims, discounting and run-off Large claims net Weather claims net DKKm DKKm 1,400 1,400 1,274 Expected annual Expected annual 1,142 1,200 level DKK 800m 1,200 level DKK 800m 1,001 933 1,000 1,000 800 800 555 500 600 457 600 428 370 400 591 400 318 272
Slide 16: Investment activities
Investment activities — - ~ = _ ted
Slide 17: Investments – split in match and free portfolio
4 | INVESTMENTS ACTIVITIES Investments – split in match and free portfolio Match portfolio Scandinavian covered bonds, DKK 44bn Free portfolio assets split, DKK 17bn 22 13.3 13 9 3.3 Denmark Sweden Norway Covered and Government Bonds Real Estate 5 Total Investments, 100% DKK 61bn Covered and Governm
Slide 18: Tryg investment return – low risk remains key
4 | INVESTMENTS ACTIVITIES Tryg investment return – low risk remains key Key figures investments (DKKm) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Group fixed income portfolio, approx. DKK 46bn, rating split (%) Free portfolio -73 397 93 Match portfolio 56 34 Other financial income and expenses -248 -285 4 2 0 0 1 AAA AA A BB
Slide 19: Solvency & Expenses
Solvency & Expenses
Slide 20: Solvency position Q4 2024
4 | SOLVENCY AND EXPENSES Solvency position Q4 2024 Solvency position Own funds walk 15,490 946 • Solvency ratio based on the Partial Internal Model is 196 (Q3 2024: 202). 54 13,239 2,952 -1,202 -49 1,634 -2,000 2,929 Own Funds (OF) are primarily impacted by 1,612 • Operating earnings • Dividends 10
Slide 21: Solvency ratio historical development
4 | SOLVENCY AND EXPENSES Solvency ratio historical development Solvency ratio historical development, % Approval of new partial internal model and dividend decision for 2020 moved to year-end as opposed to quarterly Own funds and SCR now including RSA 214 198 201 200 199 202 193 195 194 197 195 196
Slide 22: Solvency ratio sensitivities
4 | SOLVENCY AND EXPENSES Solvency ratio sensitivities Solvency ratio sensitivities, % 196 201 199 210 195 196 195 196 201 190 192 181 190 Q4 + 20% - 20% + 100 bps - 100 bps + 100 bps - 100 bps + 100 bps - 100 bps + 20% - 20% + 20% - 20% 2024 Property Interest Spread Spread NOK/DKK SEK/DKK (Covered)
Slide 23: Expense ratio of 13.3 impacted by tight cost control and RSA synergies
4 | SOLVENCY AND EXPENSES Expense ratio of 13.3 impacted by tight cost control and RSA synergies Expense ratio Key drivers in Q4 2024 15 • Expense ratio of 13.3% supported by tight cost control and positive impact from the RSA Scandinavia synergies 14 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.1 13 • Investme
Slide 24: Financial targets
Financial targets
Slide 25: Strategic focus towards 2027 anchored around three strategic pillars
5 | Financial targets 4 Strategic focus towards 2027 is anchored around three strategic pillars Customer experience ┃ Corporate responsibility ┃ Data and technology ┃ People and culture 25
Slide 26: Financial and strategic targets for 2027
5 | Financial targets 4 Financial and strategic targets for 2027 26
Slide 27: It is important to know your investment case
5 | Financial targets 4 It is important to know your investment case ”Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.” John D. Rockefeller 27
Slide 28: Q4 2024 roadshows & conferences
6 | ROADSHOWS & CONFERENCES Q4 2024 roadshows & conferences Date Event Participants from Tryg Arranged by Johan Kirstein Brammer, CEO, Allan Kragh Thaysen, CFO, Mikael Kärrsten, CTO, 23/01/2025 Copenhagen roadshow Danske Bank Investor Relations 24/01/2025 London Roadshow Johan Kirstein Brammer, CEO,
Slide 29: Investor Relations
Investor Relations Gianandrea Roberti Peter Brondt Khoi Nguyen Frederik Brink Ilze Karahona Tobias Andersen Head of Investor Relations, SVP Director, Investor Relations Senior Analyst, Investor Relations Senior Analyst, Investor Relations Project manager, Investor Relations Analyst, Investor Relatio
Slide 30: Background material
Background material
Slide 31: Tryg at a glance
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Tryg at a glance About Tryg Insurance revenue split by products Q4 2024 • Tryg goes back to 18th century. 8% Motor • Very strong brand position especially in Denmark. 31% Workers' comp 23% Health & accident Liability • Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Fire &
Slide 32: Insurance revenue split by geography
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Insurance revenue split by geography DK: Insurance revenue by products 2024 SE: Insurance revenue by products 2024 1% 9% Motor 20% 27% 32% Motor Workers comp Health and accident 25% Health and accident Liability Liability 14% Fire & property - private 5% Fire & property - pri
Slide 33: Reserves and run-off split by line of business
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Reserves and run-off split by line of business Reserves by products 2024 Run-off net by products Q4 2024, DKKm 5% 5% 233 8% 24% Motor Motor Workers comp 65 74 84 Workers comp 7% 53 Health and accident Health and accident 4 Liability Liability Fire & property - private 0 Fire
Slide 34: The run-off cycle
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL The run-off cycle Run-off cycle: Run-off development ◦ Initial assessment of the claims was DKK 18,000 but Tryg reserved 3 years for DKK 20,000 adding some conservatism to best estimate. 2,000 Run-off: 2,000+ ◦ At the time of setting up the claims reserves and booking the cla
Slide 35: Combined ratio development, 2015 – 2024
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Combined ratio development, 2015 – 2024 Combined ratio development 86.8 86.7 84.4 85.1 85.1 84.5 84.5 85.0 84.0 83.2 82.8 81.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10Y avg. 5Y avg. IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 17 IFRS 17 35
Slide 36: Shareholder remuneration
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Shareholder remuneration Dividend per share and total share buy-back (DKK) Tryg initiated a DKK 5bn buyback following the sale of Codan DK to Alm. Brand Tryg initiated a DKK 2bn 1.7 buyback at the CMD in 1.95 Tryg initiated a London DKK 1bn buyback after Q3 2023 1.95 5,000 7.
Slide 37: Market share of the Scandinavian insurance market
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Market share of the Scandinavian insurance market Scandinavia market share (as at Q4 2022) Denmark market share (as at Q3-2023) 18% 23% Tryg 24% Tryg Topdanmark 40% If If Topdanmark Gjensidige 15% 4% Länsforsikringar Alm. Brand 5% Gjensidige 15% LB Forsikring 5% Other GF fors
Slide 38: Distribution of new sales 2024
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Distribution of new sales 2024 Distribution in the Scandinavian market Private Distribution in the Scandinavian markets differs from many other insurance markets. 4% 4% • Direct distribution is the main channel for Private Franchise 7% and Commercial 19% 14% 27% Sales agents
Slide 39: Things that you may not know
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Things that you may not know Information: • Scandinavian economies have been performing better than most European countries for a long-time. The GDP growth y/y was approx. 2%, and unemployment rates remains much lower than European averages (2-3% in DK and NO). Government ind
Slide 40: Tryg reinsurance program
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Tryg reinsurance program Details • Tryg has issued a per risk reinsurance program covering single large property claims. The maximum net exposure to a single claim is DKK 200m. If a claim exceeds DKK 200m the reinsurers will cover the part above DKK 200m. When a claim occurs
Slide 41: IBM study from 2007, probably little has changed
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL IBM study from 2007, probably little has changed Danish customers either completely or strongly agree Overall I am very satisfied with the services of my insurance company My insurance agent only sold me insurance coverage that I really needed My present insurance coverage of
Slide 42: TryghedsGruppen and its member bonus
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL TryghedsGruppen and its member bonus TryghedsGruppen Bonus Bonus has a positive effect on retention ‘I expect to be in Tryg next year’ Denmark's ‘biggest’ family 8% 8% 6% 6% Have heard about member bonus 90% 5% Have not heard about member Bonus 79% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Tr
Slide 43: Organisational and remuneration structure
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Organisational and remuneration structure Remuneration structure The Executive Board are remunerated according to Tryg’s remuneration policy: • Base salary ◦ And in addition to the base salary a fixed car CEO allowance and other standard benefits Johan Kirstein Brammer • Pens
Slide 44: Tryg embraces its vital role in society
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Tryg embraces its vital role in society, working with communities to make it easier to be ‘tryg’ 44
Slide 45: ESG performance on 2024 targets
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL ESG performance on 2024 targets Sustainable insurance Responsible company Green workplace Prevention and claims handling Responsible procurement Responsible investment1 Diverse workplace Climate impact 2024 targets 2024 2024 targets 2024 2024 targets 2024 2024 targets 2024 •
Slide 46: Driving sustainable change from within core business - 2027 focus areas
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Tryg is driving sustainable change from within core business - 2027 focus areas 46
Slide 47: Climate action across its value chain
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Climate action: Tryg continues to drive the green transition across its value chain Climate emission reduction targets Claims handling Tryg has defined new climate targets based on conclusive scientific Preservation and responsible use of resources continues to be a top evide
Slide 48: Future fitting Tryg's business through climate adaptation and prevention
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Future fitting Tryg’s business through climate adaptation and prevention 2027 ambition ~60% of all product categories in scope to be climate- adapted, in accordance with the EU Taxonomy Ambition is ~25pp above current baseline 48
Slide 49: ESG ratings
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL ESG ratings 49
Slide 50: Reported figures Q4 2024 and Consensus 2024-2026
7 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Reported figures Q4 2024 and Consensus 2024-2026 Q4 2024 2024 2025 2026 DKKm reported Consensus Consensus Consensus Insurance revenue 9,734 38,619 40,351 41,987 Insurance service result 1,708 7,368 7,571 7,946 Net investment result -265 702 497 496 Other income and costs -409
Slide 51: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 52: Group
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Group Insurance revenue (DKKm) Gross premiums Combined ratio (%) 100.0 50,000 86.8 84.3 83.2 * 82.8 81.0 40,000 37,379 * 37,135 38,596 80.0 60.0 30,000 25,369 23,442 40.0 20,000 20.0 10,000 0.0 — 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Claims ratio, net of reinsuran
Slide 53: Private
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Private Insurance revenue (DKKm) Gross premiums Combined ratio (%) 100 30,000 26,100 83.9 84.1 82.3 * 84.5 82.8 24,453 * 24,455 80 20,000 60 16,554 15,096 40 10,000 20 0 — 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Claims ratio, net of reinsurance (%) Expense % ratio (
Slide 54: Commercial
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Commercial* Insurance revenue (DKKm) Gross premiums Combined ratio (%) 100 12,500 88.4 82.9 81.9 * 78.1 75.4 9,295 * 9,588 80 10,000 9,178 60 7,500 4,978 5,350 40 5,000 20 2,500 0 — 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Claims ratio, net of reinsurance (%) Expense
Slide 55: Corporate
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Corporate* Insurance revenue (DKKm) Gross premiums Combined ratio (%) 120 4,000 3,631 * 3,502 3,366 3,464 97.4 100 87.6 92.3 * 2,908 83.2 83.8 3,000 80 60 2,000 40 1,000 20 0 — 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Claims ratio, net of reinsurance (%) Expense % ra
Slide 56: Geographical combined ratio
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Geographical combined ratio Denmark % (%) Sweden (%) 100 100 85.0 88.1 86.8 87.2 80.5 81.6 81.7 77.2 78.2 80 72.2 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Norway (%) 100 92.3 91.7 92.3 86.8 85.0 80 60 40 20 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 56
Slide 57: Tryg has a long and proud history
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Tryg has a long and proud history, with the 2021 RSA acquisition pushing the 2022 boundaries even further Demerger 1 April Completed separation of RSA Scandinavia into 2018 DK, NO, SE 2005 TrygVesta is listed Tryg receives the final on the OMX Nordic approval of the Alka 1731
Slide 58: Macroeconomic forecasts
8 | BACKGROUND MATERIAL Macroeconomic forecasts Denmark Norway % 2024 (forecast) 2025 (forecast) 2026 (forecast) % 2024 (forecast) 2025 (forecast) 2026 (forecast) GDP growth 3.0 2.5 2.3 GDP growth 0.9 1.9 1.7 Private consumption 0.2 1.9 2.3 Private consumption 1.3 3.0 2.5 Unemployment 2.9 3.1 3.1 Un