Portland General Electric Co · NYSE:POR
Portland General Electric — Corporate Update (June 2008)
40 slides from Portland General Electric's corporate update, Jun 12, 2008
Slide 1: Integrated Resource Plan 2009
Integrated Resource Plan 2009 1st Stakeholder Presentation & Discussion June 12, 2008 1
Slide 2: Today's Topics
Today’s Topics • Renewable RFP Update • IRP Process Overview • IRP Resource Mix and Resource Need Update • Supply Assumptions & Issues • IRP Study Content and Stakeholder Review 2
Slide 3: Status of Renewables RFP
Status of Renewables RFP • Request for up to 218 MWa of new renewables of all types and sizes > 2 MW. • For delivery starting no later than January, 2014. • Goal is to be compliant, via physical resources, with the 2015 RES requirement by Jan. 2014. • PGE will consider PPAs, ownership offers and hyb
Slide 4: Preliminary Bid Results
Preliminary Bid Results Bids received June 4, 2008 38 Total Bids Received – Approximately 3000 MW – Energy Value = approximately 1000 aMW Technologies Represented – Wind – Solar – Geothermal – Biomass – Wave Expected Timeline: – Initial short-list: July / August 2008 – Final short-list: September 20
Slide 5: RFP Bid Pool Composition
RFP Bid Pool Composition 5.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.9% Biomass Solar Geothermal Wind Wave 3.4% 88.6% 2.6% RFP Bid Pool - aMW 3.5% 0.3% Biomass Solar Geothermal Wind Wave 90.3% RFP Bid Pool - Nameplate MW 5
Slide 6: IRP Process Overview
IRP Process Overview • Proposed Timeline • IRP Scope • Portfolio Considerations – Quantifiable vs. Qualitative • IRP Team 6
Slide 7: IRP Proposed Timeline
IRP Proposed Timeline June 12 Initial Public Meeting Aug. 2008 Second Public Meeting (Assumptions, portfolios and futures to test) Aug. 2008 Wind Integration Technical Meeting Oct. 2008 Third Public Meeting (Study results) Feb. 2009 Final Public Meeting (Portfolio results, Action Plan recommendation
Slide 8: Scope of Integrated Resource Planning
Scope of Integrated Resource Planning Fuel Transportation Generation Fuel Extraction (if applicable) (if applicable) Demand Response Energy Efficiency Transmission & Distribution 8 End use
Slide 9: Modifications for this IRP
Modifications for this IRP • Extend the Planning Horizon. • Update major planning components: – New base case CO2 tax – Capital costs for all technologies – PGE load / resource balance and resulting need for Energy & Capacity resources – Fuel cost forecasts – Transmission availability • Develop benc
Slide 10: Value, Risk and Resource Choices: 2009 IRP
Value, Risk and Resource Choices: 2009 IRP • Technology • Resource life • Shaft risk (size) • Fuel supply term • Location • Fixed vs. variable • Fuel supply / (cost structure) source • Fuel price volatility Price Stability Reliability Portfolio Value P & Risk Environment Mix • Contract vs. owned Cos
Slide 11: The IRP Team
The IRP Team • Power Supply Resource Strategy • Structuring and Origination • Power Supply Engineering Services • Financial Analysis • Rates and Regulatory Affairs • Customer Energy Resources • Outside Consultants 11
Slide 12: IRP Resource Mix and Resource Need Update
IRP Resource Mix and Resource Need Update • Existing Resources • Resource Mix after current RFP • Planning Horizon • Load Resource Balance / Need for New Supply 12
Slide 13: Power Supply -- Hydro Generation
Power Supply -- Hydro Generation Diversity of river systems –13 plants on 5 rivers Priest Rapids Wanapum Rocky Reach Wells (incl. contracts) (Mid-Columbia contracts) Columbia River High reliability Portland Bull Run (contract) (Decommissioned) –95%+ availability Portland Sandy River Deschutes River
Slide 14: Power Supply -- Thermal Generation
Power Supply -- Thermal Generation • Boardman and Colstrip Port Westward 3 & 4 – Base load low cost coal units Colstrip 3 & 4 Montana • Port Westward, Beaver (Gas/Oil) Coyote Springs #1, Trojan (Decommissioning) Columbia River Beaver – Natural gas fired flexible resources Portland Sandy River Coyote
Slide 15: Power Supply -- Renewable Generation
Power Supply -- Renewable Generation • Biglow Canyon Biglow Canyon 450 MW wind farm to be Klondike II developed in 3 phases – Sherman County (152 Vansycle Ridge MWa) - 1st phase (125 MW) Beaver (Gas/Oil) online Dec. 2007 Columbia River • Klondike II Portland Sandy River 75 MW wind farm – Sherman Cou
Slide 16: Load/Resource Balance Update
Load/Resource Balance Update • Includes remaining build-out of Biglow Canyon Phase II/III (325 MW, 114 MWa in 2009/2010) • We assume new acquisitions from the current RFP of 218 MWa • New load forecast: long-term growth rate reduced from 2.2% per year to 2.0%. • Load forecast fell by 20 MWa short-te
Slide 17: 2014 Power Supply Portfolio with current RFP Actions
2014 Power Supply Portfolio with current RFP Actions Energy as a % of Retail Load Non-Hydro PPAs 4% Market (Shortfall) 21% Hyrdro (PGE and Contract) 12% Natural Gas Renewables 24% 18% Includes 50 MWa of Coal Pelton - 21% Round Butte Low Impact Hydro 2014 Estimated Average 17 Retail Load: 2,681 MWa
Slide 18: Planning Horizon
Planning Horizon • Loads from 2010 to 2030 • Energy Efficiency and Demand Response from 2010 to 2030 (to the extent practical) • New Resources (Energy & Capacity) from 2010 to 2020 – 2020 chosen because it is the next benchmark year for Renewable Energy Standard – It also is a benchmark year for som
Slide 19: Planning Horizon (cont.)
Planning Horizon (cont.) Planning Horizon for Analysis Components New Resources 11 Loss of Load Probability 11 Loads 20 EE 20 DR 20 Plant Dispatch 31 Fixed Costs 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 Years from Jan. 2010 19
Slide 20: Loads and Load Uncertainties
Loads and Load Uncertainties Retail Load Forecast and “Jaws” 2005-2030 Energy Delivery Forecast 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Mwa 2,500 2,000 1,500 High 1,000 Low 500 Base - 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Average Annual Growth Rates – 2.67% (High) 1.97% (Base) and 1
Slide 21: PGE's Resource Need: Energy
PGE’s Resource Need: Energy Future Resource Needs 2009 to 2030 Resource Adequacy Basis: Normal Hydro 4,000 Over Overthe the 3,500 Retail Load IRP IRP planning planning 3,000 horizon horizonwewe are deficit are deficit Annual Average Availability MWa energy energytoto 2,500 576 MWa 1,141 MWa 1,848 MW
Slide 22: PGE's Resource Need: Capacity
PGE’s Resource Need: Capacity Future Resource Needs 2009 to 2030 7,000 1-in-2 P eak R etail Load + 12% R eserves Retail Load & Resource Balance 6,000 Winter Winterpeak peak 5,000 Like Likeenergy, energy,weweare arealso also deficit deficit capacity to meetour capacity to meet our Megawatts (MW) 1,52
Slide 23: RES Targets & Forecast
RES Targets & Forecast PGE RES Progress • Well positioned to 1,800 RES Renewables w/ current actions meet 2011 RES Compliance Target 1,600 RES Target @ 5%, 15%, 20%, 25% Avg. Ann. Remaining Resource Gap • 2008 Renewable 1,400 (After Biglow & 218 Mwa RFP) RFP expected to 1,200 add up to 218 aMW 1,000
Slide 24: Supply Assumptions and Issues
Supply Assumptions and Issues • Resources to evaluate in Portfolio Analysis • Inclusion of PGE Benchmark Resources • Major changes since last IRP • Gas prices vs. last IRP • Discussion: Environmental Policy • Discussion: Planning Horizon 24
Slide 25: Supply-Side Resources Included in Portfolio Analysis
Supply-Side Resources Included in Portfolio Analysis Renewables: • Traditional: Wind, biomass, geothermal • New: solar PV (distributed & central), solar thermal (central), coastal wave Thermal: • Traditional: CCCT (gas-fired), pulverized coal • New: Out-of-state nuclear, coal gasification with carbo
Slide 26: PGE Benchmark Resources
PGE Benchmark Resources • PGE will include both an Energy and Capacity benchmark resource in this IRP. • The Energy benchmark will be a site-specific G-class CCCT. • The Capacity benchmark will be a flexible SCCT with the dual purpose of meeting peak needs and load following for variable wind. 26
Slide 27: Major Assumption Changes Since Last IRP
Major Assumption Changes Since Last IRP • Capital costs are up substantially (on the order of 50% or more) for ALL technologies, due both to basic materials and constrained labor. • This is in turn due in part to high demand in rapidly expanding economies in China & India. • G-Class CTs have almost
Slide 28: Increase in Gas Forecast
Increase in Gas Forecast IRP - Long Term Forecast: Sumas Hub Price October 2007 vs May 2008 Real Levelized 2006$/MMBTU Oct-07 May-08 High Gas $ 9.1 $ 11.3 Reference Case $ 6.5 $ 8.0 Low Gas $ 5.1 $ 6.7 Nominal $/mmbtu Oct 2007 May 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Slide 29: Issues for Discussion – Environmental Policy
Issues for Discussion – Environmental Policy • What base case CO2 cost and timing should PGE use? • Should PGE develop a portfolio which is not 2020 RES-compliant in order to show compliance cost? • Should PGE always assume RPS compliance in the entire WECC? 29
Slide 30: Issues for Discussion (cont.) – Planning Horizon
Issues for Discussion (cont.) – Planning Horizon Hypothetical Supply Actions through 2020 4,000 3,500 Retail Load Market Purchases 3,000 Annual Average Availability MWa Hypothetical Supply Actions 2,500 2,000 218 Mwa- RFP Long-term Contracts 1,500 Generation 1,000 (Theoretical Availability, Beaver u
Slide 31: IRP Study Content and Stakeholder Review
IRP Study Content and Stakeholder Review • Initiatives & studies PGE is undertaking • New topics • Wind Integration Study status • Complying with Order Conditions & Guidelines 31
Slide 32: Initiatives and Studies for the IRP
Initiatives and Studies for the IRP Initiatives: • System-wide AMI implementation by 2010 • Demand Response RFP: Late Fall 2008 (after DR Technical Assessment) • Curtailment tariff Studies: • DR Technical Assessment: Fall 2008 • Updated EE Assessment (via ETO) • Wind Integration: Summer 2008 • Solar
Slide 33: New to this IRP
New to this IRP • Develop a portfolio that achieves (for PGE emissions) the Governor’s 2020 reduction goals. • Implement new CO2 Guidelines (currently still draft). • Present Boardman BART and mercury emissions compliance assessment. • Price response for PGE loads, substitution of natural gas for co
Slide 34: Wind Integration Study -- Status
Wind Integration Study -- Status Dispatch model build-out underway Utilizing Technical Review Committee (TRC) to vet methodology and key assumptions – Initial presentation made to TRC at AWEA Conference – June 2008 – RNP participating in TRC – TRC also comprised of UWIG, NREL and AWEA Staff represen
Slide 35: Modeling and Analytical Approach
Modeling and Analytical Approach • For the most part, PGE’s modeling and analytical approach was well-received last IRP. • PGE is exploring hiring a 3rd party IRP expert to independently assess best practices for portfolio analysis and risk assessment. • PGE will continue to use the Aurora model, wh
Slide 36: Feedback & Suggestions
Feedback & Suggestions • As in the prior IRP, PGE intends to conduct an open and transparent review process – we believe your feedback and suggestions are vital to the quality of the analysis. • To facilitate more timely and better documented feedback, we will request informal written comments along
Slide 37: Complying with the Conditions of Order 08-246
Complying with the Conditions of Order 08-246 Condition PGE Proposed Action 1. 20 Yr. Planning Horizon for Portfolio Analysis We propose a planning horizon from 2010 to 2060 (51 years) Use 20 Year Load Forecast Using PGE load forecast from 2010 to 2030 (21 years) Determine capacity & energy from exi
Slide 38: Complying with the Conditions of Order 08-246 (Cont.)
Complying with the Conditions of Order 08-246 (Cont.) Condition PGE Proposed Action See discussion in #1 above. Note that Action Plan horizon will be 4. Trans. Needs, Cost, Timing for Action Plan shorter than Portfolio planning horizon. PGE will also provide progress updates for BPA Open Season and
Slide 39: Complying with IRP Guidelines
Complying with IRP Guidelines • PGE will develop a spreadsheet summarizing each Guideline and how PGE intends to meet it. • This also includes findings in the Order 08-246 not specifically called out in the conditions, such as expanded LOLP analysis. • PGE requests immediate and direct feedback wher
Slide 40: Next Steps
Next Steps • Next meeting will be in August. • Please call with questions, concerns, or any follow up. Thank You! 40
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