Wartsila Oyj Abp · OMXHEX:WRT1V
Wartsila Oyj Abp — Wärtsilä — Investor Presentation (September 2015)
22 slides from Wartsila Oyj Abp's investor presentation, September 2015
Slide 1: Shipping Scenarios 2030
N SHIPPING SCENARIOS 2030 a Cc GLOBAL SCENARIOS OF SHIPPING IN 2030 WARTSILA
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This release includes various forward-looking statements regarding potential risks, conditions and Wärtsilä’s business, as assumed by Wärtsilä Corporation as of the date of this release. The forward-looking statements are based on unclear and unknown factors, risks, events and uncertainti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Scenarios: Why, what and how? Three scenarios • Rough Seas • Yellow River • Open Oceans Summary 3
Slide 4: Introduction
Introduction To support our strategy work and provide a foundation for finding ways of being prepared for the future, together with the industry. Three challenging and different, yet plausible, scenarios about what shipping could look like in the year 2030. By combining expert input, quality researc
Slide 5: Scenarios
Scenarios Scenarios are • Stories describing alternative, plausible futures and how they might come about • A method of making sense of a complex and changing environment • A valuable tool for enhancing strategic decision-making by challenging conventional modes of thinking 5
Slide 6: The framework
The framework Geopolitics • Time horizon International finance Globalisation • What could shape the Energy Macroeconomics Climate future: uncertainties and certainties Legislation Environment • Two certainties: Social values Demographics – Shipping will continue to be part Technology Suppliers NGOs
Slide 7: Key uncertainties lay the groundwork for scenarios
Key uncertainties lay the groundwork for scenarios Scrambled The key uncertainties geopolitics refined into five Neo-colonialistic Global action approach creates against climate dimensions: friction change 1 Trade and economic growth National Free trade and governments flow of capital, 2 Response to
Slide 8: Three scenarios
Three scenarios • Scarcity of resources is predominant • Climate change adds further stress • Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free markets • Wealth is divided unequally among nations, resulting in tension • China dominates the global arena • Resource-intensive manufacturing has moved
Slide 9: Rough Seas
The first convoy of ships Rough Seas carrying water sails from Russia to India, protected by Navy escorts.
Slide 10: Rough Seas
Rough Seas In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of energy, water and food is predominant. Climate change adds further stress. • Logistics chain optimised regionally • Fleets partly nationalised • Changed goods flow, reduced container traffic • New trade routes • Increased need for armed escorts 10
Slide 11: Causes and effects
Causes and effects Water and food scarcity Relocation of industrial Energy Friction GDP growth activities and scarcity new trade patterns Bilateral agreements and protectionism Self-sustained communities positive impact negative impact 11
Slide 12: Timeline
Timeline EU declares ownership Megacities are being of local fresh water dismantled in India and resources. China. China and India name Economists: the EU and food scarcity the most important issue on their Brazil overtakes China in the USA have not yet Gulf States announce steel production. WHO pub
Slide 13: Yellow River
A Chinese containership – one of many – is crossing the Indian Ocean on its way from Dar es Yellow River Salaam to Shanghai, loaded with manufactured goods.
Slide 14: Yellow River
Yellow River In Yellow River, China dominates the global arena, economically, geopolitically and in shipping. • Most big shipping companies Chinese-owned • New ports in Africa, Eastern Russia and India • Chinese ports sophisticated logistics centres • Manufacturing to Africa and other Asian countrie
Slide 15: Causes and effects
Causes and effects Relative Growth in slowdown in Chinese Western economy economies Strong Alliances internal create Chinese Shift in consumption “satellite states” balance of and intra-Asian especially in power Africa trade Challenges in Measures to governance within counterbalance the Chinese sphe
Slide 16: Timeline
Timeline The Economist reports China and India remove all obstacles to free trade and commercial on a wave of EU operations between their countries. The EU introduces The price for oil and gas in the trade between China and manufacturers pulling protectionist taxes for Chinese goods and Social tensi
Slide 17: Open Oceans
The world’s first floating desalination unit, powered Open Oceans entirely with renewable energy, is launched to serve the city of Mumbai.
Slide 18: Open Oceans
Open Oceans The world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalized one. Global mega-corporations boost GDP growth and megacities have gained power over the nation state. • Shipping a component within optimised and integrated logistic systems • Ships simply tools in the process • Goods transported between
Slide 19: Causes and effects
Causes and effects Protection of commercial GDP growth interests Agreements Growth Growth of on climate and of global megacities trade corporations Governments Technology for focus on efficiency and corporate sustainability governance positive impact negative impact 19
Slide 20: Timeline
Timeline E.ON brings Saharan solar power to Europe. A Doha round meets Investments into waste CorpWatch is created under WTO to monitor in Dubai; agrees on management and recycling grow rapidly. the 100 biggest corporations in the world. Influence of corporations removing key tariffs. increases whil
Slide 21: Summary
Summary Share your views, challenge us and give us feedback about the Shipping Scenarios here and now or at www.wartsila.com/shippingscenarios Follow our Twitter feed at www.twitter.com/shipping2030! 21
Slide 22: Contacts
Contacts Andrea Hernandez General Manager, Ship Power Business Intelligence +358107095552 andrea.hernandez@wartsila.com